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Luongo Thread - Waiting on the World to Change (Mod Warning in OP)

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10-25-2012, 01:00 PM
  #51
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
I agree with that. Vet, prospect, pick seems to be more in line with past deals than prospect, prospect, pick though.


It depends on what TO values more, a player that is playing on their top line at C right now, or a player that could do that down the road (Colborne's got a long way to go). Bozak, despite what deficiencies would be exposed here, still put up 47 points for them. Perhaps that's worth more to them in the here and now.

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10-25-2012, 01:01 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
You wouldn't see their first as a valuable asset coming back? It really depends how the CBA ends up, but I think a 1st + cap savings could end being pretty valuable to us.
I project their 1st as ending up somewhere around the 17-20 range, so I don't see it as being all that valuable. However if its a top 10 pick then it becomes as valuable as some people on here treat it.

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10-25-2012, 01:04 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
For us to get an accurate answer on what you are suggesting, we would have to track the Corsi of similar players (which I don't think Hodgson is BTW, not to mention the age difference), with a similar amount of games played, and see the variation in their improvement (if any) beyond that threshold.
Is Alex Steen a good comparison? He was an average to poor Corsi player before taking off the last couple seasons, in his late 20's. Took him a lot longer than 200 games. Definitely could be the exception rather than the rule but it gives some hope for the kind of turn around I'm talking about anyway.

I'm attracted to reclamation projects because they offer a lot of value. Alex Steen would cost a lot right now if you could get him, he wasn't worth jack **** when the Blues got him.


Last edited by Scurr: 10-25-2012 at 01:14 PM.
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10-25-2012, 01:09 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
I project their 1st as ending up somewhere around the 17-20 range, so I don't see it as being all that valuable. However if its a top 10 pick then it becomes as valuable as some people on here treat it.
I guess we just look at that differently. The Canucks have drafted Jensen and Gaunce in that range recently, and this is suppose to be a deep draft, I think a similar player offers good value to the team going forward.

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10-25-2012, 01:15 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
Is Alex Steen a good comparison? He was an average to poor Corsi player before taking off the last couple seasons, in his late 20's. Took him a lot longer than 200 games. Definitely could be the exception rather than the rule but it gives some hope for the kind of turn around I'm talking about anyway.
Hope he turns out more like a Steen than a Stajan.

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10-25-2012, 01:17 PM
  #56
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Hope he turns out more like a Steen than a Stajan.
Stajan is a pretty good player imo, the problem is someone gave him 4.5m.

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10-25-2012, 01:25 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
Is Alex Steen a good comparison? He was an average to poor Corsi player before taking off the last couple seasons, in his late 20's. Took him a lot longer than 200 games. Definitely could be the exception rather than the rule but it gives some hope for the kind of turn around I'm talking about anyway.

I'm attracted to reclamation projects because they offer a lot of value. Alex Steen would cost a lot right now if you could get him, he wasn't worth jack **** when the Blues got him.



Alex Steen still had a pedigree that Bozak will never have.


Steen "took off" when he was 25. Bozak is now 26, turning 27 in March. Prior to solidifying his defense in St. Louis, Steen still had 3 top6 calibre seasons. To date, Bozak has 1. And people are still on him about his suspect defense...


Lastly, Stempniak isn't garbage. He had two top6 level seasons under his belt when he was traded...

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10-25-2012, 01:25 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
I guess we just look at that differently. The Canucks have drafted Jensen and Gaunce in that range recently, and this is suppose to be a deep draft, I think a similar player offers good value to the team going forward.
I think you're right. I'm just not comfortable with a lot of uncertainty when dealing a guy like Luongo.

Looking at this mock draft: http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/

There appears to be a bit of a drop after the 12th pick (Lazar). Ironically that's Toronto's projected pick, but I highly doubt they would pick there if they had Luongo in net. There are definitely some decent pieces after that, but less big boom type prospects and if that's the main asset coming back there's too much uncertainty for me to stomach.

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10-25-2012, 01:36 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Steen "took off" when he was 25. Bozak is now 26, turning 27 in March. Prior to solidifying his defense in St. Louis, Steen still had 3 top6 calibre seasons. To date, Bozak has 1. And people are still on him about his suspect defense...


