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Luongo Thread - Waiting on the World to Change (Mod Warning in OP)

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Old
10-25-2012, 05:09 PM
  #76
CanuckLuck
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Originally Posted by Barney Gumble View Post
Any team with two #1 Ds certainly have no need for a Roberto Luongo.
Not sure if that's sarcasm but the Predators would have disagreed. That team is bunk without Rinne.

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10-25-2012, 05:13 PM
  #77
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Not sure if that's sarcasm but the Predators would have disagreed. That team is bunk without Rinne.


Probably more like the team would be bunk without Trotz.

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10-25-2012, 05:18 PM
  #78
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Probably more like the team would be bunk without Trotz.
the mobster penguin

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10-25-2012, 06:25 PM
  #79
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What's going on??
I agree with Pauser.

If there's any hockey this year, it's bound to be a condensed shedule; Luongo will be much more valuable to us than a 3C.

It also would be somewhat unfair to hand the reins to Schnieder with so many games compressed together and Lack as his back up. This on top of our typical travel.

I say we keep Lou until closer to the deadline.

That way TO's first will be a lot lower!

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10-25-2012, 06:30 PM
  #80
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I want to see the Canucks win a Stanley Cup. Having a real #1 defense-man would help with that quest. Gardiner will be a #1. Edler will not.
There's no gurantee Gardiner will be actually. He's got a great stride but has yet to take the next step. There are a lot of dmen that have great starts.

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10-25-2012, 06:58 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
You asked about the effect time has on Corsi for young players, I found a guy who was able to turn it around significantly after the 200 game mark that Bozak is at now. It stands to reason players are going to get better defensively over time, I admitted that Steen is likely a rare example of that.


Except that I'm not sure Steen is an example of that, as opposed to any young player improving. While there are some that do, others stay the same, or decline. Take Lee Stempniak for example: His best Corsi season occurred when he was 26 in PHX. Since then, lower numbers. He doesn't even give you a steady Corsi On rating with the same team, so environment is not a factor in (non variable).


Specifically, I think your arbitrary threshold analysis is faulty/inconclusive. If we are talking strictly about Corsi On, then Steen posted a positive 2.43 Corsi in his last year in TO. His next two years in STL, he was at -1.94 and -0.87 and respectively. Better environment, worse Corsi... In his last two seasons he's posted impressive 15.20 and 23.69 Corsi seasons. But does this tell us that every young player has this marked improvement? No. Not conclusively.


Nor does it outline a change of environment as the cause, as his 2 seasons post TO were _worse_ than his numbers in TO. Further, Stempniak's numbers fluctuated wildly within the same environment.




Quote:
I do think there is something to the young guys in TO doing better out of that environment. I don't think they have been well coached while Bozak has been there, and their system play as a team was severely lacking imo. Does that excuse Bozak? No. Could it be a reason to take a chance on him? Maybe.

How much of it is on the player himself then? Grabovski seems to have flourished under the same coaching [By the way, do you have a comment on the disparity between the two as far as Bozak's far worse possession numbers by comparison?). MacArthur broke out in TO. Kulemin cut his teeth there. Gardiner etc...


Would Paul Maurice create a bad environment as well? Because that was Steen's tutor.


Quote:
I'm not going to knock a guy that's been in the league for two and a half years for not having a long track record.

I'm not knocking him for his track record, I'm questioning his effectiveness to this point. With whatever record he does have.



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I'm a little stumped why Steen's 15 goal 20 assist campaign in 06/07 counts as top 6 production while Bozak's 15 goals and 17 assists from last season does not?

Bozak also outpaced that in his rookie season.

Steen 233gp 48 goals 74 assists 122 points .52 p/g

Bozak 192gp 41 goals 65 assists 106 points .55 p/g

That's a comparison of their first 3 seasons. Steen's first was at 21, Bozak 23. Steen had already played 4 years of pro in the SEL, Bozak came from college. Steen didn't score in the SEL, how does he have a "pedigree" that Bozak will never have?


35~ point threshold is the top6 cut off based on the article by Jonathon Willis. So Bozak's 06/07 campaign falls just short.


Pedigree = Done a lot more when younger. In his draft year, Steen posted gaudy numbers in the Swedish junior league (38 points in 23 games), while also being good enough to play the SEL for 26 games. WJC numbers were 8 pts in 8 games... He also posted 2 top6 seasons before Bozak even broke into the league. Yeah I'm not sure why you are contesting pedigree here...?


As to your first 3 seasons argument, age matters here. Steen posted those numbers while younger than Bozak and less physically mature/conditioned. It matters a lot _when_ production occurs, especially at a younger age.



Quote:
You're taking me task on minute details instead of trying to understand where I'm coming from.

Steen was traded with a young defensemen for a 40 point winger, his value is considerably more now that he's rounded out his game. Players that are already producing and playing well defensively cost a lot more to acquire. Booth was a similar type project. Had he already been producing where we expect him to, he would have cost a lot more. Higgins and Lapierre are similar examples. If you're only looking at guys that are already what you want, instead of guys you can make into what you want, you're always paying through the nose. Kassian is another one, if he didn't have any issues, no way we get him. With a little imagination and good player development you can pay 10 cents on the dollar.


