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Trading inside the division or not ?

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10-29-2012, 03:36 PM
  #1
palindrom
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Trading inside the division or not ?

Lets say you are the GM of a team and one of your player (a first line forward on a 2 years contract before he is UFA eligible) asked for a trade. This is a summer trade.

A team in the same division offer you a 14th overall + late second (50th)
A team in the other conference offer you a mid first (15th overall)

(these pick could also be used as currency to acquire players who could help you immediately, you can use past trade as reference to see what you can get for similar round pick, the point is, its an inferior vs superior offer)

Do you trade the player to the division rival or to the team from the other conference ?

If you chose the offer from the other conference, then how much more would it take for you to accept to trade the player to a division rival?

On the other side, If you chose the offer from the division rival, then i ask you, how much less would it take so you would trade the player to the other conference instead?


Last edited by palindrom: 10-29-2012 at 03:45 PM.
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10-29-2012, 03:42 PM
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Tony Clifton Leaf
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Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
Lets say you are the GM of a team and one of your player (a first line forward on a 2 years contract before he is UFA eligible) asked for a trade.

A team in the same division offer you a 14th overall + mid second (44th)

A team in the other conference offer you a mid first (15th overall)

Do you trade the player to the division rival or to the team from the other conference ?

If you chose the offer from the other conference, then how much more would it take for you to accept to trade the player to a division rival?

On the other side, If you chose the offer from the division rival, then i ask you, how much less would it take so you would trade the player to the other conference instead?
It depends on both: how good your team currently is and how good the team in your division is. If your team has no realistic shot of making the playoffs, it doesn't really matter if a divisional rival gets better in the short term so I would easily make the trade within the division.

If you're a contending team (in actuality a contending team would pretty much never trade a first line forward for picks, but this is a hypothetical situation), what really matters is how good the team in your division is. If they suck, and don't pose any true threat to your chances you might as well make the trade within the division. But if they're already a good team, and adding a first-line forward could put them over the top I would trade with the team from the other conference.

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10-29-2012, 03:43 PM
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Vankiller Whale
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I would take the best deal possible, always. The point of hockey is to win, not make other teams lose.

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10-29-2012, 03:44 PM
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palindrom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobloblawLeaf View Post
It depends on both: how good your team currently is and how good the team in your division is. If your team has no realistic shot of making the playoffs, it doesn't really matter if a divisional rival gets better in the short term so I would easily make the trade within the division.

If you're a contending team (in actuality a contending team would pretty much never trade a first line forward for picks, but this is a hypothetical situation), what really matters is how good the team in your division is. If they suck, and don't pose any true threat to your chances you might as well make the trade within the division. But if they're already a good team, and adding a first-line forward could put them over the top I would trade with the team from the other conference.
i modified a little bit my OP about this. Taking your thought into consideration

The pick can be used as trade currency to obtain immediate help.

The idea is its a better offer vs an inferior offer. Pick, prospect or actual player doesn't really matter

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10-29-2012, 03:45 PM
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Not nearly enough information. If the trade makes my team better enough to the point where I can get more points (taking into account losing maybe a couple more, because I face the division rival more), I'd do it.

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10-29-2012, 03:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I would take the best deal possible, always. The point of hockey is to win, not make other teams lose.
So making the best offer among all the NHL teams is enough for division rival. No need for overpayment?

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10-29-2012, 03:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
So a division rival only need to make the best deal among all the NHL teams. No need for overpayment?
Nope. At least not for me.

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10-29-2012, 03:48 PM
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Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
So a division rival only need to make the best deal among all the NHL teams. No need for overpayment?
You have to take into account how the extra games you face them in will affect how much you improve overall, but it's not likely to make a huge difference.

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10-29-2012, 03:52 PM
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Depends on the team, and whats involved. If Edmonton, Calgary, Colorado and Minnesota offered more then someone else in conference for a big asset...they'd be in contention, but it's more of a tie-breaker for me.

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10-29-2012, 03:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Arrch View Post
You have to take into account how the extra games you face them in will affect how much you improve overall, but it's not likely to make a huge difference.
Usually the player you get will help you 82 game per years (not taking injuries into account).

The player you trade, you will face him 6 times per years inside the division vs 2 times per years if he is in the other conference (not taking injuries into account).
(also a division realignment could change who are the division rival and the numbers of game against).

