The other movies are going to have to be exceptionally poor if that happens.
Or if the Academy decides to throw a Peter Jackson style "this one's for all three" nom toward it...but I don't see it happening. The LOTR trilogy surely held much more favor with the voters than Nolan's trilogy, and all three were better reviewed than the three Batman movies.
Not to mention you could easily (IMO) make the case that ROTK really was the best of the 3 and so deserved the award/nomination, if any of them did. Not many people will argue that TDKR is the best of the Batman trilogy.
The year feels fairly light with best pic contenders thus far, but I still don't think The Avengers or Dark Knight Returns are going to make the cut come awards time. Both remind me of The Town and Star Trek from previous years -- solid, enjoyable populist movies that'll hang around the fringes of the discussion, but ultimately fall short.
I posted this a few years ago, but for all the hand-wringing by some on message boards and some in the media, the Academy Awards does have stronger history of nominating (and awarding) popular movies than it is given credit for.
37 of the top 100 inflation-adjusted box office grossing movies have been nominated for best picture (including 9 of the top 10!). And, if my math is right, 16 of those 37 won best picture (including 3 of the top 10).
Quick aside, on the non inflation adjusted list not relevant to this convo, just found it interesting -- 34 of the top 50 not adjusted for inflation are from Pixar, based on a comic book or part of the Star Wars, Pirates of the Carribean, Twilight, Lord of the Rings or Harry Potter series.
Also, 39 of the top 50 have been released in the 2000s (number jumps to 46 if you go back 20 years to 1992).
If The Dark Knight couldn't pull a nomination TDKR won't either. Collitard's death scene and the ending alone will put it out of their minds. The Avengers? I love the movie. One of my favorites. But what elements about it scream best picture? The story is clearly written so 4 super heroes and their pals can stylishly smash on an army of aliens. What lessons are learned? What values are being portrayed? What's the story-telling value? How does it reflect modern culture or ethics? I'm sorry, but the Avengers doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell to get Academy consideration.
I've been reading the reviews for Skyfall, can't see a franchise movie like that winning a best picture but from the sounds of it, it might take home a best supporting actor (Early reviews say Javier Bardem's Silva is the best Bond villain of all time) and a Cinematography award.
Doesn't Deakins have nine nominations but no wins? About time he gets one.
Has anybody mentioned Killing Them Softly yet? Don't know much about it except that Brad Pitt plays a low life hitman in movie directed by Andrew Dominik, and they worked together on The Assassination of Jesse James.... Despite glowing reviews out of Cannes, the movie isn't attracting a whole lot of buzz, but I have to think that the film and, especially, Pitt could conceivably be real sleepers for nominations. Working with that director, it just seems like a pitch Pitt could hit out of the park.
I've been reading the reviews for Skyfall, can't see a franchise movie like that winning a best picture but from the sounds of it, it might take home a best supporting actor (Early reviews say Javier Bardem's Silva is the best Bond villain of all time) and a Cinematography award.
Unless Phillip Seymour Hoffman is in the Best Supporting Actor category, it's looking like Tommy Lee Jones may just win it for Lincoln.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kihei
Has anybody has mentioned Killing Them Softly yet? Don't know much about it except that Brad Pitt plays a low life hitman in movie directed by Andrew Dominik, and they worked together on The Assassination of Jesse James.... Despite glowing reviews out of Cannes, the movie isn't attracting a whole lot of buzz, but I have to think that the film and, especially, Pitt could conceivably be real sleepers for nominations. Working with that director, it just seems like a pitch Pitt could hit out of the park.
I'm glad you mention it, because I've been looking forward to it as well. Brad Pitt is on quite a creative streak recently (he's never exactly been box-office gold though). However, often times when so many talented actors get together to create a "super-cast", what happens is that none of them actually end up with a nomination. According to a few reviewers though, this is apparently Brad Pitt's best recent work.
Nonetheless, I'm also excited to see the work of cinematographer Greg Frieser, who's previously worked with Jane Campion on Bright Star, if you haven't seen it yet, please do watch it.
Oh, and is anyone else hoping that Jonny Greenwood wins Best Score?
