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Part 4|GM#12:Toronto @ Oklahoma City|13/11/2012|11:30AM|Stars that don't shine

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11-03-2012, 01:44 PM
  #401
TheNorthFace
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Kadri-Colborne-Komarov totaled 5 shots last night. 5 shots hardly make or break a game for a goaltender as a whole.

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11-03-2012, 01:50 PM
  #402
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Originally Posted by ULF_55 View Post
That's what I was thinking.
That's the problem with excuses, they have loopholes in logic.

Hard to praise and discredit at the same time when the two items are directly linked, where one is the offset of the other.

It would have been better to praise Irving for standing on his head, to help explain Marlies struggles on the scoresheet last night. But then that would have supported your theory of Flames prospect in net was also promising for the organization.

Top flame prospects Horak and Bartschi had no difficulty lighting up the scoresheet despite the Heat only firing 19 shots total at Owuya last night.

Looks like Flames "playing the kids" in Horak's case at the NHL level at age 20 really benefited/accelerated his development as he leads the AHL in goal scoring with 10 in 9 games and is dominating. While Leafs prospects Kadri and Colborne were banned to the AHL for development and so far this season look to have declined in progress from last year particularly statistically.

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11-03-2012, 01:55 PM
  #403
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Originally Posted by mikebel111 View Post
we need patience, its not like he is not getting chances, kadri is also not happy by his stats but he is playing well.
if it's 15 games without a goal, than I guess its time to worry, but right now, not yet, they will go in, we need patience
If he has 1 goal in 15 games we're happy? Obviously not, but if he has 10 in 30 games and 30 points in 30 games it would be okay. Nothing to celebrate, but okay for a minor leaguer.

Are there charts for average ages of AHL teams?

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11-03-2012, 01:58 PM
  #404
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
That's the problem with excuses, they have loopholes in logic.

Hard to praise and discredit at the same time when the two items are directly linked, where one is the offset of the other.

It would have been better to praise Irving for standing on his head, to help explain Marlies struggles on the scoresheet last night. But then that would have supported your theory of Flames prospect in net was also promising for the organization.

Top flame prospects Horak and Bartschi had no difficulty lighting up the scoresheet despite the Heat only firing 19 shots total at Owuya last night.

Looks like Flames "playing the kids" in Horak's case at the NHL level at age 20 really benefited/accelerated his development as he leads the AHL in goal scoring with 10 in 9 games and is dominating. While Leafs prospects Kadri and Colborne were banned to the AHL for development and so far this season look to have declined in progress from last year particularly statistically.
Why would I praise Irving for standing on his head when he didn't. It's not like I'm making stuff up you can read the posts discussing the game, or you know actually watch one from time to time. Instead of picking the stat sheets apart.

Also the two items aren't correlated as much as you think. Players playing well and being snake-bitten only has so much to do with the goaltender. Some great plays never make it to the net as a shot on goal. Players tend to do some great things away from the puck from time to time. Irving did make a couple decent saves against that line, but a goalies performance against one line is not an indicator of his performance as a whole.

You can ask anyone who actually watched the game and they'll tell you Colborne was by far and away the best Marlies player.


Last edited by TheNorthFace: 11-03-2012 at 02:13 PM.
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11-03-2012, 01:58 PM
  #405
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Forget patience, it's put up or shut the hell up time for these guys. What I find concerning is no sense of leadership, no urgency, no taking the team by the short and curlies and making a statement. I see what we've always seen, dazzling skill, moments of greatness, followed by disinterested play and inconsistency. It's getting old, just score some goals, tired of excuses and qualifications, be the man already, no longer a kid and you're playing in a feeder league for cripes sake.


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11-03-2012, 02:00 PM
  #406
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Originally Posted by ULF_55 View Post
He was player of the month in the AHL last year. At the time I asked if he could do it again. Perhaps he's just a streaky player, not a player who'll consistently put up good numbers.

I think he has to have over PPG performance in the AHL this year. If the NHL comes onboard he should be willing to be the waterboy on the NHL bench without an attitude if they ask him.
I am assuming he will be around there if not close to it. I am not too worried as many are here. He has it in him, a hot start from prospect coming over from europe, nhl and other junior leagues have made this just a mess really.

