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Old
10-31-2012, 01:50 PM
  #51
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There's no way McGinn goes on the 1st line.

Anyway, I say Duchene can rebound next season. Sacco destroyed his confidence by putting him on the 3rd/4th line. He's been working hard this off-season and training with Crosby. So... here would be my top 9:

Landeskog - Stastny - Jones
Parenteau - Duchene - Downie
McGinn - O'Reilly - Hejduk

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10-31-2012, 01:56 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by PeterTheGreat View Post
Nah, Hunwick was pretty good last year.

Hannan is meh. Theres a reason why he's been unsigned till late august/september the last couple years. Hes not that good.

Yeah, Hunwick was good. He played very well after Quincey was traded to DET, and the Avs' D looked so much better. Only thing is, I really don't like having Hunwick at 1.6M... Way too much for a guy who'll most likely be a benchwarmer for 60-70% of the 82 games. But all in all, he had a great attitude last season. Amazing skater too I might add.

But would I put him in the top 6? Nah... But the Avs officially got themselves a legit 7th defenseman.

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10-31-2012, 02:23 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by HockeyFan100 View Post
There's no way McGinn goes on the 1st line.

Anyway, I say Duchene can rebound next season. Sacco destroyed his confidence by putting him on the 3rd/4th line. He's been working hard this off-season and training with Crosby. So... here would be my top 9:

Landeskog - Stastny - Jones
Parenteau - Duchene - Downie
McGinn - O'Reilly - Hejduk
I would bet you anything in the would the lines to start the season is going to be:
McGinn-Stastny-Jones
Landeskog-O'reilly-Downie
Pareanteau-Duchene-Hejduk

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10-31-2012, 03:02 PM
  #54
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I would bet you anything in the would the lines to start the season is going to be:
McGinn-Stastny-Jones
Landeskog-O'reilly-Downie
Pareanteau-Duchene-Hejduk
I have to agree with you that those are probably the most probable lines but I don't agree with them at all.

Landeskog needs to be tried with Duchene, and you don't sign a UFA winger to a new deal and new team only to move him off of his natural position. I'd be much more comfortable seeing Downie moved to the LW side as he won't be relied on nearly as much for scoring.

McGinn - Stastny - Jones / They will at least have a chance to continue the chemistry they had at the end of last season, and if they do then they are easily a 1A 1B line. If they don't Jones becomes the Avs albatross contract and pretty much a 3rd liner being paid 4M per year.

Landeskog - Duchene - Parenteau / Landeskog and Duchene at least need a good look together, they are our best and brightest. I'm not saying it will or won't work but it needs to be tried for a bit to see. Parenteau and Landeskog would create a lot of space for Duchene and vice versa...

Downie - O'Reilly - Hejduk / Olver - O'Reilly - Downie / Rookie - O'Reilly - Downie : O'Reilly and Downie can be an effective force even when their line isn't scoring.

McLeod - Mitchell - Hejduk/Kobasew

With our RW depth we really need Hejduk to be about 5 years younger and a LW... His ability to play a top 9 role is the biggest question mark on the team IMO. Without him there is a hole in the top 9.

It's also pretty obvious with Hejduk's statements about giving up the captaincy, that he has zero expectations of being on a scoring line or in the top 6. And that's exactly where Duchene needs to be...

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Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
I would be overjoyed if Crosby could impart some sort of vision onto Duchene. Wishful thinking I guess.

But it's good to hear he's doing well and hopefully back on track as a player. Anyone know the background story on how Duchy and Crosby ended up training together in the first place?
They are both Reebok endorsed, and the only two I am aware of. Duchene got his endorsement shortly after being drafted and I believe Crosby and Duchene spent time together as a result of that. I think with Duchene and Crosby being similar type players (Size and Position, and Duchene's potential to be an elite player) it's easy to see why Duchene latched onto him and wants to learn as much as possible from him.

That's really the only rock solid connection that has been publicized, that I am aware of anyways. Also I do think that if anyone can tell Duchene something and have it stick... It would be Crosby, I can only hope as good of a playmaker as Crosby is that he impressed upon Duchene the need to use his linemates more. That's one of the things Crosby does best.

From what little we have heard about his time playing over seas, he seems to be setting up his linemates and making a lot of unselfish plays that are not being finished off. As well as being more physical on top of it. So there is hope I think...

