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Oilers to Complete "Wow Factor Trade"?

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Old
11-06-2012, 10:21 AM
  #776
Vankiller Whale
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
The key is their contracts are both so ridiculously bad that they have negative value.

You think Luongo is worth 7mill per year for the next 7yrs? I dont, and neither does anyone else with a pulse.

People saying Vancouver wont move him unless they get this or they get that are making my sides sore from laughing so hard. Gillis cant give him away. It suits me right down to the ground if Luongo stays right where he is tbh. Its about time someone gets burned by one of these cap circumvention contracts.
So I guess Kovalchuk, Hossa, etc. also have negative value, right?

GMs know these players won't play their contracts out until the end, and even if they do, they can be traded to a cap floor team at the end of their contract when they make peanuts in actual salary.

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11-06-2012, 10:23 AM
  #777
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
So I guess Kovalchuk, Hossa, etc. also have negative value, right?

GMs know these players won't play their contracts out until the end, and even if they do, they can be traded to a cap floor team at the end of their contract when they make peanuts in actual salary.
I'd ignore the post.
Comparing Dipietro with his injury history and poor performance to Luongo who is still a top goalie is laughable.
Luongo's contract definitely impacts his value but using an anaology of Dipietro is like arguing that Hossa has no value because Wade Redden has no value.

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11-06-2012, 10:28 AM
  #778
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Any trade involving Luongo is not even close to being a pure hockey trade. If the cap next year is below $65M his contract becomes even more of a factor.

1) The option to keep both Schneider and Luongo next year is pretty much dead. At this point, at even $65M the Canucks would have only about $10M to fill 10 roster spots and that includes filling Edler's spot and at least a modest raise for Chris Higgins. Even if they manage to give Ballard away it would be hard to justify nearly $10M on two goalies.

2) Most of the teams that could typically absorb a $6.7M salary/ $5.33M cap hit either have their own stud goalie or they are in a cap bind themselves.

3) His deal is not only long but for a budget team the fact that his salary is $1.5M above his cap hit makes this contract very unattractive. Such teams are looking for big cap hit/ small salary players.

Toronto and Edmonton are two teams with both the cap space and the resources to take on his deal. I am not sure either would be anxious to give up much. From the Oilers perspective I think they would be better off spending their money elsewhere.



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11-06-2012, 10:28 AM
  #779
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
So I guess Kovalchuk, Hossa, etc. also have negative value, right?

GMs know these players won't play their contracts out until the end, and even if they do, they can be traded to a cap floor team at the end of their contract when they make peanuts in actual salary.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vanwest View Post
I'd ignore the post.
Comparing Dipietro with his injury history and poor performance to Luongo who is still a top goalie is laughable.
Luongo's contract definitely impacts his value but using an anaology of Dipietro is like arguing that Hossa has no value because Wade Redden has no value.
One has nothing to do with the other...Big difference between a goalie and any other position when you have 2 but can only play one...That's a lot of money for a back up goalie...Vancouver playing Lu and Schneider at the same time are they? If not then IATL's point still stands..

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11-06-2012, 10:30 AM
  #780
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
So I guess Kovalchuk, Hossa, etc. also have negative value, right?

GMs know these players won't play their contracts out until the end, and even if they do, they can be traded to a cap floor team at the end of their contract when they make peanuts in actual salary.
If Kovalchuk and Hossa were sitting on the bench instead of playing, you would have a point.

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11-06-2012, 10:36 AM
  #781
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Originally Posted by Oilfan2 View Post
One has nothing to do with the other...Big difference between a goalie and any other position when you have 2 but can only play one...That's a lot of money for a back up goalie...Vancouver playing Lu and Schneider at the same time are they? If not then IATL's point still stands..
The point does not stand. He compared Dipietro to Luongo. Anyone who has watched any hockey in the last decade understands that those two players are not comparable. It's just a dumb comparison. Extreme positions on either side just derail the discussion which I suspect is the whole purpose.

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11-06-2012, 10:38 AM
  #782
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
If Kovalchuk and Hossa were sitting on the bench instead of playing, you would have a point.
Any team that trades for him will not be sitting him on the bench. And seeing as they're all equally likely to retire at the same age...

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11-06-2012, 10:46 AM
  #783
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
The key is their contracts are both so ridiculously bad that they have negative value.

You think Luongo is worth 7mill per year for the next 7yrs? I dont, and neither does anyone else with a pulse.

