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2012-13 Lockout Discussion Part VI: The "What Comes Before Square One?" Edition

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11-02-2012, 12:56 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by GordonGecko View Post
The fans will come back, they always do. We're suckers for punishment
Fair, but I think that this one is different. I think that there will be damage done to the hard core fanbase. One that a lost season will not bring back.

I also think that there will be permanent revenue lost. If you are HBO, why would you offer a 24/7 again? I also think that teh Winter Classic will permanently loose sponsors. Between that and lost fans, I think that the owners will be hurting for the duration of their ownership. In other words, I doubt that a $3 billion revenue stream will be hit again.

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11-02-2012, 01:15 PM
  #27
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My gut is telling me that they'll cancel it today and then IF talks are fruitful they could bring it back to life... But that's a huge IF.

I can't believe they'd thumb their collective noses at Bridgestone & the rest of the sponsors AND NBC & HBO like this... But I guess that's the point. "Blow it up! Destroy all that's been built... about face the momentum. Damn the torpedoes! Who cares about soccer gaining on us?!!! We want our money!!!"
What makes you think they are "thumbing their noses". There are operational reasons why they needed to cancel at this point in time, and for partners many of them missed their opportunities to fully leverage this platform since they operate on bigger lead times. They will be made whole on their contractual promises, I'm also sure they have been keenly aware with constant communication with what might and has occurred.

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11-02-2012, 01:56 PM
  #28
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Time to find a new favorite sport. Think I'm going to become a soccer fan.
Join us. The Redbulls have a playoff game tomorrow night in DC and a home game at Red Bull Arena on Wednesday night.

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11-02-2012, 01:59 PM
  #29
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What makes you think they are "thumbing their noses". There are operational reasons why they needed to cancel at this point in time, and for partners many of them missed their opportunities to fully leverage this platform since they operate on bigger lead times. They will be made whole on their contractual promises, I'm also sure they have been keenly aware with constant communication with what might and has occurred.
If you don't think this is a big FU to HBO and especially NBC you're off your rocker. NBC as a whole is hemmoraging money & losing #s... Especially on the NBC Sports channel. They signed the NHL to a huge contract making them a gem in their crown. Think they're happy about no programming on NBC Sports and no big game on New Year's Day? Why do you think they've signed F1 and soccer in the past month?

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11-02-2012, 02:02 PM
  #30
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If you don't think this is a big FU to HBO and especially NBC you're off your rocker. NBC as a whole is hemmoraging money & losing #s... Especially on the NBC Sports channel. They signed the NHL to a huge contract making them a gem in their crown. Think they're happy about no programming on NBC Sports and no big game on New Year's Day? Why do you think they've signed F1 and soccer in the past month?
If the entire season is wiped out, NBC will not get their money back from the NHL, but instead they will get a year added on at the end of the deal. They are definitely happy with that.

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Old
11-02-2012, 02:38 PM
  #31
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If you don't think this is a big FU to HBO and especially NBC you're off your rocker. NBC as a whole is hemmoraging money & losing #s... Especially on the NBC Sports channel. They signed the NHL to a huge contract making them a gem in their crown. Think they're happy about no programming on NBC Sports and no big game on New Year's Day? Why do you think they've signed F1 and soccer in the past month?
You're right, the NHL is cancelling the Winter Classic to give NBC and HBO the finger.


Quote:
NHL Cancels '13 Winter Classic, Hockeytown Festival Due To Lockout
The NHL has cancelled the '13 Maple Leafs-Red Wings Winter Classic at Michigan Stadium as a result of the ongoing lockout. The league also cancelled all Hockeytown Festival events scheduled for Dec. 16-31 at Comerica Park. The next Winter Classic will take place at Michigan Stadium (NHL). The NHL needed "at least six weeks to begin construction of both rinks at U-M and Comerica," along with "ample time to begin publicizing the event and begin to get sponsorships in order" (DETROITNEWS.com, 11/2).

There were reports Friday that the NHL "was considering waiting for another two weeks to cancel the game." But league sources said that the "logistics of the event, all the tickets and hotels and part-time workers required to hold events in two different locations, all conspired to make holding the event with less than 60 days to pull it off became impractical" (THESTAR.com, 11/2).