Lastly, Stempniak isn't garbage. He had two top6 level seasons under his belt when he was traded...
I wasn't implying that Bozak was going to produce like Steen, I was only looking at the turn around in his Corsi performance. Steen started in the league earlier, so producing at an earlier age and rounding out his defensive game earlier makes sense, no? It took Steen longer than 200 games to figure it out, that's for sure.

Colaiacovo was still a promising 26 year old defensemen when they got traded, Steen had 4 points in 20 games when he got dealt, I thought he was a throw in.


Last edited by Scurr: 10-25-2012 at 02:04 PM.
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10-25-2012, 01:39 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
if that's the main asset coming back there's too much uncertainty for me to stomach.
I'm a little more of a gambler I guess.

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10-25-2012, 01:41 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
Colaiacovo was still a promising 26 year old defensemen when they got traded
Problem with Cola was that he was probably related to Salo (eg., injury prone).

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10-25-2012, 01:45 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
That's what's being being reported, whether you want to agree with it or not.
I'm saying Gillis receiving Gardiner +++ isn't grounded in reality. Nobody is reporting this is something being seriously considered at this point.

They 'reported' Gillis wanting the 5th overall pick as part of a Luongo trade. Doesn't mean I gave it zero chance of happening at the time. No different here.

Dreger 'reported' the possibility of Luongo being waived. Hence why these reports shouldn't be taken too seriously.

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10-25-2012, 01:47 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
I think you're right. I'm just not comfortable with a lot of uncertainty when dealing a guy like Luongo.

Looking at this mock draft: http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/

There appears to be a bit of a drop after the 12th pick (Lazar). Ironically that's Toronto's projected pick, but I highly doubt they would pick there if they had Luongo in net. There are definitely some decent pieces after that, but less big boom type prospects and if that's the main asset coming back there's too much uncertainty for me to stomach.
We could always package our two 1st round picks and trade up.

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10-25-2012, 01:47 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Barney Gumble View Post
Problem with Cola was that he was probably related to Salo (eg., injury prone).
Similar to the Salo for Schaefer trade. You aren't likely to get a defensemen like that for a meh forward unless they come with some baggage.


Last edited by Scurr: 10-25-2012 at 01:57 PM.
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Old
10-25-2012, 02:51 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drop the Sopel View Post
I'm saying Gillis receiving Gardiner +++ isn't grounded in reality. Nobody is reporting this is something being seriously considered at this point.

They 'reported' Gillis wanting the 5th overall pick as part of a Luongo trade. Doesn't mean I gave it zero chance of happening at the time. No different here.

Dreger 'reported' the possibility of Luongo being waived. Hence why these reports shouldn't be taken too seriously.

Again, you can choose not to take them seriously. Perfectly well within your rights to do so.


I do though. Not completely, but enough to offer it legitimate consideration. And judging from the explosion of conversation generated by Cox/Botchford/Shannon etc... It seems that others do as well.

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10-25-2012, 03:03 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
I wasn't implying that Bozak was going to produce like Steen, I was only looking at the turn around in his Corsi performance. Steen started in the league earlier, so producing at an earlier age and rounding out his defensive game earlier makes sense, no? It took Steen longer than 200 games to figure it out, that's for sure.

I think Steen improving his Corsi has little to do with Bozak doing the same. Unless you're saying every younger player in TO is likely to do better out of that environment.


What we have to go on now is that Bozak is not up to snuff in that department, so is it worth trying to find out if he could be? I'd probably say it would be if he had a better offensive track record, like Steen, instead of hoping he can both improve his possession metrics _and_ sustain his production rate while being moved to a more limiting situation (3C in VAN).


Quote:
Colaiacovo was still a promising 26 year old defensemen when they got traded, Steen had 4 points in 20 games when he got dealt, I thought he was a throw in.

I definitely don't think Steen was a throw in. He had 3 seasons of top6 production to that point.

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10-25-2012, 03:28 PM
  #67
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I think Steen improving his Corsi has little to do with Bozak doing the same. Unless you're saying every younger player in TO is likely to do better out of that environment.
You asked about the effect time has on Corsi for young players, I found a guy who was able to turn it around significantly after the 200 game mark that Bozak is at now. It stands to reason players are going to get better defensively over time, I admitted that Steen is likely a rare example of that.