People saying Vancouver wont move him unless they get this or they get that are making my sides sore from laughing so hard. Gillis cant give him away. It suits me right down to the ground if Luongo stays right where he is tbh. Its about time someone gets burned by one of these cap circumvention contracts.
For the next 7 years? Maybe not, but i DO think hes worth it for the next 2-4 years, and a team who needs a starting goalie would pull a Pujols/Crawford/Gonzalez (to make a baseball comparison) and eat the remaining years to compete now. Luongo is still an NHL starting goaltender, that much is a fact. This coming from a Bruins fan who saw Thomas have a historical season as a 37 year old.

Maybe I'm wrong, its fruitless to discuss what someone will be traded for which is why I tend to avoid it because it is largely baseless speculation, but I also thought that about Brian Campbell...who is now a top pairing D man on the Panthers and revitalized his career.

I think people could be surprised, but again, purely baseless speculation.

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11-06-2012, 10:52 AM
  #784
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Originally Posted by Tim Vezina Thomas View Post
For the next 7 years? Maybe not, but i DO think hes worth it for the next 2-4 years, and a team who needs a starting goalie would pull a Pujols/Crawford/Gonzalez (to make a baseball comparison) and eat the remaining years to compete now. Luongo is still an NHL starting goaltender, that much is a fact. This coming from a Bruins fan who saw Thomas have a historical season as a 37 year old.

Maybe I'm wrong, its fruitless to discuss what someone will be traded for which is why I tend to avoid it because it is largely baseless speculation, but I also thought that about Brian Campbell...who is now a top pairing D man on the Panthers and revitalized his career.

I think people could be surprised, but again, purely baseless speculation.
Truer words were never spoken. I have no idea what Luongo will be traded for but I suspect that it could well be for something that has not been discussed and there is a fairly wide range of values that could come back. I've read views that he will be traded as a cap dump and views that he will be traded for significant assets. I'd guess that the return will be somewhere in between but that's about as far as I'd go.

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11-06-2012, 11:18 AM
  #785
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Originally Posted by Tim Vezina Thomas View Post
For the next 7 years? Maybe not, but i DO think hes worth it for the next 2-4 years, and a team who needs a starting goalie would pull a Pujols/Crawford/Gonzalez (to make a baseball comparison) and eat the remaining years to compete now. Luongo is still an NHL starting goaltender, that much is a fact. This coming from a Bruins fan who saw Thomas have a historical season as a 37 year old.
Cannot be done as easily in a salary cap world. Baseball has no salary cap, so it can make sense there. The leagues are not analogous enough to make the comparisons.

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11-06-2012, 11:23 AM
  #786
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
The key is their contracts are both so ridiculously bad that they have negative value.
I wonder what we'll have to add to Lu to convince someone else to take him. Hopefully a team like Toronto will do us a favour and take him if we add a couple 1st rounders. Only problem is I don't see Burke doing Gillis any favours like that.

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11-06-2012, 11:25 AM
  #787
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I am not disputing that Luongo is a good goalie, I would love to have him in EDM BUT his contract just does not allow it because of the huge cap hit for so many years. If I have to pick between having Luongo over one of Hall, RNH, Eberle, Yak, or Schultz, Luongo is going to lose all the time. That is the problem because if the cap does go down just for a few years to 60 mil it will effect which player we can sign and I don't want a signed Luongo with that length of contract.

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11-06-2012, 11:34 AM
  #788
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Originally Posted by LuckyLager View Post
I wonder what we'll have to add to Lu to convince someone else to take him. Hopefully a team like Toronto will do us a favour and take him if we add a couple 1st rounders. Only problem is I don't see Burke doing Gillis any favours like that.
I realize you are being facetious but I would say, with the cap coming down, it's not an overstatement to say the majority of NHL teams would turn down Luongo even if Gillis were giving him away.

That's how bad his contract is.

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11-06-2012, 11:38 AM
  #789
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Cannot be done as easily in a salary cap world. Baseball has no salary cap, so it can make sense there. The leagues are not analogous enough to make the comparisons.
Of course its not as easy, but Florida just did the same thing with Campbell (with less years on his contract, but still).

Campbell was seen as a top four defenseman in his early thirties who is likely on the downward trend career wise with an albatross of a contract. You don't think hes going to be worth 7+ million in 2015-2016 do you? I certainly don't think so.

I know its a different situation, but with how late in their thirties these goalies are performing (Brodeur, Thomas, Vokoun, Kiprusoff, Nabokov) its certainly possible Luongo plays at an elite level for the next 3-4 years. Would the extra years at the end of the contract be worth going for the Cup? Thats up to the teams.