I think Duchene has good character in all areas (Work ethic, drive) except being quite hard headed. I keep remembering in Duchene's draft day video him snapping off at his dad, and his dad pretty much just taking it. Obviously at 18 that happens but, it just highlights how hard headed and cocky he can be. His comments as of late seem to suggest that hes becoming at least a bit more humble and mature though.

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Originally Posted by anguscertified View Post
I interviewed Sidney Crosby's trainer last week - he spent time this summer working with Duchene. And he (biased, maybe) thinks Duchene is back on track.



http://www.anguscertified.com/an-int...u-andy-obrien/
Great read, thanks for posting that.


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Old
10-31-2012, 09:17 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by HockeyFan100 View Post
There's no way McGinn goes on the 1st line.

Anyway, I say Duchene can rebound next season. Sacco destroyed his confidence by putting him on the 3rd/4th line. He's been working hard this off-season and training with Crosby. So... here would be my top 9:

Landeskog - Stastny - Jones
Parenteau - Duchene - Downie
McGinn - O'Reilly - Hejduk
McGinn played with Stastny and Jones , last year and they had a really good chemistry togetter ... Just like Lando O'Reilly and Downie. In hockey , it's always about chemistry and those 6 guys have some great chemistry togetter.


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10-31-2012, 10:17 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by cgf View Post
Downie's the perfect sandpaper player to stick next to Dutchy and PAP, he's a passer offensively, one who's used to playing with goal scoring centermen. That's why I'm rooting for that line to get a shot together at some point.
Downie is probably exactly what Duchene needs. A line with PA and Hejduk night do well but swapping Hejduk and Downie almost seems like a nobrainer. Downie will give them a better presence along the boards and in front of the net while Hejduk would add a different element to the other line.

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10-31-2012, 11:32 PM
  #57
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McGinn is going to be on the first line for sure. so long as Stastny line is the 1 line.

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10-31-2012, 11:41 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Frenchy View Post
McGinn played with Stastny and Jones , last year and they had a really good chemistry togetter ... Just like Lando O'Reilly and Downie. In hockey , it's always about chemistry and those 6 guys have some great chemistry togetter.
But you can't rely on a guy who's supposed to be on the 3rd line be in the top 3. If you ask me, McG only played well because he was with Stastny. I don't think it would hurt to play Stastny with Landy to see how they do.

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11-01-2012, 12:19 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by HockeyFan100 View Post
But you can't rely on a guy who's supposed to be on the 3rd line be in the top 3. If you ask me, McG only played well because he was with Stastny. I don't think it would hurt to play Stastny with Landy to see how they do.
If it aint broke dont fix it

we have a nice group of six that play dynamic together
Dutch is the odd man out right now, Hopefully PAP can find some chemistry
with him like Flash or Mueller.

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11-01-2012, 12:28 AM
  #60
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But you can't rely on a guy who's supposed to be on the 3rd line be in the top 3. If you ask me, McG only played well because he was with Stastny. I don't think it would hurt to play Stastny with Landy to see how they do.
I agree that Landeskog and Stastny should be tried... at some point. Start the season with what has worked and make changes if they need to be made.

Either way, Jamie McGinn wasn't a product of Stastny. He's one of the better shooters on the team(which isn't saying much). What's to say he can't be a 25 goal 2nd liner?

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11-01-2012, 12:47 AM
  #61
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Man, I wish we had drafted Bartschi. He would've made a great winger for Duchene, we woulda made out like bandits on that draft.

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11-01-2012, 07:53 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by ColAvsFan View Post
I agree that Landeskog and Stastny should be tried... at some point. Start the season with what has worked and make changes if they need to be made.

Either way, Jamie McGinn wasn't a product of Stastny. He's one of the better shooters on the team(which isn't saying much). What's to say he can't be a 25 goal 2nd liner?
TBH, I have a Yip-like feeling with McGinn. When Yip potted all his goals I said that he wouldn't be able to repeat his success, he was shooting at too high of a percentage and really wasn't all that talented.

While it's not as severe with McGinn, I have a feeling we won't be seeing much more than 15ish goals from him next season, maybe 20 (which isn't even close to the pace he scored with us, even if he hits 20). It's not a case of being untalented, but moreso of simply being lucky, working hard to impress a new coach and getting favorable opportunities when he arrived.

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11-01-2012, 10:15 AM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
TBH, I have a Yip-like feeling with McGinn. When Yip potted all his goals I said that he wouldn't be able to repeat his success, he was shooting at too high of a percentage and really wasn't all that talented.

