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what if oilers get 1st overall pick in 2013 draft?

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Old
10-28-2012, 12:44 PM
  #126
rockinghockey
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Originally Posted by Hynh View Post
Agreed. From what I hear, people complain that Barkov isn't dynamic enough to be an elite center. Good thing Edmonton is full of dynamic wingers. I want either

Hartikainen-RNH-Eberle
Hall-Barkov-Yak
Paajarvi-Gagner-Hemsky
Smyth-Horcoff-Belanger

or

Smid-Petry
Klefbom-Schultz
Marincin/Musil-Jones

If the Oilers somehow manage to be picking first I hope the teams in 2/3 are under pressure to get a major star, Crosby-style. Phoenix, Dallas, Anaheim, Long Island and Columbus could be lured into the MacKinnon hype and give up some good value for him.
I like the top two lines but the 3rd line not so much. I would have a 3rd line of:
PRV/Harti; Lander; Pitlick

That gives you some nice size and defensive depth that can still score

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Old
10-28-2012, 02:10 PM
  #127
Hynh
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Originally Posted by rockinghockey View Post
I like the top two lines but the 3rd line not so much. I would have a 3rd line of:
PRV/Harti; Lander; Pitlick

That gives you some nice size and defensive depth that can still score
I see the lines being rolled out so that the Barkov/Horcov lines start in the D zone while the other two start in the O zone.

Barkov is supposed to be a quite capable defensive player, playing the PK and being greatly improved at faceoffs. Hall (and I'm presuming Yak) are great at getting the puck down ice and producing chances so combining the three gives you a line that you can put out against decent competition in the D zone.

RNH's line is great at producing when starting in the O zone.

Gagner's line should be able to provide good tertiary scoring without having to worry about playing too much defense.

Horcov takes all the terrible zone starts in the "faceoff, get off" role.

Of course, when everyone starts to come off their ECLs the cost of having three full scoring lines will be really high so trading Gagner and Hemsky while replacing them with prospects becomes the expected result.

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Old
10-29-2012, 06:41 AM
  #128
thadd
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Originally Posted by Muad'Dib View Post
Based on Gregor's article, Edmonton would only have a 2 percent chance of getting the 1st overall pick if this season is cancelled and the 2005 Draft rules were used.

http://oilersnation.com/2012/10/25/n...-impacts-draft

Because we have had three 1st overall selections in the past four years we would only have one ball in the draft lottery. Based on Gregor's calculations there would be a total of 50 balls in the lottery. Calgary, Toronto, Winnipeg, Carolina, Columbus, Dallas and Minnesota would have the best odds of getting the 1st overall pick.
That math doesn't work in my mind.

Edmonton already HAS had three first overall picks.
The fact that Edmonton just got an overall pick doesn't change the odds of them getting another one.
Every time it's time to find out who drafts first the odds are the same whether your team picked last or second last or didn't draft at all.

Predicting odds for the next, two, three and four drafts in the future, though... yeah it works that way.

If every team was given one ball every year and any team could draft first and Edmonton got their name picked first ten years in a row, now matter how impossible it sounds, they'd still be sitting at the 11th draft with a 1/30 chance of it happening.

It happening is so unlikely that it would scare the hell out of people.

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Old
10-29-2012, 06:54 AM
  #129
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Originally Posted by thadd View Post
That math doesn't work in my mind.

Edmonton already HAS had three first overall picks.
The fact that Edmonton just got an overall pick doesn't change the odds of them getting another one.
Every time it's time to find out who drafts first the odds are the same whether your team picked last or second last or didn't draft at all.

Predicting odds for the next, two, three and four drafts in the future, though... yeah it works that way.

If every team was given one ball every year and any team could draft first and Edmonton got their name picked first ten years in a row, now matter how impossible it sounds, they'd still be sitting at the 11th draft with a 1/30 chance of it happening.

It happening is so unlikely that it would scare the hell out of people.
The point is, not every team gets one ball. Some get two and a few get three. The over total is 50, leaving the Oilers with a one in fifty chance.

Of course we do not know for sure that they would use the same system this year as they did the last time.

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Old
10-29-2012, 07:14 AM
  #130
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
Of course we do not know for sure that they would use the same system this year as they did the last time.
I'd trade the chance at the first overall for a better chance of picking in the top 5/10. Perhaps assigning balls based on average point totals in the past 3 years, with the Oilers barred from picking first. 60 balls total, finish top 10 in points you get 1 ball, middle 10 you get 2, bottom 10 you get 3.

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Old
10-29-2012, 08:12 AM
  #131
ManByng
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^i'm not holding my breath that my Oilers will draft high if there's no season and we go with the ball system. it's already been posted on these boards that the Oil apparently had 2 balls in '05 after the last lockout cancelled the season and ended up picking 25th, so if we were to get only 1 ball this time, i'd expect to pick no higher than mid 1st tops.

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10-29-2012, 09:29 AM
  #132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Puritania View Post
Pretty sure this thread is with the scenario of a lost season and a lottery in mind. Otherwise I would hope no one is hoping for more turd eating by this team.

With that said, this is how I'd love to see the lottery order played out...

30 - Vancouver Canucks
29 - Calgary Flames
...
...
...
02 - Edmonton Oilers
01 - Pittsburgh Penguins.