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11-06-2012, 11:40 AM
  #790
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I realize you are being facetious but I would say, with the cap coming down, it's not an overstatement to say the majority of NHL teams would turn down Luongo even if Gillis were giving him away.

That's how bad his contract is.
All it takes is one team to need a goalie. And there are certainly a number of teams, including the Oilers, who had subpar goaltending last year. As for the cap, that will of course depend on the CBA which so far sounds quite promising. We'll see.

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11-06-2012, 11:42 AM
  #791
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Originally Posted by worraps View Post
I realize you are being facetious but I would say, with the cap coming down, it's not an overstatement to say the majority of NHL teams would turn down Luongo even if Gillis were giving him away.

That's how bad his contract is.
The majority of teams are already set for goaltending, so yes you're right.

The point of contention here is whether Luongos talent outweighs his contract. The contract is a major deterrent obviously, but I wouldnt be surprised at all if someone gave up some relatively decent assets to make a run at the Cup.

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11-06-2012, 11:47 AM
  #792
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Thanks for presenting your opinion as fact. Unless you have a credible source don't TELL us what's worth talking about or not.
You're... welcome?

Pretty sure on a public forum you're allowed to state your opinion, what you do with that opinion is up to you. Logic is the credible source that says Luongo is not going to Edmonton...

- He need do waive to go there, unless there are no other options, I don't see him giving it a second thought.
- His wife is from Florida and thought Vancouver was the arctic. How will she like Edmonton? Do the Oilers really want to go down that road again with a star player?
- Division rival. Gillis would need a King's Ransom to send him there and risk it blowing up in his face for the next 5 years. Oilers could be very dangerous with Luongo. Are the Oilers willing to pay the kind of price it would take to absorb that risk? (judging by this thread, not even close).
- Young, losing team that is a ways off from competing. He'll probably retire in 4-5 years, will Edmonton have this re-build figured out by then? A lot easier to compete in Florida right now. Where he lives...
- Canadian Market. He'll face the same illogical scrutiny he did in Vancouver. He was blamed for everything. Edmonton fans would turn on him even quicker.

Way too many question marks and risks. I am 99% certain he'll never wear an Oiler sweater... But that's my opinion. Which is OK to share on an internet message board right?

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11-06-2012, 11:47 AM
  #793
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Originally Posted by Tim Vezina Thomas View Post
Of course its not as easy, but Florida just did the same thing with Campbell (with less years on his contract, but still).

Campbell was seen as a top four defenseman in his early thirties who is likely on the downward trend career wise with an albatross of a contract. You don't think hes going to be worth 7+ million in 2015-2016 do you? I certainly don't think so.

I know its a different situation, but with how late in their thirties these goalies are performing (Brodeur, Thomas, Vokoun, Kiprusoff, Nabokov) its certainly possible Luongo plays at an elite level for the next 3-4 years. Would the extra years at the end of the contract be worth going for the Cup? Thats up to the teams.
The thing about Campbell, or any skater for that matter, is that even when his play starts to decline he can still play a useful role on a team. When Luongo declines he will be sitting on the bench and of no use to anyone.

Basically it will be the same situation Vancouver finds itself in now except the starting goalie will probably be worse than Schneider.

History tells us that a goalie's play starts to drop off steeply in his mid 30s. Luongo would represent a goaltending improvement for 20 teams in the NHL next year but what about 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018?

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11-06-2012, 11:53 AM
  #794
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The thing about Campbell, or any skater for that matter, is that even when his play starts to decline he can still play a useful role on a team. When Luongo declines he will be sitting on the bench and of no use to anyone.

Basically it will be the same situation Vancouver finds itself in now except the starting goalie will probably be worse than Schneider.

History tells us that a goalie's play starts to drop off steeply in his mid 30s. Luongo would represent a goaltending improvement for 20 teams in the NHL next year but what about 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018?
He's going to suddenly become terrible obviously. He's been an excellent goaltender since he was 5 years old at every level and in every situation, but you guys are right, once he hits 34 he's totally gonna suck.

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11-06-2012, 12:00 PM
  #795
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He's going to suddenly become terrible obviously. He's been an excellent goaltender since he was 5 years old at every level and in every situation, but you guys are right, once he hits 34 he's totally gonna suck.
Do you remember Mark Messier's time in Vancouver?

Luongo is a much lesser talent and he is going to hit that age years before he becomes movable to a cap floor team or retires.