If The Dark Knight couldn't pull a nomination TDKR won't either. Collitard's death scene and the ending alone will put it out of their minds. The Avengers? I love the movie. One of my favorites. But what elements about it scream best picture? The story is clearly written so 4 super heroes and their pals can stylishly smash on an army of aliens. What lessons are learned? What values are being portrayed? What's the story-telling value? How does it reflect modern culture or ethics? I'm sorry, but the Avengers doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell to get Academy consideration.
The Dark Knight couldn't pull a nomination because there were only 5 nominees at the time. They basically switched it to 10 because of TDK.
I'm sorry, but the Avengers doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell to get Academy consideration.
I don't know, if The Blind Side could be nominated for Best Picture, anything is possible.
And yes, I understand that this is one of those movies where the Academy feels important and self righteous for nominating it, but Jesus Christ was that movie bad.
I don't know, if The Blind Side could be nominated for Best Picture, anything is possible.
And yes, I understand that this is one of those movies where the Academy feels important and self righteous for nominating it, but Jesus Christ was that movie bad.
Bad it may have been, but it's all about that political correctness. Yes it was a cheeseball flick, but I just don't think we'll ever see a comic book flick get nominated.
Hard year to predict so far so I'm just going to go with my best picture predictions.
So far The Master is my only shoe-in for Best Picture although Argo will probably get a nomination too as it appears a lot of people like it a lot more than I did. Aside from that I don't see Looper or Seven Psychopaths as having enough political oomph to in there.
I would also bet very highly on The Silver Linings Playbook, The Hobbit, Les Miserables and Django Unchained getting recognition in that category.
As for outside chances to round it out: Hitchcock, Kill Bin Laden, and Life of Pi.
I'm with you on Argo. I really, really didn't like it. I also agree with you on The Master. One of the better movies I've seen in years.
Of movies that have already been released:
The Master, Argo, Moonrise Kingdom
Still to be released, but look like they'll be nominated movies:
Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, Les Miserables, Django Unchained, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty
Outside shot (roughly in order):
Flight, The Dark Knight Rises, The Avengers, Prometheus, Hitchcock, Promised Land, Arbitrage, Hyde Park on the Hudson, Cloud Atlas, Anna Karenina, The Hunger Games, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Bernie, Looper, Skyfall
I think Argo and The Master are shoe-ins at this point.
Lincoln and Les Miserables feel very, very likely.
That leaves 1-6 spots up for grabs under the newfangled rules.
I'd put Silver Linings Playbook next in line based off advanced word.
Maybe Flight next.
Both seem poised to have the ideal mix of critical aclaim and potential popularity.
If Django gets ticket sales, it will be there too. If not, it won't.
I don't think the Hobbit is going to carry the Lord of the Rings good will almost regardless of quality.
I can see Cloud Atlas making the cut - it will probably have enough passionate fans to put it in the game, but not enough to win.
Life of Pi has just oozes pedigree. Looks cloying and War Horse-y to me but in this new Oscar world War Horse still managed a best pic nom so who knows.
Beyond that, I have a lot of questions.
Last edited by KallioWeHardlyKnewYe: 10-24-2012 at 11:03 PM.
I can see Cloud Atlas making the cut - it will probably have enough passionate fans to put it in the game, but not enough to win.
Life of Pi has just oozes pedigree. Looks cloying and War Horse-y to me but in this new Oscar world War Horse still managed a best pic nom so who knows.
Beyond that, I have a lot of questions.
I actually think Cloud Atlas will one of those movies that will be mocked and looked upon as a colossal mess big budget mess a la The Postman, even if it doesn't deserve it. I think Razzie nominations are in its future.
As for Life of Pi, it's impossible for it to be as cheesy and horrifically sentimental as War Horse. Haha, good lord was that movie awful. Ang Lee's movies don't make the audience roll their eyes at their manipulative cheesiness like good ole Steven's do.
I actually think Cloud Atlas will one of those movies that will be mocked and looked upon as a colossal mess big budget mess a la The Postman, even if it doesn't deserve it. I think Razzie nominations are in its future.
As for Life of Pi, it's impossible for it to be as cheesy and horrifically sentimental as War Horse. Haha, good lord was that movie awful. Ang Lee's movies don't make the audience roll their eyes at their manipulative cheesiness like good ole Steven's do.
Agree on both points, though I don't think Cloud Atlas will be Razzie bad.
