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high scoring winger vs two way 55-60 point centreman

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Old
11-05-2012, 01:38 PM
  #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LSnow View Post
But both are normally 70+ centers.

Filppula vs Perry?
The point is that you need to take a winger whos useless everywhere but offensively vs a center whos very good in all areas. Over the past 4 seasons, kesler, is a 28G-65pt guy.

Richards isnt a great comparable, but his stats are all over the place.

And no one could ever convince me a guy like Kesler isnt more valuable than a Phil Kessel.

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11-05-2012, 01:46 PM
  #77
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This seems to be assuming that you already have a number one center that is the same or better that the number two center you are describing (like Krejci & Bergeron for example)

In that sense, I'd rather have the center man than have two top tier guys for one line. Having two high end centers has been proven a key ingredient for a winning team.

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11-05-2012, 01:46 PM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EddieAVS View Post
The point is that you need to take a winger whos useless everywhere but offensively vs a center whos very good in all areas. Over the past 4 seasons, kesler, is a 28G-65pt guy.

Richards isnt a great comparable, but his stats are all over the place.

And no one could ever convince me a guy like Kesler isnt more valuable than a Phil Kessel.
Would you think the same if Kesler instead of getting 40g/7x points and winning the selke would have gotten 30g/60 points without a selke. Or do you take Jordan Staal over D.Sedin.

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11-05-2012, 01:46 PM
  #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozak View Post
you need both... the leafs or hawks definitely wouldn't trade kessel or patrick kane for say J. Staal or Zajac
I donno, I think Burke would make that deal if they were getting a contract with some length.

I myself take the center. Heck, he doesn't need to be 30/30. If he was a 25/25 elite shut-down center, I'd still take him over the defensively incapable 40/40 winger.

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11-05-2012, 01:48 PM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LSnow View Post
Would you think the same if Kesler instead of getting 40g/7x points and winning the selke would have gotten 30g/60 points without a selke. Or do you take Jordan Staal over Ovechkin aswell?
Ovechkin is different. He's pretty good in all aspects of the game.

Before were were comparing the shutdown wingers with offensive upside to a winger who doesn't have a 2 way game.

Of course you take Ovechkin over Kesler.

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11-05-2012, 01:54 PM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post
Ovechkin is different. He's pretty good in all aspects of the game.

Before were were comparing the shutdown wingers with offensive upside to a winger who doesn't have a 2 way game.

Of course you take Ovechkin over Kesler.
Ovechkin isnt a great defensive player, but i meant that picking just one player. " I would take Bergeron/Kesler over Kessel." its basically best player vs worst you can pick. Why not compare Pavelski to Kovalchuk. Would people still take the 30g/60p good two-way center.

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11-05-2012, 01:57 PM
  #82
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So I am trying to think of two players who fit this mold well, for the

Winger:
Kane

Center:
Brown?

In a game I take Kane, in a series I take Brown. Hope that helps :/

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11-05-2012, 01:59 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LSnow View Post
Would you think the same if Kesler instead of getting 40g/7x points and winning the selke would have gotten 30g/60 points without a selke. Or do you take Jordan Staal over D.Sedin.
Its not really the same comparison. Kesler in 4 seasons, has scored over 30 goals only once, and has gotten over 33 assists only once. They seem more like outliers than consistencies. I mean its really hard to find a guy whos just consistently 30 goals 30 assists. Guys have good and bad seasons. Kesler seems like a 65 pointish guy.

Jordan Staal has not once, ever, been a 30-30 guy. In fact, hes never gotten 30 goals or 30 assists in any season. And were using Alex ovechkin as an example of a 40-40 guy whos not good at anything else? Really??

At least my comparison of Kesler/Kessel has some merit to it.

I try to make my comparisons while not choosing players who have incredible linemates.

Obviously there are comparisons that work in either direction. But I find it hard to believe that a very good all around 30-30 centerman wont make up the 20 point difference from a 40-40 one way winger.

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11-05-2012, 01:59 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InfinityIggy View Post
So I am trying to think of two players who fit this mold well, for the

Winger:
Kane

Center:
Brown?

In a game I take Kane, in a series I take Brown. Hope that helps :/
Brown isnt a center.

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11-05-2012, 02:01 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EddieAVS View Post
Its not really the same comparison. Kesler in 4 seasons, has scored over 30 goals only once, and has gotten over 33 assists only once. They seem more like outliers than consistencies. I mean its really hard to find a guy whos just consistently 30 goals 30 assists. Guys have good and bad seasons. Kesler seems like a 65 pointish guy.

Jordan Staal has not once, ever, been a 30-30 guy. In fact, hes never gotten 30 goals or 30 assists in any season. And were using Alex ovechkin as an example of a 40-40 guy whos not good at anything else? Really??

At least my comparison of Kesler/Kessel has some merit to it.

I try to make my comparisons while not choosing players who have incredible linemates.