This board would be such an incredible hot mess, it would be so much fun.
Who would the Penguins draft? Like really... would they trade Malkin or something in a few years and go with BPA? They're not even in desperate need of a d-man... that's a really confusing idea.

Honestly I'd rather see

1. Washington - Even before getting Forsberg they had some good prospects. This will put them over the top and secure their future for a long time with the young d-men they've got.

2. Edmonton - 4 in a row would drive people beyond insane. If this whole season is written off we could brag about having so many rookies, yet being a playoff contender. (Schultz, Yakupov, 2nd overall d-man, Hartikainen and maybe Marincin)

3. Penguins - Keeps them with high quality fresh young legs to compete with Washington.

4. Phoenix - Tired of watching them play. With some better players they might actually be fun to watch.

5. Redwings - Don't like seeing them looking like a playoff bubble team.

Bottom 5:

26: Calgary - would love to watch them pick another guy slated to be a 3rd rounder and listen to them tell us that he's the next great one.
27: Philly - Never appreciated them. They don't need the pick.
28: Toronto - So that they can make 101 proposals we can say no to.
29: Vancouver - They don't need it.
30: L.A see Vancouver

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10-29-2012, 09:32 AM
  #133
thadd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
The point is, not every team gets one ball. Some get two and a few get three. The over total is 50, leaving the Oilers with a one in fifty chance.

Of course we do not know for sure that they would use the same system this year as they did the last time.
Well if this year is jiffed they had two options IMO:

Do a lottery based on last year's lottery. (We're getitng another lottery pick)
Give everyone an equal chance. (Should be this way every year so that teams don't tank, but I enjoy the early picks)

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10-29-2012, 09:37 AM
  #134
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I don't even care if we pick above #30 this year, I just want #1 for the insanity that would follow on the general board.

It was a quality trolljob getting #1 this summer.

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Old
10-29-2012, 12:46 PM
  #135
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post
Who would the Penguins draft? Like really... would they trade Malkin or something in a few years and go with BPA? They're not even in desperate need of a d-man... that's a really confusing idea.

Honestly I'd rather see

1. Washington - Even before getting Forsberg they had some good prospects. This will put them over the top and secure their future for a long time with the young d-men they've got.

2. Edmonton - 4 in a row would drive people beyond insane. If this whole season is written off we could brag about having so many rookies, yet being a playoff contender. (Schultz, Yakupov, 2nd overall d-man, Hartikainen and maybe Marincin)

3. Penguins - Keeps them with high quality fresh young legs to compete with Washington.

4. Phoenix - Tired of watching them play. With some better players they might actually be fun to watch.

5. Redwings - Don't like seeing them looking like a playoff bubble team.

Bottom 5:

26: Calgary - would love to watch them pick another guy slated to be a 3rd rounder and listen to them tell us that he's the next great one.
27: Philly - Never appreciated them. They don't need the pick.
28: Toronto - So that they can make 101 proposals we can say no to.
29: Vancouver - They don't need it.
30: L.A see Vancouver
The only reason I'd want Pittsburgh to win is because HF would explode in sheer lunacy. Between Pittsburgh winning the Crosby sweepstakes and our lovely lotto ways, HF would be ******** on an unprecedented scale if a new lottery shook down this way.

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10-29-2012, 03:11 PM
  #136
taunting canadian
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post
Well if this year is jiffed they had two options IMO:

Do a lottery based on last year's lottery. (We're getitng another lottery pick)
Give everyone an equal chance. (Should be this way every year so that teams don't tank, but I enjoy the early picks)
Gregor's article is based on the third option, also known as the actual option that the league did use when they did miss a year. In that lottery (the Crosby sweepstakes), teams with recent playoff appearances or first overall picks got less balls in the lottery than other teams.

That's why the odds are different for each team.

I'd say that this form of draft lottery is a very real possibility, probably more likely than your two options, given that it's the format that they did actually use last time around.

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10-29-2012, 03:23 PM
  #137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by taunting canadian View Post
Gregor's article is based on the third option, also known as the actual option that the league did use when they did miss a year. In that lottery (the Crosby sweepstakes), teams with recent playoff appearances or first overall picks got less balls in the lottery than other teams.

That's why the odds are different for each team.

I'd say that this form of draft lottery is a very real possibility, probably more likely than your two options, given that it's the format that they did actually use last time around.
That's what they say happened. I don't think its any coincidence that the team that needed Crosby the most got him. If we miss the entire season look for Phoenix to be picking Mackinnon at the draft.

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Old
10-29-2012, 03:28 PM
  #138
Jules Winnfield
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post
Who would the Penguins draft? Like really... would they trade Malkin or something in a few years and go with BPA? They're not even in desperate need of a d-man... that's a really confusing idea.
No doubt the Pens would take Mackinnon and play him on Sid's RW.

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Old
10-29-2012, 04:55 PM
  #139
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Trade down then try and find Jankowskis brother/cousin in late first round

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Old
10-29-2012, 06:14 PM
  #140
ManByng
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Puritania View Post
The only reason I'd want Pittsburgh to win is because HF would explode in sheer lunacy. Between Pittsburgh winning the Crosby sweepstakes and our lovely lotto ways, HF would be ******** on an unprecedented scale if a new lottery shook down this way.
ooooo...MacKinnon on the wing with Sid or Malkin....

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