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Old
11-05-2012, 09:56 PM
  #76
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Me and the other people who are down on him would be far less concerned if we'd see even a shred of evidence that he is capable of learning from his mistakes.

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11-05-2012, 10:17 PM
  #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mant View Post
Me and the other people who are down on him would be far less concerned if we'd see even a shred of evidence that he is capable of learning from his mistakes.
He hasn't had an opportunity to learn from his mistakes. His 1st 2 season were exceptionally solid for a 19 and 20 year old. He made some mistakes in the offseason between year 2 and 3, be it training, diet, general laziness etc. and he paid for it with a injury plagued, out of shape, injury plagued, lazy year 3.

His opportunity to learn from this mistake came this summer. And from the sounds of it he took the right steps in training hard and partying less and treating this more like a privilege than a right. Unfortunately he has not had an opportunity to show the fans if he did learn from the mistakes.

From the looks of it he is playing well in the SEL, and when they figure **** out in the NHL, I think the fans here will see a totally different player this year (for the better). I fully expect Duchene to produce offensive at a rate of approx .85ppg or higher meaning approx 70pts or more over an 82 game season.

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11-05-2012, 11:20 PM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet1926 View Post
He hasn't had an opportunity to learn from his mistakes. His 1st 2 season were exceptionally solid for a 19 and 20 year old. He made some mistakes in the offseason between year 2 and 3, be it training, diet, general laziness etc. and he paid for it with a injury plagued, out of shape, injury plagued, lazy year 3.

His opportunity to learn from this mistake came this summer. And from the sounds of it he took the right steps in training hard and partying less and treating this more like a privilege than a right. Unfortunately he has not had an opportunity to show the fans if he did learn from the mistakes.

From the looks of it he is playing well in the SEL, and when they figure **** out in the NHL, I think the fans here will see a totally different player this year (for the better). I fully expect Duchene to produce offensive at a rate of approx .85ppg or higher meaning approx 70pts or more over an 82 game season.
I certainly hope you're right, the reports of him saying that the spinning move is his thing are kind of worrisome. Mostly because I think if he simplified his game it'd help a lot. I remember reading his pre-draft reports, of a two way guy who can do the PK, who covers all the ice, yet he seems to have lost that.

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11-06-2012, 12:07 AM
  #79
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It's easy to focus a bit too much on his weaknesses rather than his strengths because the weaknesses are very annoying and in a weird way his strengths contributes to his bad habits. He is a great skater, very shifty and has some amazing 1-on-1 moves but because he is so strong in those areas it also leads to him making some poor decisions.

Anyway, right now I feel like complaining about him doesn't serve any purpose. He's not had a chance to prove me wrong and I have a feeling he is going to have a very good year so I'll keep my mouth shut and hope he'll make me keep it shut.

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11-06-2012, 01:26 AM
  #80
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I love Duch. He'll be back. In a big way

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11-06-2012, 01:51 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by talkmtv com View Post
I'm not trying to bash anyone or anything, but I would truly like to know...why have so many of you de-valued Matt Duchene so much recently?
no reasonable person has devalued him. Even the most stringent of critics are well aware that in his short career he has placed 3rd in Calder voting, went to an All-Star game, led the team in points and goals, and has scored more goals+assists than any other player in his draft year after Tavares. Duchene has every skill necessary to be a star player in the NHL through his entire career.

That said, his last season was poor because of a weak and downright lazy playing style, not injuries or coaching decisions. Instead of pushing the play to a high-percentage area and working with teammates, Duchene attempted power moves and dekes that have little efficiency outside of junior hockey. This would not have been troubling for a few games, but he did it the entire year and never showed that he was willing to learn from his mistakes and adapt his game. No player on the team last season showed a worse work ethic than Duchene. Guys who are objectively not capable of NHL-level production like Lindstrom, Kobasew, and Mueller all looked better last season than Duchene did. I find that very, very discouraging.

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Old
11-06-2012, 04:12 AM
  #82
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Duchene's strategy is to try his spin move against every nhl defender... and the one-in-fifty times that it doesn't result in a turn over and odd man rush just reinforces his fantasy that it's a good move.

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11-06-2012, 10:31 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by talkmtv com View Post
Ok I just have to say this...what had caused so many of you Avalanche faithful to give up on Duchene and decrease his value so much after a single bad year?
There are a number of reasons why. However, one must take a deeper look into the details of his play, rather than just throwing up basic annual scoring stats from his first two years, in order to understand the reasons.

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Originally Posted by talkmtv com View Post
And by the way, if you followed the team last year (and I'm sure just about 100% of the people on this board did) you would know that he was injured almost all of least year, and he was visibly playing through it.
That's actually not quite accurate. Duchene was healthy until getting hurt against Phoenix at the very end of the calendar year - in game 39. So, he wasn't injured 'almost all of last year'. He was injured for the 2nd half.