Obviously there are comparisons that work in either direction. But I find it hard to believe that a very good all around 30-30 centerman wont make up the 20 point difference from a 40-40 one way winger.
By your logic then why do the same for Kessel? He hardly is 40g/80 p winger, he barely cracks 70 points.. So why compare Kesler, who has actually been the better offensive player last 3 seasons vs Kessel who barely got to 80 points in a career year.

And i thought Staal was a good comparison since he is excellent defensively, has gotten better opportunity to increase his scoring.

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11-05-2012, 02:08 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by LSnow View Post
By your logic then why do the same for Kessel? He hardly is 40g/80 p winger, he barely cracks 70 points.. So why compare Kesler, who has actually been the better offensive player last 3 seasons vs Kessel who barely got to 80 points in a career year.
Well because Im assuming in my comparison, that kessel remains a 40-40 guy, like he was last season. Im not looking at his 60 pt seasons and saying thats what he is.

Even using a Gaborik/Kesler debate, id still rather have Kesler.

Ill always have confidence in the 30-30 guy more than the 40-40 guy. Centers, already IMO, are more valuable. But ones who are very good in all aspects of the game do so so so much more than 1 extra point every 4 games. I have little doubt that the center prevents more than 1 goal every 4 games with their defensive play, PK, face-offs, etc.

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11-05-2012, 02:12 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by LSnow View Post
Brown isnt a center.
You're right no idea why I was thinking he was. Must be the C on his chest haha.

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11-05-2012, 02:13 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EddieAVS View Post
Well because Im assuming in my comparison, that kessel remains a 40-40 guy, like he was last season. Im not looking at his 60 pt seasons and saying thats what he is.

Even using a Gaborik/Kesler debate, id still rather have Kesler.

Ill always have confidence in the 30-30 guy more than the 40-40 guy. Centers, already IMO, are more valuable. But ones who are very good in all aspects of the game do so so so much more than 1 extra point every 4 games.
Maybe in the long run, but to use caps/bos series this year as a comparison. The one dimensional winger actually was more useful than the selke winning center, because the selke winner coulnd score agaisnt the one dimensional winger.

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11-05-2012, 02:21 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by LSnow View Post
Maybe in the long run, but to use caps/bos series this year as a comparison. The one dimensional winger actually was more useful than the selke winning center, because the selke winner coulnd score agaisnt the one dimensional winger.
Are we talking about Ovechkin again? I mean really, he shouldnt be in this discussion at all.

Bergeron or Kesler vs Semin? I still take both centers.

Like i said, with all other aspects, Pk, faceoffs, and defensive play, the center will more than make up the 1 extra goal + 1 extra assist every 8 games.

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11-05-2012, 02:31 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by SupermanPahlsson View Post
Toews is not 40-40. He has never reached 40 goals.
He was on pace for 40-39 over 82 last season, and has scored 42-38 in his last 82.

That makes him a "40-40" guy in the sense that it's his scoring rate.

If a guy misses five games each season for five years, and scores 38 goals each of those years, is he a 30-goal scorer or a 40-goal scorer in terms of how you classify his ability?

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11-05-2012, 02:34 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
He was on pace for 40-39 over 82 last season, and has scored 42-38 in his last 82.

That makes him a "40-40" guy in the sense that it's his scoring rate.

If a guy misses five games each season for five years, and scores 38 goals each of those years, is he a 30-goal scorer or a 40-goal scorer in terms of how you classify his ability?
On HFBoards hes a 30 goal scorer, especially if your team is interested in him

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11-05-2012, 02:35 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by InfinityIggy View Post
On HFBoards hes a 30 goal scorer, especially if your team is interested in him
On hfboards 39g42assist forward isnt a "40 goalscorer" nor "ppg forward" because they didnt get one emptynetter.

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11-05-2012, 02:39 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by LSnow View Post
On hfboards 39g42assist forward isnt a "40 goalscorer" nor "ppg forward" because they didnt get one emptynetter.
"Hes never even hit (Insert __ goals".) Is probably the most used line.

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11-05-2012, 02:40 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by EddieAVS View Post
Are we talking about Ovechkin again? I mean really, he shouldnt be in this discussion at all.

Bergeron or Kesler vs Semin? I still take both centers.

Like i said, with all other aspects, Pk, faceoffs, and defensive play, the center will more than make up the 1 extra goal + 1 extra assist every 8 games.
I think that the 20p gap is too massive to compensate with faceoffs and defensive play. Having that one dimensional winger doesnt automatically mean they bleed goals agaisnt. Not everyone plays on leafs with horrible center, equally bad defensive winger and atrocious defence/goaltending.

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11-05-2012, 03:51 PM
  #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
He was on pace for 40-39 over 82 last season, and has scored 42-38 in his last 82.

That makes him a "40-40" guy in the sense that it's his scoring rate.

