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US Elections: Incumbent Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney, Et Al

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Old
11-06-2012, 11:35 AM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Bob Richards View Post
Popped my voting cherry a few minutes ago. Felt like an adult. Then they gave me a lollipop and that died quickly.
How old do you have to be to vote in The US of A then? In Norway we must be 18.

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11-06-2012, 11:36 AM
  #77
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I'm pretty much where Saugus is on the social things. I believe gays should be able to be married, I don't like abortion, but I definitely wouldn't want it to be illegal. I don't like any drugs, and I don't even drink alcohol anymore, but I'm for legalization. You won't see me marching in the street for drug legalization, but I'm for it. At the very least marijuana. As played out as this probably is I've seen alcohol destroy more lives than marijuana.


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How old do you have to be to vote in The US of A then? In Norway we must be 18.
Same here. 18 as well.

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Old
11-06-2012, 11:38 AM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
The 99% thing is way overdone. This stems from Nate Silver's 92% analysis, he's become something of a liberal hero this cycle, but I consider him much a clown. I view him like that guy that claims he speaks to dead people.

On the turnout, that is everything.

Some of the biggest polls are sampling Democrats in a proportion ≥ that of the historic 2008 Dem wave election. Tough to believe.
Incomplete analysis of this. He also ran the numbers if the 2004 turnout numbers were used, and in that case Obama's advantage in many swing states diminishes, but he is still ahead using that assumption.

Pollsters like PPP do oversample Democratic voters, and his model acknowledges that house bias and weights it accordingly. Similarly, Rasmussen's methods tend to heavily oversample Republicans (he doesn't call cell phones and doesn't call more than once if he doesn't get a response, also his definition of a likely voter is more stringent than average), and his polls have been consistently 2 or 3 points to the right of the consensus polling average. The model is said to correct for that too.

We'll see. With several state polls (even the Republican leaning ones) showing consistent movement toward Obama over the last week, Romney's only chance is if the pollsters are all oversampling Democrats to an absurd degree.

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11-06-2012, 11:39 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Blackhawkswincup View Post
One reason the 08 model being used to predict things is flawed is because the youth vote wont be there this time

In 08 the youth vote for Obama was a big thing ,, Alot of those voters seem uninterested or disappointed by last 4 years and wont be at the polls this time

The youth vote wont be there in the #'s it was in 08
My little sis is 18 and she is going to vote for Obama... her good friend is a daughter or rich parents and she thinks Romney is the best thing since sliced bread. I think a lot of kids don't get involved enough nowadays and they will vote whatever their parents preach in the house.

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11-06-2012, 11:39 AM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
Nate Silver had it at 91% chance for Obama yesterday. I'm a little sceptical of his model, though the methodology of going by state to state polling seems fairly sound. I guess we'll know tonight.
As yo should be. Questions I'd like to ask Mr. Silver:

1) Given your "model" is based on state polling, why is it logically any more apt to be right if the polls in a given cycle are wrong?

2) Why didn't you come clean about your Obama2008 relationship?

3) How is what you're doing any different from a smart high school kid putting polls in excel and running a simple Monte Carlo simulation? (i.e. why cant anyone do this)

4) How do you decide which polls to include or not and there weights? (because pro-Obama polls seem to often get better weighing)


My own opinion? A big part of Nate Silver's "job" at the New York Times is to increase Democratic voter enthusiasm and thus voter turnout.

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11-06-2012, 11:40 AM
  #81
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I made a comment about how Romney passed liberal legislation as MA governor because his people demanded it but now he has to appease the crazies in the tea party and take every stance opposite Obama.

Someone answers "Ya I get yappy when my side's losing too"

so ****ing retarded...

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11-06-2012, 11:42 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
Regardless of the party in control, having a government where almost "nothing would get passed into law", is close to my ideal form of government.

That's essentially what the Founding Fathers intended.
Have you ever seen the British comedy "Yes Minister"? It's obviously a different system over there, but it's a similar concept to what you're talking about here. The main character is a newly elected government Minister, and the permanent civil servants who work under him always try to make sure that none of his agenda gets passed because they prefer the status quo. Very funny satire of the nuances of bureaucracy, and many politicians have actually admitted it's fairly accurate.

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11-06-2012, 11:42 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by fredrikstad View Post
How old do you have to be to vote in The US of A then? In Norway we must be 18.
18. I'm lucky I get to vote for the President at my age. I have some friends who will vote in their first presidential election at 21-22.

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Old
11-06-2012, 11:43 AM
  #84
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Originally Posted by Basement Cat View Post
281-257 Obama is what I think

I have Romney 290, Obama 248 (map below).

But I think it could just as easily be Obama 290, Romney 248.

In other words, while I think the popular vote will be close, because of demographic breaks, I think whoever wins will handily win the Electoral College. But who knows? There ARE a few paths for each to barely get 270, and a not implausible route to 269-269!!!

http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio...php?mapid=bnCb

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11-06-2012, 11:44 AM
  #85
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Fiscally conservative, socially liberal. The way I am and the way I feel a lot of young people are. Too bad someone like Huntsman didn't gain more traction.
Exactly. That type of candidate would win nearly every election. Too bad there aren't too many in power that are like that. I always liked Huntsman.

Went with Romney but I think Obama wins.

