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Luongo Thread - Waiting on the World to Change (Mod Warning in OP)

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10-25-2012, 09:58 AM
  #26
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Originally Posted by Drop the Sopel View Post
Disagre with his reasoning here. The longer the season, the bigger the advantage good goaltending gets you. Over a smaller sample size, the gap narrows. Throw in the fact Luongo often gets off to a slow start and the gap between Luongo and an average goaltender narrows even further.

Gardiner +++ just isn't grounded in reality IMO. Assuming the pluses aren't Lombardi, Komisarek and Connolly.

That's what's being being reported, whether you want to agree with it or not.

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10-25-2012, 10:03 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
The price for Luongo needs to START at Gardiner, Lupul, Reilly, or JVR. Anything else and it's likely we're just getting table scraps or a slew of crap like Calgary got for Phaneuf.

Yeah I got the sense it would be Gardiner or bust for you a long time ago.


It is something though to ask for another fan base's best young player when they have all but forgotten the need for the playoffs. They've been without for a long time now so what's the impetus on them to acquiesce?... Better to watch the young kids grow.

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10-25-2012, 10:06 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Drop the Sopel View Post
Disagre with his reasoning here. The longer the season, the bigger the advantage good goaltending gets you. Over a smaller sample size, the gap narrows. Throw in the fact Luongo often gets off to a slow start and the gap between Luongo and an average goaltender narrows even further.

Gardiner +++ just isn't grounded in reality IMO. Assuming the pluses aren't Lombardi, Komisarek and Connolly.
Gillis would take that deal in a heart-beat. Gardiner for Luongo, and the Canucks eat those contracts of the other three. No way would Burke include Gardiner in any deal, unless Edler was coming back the other way.

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10-25-2012, 10:08 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Alflives View Post
Gillis would take that deal in a heart-beat. Gardiner for Luongo, and the Canucks eat those contracts of the other three. No way would Burke include Gardiner in any deal, unless Edler was coming back the other way.

Because Gillis loves salary dumps right? I guess the cap is not important and Aqua would love having 10m in the minors... all for Goldenboy Gardiner... Yup.

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10-25-2012, 10:19 AM
  #30
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Because Gillis loves salary dumps right? I guess the cap is not important and Aqua would love having 10m in the minors... all for Goldenboy Gardiner... Yup.
Gardiner is already the Leafs' best player, by far. He performs, even in front of horrible goaltending! If he comes with 'baggage', the Canucks would accept that. Wealthy teams like Vancouver (Toronto too) bury salary. Unless, of course, any new CBA restricts such.

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10-25-2012, 10:21 AM
  #31
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JVR would be the perfect centrepiece, it's too bad a 3-way wasn't worked out with Holmgren when Schenn was reportedly offered at the draft.

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10-25-2012, 10:23 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Alflives View Post
Gardiner is already the Leafs' best player, by far. He performs, even in front of horrible goaltending! If he comes with 'baggage', the Canucks would accept that. Wealthy teams like Vancouver (Toronto too) bury salary. Unless, of course, any new CBA restricts such.


They bury salary, but not 10m+ worth of it. Mike Gillis has been very active with managing his cap space, getting players signed on competitive deals, and not taking on dumps unless for equal benefit (Rienprecht for a 3rd). What you are proposing is so far out of line it becomes farcical.


There are a lot of good young Dmen around the league. Let's not treat them as they are the elite players and Luongo is not. It's actually the other way around.

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10-25-2012, 10:25 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
JVR would be the perfect centrepiece, it's too bad a 3-way wasn't worked out with Holmgren when Schenn was reportedly offered at the draft.

As a centrepiece yes. As the whole package, no. I would imagine that Gillis would ask for more.


The idea was actually kicked around at the time of the trade that Gillis must have had insight on what he could flip Schenn for, as all GMs talk. He just didn't feel it was worth it I guess.

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10-25-2012, 10:58 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
it puts the spotlight on Bozak and his suspect underlying numbers.
Bozak is 26 with just over 200 pro games under his belt... do you think the Canucks would look at him as a finished product?