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These past two Abbotsford Heat verses Marlie games really shed a light on the prospective prospect pools of the parent NHL teams Calgary and Toronto.

Calgary's top forward prospects:

Sven Bartschi (Born Oct 5 1992) - age 20 .. (Drafted round 1 #13 overall in 2010) = 9 games 4-7-11 points

Roman Horak (Born May 21 1991) - age 21 ...(Drafted round 5 #127 overall in 2009) = 9 games 10 goals 1 assists 11 points.

Verses

Leafs top forward prospects:

Nazem Kadri (Born Oct 6, 1990) - age 22 .. (Drafted round 1 #7 overall in 2009) .. 8 games 0-3-3 points

Joe Colborne (Born Jan 30, 1990) - age 22 (Drafted round 1 # 16 overall in 2008) .. 8 games 0-3-3 points.

If the NHL started up today both Horak (4th in AHL scoring) and Bartschi (6th overall) would be recalled and playing with the Flames. Whereas Leafs prospects older and with more development likely wouldn't make the parent team at present based on their current play and development to date.

As Leaf fans we were hoping that our kids would be dominating the AHL this season like the flames youth have.
Abbotsford Heat:
Goals in total scored the team: 33
Top scorer: Roman Horak, and Sven Baertschi, 11 points.
Top Goal scorer: Horak 10 goals.
Most Assists: Ben Walter, 8, AHL veteran. Second is Sven, with 7 tied with Steve Mccarthy, also an AHL veteran/NHL, with 7.
Games played: 9
Leading Goalie: Danny Taylor, prospect..ish. Ben Scrivens like, 26 years old, 5 games played: 3-1-1-0, 1.97 and .928%
Average Age:24.68
Note: They scored 10 goals in their first two games. One of the best defensive team IMO in the AHL, still holds the best PK unit. PP ranked 9th I believe.

Toronto Marlies
Goals in total scored the team: 18
Top scorer: Keith Aucoin, 6 points, second is Gardiner with 5 points (3g,2a), tied with Mike Kostka 5 points (2g,3a)
Top Goal scorer: Gardiner, 3 goals.
Most Assists: Keith Aucoin, 6, AHL veteran. Second is Colborne, with 4.
Games played: 8
Leading Goalie: Ben Scrivens, 5 games played: 2-3-0-0, 2.59 and .902%
Average Age:24.11
Note: We've been shutout twice already this season, prolly have started out stronger in the first half of the game but couldn't complete in the second half.

If these comparing stats don't tell how we as a team have been struggling well I don't know what to say really.

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11-03-2012, 02:01 PM
  #407
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Looks like Flames "playing the kids" in Horak's case at the NHL level at age 20 really benefited/accelerated his development as he leads the AHL in goal scoring with 10 in 9 games and is dominating. While Leafs prospects Kadri and Colborne were banned to the AHL for development and so far this season look to have declined in progress from last year particularly statistically.
There doesn't seem to be much support to developing Kadri in the NHL though.

For the most part I read he should be given a top 6 role whether he earned it or not.

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11-03-2012, 02:06 PM
  #408
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Originally Posted by TheNorthFace View Post
Why would I praise Irving for standing on his head when he didn't. It's not like I'm making stuff up you can read the posts discussing the game, or you know actually watch one from time to time. Instead of picking the stat sheets apart.

Also the two items aren't correlated as much as you think. Players playing well and being snake-bitten only has so much to do with the goaltender. Some greats plays never make it to the net as a shot on goal. Players tend to do some great things away from the puck from time to time. Irving did make a couple decent saves against that line, but a goalies performance against one line is not an indicator of his performance as a whole.

You can ask anyone who actually watched the game and they'll tell you Colborne was by far and away the best Marlies player.
I was fairly surprised at Irvings performance tbh. Didn't see that coming. Brust is an AHL veteran so that wasn't one.