I do think there is something to the young guys in TO doing better out of that environment. I don't think they have been well coached while Bozak has been there, and their system play as a team was severely lacking imo. Does that excuse Bozak? No. Could it be a reason to take a chance on him? Maybe.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
What we have to go on now is that Bozak is not up to snuff in that department, so is it worth trying to find out if he could be? I'd probably say it would be if he had a better offensive track record, like Steen, instead of hoping he can both improve his possession metrics _and_ sustain his production rate while being moved to a more limiting situation (3C in VAN).
I'm not going to knock a guy that's been in the league for two and a half years for not having a long track record.

I'm a little stumped why Steen's 15 goal 20 assist campaign in 06/07 counts as top 6 production while Bozak's 15 goals and 17 assists from last season does not?

Bozak also outpaced that in his rookie season.

Steen 233gp 48 goals 74 assists 122 points .52 p/g

Bozak 192gp 41 goals 65 assists 106 points .55 p/g

That's a comparison of their first 3 seasons. Steen's first was at 21, Bozak 23. Steen had already played 4 years of pro in the SEL, Bozak came from college. Steen didn't score in the SEL, how does he have a "pedigree" that Bozak will never have?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
I definitely don't think Steen was a throw in. He had 3 seasons of top6 production to that point.
You're taking me task on minute details instead of trying to understand where I'm coming from.

Steen was traded with a young defensemen for a 40 point winger, his value is considerably more now that he's rounded out his game. Players that are already producing and playing well defensively cost a lot more to acquire. Booth was a similar type project. Had he already been producing where we expect him to, he would have cost a lot more. Higgins and Lapierre are similar examples. If you're only looking at guys that are already what you want, instead of guys you can make into what you want, you're always paying through the nose. Kassian is another one, if he didn't have any issues, no way we get him. With a little imagination and good player development you can pay 10 cents on the dollar.


Last edited by Scurr: 10-25-2012 at 04:36 PM.
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10-25-2012, 03:40 PM
  #68
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We've been talking nothing but Toronto, but I'm really hoping a deal is made with another team. Florida for instance has A LOT more interesting young pieces. Frattin, Bozak, Kadri, Colborne, etc. these are all marginal talents and prospects and every one of them has gnarly warts. Frattin is top-6 or bust type (normally they bust when they haven't done much by 24), Bozak is a depth centre with very little upside, Kadri has issues with consistancy, conditioning and playing defence, and Colborne is a rich kid that will likely never be ready to pay the price physically to make an impact at the NHL level. Personally I'd rather get some prospects that are a few years away rather than whatever mediocre prospects Toronto deems available.

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10-25-2012, 03:56 PM
  #69
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Toronto is only a talking point only because Burke whispers his every want and desire in front of a megaphone. The hockey media latches on.

There's apparently 4 or 5 teams in on this.

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10-25-2012, 03:58 PM
  #70
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Yeah all this Toronto talk gets me down. Not just because all of their pieces being "offered" are not really upgrades but because I NEVER want to see Luongo in a Maple Leafs Jersey.

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10-25-2012, 04:11 PM
  #71
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Gillis would take that deal in a heart-beat. Gardiner for Luongo, and the Canucks eat those contracts of the other three. No way would Burke include Gardiner in any deal, unless Edler was coming back the other way.
Which doesn't make much sense for the Canucks, since Edler is much better than Gardiner right now, and likely always will be.

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10-25-2012, 04:16 PM
  #72
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Yeah all this Toronto talk gets me down. Not just because all of their pieces being "offered" are not really upgrades but because I NEVER want to see Luongo in a Maple Leafs Jersey.
I want to see the Canucks win a Stanley Cup. Having a real #1 defense-man would help with that quest. Gardiner will be a #1. Edler will not.

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10-25-2012, 04:19 PM
  #73
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Gardiner will be a #1. Edler will not.
No doubt! If that Edler kid can't figure it out by 26 it's never gonna happen

I should have said 27, I forgot we always round up on our board.


Last edited by Scurr: 10-25-2012 at 04:31 PM.
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10-25-2012, 04:24 PM
  #74
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Hahah

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10-25-2012, 04:26 PM
  #75
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Any team with two #1 Ds certainly have no need for a Roberto Luongo.

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