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11-06-2012, 12:11 PM
  #796
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I realize you are being facetious but I would say, with the cap coming down, it's not an overstatement to say the majority of NHL teams would turn down Luongo even if Gillis were giving him away.

That's how bad his contract is.
Yeah, it doesn't really matter how many teams aren't interested in him, just how many are. As long as there's 2 or more teams interested there's a market for him. I'll make an avatar bet with anyone who thinks we're going to have to add to Luongo to get someone else to take him off our hands. Saying he has negative value at this point is just ridiculous.

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11-06-2012, 12:22 PM
  #797
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Yeah, it doesn't really matter how many teams aren't interested in him, just how many are. As long as there's 2 or more teams interested there's a market for him. I'll make an avatar bet with anyone who thinks we're going to have to add to Luongo to get someone else to take him off our hands. Saying he has negative value at this point is just ridiculous.
I don't think he has negative value. Burke's need to keep his job alone gives Luongo value. It just isn't anywhere near fair value.

Chris Pronger in his prime returned very little in a salary dump. When you add in a very bad contract Gillis is in a really bad situation.

I think Gillis's and AV's handling of the Schneider/Luongo situation is going to come back to haunt Vancouver fans for a long time.

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11-06-2012, 12:36 PM
  #798
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The thing about Campbell, or any skater for that matter, is that even when his play starts to decline he can still play a useful role on a team. When Luongo declines he will be sitting on the bench and of no use to anyone.

Basically it will be the same situation Vancouver finds itself in now except the starting goalie will probably be worse than Schneider.

History tells us that a goalie's play starts to drop off steeply in his mid 30s. Luongo would represent a goaltending improvement for 20 teams in the NHL next year but what about 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018?
source?
please share this history

i would love to see how many goalies you've found that have put up the #s he has for as long as he has, and then dropped off sharply in their mid 30s.

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11-06-2012, 12:40 PM
  #799
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source?
please share this history

i would love to see how many goalies you've found that have put up the #s he has for as long as he has, and then dropped off sharply in their mid 30s.
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/...centage-by-age

It actually starts to drop off after their mid 20s but the steep decline usually comes in the 30s.

Is it really not obvious to you that a professional athlete in his mid 30s, who has put his body under significant strain for 20+ years, will get worse with the passing of every year?

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11-06-2012, 12:41 PM
  #800
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Why are people still talking about Luongo in this thread? Do you really think there's any way he's going to Edmonton? He's not going to waive to go to a rebuilding team in Northern Canada, in the same division, to be scrutinized the same way as he is in Vancouver. Not a chance in hell in my opinion that he goes to Edmonton so it's really not worth talking about so much or getting all bent out of shape about.

Besides that, Gillis would be an absolute moron to trade a motivated Roberto Luongo to a division rival for anything less than a package that would make Oiler fans panic all over their keyboards. There are lots of reasons this wont happen. Yes the HF kiddies think Luongo sucks, but hockey people know better.
Quote:
Originally Posted by notloilersfan View Post
Thanks for presenting your opinion as fact. Unless you have a credible source don't TELL us what's worth talking about or not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Reign Nateo View Post
You're... welcome?

Pretty sure on a public forum you're allowed to state your opinion, what you do with that opinion is up to you. Logic is the credible source that says Luongo is not going to Edmonton...

- He need do waive to go there, unless there are no other options, I don't see him giving it a second thought.
- His wife is from Florida and thought Vancouver was the arctic. How will she like Edmonton? Do the Oilers really want to go down that road again with a star player?
- Division rival. Gillis would need a King's Ransom to send him there and risk it blowing up in his face for the next 5 years. Oilers could be very dangerous with Luongo. Are the Oilers willing to pay the kind of price it would take to absorb that risk? (judging by this thread, not even close).
- Young, losing team that is a ways off from competing. He'll probably retire in 4-5 years, will Edmonton have this re-build figured out by then? A lot easier to compete in Florida right now. Where he lives...
- Canadian Market. He'll face the same illogical scrutiny he did in Vancouver. He was blamed for everything. Edmonton fans would turn on him even quicker.

Way too many question marks and risks. I am 99% certain he'll never wear an Oiler sweater... But that's my opinion. Which is OK to share on an internet message board right?
Yet you posted the following in the main Luongo thread only this morning in response to a Florida fan who said Tallon would not include Petrovic in any deal for Luongo

Quoting your good self:

^Here we go again, fans speaking for their GMs in the Luongo thread....:

...........which based on your postings in this thread is completely hypocritical.

.....so let me clarify. You can present stuff as fact, speak for a player/GM but nobody else can........ok, got it.

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