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11-02-2012, 03:05 PM
  #32
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If the entire season is wiped out, NBC will not get their money back from the NHL, but instead they will get a year added on at the end of the deal. They are definitely happy with that.
They are NOT happy with that. The year is added at the end of the contract... NBC sports is dying right now an may not be around at that time. This is impacting that channel more than you're letting on.

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11-02-2012, 03:07 PM
  #33
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I feel bad for Leaf fans.

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11-02-2012, 03:07 PM
  #34
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You're right, the NHL is cancelling the Winter Classic to give NBC and HBO the finger.
I never said that is "why" they're doing it. I said it is a big FU to them because they need the programming at the moment... And the ratings.

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11-02-2012, 03:11 PM
  #35
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I never said that is "why" they're doing it. I said it is a big FU to them because they need the programming at the moment... And the ratings.
HBO does not need the NHL. NHL needs HBO. And they took a big step to loosing one of the biggest coups that they ever made. There is no guarantee that HBO will return to the NHL.

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11-02-2012, 03:13 PM
  #36
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I feel bad for Leaf fans.
At least they're still undefeated.

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11-02-2012, 03:37 PM
  #37
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HBO does not need the NHL. NHL needs HBO. And they took a big step to loosing one of the biggest coups that they ever made. There is no guarantee that HBO will return to the NHL.
I was referring to NBC there.

You right about HBO. That's one of the many reasons that this had gotten way out of control. One of the only things that everyone would agree has been good during bettmans tenure is the WC. They're undoing a lot of good with its cancellation.

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11-02-2012, 04:51 PM
  #38
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Bye bye NHL season.

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11-02-2012, 04:55 PM
  #39
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They are NOT happy with that. The year is added at the end of the contract... NBC sports is dying right now an may not be around at that time. This is impacting that channel more than you're letting on.
In about 10 years, how much do you think the NHL will ask per year for rights to their games? I believe it's currently $180MM. With how much sports teams and leagues have been getting recently, I don't think it would be much of a stretch to say they will get around $400MM per year. NBC would be saving around $200MM for that year.

NBC Sports Network is obviously doing terrible, but I think they would be willing to last a year without the NHL.

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11-02-2012, 05:06 PM
  #40
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In about 10 years, how much do you think the NHL will ask per year for rights to their games? I believe it's currently $180MM. With how much sports teams and leagues have been getting recently, I don't think it would be much of a stretch to say they will get around $400MM per year. NBC would be saving around $200MM for that year.

NBC Sports Network is obviously doing terrible, but I think they would be willing to last a year without the NHL.
You realize this is the first contract the NHL has made money on as far as TV rights don't you? Prior to this, the NHL paid to have their product on the air (network wise, including espn back in the day). Your estimate of 400M may be close given the record revenues of the past but don't you think this lost year will damage that?

The NHL's tenuous hold of the highly debateable #4 spot isn't as solid as you would think. Soccer is getting bigger every second. I wouldn't count on record setting ratings or revenues when they finally decide to drop the puck. And as I said before... If NBC Sports goes belly up due to lack of interest in bull-riding in the meantime, the national audience will dry up and NBC the network will want no part of the Mickey Mouse league that lost two seasons in under a decade due to labor. I'm sure espn can't wait to get their hands on it for espn 8 "the ocho" though.

But whatever... They know what they're doing. Right?

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11-02-2012, 05:09 PM
  #41
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"As we just discussed on Sportscentre. NHL advised PA it will absorb share of Make Whole provision. This is a considerable concession."

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11-02-2012, 05:10 PM
  #42
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You realize this is the first contract the NHL has made money on as far as TV rights don't you? Prior to this, the NHL paid to have their product on the air (network wise, including espn back in the day). Your estimate of 400M may be close given the record revenues of the past but don't you think this lost year will damage that?

