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Tropical Storm Sandy **BE CAREFUL EAST COAST!!**

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Old
10-25-2012, 01:09 PM
  #26
puckstopper55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lorwood View Post
Yeah I bought a generator for Irene. Now I have to change the oil put in some fresh gas and make sure she starts. (Wish I would have put that transfer switch in!)

I also have poor drainage (no basement) I won't be able to handle 10" of rain unless it is drawn out through an extended period. This is my biggest worry.
I do not have a basement either, which means my concrete slab is only an inch or two above ground level. 10" of rain in a few hours may be bad news

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10-25-2012, 03:41 PM
  #27
Ziggy16
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The US Comptuer Model that had it going out to sea now has it making a DIRECT HIT WITH THE EYE -- DEAD CETNER ON LI -- Come Tuesday

The Euro Model, has the eye landfall iin NJ, we wstill get eh wind and rain -- ON MONDAY

We are gonna have a hurricane next week.. this aint curving out to sea..

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10-25-2012, 03:48 PM
  #28
Twine Seeking Missle
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Well this ****ing sucks!

They have the winds at about 65 MPH when this mother****er hits us. Anyone remember how this compares with Irene when that ***** hit land last year?

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10-25-2012, 05:24 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Twine Seeking Missle View Post
Well this ****ing sucks!

They have the winds at about 65 MPH when this mother****er hits us. Anyone remember how this compares with Irene when that ***** hit land last year?
This is a completelllyyyy different scenario than Irene. Irene was a strictely tropical system....much smaller by comparison.

This storm is essentially a hybrid hurricane/nor'easter. It defies logic and lacks historical precident.

It's sort of a reverse Perfect Storm, if you will. Regardless of the exact classification, I wouldnt be focused on the wind speed. In regards to a comparison to irene....

-This storm will be significantly larger, with a LARGER wind field. Irene was a 65mph tropical storm when it "hit" us....This will have winds to near hurricane force, sustained, for nearly a day. Combine that with absolutely torrential rains, and you have a recipe for a good wallop.

-The combination of an exceptionally large wind field which will drive water towards the coast, astronomical high tides, and long duration of the event, portend extensive flooding and inundation of low lying areas.

-Finally, the potential trajectory of the storm, from the west, not the south, and the phasing that will occur with mid latitude energy, will mean it will not weaken as it heads towards us, in fact, the storm should be strengthening when it reaches us.

The latest GFS just progged a 948mb low parked over long island.

I HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS BEFORE IN MY LIFE AS A METEOROLOGIST.

Looks like I was wrong Noreaster96....totally shocking confluence of events about to happen.

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10-25-2012, 05:32 PM
  #30
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with the storm now projected to hit south of LI, that means the rain won't be as bad with 3-6 inch totals over a 36 hour period but and a big but, the winds and storm surge will be incredible. Much worse than irene and over a longer period of time. I hate to thinkk what could happen yet i am so excited to see this once in a lifetime event.

PS. wouldnt it be amazing if the storm knocked down the coliseum and insurance would buy us a new one?

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10-25-2012, 06:01 PM
  #31
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As someone who lives in Florida, PREPARE NOW! Don't wait. Start tying down yard stuff. If you have a storm drain in front of your home make sure it is clear of leaves and debris. Go shopping and make sure you have supplies. Cut any tree limbs you may suspect will break. Most important, BE CAREFUL and STAY SAFE!!!

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10-25-2012, 06:39 PM
  #32
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Did some lite prep changed oil in generator and exercised it filled propane tank for grill bought some batteries if it looks like it will be bad will fill gas cans Tom. And go to store liquor and grocery

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10-25-2012, 10:06 PM
  #33
Noreaster96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeamKidd View Post
This is a completelllyyyy different scenario than Irene. Irene was a strictely tropical system....much smaller by comparison.

This storm is essentially a hybrid hurricane/nor'easter. It defies logic and lacks historical precident.

It's sort of a reverse Perfect Storm, if you will. Regardless of the exact classification, I wouldnt be focused on the wind speed. In regards to a comparison to irene....

-This storm will be significantly larger, with a LARGER wind field. Irene was a 65mph tropical storm when it "hit" us....This will have winds to near hurricane force, sustained, for nearly a day. Combine that with absolutely torrential rains, and you have a recipe for a good wallop.

-The combination of an exceptionally large wind field which will drive water towards the coast, astronomical high tides, and long duration of the event, portend extensive flooding and inundation of low lying areas.

-Finally, the potential trajectory of the storm, from the west, not the south, and the phasing that will occur with mid latitude energy, will mean it will not weaken as it heads towards us, in fact, the storm should be strengthening when it reaches us.

The latest GFS just progged a 948mb low parked over long island.

I HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS BEFORE IN MY LIFE AS A METEOROLOGIST.