While it's not as severe with McGinn, I have a feeling we won't be seeing much more than 15ish goals from him next season, maybe 20 (which isn't even close to the pace he scored with us, even if he hits 20). It's not a case of being untalented, but moreso of simply being lucky, working hard to impress a new coach and getting favorable opportunities when he arrived.
Strangely, I feel completely the opposite. Yip was set to be a 3rd-4th line player when he reached the NHL (the fact that he actually made it was surprising enough for me) in my opinion anyways. He always seemed to me like he was such a north-south guy with limited stickhandling and passing abilities. While he was able to put up 20 goals in 45 games in his final year of college hockey, at age 24, that's not really that impressive. The goals he actually DID score as an Av, always seemed to be due to good fortune and good positioning rather than actually being a good goalscorer, so as time wore on, his scoring touch was due to dry up.

Meanwhile, with McGinn, he scored 46 goals the year he was drafted for the 67s. Then he went on to post 19 goals in 47 games his first year pro for Worcester and then he got called up. (I'm guessing because of injuries but not sure) In my opinion, had he been left down there to continue to work on his game, he would have been way better off in the long run, instead of bringing him up to fill-in a spot with limited minutes on the 3rd or 4th lines. Throughout his time in San Jose thereafter, he kept getting shipped up and down from their farm team to the big club. They probably 'tried' him on their top 2 lines but with the teams they have had in San Jose the past 5 years, he wasn't realistically going to steal a spot from one of their veterans.

But for me, it's not just that, it's the 8 goals he scored and all of the chances he got as soon as he came over to the Avs. He immediately glued with Stastny and Jones and improved the chemistry between those two and jump-started that line. Sure there were a couple of garbage goals (that's part of his game as well) but if I remember correctly, most of them were laser-beams that left the opposing goalies little chance. You also have to keep in mind that he just turned 24 years old we should still be in line to see better things from him in the years to come.

I'm not saying he's going to be a 30 goal-scorer as early as next season but 20-25 certainly wouldn't shock me (over a FULL season) and he might even be able to surpass that someday.

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11-01-2012, 01:11 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Drizzt1 View Post
Ok, granted, but the critical turnovers I repeatedly saw him do at the wrong end of the ice, or his being pushed of the puck like a light weight, or him looking around the rink aimlessly as the puck projected into the net behind him does.

The guy isn't NHL quality from what I see. I think Barrie showed 10 times the nouse Hunwick has in his limited opportunity.

Yes, Hunwick looked better as we finished the season (mind you, we lost 6 of our last 7) so his affect on the team when it comes to positive results isn't there.
I have no problem with the Avs playing either Hunwick and/or O'Brien as 6th/7th defensemen - I believe they're both reasonably adept at doing so. The issue I have, is that the Avs tried both guys as partners with EJ last season (1st pairing stuff), and neither of those guys are good enough to do that. They were grossly exposed, but that doesn't mean they'd play like that, given "normal" 3rd pairing responsibilities.

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Originally Posted by Drizzt1 View Post
BrickAHL, we have better options than Hunwick as our 7th - 8th D-man.
+ Stefan Elliott
+ Tyson Barrie
+ Cameron Gaunce

Heck, from what I have seen early on, Pock looks ok as well. At least he's a presence on the ice.
I disagree with this. I do NOT want to see the Avs putting Elliott or Barrie as their 7th/8th dman, because that would require the two of them sitting for long periods of time, thus screwing their development as potential 1st/2nd pairing regulars a few years down the road. The Avs already likely ruined one season of Elliott's development. I don't want to see another. Those guys need to play, and play a lot. AHL, please.

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11-01-2012, 01:16 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
TBH, I have a Yip-like feeling with McGinn. When Yip potted all his goals I said that he wouldn't be able to repeat his success, he was shooting at too high of a percentage and really wasn't all that talented.

While it's not as severe with McGinn, I have a feeling we won't be seeing much more than 15ish goals from him next season, maybe 20 (which isn't even close to the pace he scored with us, even if he hits 20). It's not a case of being untalented, but moreso of simply being lucky, working hard to impress a new coach and getting favorable opportunities when he arrived.
I believe McGinn is a much, much better skater than Yip (and I didn't dislike Yip at all), thus I believe his production will be both better and more predictable. I don't believe that what the Avs saw from him at the end of last season is really indicative of what we'll see in the future, however.