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Originally Posted by talkmtv com View Post
Instead of focusing on his one bad, injury filled year, why not talk about his rookie year where he put up 55 points? Or the year after where he avoided the always common "sophomore slump" and put up 67 points?
There are several reasons. One, while healthy for the first half of last season, he had put up 24 points - about a 50 point pace. While not an ugly output per se, it was certainly a downgrade from the 55 and 67 point seasons he had put up before. A certain level of improved play was absolutely expected, but didn't materialize.

But taking a closer look at the details of his play, in particular his pre-injury output from last year, Duchene scored 1 goal over the (approx) first few weeks of the season, then scored 8 goals over an 11 day (8 game) stretch, then scored 3 goals over the (approx) next 6 weeks prior to his injury. His assists were a bit more spread out. So, over most of the games in the first half of the season, he was largely irrelevant offensively.

However, the other negative issues that people bring up in regards to Duchene - which also require looking a bit deeper into the details of his play - revolve around A) his continued inability to use his linemates effectively; B) his continued repeated (again, and again, and again) junior league spinorama moves in the offensive zone that result in turnovers almost every time, and his seeming inability to sense where to put the puck or himself on the ice; and C) his continued generally lazy, uninspired play at times. These three things have been problems (at least part of the time) since he stepped onto NHL ice 3 years ago, and some of us simply haven't seen improvement in these areas, regardless of the results.

I'm sorry, but all of that is legitimate cause for concern.

Quote:
Originally Posted by talkmtv com View Post
I'm not trying to bash anyone or anything, but I would truly like to know...why have so many of you de-valued Matt Duchene so much recently?
Hope that helps.


Last edited by ABasin: 11-06-2012 at 10:37 AM.
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Old
11-06-2012, 12:11 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
There are a number of reasons why. However, one must take a deeper look into the details of his play, rather than just throwing up basic annual scoring stats from his first two years, in order to understand the reasons.



That's actually not quite accurate. Duchene was healthy until getting hurt against Phoenix at the very end of the calendar year - in game 39. So, he wasn't injured 'almost all of last year'. He was injured for the 2nd half.



There are several reasons. One, while healthy for the first half of last season, he had put up 24 points - about a 50 point pace. While not an ugly output per se, it was certainly a downgrade from the 55 and 67 point seasons he had put up before. A certain level of improved play was absolutely expected, but didn't materialize.

But taking a closer look at the details of his play, in particular his pre-injury output from last year, Duchene scored 1 goal over the (approx) first few weeks of the season, then scored 8 goals over an 11 day (8 game) stretch, then scored 3 goals over the (approx) next 6 weeks prior to his injury. His assists were a bit more spread out. So, over most of the games in the first half of the season, he was largely irrelevant offensively.

However, the other negative issues that people bring up in regards to Duchene - which also require looking a bit deeper into the details of his play - revolve around A) his continued inability to use his linemates effectively; B) his continued repeated (again, and again, and again) junior league spinorama moves in the offensive zone that result in turnovers almost every time, and his seeming inability to sense where to put the puck or himself on the ice; and C) his continued generally lazy, uninspired play at times. These three things have been problems (at least part of the time) since he stepped onto NHL ice 3 years ago, and some of us simply haven't seen improvement in these areas, regardless of the results.

I'm sorry, but all of that is legitimate cause for concern.



Hope that helps.
That's pretty accurate. The only thing I would disagree with is that his first NHL season was probably his best in terms of two-way play. (I don't think he was bad defensively at all during his first pro season)

His second season saw a bigger shift towards offense, especially after we acquired Flash and if the wheels hadn't fallen off the whole team completely from February to April (a time period where iirc the entire team failed to produce even 2 goals-per-game) he would have probably reached 80 points. We did start to see some shifts where he seemed to be 'mailing-it-in' defensively speaking.

Last year was a disaster. We saw him try to put the whole team on his back and try to do too much and failed time and time again.

It is important to note though, that this certainly wouldn't be the first time that a young, offensive-minded player took some time to mature and 'buy-in' to becoming more of a two-way presence. While from a different era, Steve Yzerman immediately comes to mind. I remember reading articles about how Bryan Murray (then GM of the Red Wings) was actually contemplating trading him because of his lack of defensive awareness or what have you. Yzerman was 24-25 years old at the time and he ended up being a two-way force with the right mindset and good coaching.

Patience is key here but there certainly ARE reasons for concern, especially when you see the player seemingly develop bad habits (lazy backcheck) and either the coach is letting it slide (unlikely <- I would like to think ) or it's not sinking it.

Generally though, with players like that, it just takes time and proper coaching to get some of that 'immaturity' out of his game. We've all seen him play some strong two-way games and it's going to be up to him to realize that it's even more impressive to play a consistently strong two-way game (like RoR did last year) than it is to score a highlight reel goal and end up on Sportscenter every week.

I'm banking that bringing in a guy like Parenteau will help Duchene get his groove back and while I don't expect him to instantly get all the kinks out, I think we'll see some improvements in that regard this season (if there is one).