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11-03-2012, 02:12 PM
  #409
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Originally Posted by Leaf Rocket View Post
I was fairly surprised at Irvings performance tbh. Didn't see that coming. Brust is an AHL veteran so that wasn't one.
If the goalie doesn't have to play well to win chances are the competition isn't much.

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11-03-2012, 02:14 PM
  #410
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Did either of you two (Mess, and Ulf) watch the game last night? Just asking respectfully.

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11-03-2012, 02:16 PM
  #411
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Gotta give these guys time. It's been a slow start to the season for what looks like a really stacked team on paper.

Not liking kadri/Colborne's stats, but at 8 games it's far too early to judge.

but if they're at the same pace at 20 or 30 games, I'll start gettin a little worried.

Still i've seen kadri, He wants to play in the NHL it's clear, he's IMO ready for it and probably just doesnt have as much excitement playing in the AHL.

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11-03-2012, 02:18 PM
  #412
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Originally Posted by Leaf Rocket View Post
I was fairly surprised at Irvings performance tbh. Didn't see that coming. Brust is an AHL veteran so that wasn't one.
I thought Irving was good, but nothing excellent. Do you feel the way I do about Colborne's game last night?

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11-03-2012, 02:19 PM
  #413
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There doesn't seem to be much support to developing Kadri in the NHL though.

For the most part I read he should be given a top 6 role whether he earned it or not.
Well unless your looking for excuses, sometimes its the player that isn't NHL material regardless of the development path taken.

If not for GM bravado, and the need for Martin Gerber waiver claim and recalling Boyd Devereaux for his game #82 hattrick antics Leafs wouldn't have Kadri but rather Brayden Schenn instead to develop.

Schenn has 4-5-9 points and 8 games and leads his AHL team in scoring this year. He was also a regular on Philly's playoff team last year.

Sometimes its about the raw materials and not the processing methods themselves that refines the end product. Can't make chicken salad from chicken feathers no matter how you cook them.

Kadri really isn't any closer to NHL full time employment today at 22 then when he was first drafted at 18, based on his actual performance. IMO

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11-03-2012, 02:25 PM
  #414
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I thought Irving was good, but nothing excellent. Do you feel the way I do about Colborne's game last night?
Colborne had a decent game, and was the best Marlie player but that is in context to his own teammates, and not a direct comparison to other teams prospects in this game.

Overall Colborne played well in both games verses the Heat and I liked what I saw, but that doesn't change (despite being a huge fan of his) that production is way down.

Joey Colborne

2011-12 - October Totals ........... 9 games 8 goals 8 assists 16 points +8 & 27 shots
2012-13 - Season to date Totals ..8 games 0 goals 4 assists 4 points +3 & 9 shots

Ideally for prospect development you want to see steady improvement with age and his show the opposite at present unfortunately.

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11-03-2012, 02:30 PM
  #415
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Still though the marlie team as a whole is playing bad!

it's too small of a sample size to judge right now. It's not a good start, but the team as a whole isn't scoring!

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11-03-2012, 02:35 PM
  #416
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I thought Irving was good, but nothing excellent. Do you feel the way I do about Colborne's game last night?
Same. No I agree with you on both fronts the goalie and colborne. Without out a doubt the last two games, Colborne has been the best forward for us.

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11-03-2012, 02:39 PM
  #417
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Certainly need to shake it. Continuing on this trend isn't something anyone wants. They need to rise to the occasion as excuses only last so long.

It is strange though that the team as a whole tend to have some issues producing consistent offense. I mean, just look to veteran AHL All-Star Keith Aucoin. The guy has demolished the AHL for years, and hasn't looked nearly as dominant as his past numbers have suggested. Granted he isn't a rookie or someone many are interested in following, but you have to look at the group as a whole to gauge what the issue is. On paper, one would think this team wouldn't have any trouble producing. Where has the dominant team from game one gone? Who moved the puck so well and looked like they had been playing for years?