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11-01-2012, 01:31 PM
  #66
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I have no problem with the Avs playing either Hunwick and/or O'Brien as 6th/7th defensemen - I believe they're both reasonably adept at doing so. The issue I have, is that the Avs tried both guys as partners with EJ last season (1st pairing stuff), and neither of those guys are good enough to do that. They were grossly exposed, but that doesn't mean they'd play like that, given "normal" 3rd pairing responsibilities.



I disagree with this. I do NOT want to see the Avs putting Elliott or Barrie as their 7th/8th dman, because that would require the two of them sitting for long periods of time, thus screwing their development as potential 1st/2nd pairing regulars a few years down the road. The Avs already likely ruined one season of Elliott's development. I don't want to see another. Those guys need to play, and play a lot. AHL, please.


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I believe McGinn is a much, much better skater than Yip (and I didn't dislike Yip at all), thus I believe his production will be both better and more predictable. I don't believe that what the Avs saw from him at the end of last season is really indicative of what we'll see in the future, however.
A couple of great posts.

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11-01-2012, 01:35 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
TBH, I have a Yip-like feeling with McGinn. When Yip potted all his goals I said that he wouldn't be able to repeat his success, he was shooting at too high of a percentage and really wasn't all that talented.

While it's not as severe with McGinn, I have a feeling we won't be seeing much more than 15ish goals from him next season, maybe 20 (which isn't even close to the pace he scored with us, even if he hits 20). It's not a case of being untalented, but moreso of simply being lucky, working hard to impress a new coach and getting favorable opportunities when he arrived.
I completely agree with Bender here, but what he didn't site is McGinn's career shooting percentage. It wasn't luck at all, his career shooting percentage is 10.8%. With a couple of 11.5% or better seasons and one season where he wasn't able to score for some reason and put up a 1.5% shooting percentage, that brought his average down quite a bit.

2006-2007 Ottawa 67's-OHL 68 G46 43 89 -4 49 21 3
2006-2007 Worcester Sharks-AHL 4 1 1 2 -1 4 0 0 0
2007-2008 Ottawa 67's-OHL 51 G29 29 58 10 54 11 3
2007-2008 Worcester Sharks-AHL 8 0 2 2 -4 0 0 0
2008-2009 Sharks 35 4 2 6 -6 2 1 0 1 27 14.8%
2008-2009 Worcester Sharks-AHL 47 19 11 30 4 52 8 0 1
2009-2010 Sharks 59 10 3 13 -3 38 0 0 2 76 13.2%
2009-2010 Worcester Sharks-AHL 27 7 14 21 5 15 4 1 3
2010-2011 Sharks 49 1 5 6 -6 33 0 0 0 63 1.6%
2010-2011 Worcester Sharks-AHL 30 9 11 20 -7 27 3 2 2 78 11.5%
2011-2012 Sharks GP 61 12 12 24 1 26 3 0 0 S 104 11.5%
2011-2012 Avalanche GP 17 8 5 13 -4 11 3 0 2 S 55 14.5%
NHL Totals 221 35 27 62 -18 110 7 0 5 325 10.8%

McGinn also has a legit history of being a goal scorer in junior as well. The other big change is his shots per game, he went from averaging 1.7 shots per game and about 11 minutes a night with the Sharks to averaging 3.23 shots per game and about 16 minutes per night.

In interviews on his way over to the Avs before even playing a game he had talked about being told he was going to get more ice time, and also eluded to scoring goals as being a focus.

I think they had known about and followed McGinn long before we acquired him and completely thought that there was a possibility that they could find a diamond in the rough based on some of those numbers.

Lastly McGinn was able to score on the power play and connect with other players as well when it comes to scoring, not even close to all of his goals or points came connected to Stastny. McGinn was the first one of guys like Jones and Stewart who I felt didn't completely ride Stastny's playmaking ability. McGinn got quite a few points with his speed and by working hard down low and driving to the net. I think his work ethic, a rise in ice time, and better line-mates all can legitimately explain better numbers that are not exactly outside of what he has shown glimpses of in the past.

14.5% may not be a number he can sustain over a full season, but I do believe 11.5-12.5% is within his abilities based on what hes done. 3.23 SHPG X GP 82 is 265 shots over an 82 game season. 12% of even 230 shots is 28 goals (27.6), yeah I think McGinn has a very good chance of hitting 25 goals or better over a full season playing 1st line minutes with Stastny. I personally think he can hit 30 but that's the optimist in me.

(10.8% of 265 is 28.6G / 11.5% of 265 is 30.5G / 12.5% of 265 is 33G / 14.5% of 265 is 38.5G ...) My guess is Greg from accounting could do this math in his head when looking at McGinn's statistical history.