No way Life of Pi will be cheesey, unless they diverge from the book. It's not a good book, it's a great book, and Ang Lee is one of a handful of directors who I can see doing it justice.
Nominations for best picture requires (if I have this right) 5% of the the AA nominating votes. I think nine pictures got nominated last year, and this year could be less than ten as there seems like a small group of pictures that is in the mix and then a host of long shots. Here's my picks, in order of likelihood:
Les Miserables
Argo
Lincoln
Silver Lining Playbook
Live of Pi
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty
and after those seven come the real long shots
Hitchcock
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Could make it:
Flight
The Sessions
Moonrise Kingdom
Amour
Super wild card
Killing Them Softly (doesn't seem on anybody's radar at the moment--yet it has a very good pedigree and was very well thought of coming out of Cannes).
Yeah, I'm probably being too dismissive of Life of Pi. Haven't read the book, only seen the trailers. At this point in the game, with so much still unseen, I'm just looking at types of movies that typically appeal to the Academy (The Avengers that ain't).
So what will be the inevitable mediocre movie that does make the best picture cut?
Yeah, I'm probably being too dismissive of Life of Pi. Haven't read the book, only seen the trailers. At this point in the game, with so much still unseen, I'm just looking at types of movies that typically appeal to the Academy (The Avengers that ain't).
So what will be the inevitable mediocre movie that does make the best picture cut?
I enjoyed Argo, but it is a pretty mediocre front runner at the moment. Wasn't a fan of either Moonrise Kingdom or Beasts of the Southern Wild, either; though they are better than mediocre, I guess. Anna Karenina got savaged at TIFF. Hyde Park on Hudson, which also got clobbered, might make the cut in a year that seems to be wrapping itself in American flags. Those two would seem to qualify as mediocre in the unlikely chance one of them is anointed.
I enjoyed Argo, but it is a pretty mediocre front runner at the moment. Wasn't a fan of either Moonrise Kingdom or Beasts of the Southern Wild, either; though they are better than mediocre, I guess. Anna Karenina got savaged at TIFF. Hyde Park on Hudson, which also got clobbered, might make the cut in a year that seems to be wrapping itself in American flags. Those two would seem to qualify as mediocre in the unlikely chance one of them is anointed.
I liked Argo and Moonrise Kingdom fine. More than you it seems, though I wouldn't call myself a staunch defender of either.
I'm with you on Beasts of the Southern Wild, but I'm saving my rants about that for when voters wind up nominating a 6 year old girl for best actress.
I'm really worried DDL will take the Oscar from Phoenix. I really like DDL, he is almost unanimously considered to be the best actor with all things considered, but I personally like JP more. Of course Lewis makes a movie the same year that Phoenix gave this performance.
I liked Argo and Moonrise Kingdom fine. More than you it seems, though I wouldn't call myself a staunch defender of either.
I'm with you on Beasts of the Southern Wild, but I'm saving my rants about that for when voters wind up nominating a 6 year old girl for best actress.
I think Quvenzhane Wallis is almost a lock actually. And given a weak field (not counting French women) I'm not sure there are five actresses that deserve it more. I agree it would be weird, but, then again, she was the only thing that I liked in that over-hyped movie.
Yeah, I'm probably being too dismissive of Life of Pi. Haven't read the book, only seen the trailers. At this point in the game, with so much still unseen, I'm just looking at types of movies that typically appeal to the Academy (The Avengers that ain't).
So what will be the inevitable mediocre movie that does make the best picture cut?
Having seen both, in no universe does Life of Pi belong in the same sentence as War Horse. It's a very good, emotionally honest movie. To me it seems like one of those "middle-ground" nominations - you could maybe put it alongside Hugo or Toy Story 3 from the last couple of years as a likeable movie that very few people will argue should actually win the category, but most are happy to see it nominated.
I also wouldn't be surprised if it took home some prizes for visual effects too - they are mindblowing. I didn't think I'd see a better SFX feast this year than the final act of the Avengers, but Pi as a whole topped it.
As far as the mediocre movie that makes the cut - could be Silver Linings Playbook. At least for me personally. Just seems like a movie that will be very easy to hate if done wrong. I was also horribly unimpressed by the Hurt Locker, so if Zero Dark Thirty is more of the same, it might be my pick.