Personally, I'm more shocked at Aucoin so far than anything else. We expected Kadri to produce, and I think over time he will..but if a guy who's put up PPG seasons of 1.62, 1.35, 1.47 the last three years can't get it working..how do we expect everyone else to? Not trying to make excuses (they haven't played well enough, period) it just seems the issues aren't just one or two of our best prospects not producing..it's the entire group of 'key' forwards. Even another veteran like Mike Zigomanis, to me, has been a relative non-factor after being a really key player for them the last few seasons.

It's really strange. For the Marlies sake, I hope they start getting the bounces going their way. Hopefully this is the dark point in their season. They need to get a bit of momentum swinging in their direction. I thought they were on the right track last night, but then the wheels started to fall off.
Perhaps level of competition increase due to the lockout and better players now joining their AHL team organizations is a reason for the Marlies team to look and act different than last season?

We're getting a better more accurate reflection of teams young players and organizational depth, as everyone has sent their kids down for seasoning due to the lockout, evening the playing surface for evaluation purposes.

Roman Horak and Sven Bartschi for example would have been with the Flames, and not the Heat this weekend and Marlies would have performed/fared better by removing those Flames prospects from the equation.

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11-03-2012, 02:40 PM
  #418
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Did either of you two (Mess, and Ulf) watch the game last night? Just asking respectfully.
Watched Thursday night night but not last night.

I said after Thursday's game I thought Colborne was fine.

I'm not surprised if he was fine again last night.

I read some people praising Kadri Thursday and others wondering what game they were watching.

Anymore I don't expect to get an honest evaluation on Kadri, people have preconceived notions about him and regardless they always say positive things about him. And of course there others who only say negative. He seems to have the "nifty mittens" but doesn't seem to accomplish much.

I find it incongruous to suggest forwards on one team played well but accomplished nothing and the goaltender on the opposing team didn't play well stopping 25 of 27 shots.

Options for goalie:
  1. [1]The shots were not dangerous so he didn't have to play well to win.
    [2]Opposing forwards were not effective, didn't really have a good game.
    [3]The opposing forwards played a good game but never threatened.
    [4]Goalie was the reason the players on the opposing team accomplished nothing.
    [5]Defense on the winning team made it easy for the goalie because they made the opposing forwards ineffective.

I understand players can have good games and get no rewards, but there is usually a reason, and the goalie is often why.

If a defense smoothers the attackers, perhaps you can say the forwards played well, just they aren't good enough.

It is possible the Heat is just a better team and the Marlies peaked last year and the addition of youngsters Horak and Baertschi has made the difference.

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11-03-2012, 02:46 PM
  #419
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If you just realized my point about small sample size then shouldn't you realize that counting a point per game pace atm is sort of useless ?

I mean that's 10/11: 44 games: .93PPG
11/12: 48 games: .83PPG
12/13: 8 Games: .37PPG
2011/12 isn't a small sample size though... It was a regression from 2010/11.

..we didn't draft him to be a fourth line energy guy, so putting up points will be important. I do agree, we need to have patience, but at some point he needs to start producing, you only get so many chances.

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11-03-2012, 02:46 PM
  #420
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Perhaps level of competition increase due to the lockout and better players now joining their AHL team organizations is a reason for the Marlies team to look and act different than last season?

We're getting a better more accurate reflection of teams young players and organizational depth, as everyone has sent their kids down for seasoning due to the lockout, evening the playing surface for evaluation purposes.

Roman Horak and Sven Bartschi for example would have been with the Flames, and not the Heat this weekend and Marlies would have performed/fared better by removing those Flames prospects from the equation.
I'm sure that has some effect, but not to the extreme I'm seeing out of them. Given the Marlies were a top team last year it's hard to imagine they are effected this much. With a long playoff run that should only add the necessary confidence/experience coming into another season.

Let's consider the Marlies added some good quality talent too, if not equal or greater than a lot of teams. Kostka, Ranger, Gardiner, Aucoin, Komarov and McKegg to some extent aren't players to be scoffed at. Yes, many aren't 'top prospects', but a few of those are top AHL players and that should be considered when looking at it from a basic skill level.

Whatever it is, I hope they find a way to score.

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11-03-2012, 02:53 PM
  #421
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I'm sure that has some effect, but not to the extreme I'm seeing out of them. Given the Marlies were a top team last year it's hard to imagine they are effected this much. With a long playoff run that should only add the necessary confidence/experience coming into another season.