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11-01-2012, 03:17 PM
  #68
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Ugh...SEL is hard to watch.

Reminds me of all the reasons why I DON'T watch soccer.

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11-01-2012, 04:05 PM
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Looking at cobra's post, if you round some numbers down, use his 10.8% career % instead of any high number, use 3 shots per game instead of the 3.26 he averaged with us, and project 82 games, he could very realistically wind up with 25-27 goals which would be fantastic, depending on if the rest of his game continues justifying the kinds of minutes he would need to do that.

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11-01-2012, 04:42 PM
  #70
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Landy-Dutch-PAP makes, on paper, a lot of sense, as it's arguably Colorado's three best forwards with their best powerforward, best sniper, and best/2nd best playmaker.

Assuming McGinn-Stastny-Jones retain their chemistry from last season, they would also work well together as a PF-playmaker-sniper line.

Then I'd do Olver-ROR-Downie. Bumping ROR down to the third line seems somewhat spiteful after the great year he had, but I wouldn't expect him to lead the team in scoring again unless the team has serious injuries and I think his icetime is better spent against impact forwards. Downie works as the agitator and Olver is the first guy out on the forecheck.

The 4th line is whatever collection of Mitchell, McLeod, Kobasew, and Hejduk work the best.

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11-01-2012, 04:45 PM
  #71
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Downie with Duchene please.

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11-01-2012, 04:47 PM
  #72
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And which line will be used against opposing top lines?

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11-01-2012, 08:18 PM
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And which line will be used against opposing top lines?
Olver - O'Reilly - Downie is quite the third line, both O'Reilly and Downie have played against top 6 competition quite a bit.

McGinn - Stastny - Jones also played against a lot of teams first lines and out played them as well.

And Landeskog and Parenteau are quite use to playing against the other teams toughest competition on a regular basis. If Duchene uses his speed to back check like he did the first two years that line will be fine defensively as well.

Honestly I think anyone of our top 3 lines could just be rolled at just about any point. Maybe on nights where you're playing a Stamkos or the Sedin twins you put Landeskog and O'Reilly out at key times as well.

Everyone knows that certain lines may play a majority of the game together but all coaches and especially Sacco have no problem juggling the line combinations as needed.

I wouldn't even be surprised if against slower teams McGinn & Duchene are put together because of their speed and skating ability. We will see a lot of line combinations but when I come up with line combos I am basically putting out the lines I think should be relied on for offense. IE the first half of a period, times when we are down, and at the end of the game if we are down.

Obviously the lines will be setup in stronger defensive combinations when needed. We all know how Sacco operates...

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Originally Posted by Nihiliste View Post
Looking at cobra's post, if you round some numbers down, use his 10.8% career % instead of any high number, use 3 shots per game instead of the 3.26 he averaged with us, and project 82 games, he could very realistically wind up with 25-27 goals which would be fantastic, depending on if the rest of his game continues justifying the kinds of minutes he would need to do that.
This is exactly my point... McGinn was on pace for 20 goals getting third line minutes and playing with grinders before he was traded. Every historical statistic supports him pacing at 25 or more goals if given the ice time and line mates. I think 25 is what we should expect and anything beyond that is a bonus (For him to stay in the top 6 of course), but I for one will not be surprised if he hits or passes 30 goals.


Last edited by CobraAcesS: 11-01-2012 at 08:23 PM.
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11-05-2012, 08:53 PM
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Joe Sakic
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Ok I just have to say this...what had caused so many of you Avalanche faithful to give up on Duchene and decrease his value so much after a single bad year? And by the way, if you followed the team last year (and I'm sure just about 100% of the people on this board did) you would know that he was injured almost all of least year, and he was visibly playing through it.

Instead of focusing on his one bad, injury filled year, why not talk about his rookie year where he put up 55 points? Or the year after where he avoided the always common "sophomore slump" and put up 67 points?

I'm not trying to bash anyone or anything, but I would truly like to know...why have so many of you de-valued Matt Duchene so much recently?

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11-05-2012, 09:00 PM
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Lonewolfe2015
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Most people haven't, only the impatient ones. But there's also a level of understanding that other teams won't value Duchy as high as he should be worth, so asking for that level of worth is just asking for an argument in the trade section.

For the record, he did really have a tough year. It's not without merit the people that are somewhat down on him. But there's enough evidence to support the season as an anomly to not be too worried.

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