Since this is a summer trade, it is hard to predict playoff. But yes, there could be a chance that both team meet in the playoff.

But you have also to take into account: if you doesn't accept the division rival offer, he could still use his draft pick to get quality help, going to his second option presumably somewhat inferior than your offer, but he could also get lucky and improve even more than if you accepted his deal.


Last edited by palindrom: 10-29-2012 at 04:05 PM.
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10-29-2012, 03:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Nope. At least not for me.
I would do that same thing. Have to worry about your own team and your own future instead of worrying about rivals. If you always gear things towards your in division rivals you are ignoring 25 other teams in the league who now have a better chance at beating you due to you not taking the best available offer.

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10-29-2012, 04:05 PM
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Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
But you have also to take into account: if you doesn't accept the division rival offer, he could still use his draft pick, to get quality help, maybe even better than your player if he get lucky.
Yes, and you also have to take into account that draft pick may end up being a bust, so by not accepting the offer, you made them much worse. We're not talking about the uncertainty of what will happen after the trade it is made, we're talking about the anticipated effect of both teams. If you think the offer from the opposing conference will make you just as good of a team as the offer from the division rivals, you take the opposing conferences offer.

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10-29-2012, 04:06 PM
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You always do what's in the best interest of your Team. In some instances that means taking less to ship a Player out of Conference.

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10-29-2012, 04:09 PM
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Originally Posted by ACC1224 View Post
You always do what's in the best interest of your Team. In some instances that means taking less to ship a Player out of Conference.
Maybe if your GM is desperate.

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10-29-2012, 04:10 PM
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Thinking about this.

Does the OP remind you a little bit of the Kessel trade ?

Boston have to face Kessel 6 time per year.
What if they choose to send him to Atlanta-Winnipeg instead to avoid having to face him ?

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10-29-2012, 04:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
Thinking about this.

Does the OP remind you a little bit of the Kessel trade ?

Boston have to face Kessel 6 time per year.
What if they choose to send him to Atlanta-Winnipeg instead to avoid having to face him ?
I think they're very happy with how things turned out.

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10-29-2012, 04:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
Thinking about this.

Does the OP remind you a little bit of the Kessel trade ?

Boston have to face Kessel 6 time per year.
What if they choose to send him to Atlanta-Winnipeg instead to avoid having to face him ?
Kessel has somewhat of a say where he would go, not the same.

Probably more like Richards or Carter.

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10-29-2012, 04:13 PM
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Lou Lamoriello declined a better offer from Philadelphia for Jamie Langenbrunner, and traded him to Dallas instead.

He used Toronto as an intermediary to acquire Martin Skoula at the deadline a few years ago because he didn't want to deal with Pittsburgh directly.

I'm pretty sure the only divisional team Lou has ever traded with is the Isles, and only two deals post-lockout: Lukowich for futures and the Rolston/Hunter swap.

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10-29-2012, 04:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Arrch View Post
Yes, and you also have to take into account that draft pick may end up being a bust, so by not accepting the offer, you made them much worse. We're not talking about the uncertainty of what will happen after the trade it is made, we're talking about the anticipated effect of both teams. If you think the offer from the opposing conference will make you just as good of a team as the offer from the division rivals, you take the opposing conferences offer.
Point taken

Lets keep in mind that the idea of the thread is you get a better offer from the rival vs a somewhat inferior offer from outside the conference. The offer are not equal.

Its doesn't really matter if the offer are players, pick or prospect, the point is: the odds are the better offer will get you better. But also refusing the trade to a rival will not help them as much as if you accept it.


Last edited by palindrom: 10-29-2012 at 04:38 PM.
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10-29-2012, 04:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AfroThunder396 View Post
Lou Lamoriello declined a better offer from Philadelphia for Jamie Langenbrunner, and traded him to Dallas instead.

He used Toronto as an intermediary to acquire Martin Skoula at the deadline a few years ago because he didn't want to deal with Pittsburgh directly.

I'm pretty sure the only divisional team Lou has ever traded with is the Isles, and only two deals post-lockout: Lukowich for futures and the Rolston/Hunter swap.
Interesting indeed, do you have source? i would like to read about it.