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10-25-2012, 11:10 AM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drop the Sopel View Post
Gardiner +++ just isn't grounded in reality IMO. Assuming the pluses aren't Lombardi, Komisarek and Connolly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alflives View Post
Gillis would take that deal in a heart-beat. Gardiner for Luongo, and the Canucks eat those contracts of the other three. No way would Burke include Gardiner in any deal, unless Edler was coming back the other way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alflives View Post
Gardiner is already the Leafs' best player, by far. He performs, even in front of horrible goaltending! If he comes with 'baggage', the Canucks would accept that. Wealthy teams like Vancouver (Toronto too) bury salary. Unless, of course, any new CBA restricts such.
How the heck do you bury Komi's salary which has a NMC? Forget the new CBA - the old CBA doesn't let you shove guys in the AHL to remove the cap hit who have such a clause.

I'd rather have Alberts over Komi in the lineup; both players are garbage but at least Alberts is only *less than one-third* the cap hit of Komi.


Last edited by Barney Gumble: 10-25-2012 at 11:19 AM.
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Old
10-25-2012, 11:28 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
Bozak is 26 with just over 200 pro games under his belt... do you think the Canucks would look at him as a finished product?



I think the Canucks will put a lot of weight into his underlying stats to this point. They won't ignore them. It's both what he is doing now _and_ what he could become. Not just what he will become.

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10-25-2012, 11:29 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Barney Gumble View Post
How the heck do you bury Komi's salary which has a NMC? Forget the new CBA - the old CBA doesn't let you shove guys in the AHL to remove the cap hit who have such a clause.

I'd rather have Alberts over Komi in the lineup; both players are garbage but at least Alberts is only *less than one-third* the cap hit of Komi.

It's ok BG, we're getting Gardiner. All is well.

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10-25-2012, 11:40 AM
  #38
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Gardiner is the Leafs best player now? he isn't even their best defenseman let alone their best player. But if he's their best player maybe I need to lower my expectations and just settle on Luongo for Phil Kessel?

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10-25-2012, 11:51 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
I think the Canucks will put a lot of weight into his underlying stats to this point. They won't ignore them. It's both what he is doing now _and_ what he could become. Not just what he will become.
I'm just not sure how much stock one should put into Corsi for young players, especially young guys on poorly coached teams. I do not believe the Canucks traded Hodgson because he was a poor Corsi player, I think they would have turned him into a good one, they traded him because he was a big baby.

That doesn't mean I think they ignore it.

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10-25-2012, 11:55 AM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
I'm just not sure how much stock one should put into Corsi for young players, especially young guys on poorly coached teams. I do not believe the Canucks traded Hodgson because he was a poor Corsi player, I think they would have turned him into a good one, they traded him because he was a big baby.

That doesn't mean I think they ignore it.
If that's the case then our management team needs to go. Manny Ramirez was a big baby yet he dominated baseball and the BoSox put up with it because it was more important to them to have a player produce than get someone who may not have some intangible minuses.

Tyler Bozak should be nothing more than a throw in.

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10-25-2012, 12:11 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
If that's the case then our management team needs to go. Manny Ramirez was a big baby yet he dominated baseball and the BoSox put up with it because it was more important to them to have a player produce than get someone who may not have some intangible minuses.

Tyler Bozak should be nothing more than a throw in.
The Canucks turned their big baby into a similar asset without the headaches, I'm sure the Redsox would have swapped Manny for another hall of famer that wasn't a head case if they could have.

Tyler Bozak would be a throw in, I just don't think he's a useless POS.

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10-25-2012, 12:20 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
I'm just not sure how much stock one should put into Corsi for young players, especially young guys on poorly coached teams. I do not believe the Canucks traded Hodgson because he was a poor Corsi player, I think they would have turned him into a good one, they traded him because he was a big baby.

That doesn't mean I think they ignore it.

The bold statement is kind of ironic considering your prior reliance on Corsi to formulate opinion.


I think there's enough of a sample to infer something on Bozak. Whether it's the deal breaker remains to be seen.

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10-25-2012, 12:22 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
The Canucks turned their big baby into a similar asset without the headaches, I'm sure the Redsox would have swapped Manny for another hall of famer that wasn't a head case if they could have.

