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Future appears bright for Montreal Canadiens

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10-20-2012, 05:15 PM
  #26
That Habs Fan
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Perezhogin is one of the top-10 scorers in the KHL a lot of years.

Higgins is a 2nd liner on one of the best teams in the league, the Vancouver Canucks.

Sergei K is a 2nd liner on one of the better teams in the league.

Grabovski we traded for valuable assets, 1 season of Robert Lang and good defense prospect Gregory Pateryn.

Latendresse' career was derailed by injuries.

Chipchura is an effective 4th line center on a team much better than the Habs.

O'Byrne is an effective shutdown dman, a 4th dman, on a better team than the Habs.

Overall, it's not our prospects that were bad, it's our asset management. The only well-managed asset in the above list is Mikhail Grabovski.
I wouldn't call the Coyotes or Avalanche better than the Habs, despite what last year's standings say. Definitely not much better.

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10-20-2012, 05:26 PM
  #27
DAChampion
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I wouldn't call the Coyotes or Avalanche better than the Habs, despite what last year's standings say. Definitely not much better.
The Coyotes had 97 points in 82 games and went to their conference final (3rd or 4th bestt team from the top), whereas Montreal had 78 points in 82 games and drafted 3rd or 4th from the bottom. They are a vastly superior team team. Note also that they did this in a stronger division.

Colorado had 88 points in 82 games. They are a marginally better team. They're more similar to the Habs. The Habs were in the weakest eastern conference division and had a bad record in spite of a cupcake schedule, and Colorado were in the weakest western conference division and did bad in spite of bad a bad schedule. Montreal had a goal differential of -14, and Colorado had a goal differential of -12.

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10-20-2012, 05:32 PM
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The Coyotes had 97 points in 82 games and went to their conference final (3rd or 4th bestt team from the top), whereas Montreal had 78 points in 82 games and drafted 3rd or 4th from the bottom. They are a vastly superior team team. Note also that they did this in a stronger division.

Colorado had 88 points in 82 games. They are a marginally better team. They're more similar to the Habs.The Habs were in the weakest eastern conference division and had a bad record in spite of a cupcake schedule, and Colorado were in the weakest western conference division and did bad in spite of bad a bad schedule. Montreal had a goal differential of -14, and Colorado had a goal differential of -12.
The Southeast says hello!

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10-20-2012, 05:35 PM
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The Southeast says hello!
Yes, my mistake.

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10-20-2012, 05:54 PM
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The Coyotes had 97 points in 82 games and went to their conference final (3rd or 4th bestt team from the top), whereas Montreal had 78 points in 82 games and drafted 3rd or 4th from the bottom. They are a vastly superior team team. Note also that they did this in a stronger division.
Note that I mentioned 'despite what last year's standings may indicate'. Montreal was in a year of tumult, one which saw injuries, a coaching change and -at year's end- an overhaul of management.

The season prior, Phoenix finished a mere 3 points above Montreal, and I see our future (both immediate and long term) as equal to theirs:

Smith is good, but Price is elite. Montreal does not have a Yandle but Subban may get there and we have Markov and Gorges with him now, Tinordi, Beaulieu in the wings.

Up front I'd argue that Pacioretty and Plekanec are both better than anything Phoenix has to offer. Cole and Doan bring the same qualities while Eller is projecting to become a player like Hanzal but is simply two years younger.

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10-20-2012, 06:24 PM
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Note that I mentioned 'despite what last year's standings may indicate'. Montreal was in a year of tumult, one which saw injuries, a coaching change and -at year's end- an overhaul of management.

The season prior, Phoenix finished a mere 3 points above Montreal, and I see our future (both immediate and long term) as equal to theirs:

Smith is good, but Price is elite. Montreal does not have a Yandle but Subban may get there and we have Markov and Gorges with him now, Tinordi, Beaulieu in the wings.

Up front I'd argue that Pacioretty and Plekanec are both better than anything Phoenix has to offer. Cole and Doan bring the same qualities while Eller is projecting to become a player like Hanzal but is simply two years younger.
We were a 15th place team in our year of so-called tumult. If everything had gone right, we would have been nowhere near 3rd place.

What your analysis comes down to is that you're more familiar with Montreal's players than those of Phoenix, and thus you can list more positives for Montreal.

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10-22-2012, 10:33 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
We were a 15th place team in our year of so-called tumult. If everything had gone right, we would have been nowhere near 3rd place.

What your analysis comes down to is that you're more familiar with Montreal's players than those of Phoenix, and thus you can list more positives for Montreal.
so? he's not wrong. injuries, coaching, and smith playing waaaaaaay above his head (hello tippet) is why phoenix finished that much better than the canadiens. the rosters are very, very comparable with one exception: we don't have an OEL/yandle duo. we could if markov was the markov we knew, but that ship has passed.

