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2012-13 Lockout Discussion Part V: The "Back to square one" Edition

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10-25-2012, 04:03 PM
  #701
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Originally Posted by haveandare View Post
Also, I don't believe for one second that the PA is prepared to not get paid for two years. They would and will split long before then.
They are prepared to have the owners cut off their own nose to spite their face.

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10-25-2012, 04:08 PM
  #702
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They are prepared to have the owners cut off their own nose to spite their face.
By doing the exact same thing? Potentially losing 100% of this year's earnings to avoid a 12% paycut?

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10-25-2012, 04:09 PM
  #703
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Well if Fehr believes that I've got a bridge to sell him. The history of just about every single sports labor strife paints a pretty clear picture of where the leverage lies. Players do not win sports labor negotiations unless it is unintentional (see 2005 NHL CBA).
Take a look at the history of Fehr in MLB. I would not say that they players were loosers.
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Sure, NHL owners have some fixed costs. But a lot of these costs (arena leases being the big one) can be minimized through other ways (booking more concerts/events for example).
Yes, but that only benefits the owners if they own the arena. If MSG books a concert, Dolan does not share int eh profit.
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Also, as painful as it may be, the owners collectively will not be directly personally impacted to the same degree players are.
I do not disagree, but millionaires watch every last basis point. Many times, much more so than any Main Street type. To pick a mid point on a franchise, is around $200m. There is NO millionaire can handle that will have a $200m albatross hanging around their neck, incur costs, make absolutely no money, and stare and greatly decreased revenues in the near and far future (2 years of playing for free on teh NBC contract will HURT A LOT).
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A lost year of earnings for the superstar players is bad enough. But for the 50%+ of the PA that are 3rd/4th liners, enforcers, 35+ veterans, etc. a lost year of earnings is potentially disastrous.
You are not wrong. But the owners will give A LOT on these gigantic investments that they have made.

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10-25-2012, 04:09 PM
  #704
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By doing the exact same thing? Potentially losing 100% of this year's earnings to avoid a 12% paycut?
But think of how stupid the face will look without its nose.

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10-25-2012, 04:09 PM
  #705
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By doing the exact same thing? Potentially losing 100% of this year's earnings to avoid a 12% paycut?
In my opinon, yes. Because Bettman and the owners have galvanized them THAT much. Maybe I am wrong. But this is how I see it.

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10-25-2012, 04:11 PM
  #706
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Because the players hired him so that they do not get bent over. And they will follow him.

I do not disagree But I beleive that they will follow Fehr.

yes, but when the club has not brought in ANY income, value goes down Rangers are worth what? I do not recall, but lets' say between $400-500. Maybe more. If this season is canceled, the sole revenue that they bring in is from the season tickets being sold. The anciliary revenue is gone. But not teh anciliary fixed expenses. Now go to next year. Now there is not one penny from ticket sales either. Now you have an albatross of an investment and the fixed expenses that go with it, and NOTHING else. Not only that, but with two canceled seasons, the NHL will now play the last two years of the television contract completely for free.

IMO, THAT is what Fehr believes will eventually break the owners.
Follow Fehr? Yep. That's why he was brought in.

Even better, As the NHL revenues fall the owners will be looking to:

A)Raise the players share of the revenues?
B)Go for a 50/50 split with the players
c)Offer the players a deal in line with tumbling profits/losses?

Welcome to the nuclear winter.

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10-25-2012, 04:17 PM
  #707
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Yes, but that only benefits the owners if they own the arena. If MSG books a concert, Dolan does not share int eh profit.

I do not disagree, but millionaires watch every last basis point. Many times, much more so than any Main Street type. To pick a mid point on a franchise, is around $200m. There is NO millionaire can handle that will have a $200m albatross hanging around their neck, incur costs, make absolutely no money, and stare and greatly decreased revenues in the near and far future (2 years of playing for free on teh NBC contract will HURT A LOT).
I guess my follow up question is, if arena leases are out, what costs will really be dragging the owners down to the point of making them crack?

Labor and arena costs are the big 2. Players don't get paid, which is why some owners in the red are more than happy to keep the lights off. Arena deals probably hurt the most but can be minimized as I indicated above. Sales & Operations employees will be laid off or kept on if their teams can afford it - and if they can afford it the team is well-off enough where it's a drop in the bucket for the owners.