Tyler Bozak would be a throw in, I just don't think he's a useless POS.

Do you think Andrew Ebbett is a useless POS? (The comparison in the article)

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10-25-2012, 12:28 PM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
The Canucks turned their big baby into a similar asset without the headaches, I'm sure the Redsox would have swapped Manny for another hall of famer that wasn't a head case if they could have.

Tyler Bozak would be a throw in, I just don't think he's a useless POS.
As a throw in I would take him, but he'd have to carry so little value in the trade that it might not be worth it for the Leafs to include him. I'd put his value similar to Raymond, and in doing so I know I'm criminally understating Raymond.

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10-25-2012, 12:30 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
The bold statement is kind of ironic considering your prior reliance on Corsi to formulate opinion.


I think there's enough of a sample to infer something on Bozak. Whether it's the deal breaker remains to be seen.
I don't form my opinions based on Corsi, I like Corsi because it usually backs up my opinion.

I was being honest when I said I'm not sure how Corsi relates to young guys. With Hodgson, for example, he's a good player with a lot to learn. I would point to his Corsi to relate how he's doing now, but I wouldn't use it to predict future failure, because he's young and obviously has a lot to learn. I'm not sure how that applies to Bozak, that's why I asked what you thought.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Do you think Andrew Ebbett is a useless POS? (The comparison in the article)
Ebbett is a very useful 13th forward but I'd never want him pencilled into our lineup full time. Maybe you all don't think Bozak is a useless pos, but that's the impression I got.


Last edited by Scurr: 10-25-2012 at 12:37 PM.
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10-25-2012, 12:34 PM
  #46
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As a throw in I would take him, but he'd have to carry so little value in the trade that it might not be worth it for the Leafs to include him. I'd put his value similar to Raymond, and in doing so I know I'm criminally understating Raymond.
I see it in a similar light. Raymond offers good value because he has a contract that he can outproduce, I think Bozak offers the same.

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10-25-2012, 12:40 PM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
I see it in a similar light. Raymond offers good value because he has a contract that he can outproduce, I think Bozak offers the same.
Raymond is better than Bozak, but I don't see a spot for Raymond anymore so that's why I would be willing to make the move. But again, there better be pieces like Gardiner or JVR coming back if Luongo is included in this trade.

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10-25-2012, 12:49 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Raymond is better than Bozak, but I don't see a spot for Raymond anymore so that's why I would be willing to make the move. But again, there better be pieces like Gardiner or JVR coming back if Luongo is included in this trade.
You wouldn't see their first as a valuable asset coming back? It really depends how the CBA ends up, but I think a 1st + cap savings could end being pretty valuable to us.

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10-25-2012, 12:52 PM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
I don't form my opinions based on Corsi, I like Corsi because it usually backs up my opinion.

Not the impression I got, but fair enough.



Quote:
I was being honest when I said I'm not sure how Corsi relates to young guys. With Hodgson, for example, he's a good player with a lot to learn. I would point to his Corsi to relate how he's doing now, but I wouldn't use it to predict future failure, because he's young and obviously has a lot to learn. I'm not sure how that applies to Bozak, that's why I asked what you thought.

For us to get an accurate answer on what you are suggesting, we would have to track the Corsi of similar players (which I don't think Hodgson is BTW, not to mention the age difference), with a similar amount of games played, and see the variation in their improvement (if any) beyond that threshold.


I'm _guessing_ that there isn't a marked jump in the advanced metrics. So it would be hard to justify taking a complete flyer on Bozak, but I could be wrong.


Quote:
Ebbett is a very useful 13th forward but I'd never want him pencilled into our lineup full time. Maybe you all don't think Bozak is a useless pos, but that's the impression I got.

I don't think he's useless. He could be a good utility forward like Ebbett, or improve enough to be something more. If he and Colborne were interchangeable in the package though, I'd definitely go with Colborne.

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10-25-2012, 12:56 PM
  #50
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If he and Colborne were interchangeable in the package though, I'd definitely go with Colborne.
I agree with that. Vet, prospect, pick seems to be more in line with past deals than prospect, prospect, pick though.

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