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11-06-2012, 03:28 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet1926 View Post
He hasn't had an opportunity to learn from his mistakes. His 1st 2 season were exceptionally solid for a 19 and 20 year old. He made some mistakes in the offseason between year 2 and 3, be it training, diet, general laziness etc. and he paid for it with a injury plagued, out of shape, injury plagued, lazy year 3.

His opportunity to learn from this mistake came this summer. And from the sounds of it he took the right steps in training hard and partying less and treating this more like a privilege than a right. Unfortunately he has not had an opportunity to show the fans if he did learn from the mistakes.

From the looks of it he is playing well in the SEL, and when they figure **** out in the NHL, I think the fans here will see a totally different player this year (for the better). I fully expect Duchene to produce offensive at a rate of approx .85ppg or higher meaning approx 70pts or more over an 82 game season.
This post assumes that all of Duchene's mistakes happened last season. They didn't, and he has shown little development in certain key areas between seasons 1 and 3.

All of this said, I'm fine being patient with Duchene and seeing how he does over the next couple of seasons. He undoubtedly has the most offensive skill on the roster.

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11-06-2012, 03:32 PM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bender View Post
That's pretty accurate. The only thing I would disagree with is that his first NHL season was probably his best in terms of two-way play. (I don't think he was bad defensively at all during his first pro season)

His second season saw a bigger shift towards offense, especially after we acquired Flash and if the wheels hadn't fallen off the whole team completely from February to April (a time period where iirc the entire team failed to produce even 2 goals-per-game) he would have probably reached 80 points. We did start to see some shifts where he seemed to be 'mailing-it-in' defensively speaking.

Last year was a disaster. We saw him try to put the whole team on his back and try to do too much and failed time and time again.

It is important to note though, that this certainly wouldn't be the first time that a young, offensive-minded player took some time to mature and 'buy-in' to becoming more of a two-way presence. While from a different era, Steve Yzerman immediately comes to mind. I remember reading articles about how Bryan Murray (then GM of the Red Wings) was actually contemplating trading him because of his lack of defensive awareness or what have you. Yzerman was 24-25 years old at the time and he ended up being a two-way force with the right mindset and good coaching.

Patience is key here but there certainly ARE reasons for concern, especially when you see the player seemingly develop bad habits (lazy backcheck) and either the coach is letting it slide (unlikely <- I would like to think ) or it's not sinking it.

Generally though, with players like that, it just takes time and proper coaching to get some of that 'immaturity' out of his game. We've all seen him play some strong two-way games and it's going to be up to him to realize that it's even more impressive to play a consistently strong two-way game (like RoR did last year) than it is to score a highlight reel goal and end up on Sportscenter every week.

I'm banking that bringing in a guy like Parenteau will help Duchene get his groove back and while I don't expect him to instantly get all the kinks out, I think we'll see some improvements in that regard this season (if there is one).
Good post.

The one thing about Duchene that really bothers me, isn't the backchecking thing. That's simple effort, for the most part. The thing that really concerns me, is that Duchene just doesn't seem to often put himself or the puck in the correct places at the correct times. Some of that can be experience, but often a lot of that is simply sense - it's there or it isn't. And Duchene simply makes poor decisions with the puck and with himself all of the time.

Compare this to O'R, for example, who always seems to have his stick and his body in the right place, and puts the puck in good places on the ice all night long.

When discussing 'hockey sense', whatever "it" is, it seems that Duchene doesn't have it, while O'R does.

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Old
11-06-2012, 05:02 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
Good post.

The one thing about Duchene that really bothers me, isn't the backchecking thing. That's simple effort, for the most part. The thing that really concerns me, is that Duchene just doesn't seem to often put himself or the puck in the correct places at the correct times. Some of that can be experience, but often a lot of that is simply sense - it's there or it isn't. And Duchene simply makes poor decisions with the puck and with himself all of the time.

Compare this to O'R, for example, who always seems to have his stick and his body in the right place, and puts the puck in good places on the ice all night long.

When discussing 'hockey sense', whatever "it" is, it seems that Duchene doesn't have it, while O'R does.
I don' think its fair to say Duchene doesn't have hockey sense. Hockey sense is a trait you can develop some like O'Reilly or Landeskog developed it quickly. Why this happened, its tough to say be hard work, willingness to change etc. Duchene on the other hand has never had any adversity, everything has always come easy for him when it comes to hockey up until last year. So maybe Duchene is a bit more stubborn when it comes to changing his game/work habits etc. It looks like this last summer he took the necessary steps to attempt to change. Will it make a difference, only time will tell.

Not all players are instant successes when they enter the league. Take Vincent Lecavalier. Struggled his first year, then had 2 pretty successful years, then had a major step back the following season. Then something changed (who knows what he did), and he became a highly successful NHLer who had good statistical years and was very reliable elsewhere. Sure his numbers have declined a bit the past 2 years but that is mainly due to taking a back seat to Stamkos, but Vinny is still a reliable solid player.

So basically there is time to develop some hockey sense, not every young kid is able to just adjust to NHL hockey/smarts instantaneously. Some cases it takes 4 or 5 seasons.

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