I agree that the biggest cost for the owners will be lost future revenues (fan support and NBC). But that will come back to the players just as bad. It will hurt a bit, sure, but I guess I just don't see where the owners are going to be financially hurting enough to crack.

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10-25-2012, 04:22 PM
  #708
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I guess my follow up question is, if arena leases are out, what costs will really be dragging the owners down to the point of making them crack?
The teams sign leases with the arena. They have to continue to pay those leases no matter what. They are not cheap. There are other fixed cost as well, but I do not have a team's financial statment to say exactly what they are. I presume that they keep paying all staff except for thsoe who have been laid off and the players. Some other costs as well. The minor leagues are still playing and getting paid.
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Arena deals probably hurt the most but can be minimized as I indicated above.
There is no miminizing deals. MSG could care less about Dolan's problems. He pays no matter what. Fill the empty days with concerts and he still pays. Dolan's MSG expense is fixed. They are not going to cut him a deal.
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Sales & Operations employees will be laid off or kept on if their teams can afford it - and if they can afford it the team is well-off enough where it's a drop in the bucket either a drop in the bucket for the owners.
There are costs with laying off as well.
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I agree that the biggest cost for the owners will be lost future revenues (fan support and NBC). But that will come back to the players just as bad. I guess I just don't see where the owners are going to be financially hurting enough to crack.
Adn it is more than just fan support. It is loss of sponsors. It is loss being able to build on a season financially (see LA Kings right now). You do not see it, becuase you are not the one who has a $200 million investment in a team.

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10-25-2012, 04:24 PM
  #709
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Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze View Post
I guess my follow up question is, if arena leases are out, what costs will really be dragging the owners down to the point of making them crack?

Labor and arena costs are the big 2. Players don't get paid, which is why some owners in the red are more than happy to keep the lights off. Arena deals probably hurt the most but can be minimized as I indicated above. Sales & Operations employees will be laid off or kept on if their teams can afford it - and if they can afford it the team is well-off enough where it's a drop in the bucket for the owners.

I agree that the biggest cost for the owners will be lost future revenues (fan support and NBC). But that will come back to the players just as bad. It will hurt a bit, sure, but I guess I just don't see where the owners are going to be financially hurting enough to crack.
The owners won't crack.

However, there is a point of pain for both sides that might facilitate a slightly better deal for the players than they have now.

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10-25-2012, 04:27 PM
  #710
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The teams sign leases with the arena. They have to continue to pay those leases no matter what. They are not cheap. There are other fixed cost as well, but I do not have a team's financial statment to say exactly what they are. I presume that they keep paying all staff except for thsoe who have been laid off and the players. Some other costs as well.

There is no miminizing deals. MSG could care less about Dolan's problems. He pays no matter what. Fill the empty days with concerts and he still pays. Dolan's MSG expense is fixed. They are not going to cut him a deal.

There are costs with laying off as well.

You do not see it, becuase you are not the one who has a $200 million investment in a team.
MSG? They own the garden and the Rangers (as well as the KNicks). Am I correct?

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10-25-2012, 04:40 PM
  #711
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"@NYP_Brooksie: If NHL wipes out Nov, will for punitive purposes only. No reason games can't start Thanksgiving weekend if agreement is reached within 2 wks"

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10-25-2012, 04:41 PM
  #712
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In my opinon, yes. Because Bettman and the owners have galvanized them THAT much. Maybe I am wrong. But this is how I see it.
I disagree but I see your logic.

I haven't seen much evidence that the players are that galvanized, and even if they are, its one thing to be galvanized in the fall and it's another thing entirely to feel the same in the spring after losing out on a year's income and looking at the prospect of losing that much all over again. Yeah, they're rich, but wealth is relative to lifestyle. I doubt many of the guys on the low end of the totem pole are going to be willing to sell their houses or something in order to win this Pyrrhic victory.

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10-25-2012, 04:57 PM
  #713
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MSG? They own the garden and the Rangers (as well as the KNicks). Am I correct?
If Dolan owns everything, then he does not feel the pain of making rental payments.