If a guy misses five games each season for five years, and scores 38 goals each of those years, is he a 30-goal scorer or a 40-goal scorer in terms of how you classify his ability?
The problem with your "on pace for" argument is that he didn't play 78 games, he only played 59, and he didn't have 38 goals, he only had 29G 28A, and in a full season he has never had better than 34G 35A. Players go on cold streaks, that's not nearly close enough to 40/40 to say "if he'd only played those extra 5 games he would have gotten that 1 empty net goal". You could probably cherry pick a block of 59 games in any of his seasons and prorate that to a PPG season. It doesn't work that way, and neither does wrapping around from the precious year. If you take his last two months of play before the injury he had goalless streaks of 5 and 8 games, and only had a total of 8 goals in 21 games - which prorates to 31 goals - pretty much his career average. Which is why you look at entire seasons, not chunks.

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11-05-2012, 03:56 PM
  #96
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I'd take a Ryan Kesler player over a Phil Kessel player any day.

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11-05-2012, 04:11 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
The problem with your "on pace for" argument is that he didn't play 78 games, he only played 59, and he didn't have 38 goals, he only had 29G 28A, and in a full season he has never had better than 34G 35A. Players go on cold streaks, that's not nearly close enough to 40/40 to say "if he'd only played those extra 5 games he would have gotten that 1 empty net goal". You could probably cherry pick a block of 59 games in any of his seasons and prorate that to a PPG season. It doesn't work that way, and neither does wrapping around from the precious year. If you take his last two months of play before the injury he had goalless streaks of 5 and 8 games, and only had a total of 8 goals in 21 games - which prorates to 31 goals - pretty much his career average. Which is why you look at entire seasons, not chunks.
And as I said, he scored 42-38 in his last 82 regular season games. That's almost identical to his per-82 pace from last season (40-39). This suggests that it's not a fluke of statistics. Plus, 59 GP is not an insignificant sample size in its own right.

Furthermore, if you can cherry pick a block of any consecutive 59 games, do you know what that makes him? A consistent PPG player. Which means that projecting his stats over a shortened season is not an abomination.

But, just to make you happy, here's Toews' career stats per-59 GP and per-82, not including last year:

22-30-52
31-41-72

That compares to his 29-28-57 last year, with 40-39-79 as the per-82 rate. He didn't score significantly higher than his career average in points; he increased his goal output and that was his primary scoring increase. He actually scored fewer APG than is his norm, in part because Kane spent plenty of time centering line 2 and Toews was suddenly the goal-scoring guy and the playmaker on the first line; very Yzerman-esque. If he plays with Kane on his wing next year, and a full season, he'll probably be closer to 35/40 goals and around 45 assists. Maybe higher. Given his career numbers those are completely reasonable totals. Only once in his career has he not been on 30+ goal pace, and he's always been on 35+ assist pace.

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11-05-2012, 04:27 PM
  #98
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I'd easily take Bergeron over Kessel, even trying to avoid bias. A center who exhibits elite two-way play and still puts up 60 points is the type of player that wins the Cup. Kessel-type players disappear when they aren't scoring (and they are quite noticeable for that). Bergeron still is helping the team win when he doesn't put up points as an example. Same goes for any players like Bergeron or Kessel in this situation.

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11-05-2012, 04:58 PM
  #99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
And as I said, he scored 42-38 in his last 82 regular season games. That's almost identical to his per-82 pace from last season (40-39). This suggests that it's not a fluke of statistics. Plus, 59 GP is not an insignificant sample size in its own right.

Furthermore, if you can cherry pick a block of any consecutive 59 games, do you know what that makes him? A consistent PPG player. Which means that projecting his stats over a shortened season is not an abomination.

But, just to make you happy, here's Toews' career stats per-59 GP and per-82, not including last year:

22-30-52
31-41-72

That compares to his 29-28-57 last year, with 40-39-79 as the per-82 rate. He didn't score significantly higher than his career average in points; he increased his goal output and that was his primary scoring increase. He actually scored fewer APG than is his norm, in part because Kane spent plenty of time centering line 2 and Toews was suddenly the goal-scoring guy and the playmaker on the first line; very Yzerman-esque. If he plays with Kane on his wing next year, and a full season, he'll probably be closer to 35/40 goals and around 45 assists. Maybe higher. Given his career numbers those are completely reasonable totals. Only once in his career has he not been on 30+ goal pace, and he's always been on 35+ assist pace.
When his career stats say he's a 31 goal guy and you try to play the multiple year regular season trick to get a 40 goal pace - yeah, it's a statistical fluke. That's a 29% bump on a streaky goal scorer. Like I said, it's not like he's ever gotten close enough to 40 in the same regular season to give him the nod. And if you look at him on a per year basis (his ACTUAL production for the team) he works out to 29G 36A, which is not too far off the OP's numbers. So if you're comparing the players for your team, shouldn't how often they are actually on the ice play into it? Lies, damned lies, and statistics, huh?

Regardless, all intangibles, potential, and cooked statistics aside, he's better than the center described in the OP but not the game breaker some are trying to make him out to be.

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11-05-2012, 06:24 PM
  #100
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Simple as Crosby can make pascal dupuis an almost 60 point player.

Pascal dupuis from the wing isn't making Crosby look like an 100 point center.

Center are more important

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