The NHL's tenuous hold of the highly debateable #4 spot isn't as solid as you would think. Soccer is getting bigger every second. I wouldn't count on record setting ratings or revenues when they finally decide to drop the puck. And as I said before... If NBC Sports goes belly up due to lack of interest in bull-riding in the meantime, the national audience will dry up and NBC the network will want no part of the Mickey Mouse league that lost two seasons in under a decade due to labor. I'm sure espn can't wait to get their hands on it for espn 8 "the ocho" though.

But whatever... They know what they're doing. Right?
No, I don't think it will damage that. The lockout will be long forgotten by then, just like how the last one was forgotten when they signed their current deal.

And on the second bolded part, awesome reference.

When this lockout is over, I'm fully confident in saying that NBC is going to make out like bandits.

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11-02-2012, 05:12 PM
  #43
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Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger

As we just discussed on Sportscentre. NHL advised PA it will absorb share of Make Whole provision. This is a considerable concession.
Progress, but the NHLPA should've presented this as their counter proposal weeks ago (along with other changes), rather than pull their three alternatives stuff.

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11-02-2012, 05:22 PM
  #44
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Progress, but the NHLPA should've presented this as their counter proposal weeks ago (along with other changes), rather than pull their three alternatives stuff.
Preach. If egos didn't get in the way, and they started negotiating when the NHL wanted to negotiate, we could be done with this lockout by now.

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11-02-2012, 05:25 PM
  #45
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https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/sta...88981226471424

"As we just discussed on Sportscentre. NHL advised PA it will absorb share of Make Whole provision. This is a considerable concession."
Sorry for my ignorance, and I havent been able to follow what was going on the past week, but what exactly is "Make Whole provision"? I don't remember hearing that expression over the past few months.

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11-02-2012, 05:26 PM
  #46
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No, I don't think it will damage that. The lockout will be long forgotten by then, just like how the last one was forgotten when they signed their current deal.

And on the second bolded part, awesome reference.

When this lockout is over, I'm fully confident in saying that NBC is going to make out like bandits.
Thanks.

My point though is that NBC may not have a Sportschannel at that point, and having that black eye they (and parent company Comcast) may want no part of it on a national stage. Relegated again to local markets only, the NHL will feel the pinch in revenue.

It may not happen. All may be good in the end, but it's a tremendous risk IMO.

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11-02-2012, 05:28 PM
  #47
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https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/sta...88981226471424

"As we just discussed on Sportscentre. NHL advised PA it will absorb share of Make Whole provision. This is a considerable concession."
Expect Fehr to counter with demand owners absorb entire share (thus not having a 50/50 split in reality) and for these talks to die again

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11-02-2012, 05:29 PM
  #48
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Well, this is where I thought we were going to go eventually. The question was who was going to make the first move. IMO, the next several concessions now have to come from the players. The PA waited them out, but I think the league is getting close to their end game and there isn't much left to give from their point of view without significant movement from the union.

Get the whole make-whole excluded from the cap, give the league 50/50, goose rev sharing a little more, compromise on max deal length at 6 or 7 years, leave arbitration and UFA alone. Done deal.

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11-02-2012, 05:30 PM
  #49
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Thanks.

My point though is that NBC may not have a Sportschannel at that point, and having that black eye they (and parent company Comcast) may want no part of it on a national stage. Relegated again to local markets only, the NHL will feel the pinch in revenue.

It may not happen. All may be good in the end, but it's a tremendous risk IMO.
NHL doesn't have to worry about this for 9 years ,, Who knows what TV landscape/etc looks like at that time

Comcast views NHL as just part of its strategy to build viable national sports network. Expect them to be heavy in next round of NCAA/NFL rights negotiations and never doubt the possiblity that NFL Network sells off the Thursday night game eventually to NBCsports.

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11-02-2012, 05:31 PM
  #50
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Well, this is where I thought we were going to go eventually. The question was who was going to make the first move. IMO, the next several concessions now have to come from the players. The PA waited them out, but I think the league is getting close to their end game and there isn't much left to give from their point of view without significant movement from the union.

Get the whole make-whole excluded from the cap, give the league 50/50, goose rev sharing a little more, compromise on max deal length at 6 or 7 years, leave arbitration and UFA alone. Done deal.
Problem is Fehr and PA showed with there 3 proposals they have no desire to actually achieve 50/50 split as the owners want

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