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10-25-2012, 05:00 PM
  #714
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I haven't seen much evidence that the players are that galvanized, and even if they are, its one thing to be galvanized in the fall and it's another thing entirely to feel the same in the spring after losing out on a year's income and looking at the prospect of losing that much all over again.
From all that I read and see and hear, it sounds like the players are good and ticked off at Bettman and the owners. Bettman's antics (walking out 10 minutes into a session) have backfired this time out. The players feel like they were taken advantage of and are tired of having Bettman bully them.
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I doubt many of the guys on the low end of the totem pole are going to be willing to sell their houses or something in order to win this Pyrrhic victory.
Agreed, but the 4th liners are not the ones driving the union.

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10-25-2012, 05:13 PM
  #715
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Article from Puck Daddy I thought was a good read.

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I would argue that the proposal wasn't designed to save the 82-game season so much as it was designed to look like it was designed that way, thereby making the players seem like a bunch of jerks when they looked it over and came to the reasonable conclusion that it wasn't for them.

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10-25-2012, 05:28 PM
  #716
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I liked the one about the casual fan, because thats how I feel the lockout has affected me most. Ive gone from diehard to casual. Ill always support the Rangers, history, etc.

It just made me realize how much I shouldnt be "living" for my team, and that the most important part of it all really is the business itself. Not buying anymore merchandise save for one jersey. No more tickets. Ill just watch them on tv, like I always have. Hockey on the other hand, ill always love. Hockey itself wont toy with my emotions or leave me like the NHL does. Its obvious whats more important to both sides.

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10-25-2012, 06:37 PM
  #717
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Article from Puck Daddy I thought was a good read.
Anyone who took a few minutes to actually interpret what there proposal was could see that it was just a ploy by the Owners to make them look like they were "really trying". Which was further confirmed when they flat out said that they would not allow the NHLPA to tweak it except for minor, insufficient things.

I was on the Owners side at the start, but the more and more I read over the months, it became obvious they have zero intention of wanting the players back on the ice until they get every little thing they want and have no interest in being fair in the negotiations.

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10-25-2012, 07:07 PM
  #718
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Mike Rupp ‏@Rupper17
I have been in the room/on the calls. Don Fehr is absolutely carrying out the wishes of the players. #lockoutfact

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10-25-2012, 07:19 PM
  #719
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Mike Rupp ‏@Rupper17
I have been in the room/on the calls. Don Fehr is absolutely carrying out the wishes of the players. #lockoutfact
I was just about to post this!

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10-25-2012, 07:35 PM
  #720
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Mike Rupp ‏@Rupper17
I have been in the room/on the calls. Don Fehr is absolutely carrying out the wishes of the players. #lockoutfact
Kind of makes you think this is going to go on a bit longer than we suspect...

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10-25-2012, 08:03 PM
  #721
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I agree with this post 100% because I am just as frustrated as you are. It seems at this point there won't be any season, so just pulling the plug completely would make this whole thing so much easier on all of us. I am pulling the hair out of my head trying to understand why they say "If the offer isn't accepted by the 25th its off the table", yet they refuse to have any kind of negotiations on the days leading up to it or on the said "deadline date"
I keep telling myself there is no way these idiots miss another season in just under a decade.

I might have underestimate the level of idiots we're witnessing here.

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10-25-2012, 08:08 PM
  #722
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Some pretty interesting developments in hockey world tonight... stay tuned
mirtle 8:53pm via TweetDeck

Oh, quit ****ing with us, mirtle.

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10-25-2012, 08:10 PM
  #723
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Just read a bunch of that ****** post.

I get that all contracts are subject to CBAs and can change thusly. But I want to ask Leopold if contracts are so out of whack, why did you offer Suter and Parise $93m each? If they aren't worth every red cent why offer it?

Jacobs, if you have leverage over Seguin, why didn't you exert the power you are only too happy to yield now and sign him to a team friendly deal? Why did you absolutely bribe him on the eve of the lockout?

Phase in the deal.

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10-25-2012, 08:11 PM
  #724
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mirtle 8:53pm via TweetDeck

Oh, quit ****ing with us, mirtle.
Subway series rosters? Ovechtrick in the KHL?

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10-25-2012, 08:13 PM
  #725
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I keep telling myself there is no way these idiots miss another season in just under a decade.

I might have underestimate the level of idiots we're witnessing here.
This might be my last post until the lockout is over so here goes:

The owners are egotistical, slave masters, who are monetarily successful babies who want things on their own terms.

The players... Are just idiots.

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