Looks like I was wrong Noreaster96....totally shocking confluence of events about to happen.
There's no reason to apologize or even admitting to being being wrong... That was so far back that no one couldve had any hope of getting it close to being right, the fact of the matter is this is just so unprecedented as you mentioned that it makes no sense. Climatology argues 100% against this. This is A simply amazing meteorological phenomena. A part of the meteorologist in me is excited to be around for what could be a historic storm, but most of the meteorologist and the rest of me hopes that it weakens dramatically unexpectedly or miraculously goes OTS since this will be a devastating storm somewhere even though this is just not very likely to occur.

And yeah, if the 12Z GFS made my jaw drop. If that were to verify it would be absolutely devastating...

Also, if you know of any openings for any meteorologist positions anywhere I'd be all ears lol

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10-26-2012, 05:48 AM
  #34
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NorEaster..

id love to hear your thoughts on the updated US Model thats out.. The Absolutely Crazy Results its spitting out for LI:

It has the Eye Hitting LI on TUESDAY, then CIRCLING BACK and the EYE hitting us AGAIN on WEDS from the OPPOSITE DIRECTION

and the storm not be over til THURSDAY

Imagine being in the eye of the hurricane for over 12 HOURS with no wind or rain, then repeating that same setup 24 hours later..-- Thats unheard of..

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Old
10-26-2012, 07:32 AM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lorwood View Post
Did some lite prep changed oil in generator and exercised it filled propane tank for grill bought some batteries if it looks like it will be bad will fill gas cans Tom. And go to store liquor and grocery
You're an Islanders fan, you would think you would have enough sitting around

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Old
10-26-2012, 09:05 AM
  #36
Noreaster96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy16 View Post
NorEaster..

id love to hear your thoughts on the updated US Model thats out.. The Absolutely Crazy Results its spitting out for LI:

It has the Eye Hitting LI on TUESDAY, then CIRCLING BACK and the EYE hitting us AGAIN on WEDS from the OPPOSITE DIRECTION

and the storm not be over til THURSDAY

Imagine being in the eye of the hurricane for over 12 HOURS with no wind or rain, then repeating that same setup 24 hours later..-- Thats unheard of..
I watched that come out frame by frame and I saw it happening and thought, "Man, it would really just be a kick in the groin if it came back and hit LI after going southwest..." And lo and behold it did. If it did that it would be awful, first surge on the north shore then surge on the south shore? I know its never happened on LI to my knowledge, but based on the upper level setup its a big, cutoff low so it would meander given that solution.

That being said, I think the most likely landfall is into central, south central New Jersey attm, but it wont really matter since this storm is so huge the wind and precip shield is going to be so large we're still going to see winds in excess of 50 mph and gusts of hurricane strength... if anything passing off to the south will just build up the surge over the south shore. I saw HPC's latest forecast called for 5-6 inches of rain, which doesnt seem unreasonable

Keep a close eye on it though, since the track still isnt

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10-26-2012, 09:37 AM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Noreaster96 View Post
I watched that come out frame by frame and I saw it happening and thought, "Man, it would really just be a kick in the groin if it came back and hit LI after going southwest..." And lo and behold it did. If it did that it would be awful, first surge on the north shore then surge on the south shore? I know its never happened on LI to my knowledge, but based on the upper level setup its a big, cutoff low so it would meander given that solution.

That being said, I think the most likely landfall is into central, south central New Jersey attm, but it wont really matter since this storm is so huge the wind and precip shield is going to be so large we're still going to see winds in excess of 50 mph and gusts of hurricane strength... if anything passing off to the south will just build up the surge over the south shore. I saw HPC's latest forecast called for 5-6 inches of rain, which doesnt seem unreasonable

Keep a close eye on it though, since the track still isnt
At this point ill take the 5-6" of rain if the winds stay down ..

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Old
10-26-2012, 09:45 AM
  #38
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Don't like the looks of this one bit. Our area (Lancaster, PA) had historic flooding last year like other parts of the country from Lee. Not much wind with that one. Flooding waters, winds, no electricity with already eroded banks from last year is a recipe for I don't know what - disaster is my best guess though.

Stay safe folks.

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Old
10-26-2012, 06:00 PM
  #39
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U.S. computer models have been stuck on a direct hit to long island for the last 24 hours. A totally amazing confluence of events as it really appears as if sandy has nowhere to go but right on top of us. A blocking system to the east and an amplifying trough to the west leave little doubt as to its course. As it moves north it will meander over the far west atlantic and then be completely enveloped/enhanced/transitioned!? (i dont even know what to call it exactly) into a raging nor'easter/hurricane hybrid. the NAM and GFS have progged a 950mb low near long island....this rivals in intensity to The Storm of the Century back in 1993? and every major blizzard since. Combine that with its tropical pedigree...it's just a crazy scenario.

Bottom line, things will deteoriate during the day on monday, by monday evening, the core of the storm will begin to dump exceptionally heavy rains across the area as winds pick up to near 50mph sustained, gusting over 65mph. A persistant onshore flow will pile water on the coast, rivaling, or exceeding what Irene did....and leave laden trees could easily snap in the winds, causing extensive power outages.