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10-22-2012, 01:10 PM
  #33
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After 17 years of talking about the Montreal Canadiens online I know there to be 3 truths:

1) The future always looks brighter than the present
2) Potential trumps all reality, this years prospects are better than last years prospects who are better than the prospects of the years before.
3) The Stanley Cup formula is always believed to be Stanley_Cup = Current_Situation + Time

The truth is much different. There is nothing special about the current prospect crop (even Galchenyuk is a risk), and the team is several good management moves away from being competitive.

This team is a fixer-upper and it's going to take time and some brilliant management to get to the big prize.
So sooooo TRUE !
And some of us will say the 2013 drafted players are better than the 2012.

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10-22-2012, 01:19 PM
  #34
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The future is looking better, but it's not close to arriving. Honestly we're a long way from contending right now IMO.

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10-22-2012, 07:01 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Agnostic View Post
After 17 years of talking about the Montreal Canadiens online I know there to be 3 truths:

1) The future always looks brighter than the present
2) Potential trumps all reality, this years prospects are better than last years prospects who are better than the prospects of the years before.
3) The Stanley Cup formula is always believed to be Stanley_Cup = Current_Situation + Time

The truth is much different. There is nothing special about the current prospect crop (even Galchenyuk is a risk), and the team is several good management moves away from being competitive.

This team is a fixer-upper and it's going to take time and some brilliant management to get to the big prize.
It is true. Especially the ''potential trumps all reality'' part, I'm amazed to see even 2nd or later picks being rated higher than some of our former first rounder before they've done anything.

However sometimes the future is much better than the present or past. What you say applies to all NHL teams, Bruins fans probably felt that way before they won the cup and these guys were right for a change.

In the end its all about assembling the right set of guys, we have some good young players and some that are potentially, we need to make a good team out of that. Things aren't great but they aren't completely bleak either.

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10-23-2012, 12:10 AM
  #36
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It is true. Especially the ''potential trumps all reality'' part, I'm amazed to see even 2nd or later picks being rated higher than some of our former first rounder before they've done anything.

However sometimes the future is much better than the present or past. What you say applies to all NHL teams, Bruins fans probably felt that way before they won the cup and these guys were right for a change.

In the end its all about assembling the right set of guys, we have some good young players and some that are potentially, we need to make a good team out of that. Things aren't great but they aren't completely bleak either.
I can remember discussions about how David Wilkie, Brad Brown, and Rory Fitzpatrick were going to be top end defenders and cornerstones of a solid defence. They weren't . But a young Craig Rivet surprised, then a 6th rounder named Andre Markov came along. Michael Ryder? Who is he? An 8th rounder who scored 85 goals over 3 seasons. Bottom line is the talent doesn't often come from where or at the rate the average fan thinks. There are surprises good and bad on the prospect front. Fans shouldn't list them all out and pen them in for greatness. The game is too cruel to the fans on that front.

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10-23-2012, 12:54 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Agnostic View Post
I can remember discussions about how David Wilkie, Brad Brown, and Rory Fitzpatrick were going to be top end defenders and cornerstones of a solid defence. They weren't . But a young Craig Rivet surprised, then a 6th rounder named Andre Markov came along. Michael Ryder? Who is he? An 8th rounder who scored 85 goals over 3 seasons. Bottom line is the talent doesn't often come from where or at the rate the average fan thinks. There are surprises good and bad on the prospect front. Fans shouldn't list them all out and pen them in for greatness. The game is too cruel to the fans on that front.
Nathan Beaulieu and Jarrod Tinordi could turn into Ron Hainsey and Mike Komisarek.
Louis Leblanc could turn into Chris Higgins.
Alex Galchenyuk could have more injuries.

With that said however, the fundamentals of our farm system are strong.

- We have 5 2nd rounders in the 2012 and 2013 drafts.
- We have 8 picks over 7 rounds in 2013, with 2 additional 2nds and 1 missing 4th, for an unusually deep draft. We should also expect a high 1st if there's a season, which will mean a high 2nd as well. The Calgary 2nd might be high as well.
- We actually did draft very well in the period 2003-2011, however what went wrong was asset management. A lot of productive NHLers have left us and we have nothing to show for it. We have a different GM now, and better scouting and player development and player psychologist in place. Errors will still happen but we have a stronger framework in place to reduce their probability.
- We have not traded away a 1st rounder since 2008. We're missing a 2007 1st (Ryan McDonagh) and a 2008 1st (turned into Greg Nemisz by Calgary). Since then, Louis Leblanc, Jarrod Tinordi, Nathan Beaulieu and Alex Galchenyuk have stayed within the system. We didn't trade any of these picks in the context of a campaign to achieve the glory of 8th place.


Last edited by DAChampion: 10-23-2012 at 01:00 AM.
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