I wonder, was it Pittsburgh who wanted to avoid trading Skoula to NJ. But Skoula ended there anyways ? It would show it could be pointless to avoid division rivals.

Just imagine this scenario from my OP: you accept an inferior offer to trade the player to the other conference. But your rival can still bring their offer to the other team and get the player anyway. The intermediate team will make a plus value in the process and make you look like a dumb GM. Avoiding to trade with a division rival open the door to a scenario like this to happen.

Anyone remember the Hackett trade from Montréal to SJ for Sunstrom, then Hackett was traded back to Boston for Kyle McLaren?


Last edited by palindrom: 10-29-2012 at 04:31 PM.
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10-29-2012, 04:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
Lets keep in mind that the idea of the thread is you get a better offer from the rival vs a somewhat inferior offer from outside the conference. The offer are not equal.

Its doesn't really matter if the offer are players, pick or prospect, the point is: the odds are the better offer will get you better. And doing so, refusing the trade to a rival will nit help him as much as if you accept it.
Again, it depends. If I'm going to win an extra 10 games by trading with Buffalo, or 12 games by trading with Anaheim. I may wish to send my player out East if I think that I'll lose 3 more games against Anaheim. Then you have to take into account how it will affect my chance in the post season. Does this trade mean Anaheim is going to make the playoffs and make it much more difficult to get out of the 2nd round? Or does this take them from a lottery team to a 10-11 finish?

There are too many variables to try and dumb it down to it makes you better but it makes your division rival better too.

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10-29-2012, 04:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrch View Post
Again, it depends. If I'm going to win an extra 10 games by trading with Buffalo, or 12 games by trading with Anaheim. I may wish to send my player out East if I think that I'll lose 3 more games against Anaheim. Then you have to take into account how it will affect my chance in the post season. Does this trade mean Anaheim is going to make the playoffs and make it much more difficult to get out of the 2nd round? Or does this take them from a lottery team to a 10-11 finish?

There are too many variables to try and dumb it down to it makes you better but it makes your division rival better too.
Just for fun, does anyone have time to simulate a similar scenario (trading inside vs outside the division, better vs inferior offer) with EAsport NHL 13?
(of course it would require trading for actual players instead of pick)

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10-29-2012, 04:44 PM
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I dont see why people wouldnt trade within division. A few reasons:

- divisions dont matter as much in hockey as in other sports. Its 6/82 games per division compared to slightly higher proportions of games being within-division in the other sports, and playoffs arent based on division winners either like MLB or NFL
- its a two-way trade. You want to get the best value for your trade, if youre trading within a division to get the best value... Guess what... That means THEY also have to play against what they traded you
- to be the best you have to beat the best. So if you have to make an in-division trade to get the piece or assets needed to become a true contender, then do it

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10-29-2012, 04:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I would take the best deal possible, always. The point of hockey is to win, not make other teams lose.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grant View Post
I would do that same thing. Have to worry about your own team and your own future instead of worrying about rivals. If you always gear things towards your in division rivals you are ignoring 25 other teams in the league who now have a better chance at beating you due to you not taking the best available offer.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ACC1224 View Post
You always do what's in the best interest of your Team. In some instances that means taking less to ship a Player out of Conference.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 416Leafer View Post
I dont see why people wouldnt trade within division. A few reasons:

- divisions dont matter as much in hockey as in other sports. Its 6/82 games per division compared to slightly higher proportions of games being within-division in the other sports, and playoffs arent based on division winners either like MLB or NFL
- its a two-way trade. You want to get the best value for your trade, if youre trading within a division to get the best value... Guess what... That means THEY also have to play against what they traded you
- to be the best you have to beat the best. So if you have to make an in-division trade to get the piece or assets needed to become a true contender, then do it
So what about all these ''it would require an overpayment to trade inside the division" talks, we often see on this forum ? Is that a kinda selfish wishful thinking ?

Can we agree making the best offer among all other teams is usually enough, no need for overpayment on top of that?

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10-29-2012, 04:59 PM
  #25
Vankiller Whale
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Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
So what about all these ''it would require an overpayment to trade inside the division" talks, we often see on this forum ? Is that a kinda selfish wishful thinking ?

Can we agree making the best offer among all other teams is enough, no need for overpayment on top of that?
Yeah. I think the whole thing is overrated.

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