Let's consider the Marlies added some good quality talent too, if not equal or greater than a lot of teams. Kostka, Ranger, Gardiner, Aucoin, Komarov and McKegg to some extent aren't players to be scoffed at. Yes, many aren't 'top prospects', but a few of those are top AHL players and that should be considered when looking at it from a basic skill level.

Whatever it is, I hope they find a way to score.
Perhaps we're seeing a cupboard to cupboard comparison at the AHL level, and don't you get involved in the prospects rankings?

Should it surprise anyone if the on ice results of the Marlies reflect the rankings?

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11-03-2012, 02:55 PM
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Perhaps we're seeing a cupboard to cupboard comparison at the AHL level, and don't you get involved in the prospects rankings?

Should it surprise anyone if the on ice results of the Marlies reflect the rankings?
But it's not just prospects playing against each other is it? It's AHL veterans who can have a huge impact.

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11-03-2012, 02:57 PM
  #423
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But it's not just prospects playing against each other is it? It's AHL veterans who can have a huge impact.
Sure can, but the leading scorers are who for each team?

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11-03-2012, 03:12 PM
  #424
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But it's not just prospects playing against each other is it? It's AHL veterans who can have a huge impact.
Granted, but if our prospects don't perform well against AHL veterans, then what should we expect when they go up against NHL veterans and the skill level of the competition increases exponentially in talent level?

Prospects that excel at the AHL level putting up PPG numbers against AHL veterans included, are the ones that show the most promise for advancement.

Abbotsford heat have vets that seem to be holding back/in-check Leafs prospects, but its Calgary's kids Horak and Bartschi excelling against Marlies vets Aucoin, Kostka, Ranger, Zigomanis etc to lead their team and even among the AHL league leaders in goals and points.

If Aucoin tears up the AHL, he is expect to, but deep down nobody really cares but him, because Leafs future in a development league is bound to the young players on the Marlies that are intended to be a part of the future. It would be in Leafs best interest of course if its Kadri, Colborne and company that are propelling the Marlies to success through their contributions. If Leland Irving is too much to handle for our kids than what would that make Kiprusoff at the next level?


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11-03-2012, 03:14 PM
  #425
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Sure can, but the leading scorers are who for each team?
Aucoin, who got 3 of his six points in one game, and Gardiner who has established himself last year as a top-four in the NHL so that's not really surprising that he's produced 'well' in the first few games. For Abbotsford, they have Horak who's shooting % is 30%, and Sven Bartschi who's a top line talent so again not really surprising that he's producing.

That's my point. Why all of a sudden is Keith Aucoin not producing? Why isn't Kadri? Why isn't Ziggo? Why isn't Colborne? Why aren't a number of players who were expected to produce, not producing?

I'm not debating the merits of each teams youth - you guys can have that argument. I'm saying the issues on this team are obviously deeper than just Kadri and Colborne not producing so I think it's a little early to jump on their production. Again, a red flag more than anything for me is Aucoin's lack of offensive production - shocking really. Maybe that speaks volumes more than anything about the teams struggles? If a perennial AHL offensive threat can't score how much can we expect out of everyone else regardless of age? Still, I do expect more out of the players that expect to have a future with the team long-term - but it has to be looked at as a whole. These aren't 'can't miss' top-line prospects. These are prospects we are hoping pan out as top-six players, but should we expect them to carry a team offensively when everyone else isn't producing? Is that too much or too little to expect? I guess that's up to you. If I was expecting anyone to carry the team offensively through struggles it would have been Aucoin..

I don't care what other teams are doing, I care about what issues are happening to the team. I'm a fan of the Marlies, and I want the team as a whole to do well not just individuals. Does it bold better for the Leafs if Colborne/Kadri do well? Yes. Does is it have to be better for those two specifically? Yes, certainly. But they aren't alone. If they weren't producing and everyone else was? Then I think we'd have a big problem. Luckily, it hasn't gotten to that point and hopefully it doesn't.

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