The assumptions here is that Bozak, or any prospective player that is undervalued will rebound here like the others have - I'm not so sure that's a balanced expectation.


You bring up another point, what makes you think you will get Bozak at 10 cents on the dollar? Did he not post 47 points last year? I would think his value has gone up because of that, perhaps even a little inflated. Would that be worth paying for? I dunno.

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Old
10-25-2012, 07:20 PM
  #82
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Bozak sucks. That is all.

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10-25-2012, 07:36 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Bozak sucks. That is all.

My analysis or Y2K's, which one wins!?

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10-25-2012, 07:49 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
My analysis or Y2K's, which one wins!?
I figured I'd keep it short and sweet

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Old
10-25-2012, 08:17 PM
  #85
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Honestly I don't think that highly of Bozak either. He should not be the centerpiece of a Luongo trade. He would just be a depth player in Vancouver and I don't see him improving much more as a player.

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10-25-2012, 08:52 PM
  #86
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If Gillis takes Colborne as part of the package as a consolation prize for Bjugstad, he should probably be tried out as our 3C, making Bozak a little unneccessary. I think we should focus on not predicting redundant assets.

Frattin/Biggs/Ashton
Colborne/Bozak
Rielly/Gardiner/Finn
Kulemin/Macarthur
Kadri

Can all be divided into what kind of role they would play on our team, despite varying values.

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10-25-2012, 09:00 PM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
If Gillis takes Colborne as part of the package as a consolation prize for Bjugstad, he should probably be tried out as our 3C, making Bozak a little unneccessary. I think we should focus on not predicting redundant assets.

Frattin/Biggs/Ashton
Colborne/Bozak
Rielly/Gardiner/Finn
Kulemin/Macarthur
Kadri

Can all be divided into what kind of role they would play on our team, despite varying values.
Actually to be honest bringing in Biggs and Ashton kind of intrigues me. A future 3rd line of Ashton-Gaunce-Biggs could be a wrecking crew line. But these would be secondary trade assets.

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10-25-2012, 09:16 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
35~ point threshold is the top6 cut off based on the article by Jonathon Willis. So Bozak's 06/07 campaign falls just short.
You're not serious?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
How much of it is on the player himself then? Grabovski seems to have flourished under the same coaching [By the way, do you have a comment on the disparity between the two as far as Bozak's far worse possession numbers by comparison?). MacArthur broke out in TO. Kulemin cut his teeth there. Gardiner etc...
Grabovksi is the one guy on the team with a good Corsi rating, he's the exception. He's also played for other coaches and is an experienced player. Bozak broke out under Wilson too if we're giving credit for offensive numbers and forgetting about defence.

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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
As to your first 3 seasons argument, age matters here. Steen posted those numbers while younger than Bozak and less physically mature/conditioned. It matters a lot _when_ production occurs, especially at a younger age.
Experience matters as much as age. Steen at 21 was coming off 4 years of being a pro, Bozak at 23 was coming out of junior. Who's a more mature player, the 21 year old coming form 4 years of pro or the 23 year old coming out of college?

Production can mean a lot at a younger age but Steen has stayed pretty consistent from 21-28 as far as production goes, it's not like it indicated future potential. Bozak compares well for the first 3 years and at the same age.

Bozak isn't worth this kind of attention and I don't think you even buy these arguments.


Last edited by Scurr: 10-25-2012 at 09:22 PM.
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Old
10-25-2012, 09:23 PM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
If Gillis takes Colborne as part of the package as a consolation prize for Bjugstad, he should probably be tried out as our 3C, making Bozak a little unneccessary. I think we should focus on not predicting redundant assets.

Frattin/Biggs/Ashton
Colborne/Bozak
Rielly/Gardiner/Finn
Kulemin/Macarthur
Kadri

Can all be divided into what kind of role they would play on our team, despite varying values.


Yes, removing the redundant pieces would make it clearer in what would be targeted.


I think you have it right except I would re-arrange the following:


Colborne/Kadri/Bozak

Frattin/Biggs/Ashton/Kulemin


Macarthur doesn't factor in IMO.


So one 3C and 1 RW essentially. For me, the two NHL pieces should be Colborne and Frattin. After that, it's the endless debate of Gardiner/Finn, where if Burke/TO is insistent on keeping GoldenboyGards, then Finn is settled upon and an accompanying unprotected 1st should come back as a supplement.

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10-25-2012, 09:27 PM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Yes, removing the redundant pieces would make it clearer in what would be targeted.


I think you have it right except I would re-arrange the following:


Colborne/Kadri/Bozak

Frattin/Biggs/Ashton/Kulemin


Macarthur doesn't factor in IMO.


So one 3C and 1 RW essentially. For me, the two NHL pieces should be Colborne and Frattin. After that, it's the endless debate of Gardiner/Finn, where if Burke/TO is insistent on keeping GoldenboyGards, then Finn is settled upon and an accompanying unprotected 1st should come back as a supplement.
You're right, it makes sense to have Kulemin/Frattin/Biggs/Ashton in one group.