Prepare but do not panic. Plan for the worst (being without power for a week or more) but hope for the best (a stormy rainy night that is more bark then bite)...

-Have non perishable food, potable water, batteries, lights, gas up the car and have CASH on hand and necessary medicines. Prepare and this wont be a problem, even if the worst hits.

Do NOT evacuate unless told to do so. The roads are clogged enough as is.

Stay safe all and hope it somehow misses us....

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Old
10-26-2012, 09:20 PM
  #40
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Please don't let me lose power again. I can't go another full week without power. Ill lose my mind

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10-27-2012, 10:06 AM
  #41
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This really sucks. I live on the water, just gutted and remodeled my entire first floor from Irene. Now sandy is gonna **** me over? Two years in a row after going twenty with nothing basically. Had a foot of water in the house from a tropical storm, wtf is this going to do me? I need to move...

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10-27-2012, 02:00 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by macleod50 View Post
You're an Islanders fan, you would think you would have enough sitting around
Goooooood.

My liquor cabinet is called "the Milbury."

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10-28-2012, 09:26 AM
  #43
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Hey all, just a quick update...

Recent model guidance is coming to an agreement with a landfalling extratropical cyclone to the south of NYC in New Jersey....

Winds of at least 40 mph sustained are expected for an extended period of time in addition to gusts, possibly exceeding 80mph. Rainfall of at least 1-2 inches is expected. The MAJOR problem with this storm will be possibly historic storm surge of 6-11 ft in some places as per the NWS... and this DOES NOT include waves on top of the surge...

Please be safe everyone

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10-28-2012, 09:35 AM
  #44
TeamKidd
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Pressures already lower than forecast by computer models, down to 951mb...this hybrid...mostly hurricane looking thing....with humongous wind field....will begin impacting the area after midnight tonight....heavy winds after 7am.....center of the storm will go just south of the raritan bay....from the east....

the combination of wind speed, wind field, and size of this storm, will bring an unprecidented amount of water and funnel it into long island sound and raritan bay.

To put this is more perspective, they are expecting 25 foot waves on the GREAT LAKES because of this storm. Just unbelievable.

Long island is on the "right front" quadrant on this storm, which is always the highest windspeeds on a hurricane....the time has come, and mostly passed...to prepare. I expect much higher water than irene and potentially twice as many power outages. People on the coast, under 10 feet of elevation....should strongly consider leaving.

And the idea that the forecast is WORSE than for IRENE and there isnt even the hint of talking about evacuations for Zone A...is totally mind boggling to me. Shelters should be open and they should be talkign about voluntary evacuations of zone A....how can this be forecast to be worse than irene...and yet we're not talking evacuations?! I'm very concerned at how lax people are takign this storm.

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10-28-2012, 11:37 AM
  #45
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**** is about to get real, going outside and making the yard as hurricane proof as possible right now

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Old
10-28-2012, 12:20 PM
  #46
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Got my generator and tied everything down in my yard. Hopefully this strom won't do too much damage.

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Old
10-28-2012, 12:33 PM
  #47
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Pressure continues to drop inside the hurricane. That is insane, folks. This all but guarantees a CAT 1 storm effects here on Long Island. Some folks already starting to say that occasional gusts in some bands approaching 90 MPH is not unlikely. The reason why is because once the Low pressure band over the Appalachain mountains wraps into the outer bands tonights and pushes the storm towards NJ coast, that more energy infused into the storm will not be measured by storm hunters.

Everyone please make sure you take this one seriously. They hyped Irene IMO, it was too close to the coast and was undoubetdly going to lose a ton of power as it neared us (and still had a punch).

This is going to give us the most powerful part of the storm (NE quadrant) for an extended period of time. THIS will be everything Irene wasn't. Those South of Sunrise Highway on a voluntary evacuation order. It may get to be mandatory by 4 PM. That's just crazy, folks.

Stay safe and secure your yard. Don't be that person who has a broken window because an 85 mph gust takes a chair right through it.

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Old
10-28-2012, 01:03 PM
  #48
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yep, right after i opened my mouth, they issued evacuation orders....schools closed. finally...late, but just early enough....to be effective. stay safe everyone.

the storm is developing an eye like feature, showing strengthening...most people say that the worst impacts happen from storms that are strengthening as they approach the coast...it allows for more "mixing down" of the strong winds aloft....this storm will absolutely be strengthening as it arrives....and it is beginning to arrive ALREADY...winds are already kicked up here and water is over 2 feet above normal.

this will absolutely be everythign irene wasnt...BUT just fyi...all the warnings for irene were absolutely warranted, many people were impacted severely and the POTENTIAL damage was very great....as it turned out it did end up staying too close to the coast to maintain itself...but the potential was definitely there....as is being bore out by this storm.

a lot of people will be ******** their pants come tomorrow night as they havent prepared enough....

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Old
10-28-2012, 01:38 PM
  #49
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Going to work tomorrow is going to suck getting home may be worse.

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Old
10-28-2012, 02:06 PM
  #50
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Sandy!?!?!!

Come on someone had to say it.

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