I listed Kadri seperately because he's more likely to play wing and plays a different style game than everyone else as well.

Might as well add Lupul/JVR as well for the sake of consistency.

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10-25-2012, 09:36 PM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
You're not serious?

Refute the Jonathan Willis's article. He recognizes 34 points as the threshold, not me.


Quote:
Grabovksi is the one guy on the team with a good Corsi rating, he's the exception. He's also played for other coaches and is an experienced player. Bozak broke out under Wilson too if we're giving credit for offensive numbers and forgetting about defence.

Do you consider Corsi On offense/defense/both? Further, what's your threshold for defining "good" Corsi numbers and why?


Quote:
Experience matters as much as age. Steen at 21 was coming off 4 years of being a pro, Bozak at 23 was coming out of junior. Who's a more mature player, the 21 year old coming form 4 years of pro or the 23 year old coming out of college?

I'm going to answer this by saying that Steen did more at a younger age. Nothing you say changes that.


Quote:
Production can mean a lot at a younger age but Steen has stayed pretty consistent from 21-28 as far as production goes, it's not like it indicated future potential. Bozak compares well for the first 3 years and at the same age.

Bozak isn't worth this kind of attention and I don't think you even buy these arguments.


Did you say Bozak compares well at the same age? Please explain.


Oh I buy them. I just think your arguments on the matter are unsound because you choose to highlight specific cases (which themselves are suspect) instead of expanding your data set: To get a better/accurate picture of where Bozak might project to be (instead of guessing) you will need to show many similar players following a Corsi On increase through their development track. You would also have to show TOs negative effects on such players. Otherwise, it's just wishful thinking on your part.

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10-25-2012, 09:43 PM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
You're right, it makes sense to have Kulemin/Frattin/Biggs/Ashton in one group.

I listed Kadri seperately because he's more likely to play wing and plays a different style game than everyone else as well.

Might as well add Lupul/JVR as well for the sake of consistency.


Kadri is likely to play wing, so yes, he could be in either group. Though if he's in the RW group, he's not likely to beat out any of those options simply due to size.


While we're on the topic, Colborne is pretty risky IMO. He's not really a bottom6 player. He could go 3-4 years before breaking out a la Brian Boyle. Or he could not break out at all, while still not having a sound bottom6 game to fall back on. That said, I still take him over Bozak simply due to his upside.

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10-25-2012, 10:33 PM
  #93
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I'll love it when we trade with a team that isn't Toronto or Florida and it's players that we HAVENT been discussing to death for over 6 months.

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10-25-2012, 10:42 PM
  #94
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I'll love it when we trade with a team that isn't Toronto or Florida and it's players that we HAVENT been discussing to death for over 6 months.
That would be nice.

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10-25-2012, 10:46 PM
  #95
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Y2K, would you do Kadri, Frattin, 1st, Finn for Luongo, Sauve?


Just curious.

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10-25-2012, 11:48 PM
  #96
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I'll love it when we trade with a team that isn't Toronto or Florida and it's players that we HAVENT been discussing to death for over 6 months.
dat dere cory schenider trade

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10-26-2012, 12:44 AM
  #97
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Quote:
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Y2K, would you do Kadri, Frattin, 1st, Finn for Luongo, Sauve?


Just curious.
Not interested in quantity for quality trades. It's a better package than has been discussed before, but still not there. Would honestly rather hold on to Luongo than accept something like this.

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10-26-2012, 12:57 AM
  #98
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Not interested in quantity for quality trades. It's a better package than has been discussed before, but still not there. Would honestly rather hold on to Luongo than accept something like this.
While Kadri has Hodgson like question marks, and Frattin doesn't wow, Finn, and especially the first are good assets. I don't know about much about Finn's defensive game, but his point totals and draft status indicate he's not invaluable. The first, though, is probably the sticking point of the deal (and why Burke stubbornly won't make a deal like it). That first would be in the 16-20 range in a strong draft. With that, and the 30th pick , the Canucks would be able to restock more forward depth.

The question I have for you y2k then is, what if Frattin, who has the least upside was replaced by Kulemin (who I know you don't like) in the deal? Would you except that? Before you say "7 goal season" add "a plane full of friends crashed" and re-ask the question?

Kadri, Kulemin, a 1st and Finn... naw, it couldn't happen.

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10-26-2012, 01:33 AM
  #99
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So Luongo coming to Van for poker tourney tomorrow. How awkward is it gonna be with Reimer, Schneider and Luongo practicing with the boys at UBC this weekend? Lol. The media are gonna have a hay-day.

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10-26-2012, 09:24 AM
  #100
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I'll love it when we trade with a team that isn't Toronto or Florida and it's players that we HAVENT been discussing to death for over 6 months.
Luongo to Chicago for Patrick Kane. Kane, summer of 2013, to Nashville for Shea Weber. Is this more interesting ?

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