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11-06-2012, 11:45 AM
  #86
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Originally Posted by njdevil26 View Post
I think a lot of kids don't get involved enough nowadays and they will vote whatever their parents preach in the house.
good point, but i think most kids will do the OPPOSITE of what their parents preach..18 is a fun age

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11-06-2012, 11:46 AM
  #87
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I'm as optimistic as 332 for Obama and as pessimistic as 259 for Obama. Nothing less than that though. the polls would have to be really off

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11-06-2012, 11:48 AM
  #88
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My buddy swears Obama is going down in a landslide. My uncle does too. My uncle, and I bet a rack of ribs over it next time we see each other. If Obama wins I buy the ribs. If Obama loses he buys them.

I don't like Obama, but I still feel like he has a good chance of winning this thing. My uncle says he think it's over by 11:30 PM Eastern time, if not 10:30, or 11:00. So before the polls even close in Obama's Hawaii. I just don't see Romney taking it this easy, if at all.

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11-06-2012, 11:48 AM
  #89
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good point, but i think most kids will do the OPPOSITE of what their parents preach..18 is a fun age
Short story:

When I was 18, my father's family business was booming and we had more money than we could handle. My parents were big republicans and always voted for the party line. Because of that, I went to college as a republican conservative that just echoed the things I heard.

After taking political classes in college, meeting more intelligent and interesting people, I'm now the complete opposite. I consider myself overall democratic and liberal (even though I agree with the conservatives on immigration laws and such).

After the down economy was at its worst and the family business started to struggle, my family is far more left leaning than before.

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11-06-2012, 11:49 AM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Blackhawkswincup View Post
Alot of those voters seem uninterested or disappointed by last 4 years and wont be at the polls this time
see, this I donít get (although you may be right).

looking down the list of obamaís accomplishments, its actually pretty impressive considering all circumstances. Iíve had politicians and bill o reilly shouting at me that he hasnít done anything about anything, but aside from that I donít see any evidence of that.

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11-06-2012, 11:50 AM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Blackhawkswincup View Post
In 08 the youth vote for Obama was a big thing ,,
The youth vote wont be there in the #'s it was in 08
True. But the other difference is that Republicans were meh on McCain to begin with, and everyone knew he'd lose (suppresses turnout).

And anecdotally, McCain wasnt drawing 25,000+ to cornfields in rural PA. I think the R to D gap is being greatly exaggerated in these polls. And frankly, the Early Voter data where Obama is underperforming supports that hypothesis.


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We'll see. With several state polls (even the Republican leaning ones) showing consistent movement toward Obama over the last week, Romney's only chance is if the pollsters are all oversampling Democrats to an absurd degree.
Exactly, but that's not that far-fetched. Do disagree on Silver though, I think if you learned more about his past failures, or over-trumped "correct" predictions, you'd be less enthralled with him. Lets just say, I dont think he'll ever be working elections in the UK again.

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Have you ever seen the British comedy "Yes Minister"?
No, but it sounds pretty funny. Will check out if it's on BBC America or NF.

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11-06-2012, 11:55 AM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
As yo should be. Questions I'd like to ask Mr. Silver:

1) Given your "model" is based on state polling, why is it logically any more apt to be right if the polls in a given cycle are wrong?

4) How do you decide which polls to include or not and there weights? (because pro-Obama polls seem to often get better weighing)
I don't know anything about the other two questions, but I'll address these with some questions of my own:

1. How have you decided that all the polls that show a certain result must be wrong? Different pollsters have different biases, and he is taking the average of them. It's not like he's throwing out the Gallup and Rasmussen results because they tend to lean toward the GOP.

If you think there is a systematic bias against the Republicans across several polling firms, why do you think that? What methods are they using that do not simulate reality? What methods should they be using, and which pollsters are doing that? How could they all be biased against one party, is what I'm asking?

4. This one I think he does address. Over the years, pollsters show obvious house effects on their results. Some skew heavily Democratic, some skew heavily Republican, some have a moderate lean one way or the other. He includes polls from reputable sources, like polling firms, media outlets, and universities. As far as I know he's not throwing out polls just because they come from Fox News or something like that.

As for the weighting, I think it's clear that older polls get less weight, and that polls with larger sample sizes get more weight. As for how he adjusts for house effects, I have to say I don't entirely know. I'm not convinced that Florida is truly a tossup right now, his adjustments have taken the state from slightly red to slightly blue and I don't think that's correct.

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Originally Posted by GM17 View Post
I made a comment about how Romney passed liberal legislation as MA governor because his people demanded it but now he has to appease the crazies in the tea party and take every stance opposite Obama.

Someone answers "Ya I get yappy when my side's losing too"

so ****ing retarded...
This is one reason I don't like Romney. I live in a state that borders Massachusetts. He made the news here plenty. As the governor there he seemed like a RINO, a Republican in Name Only who really held many liberal positions, including passing a healthcare law that was the basis for Obamacare, which he now discredits. Then in the primaries, he slanted heavily to the right in order to get the votes from the Bible belt, flipping many of his previous positions and hoping that everyone would forget. And now in the general election he has attempted to paint himself as a moderate.

Which one of these three men is the real Romney? I really do not know, and that scares the hell out of me.

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11-06-2012, 11:55 AM
  #93
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Either way I want Christie in 2016

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11-06-2012, 11:59 AM
  #94
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Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
This is one reason I don't like Romney. I live in a state that borders Massachusetts. He made the news here plenty. As the governor there he seemed like a RINO, a Republican in Name Only who really held many liberal positions, including passing a healthcare law that was the basis for Obamacare, which he now discredits. Then in the primaries, he slanted heavily to the right in order to get the votes from the Bible belt, flipping many of his previous positions and hoping that everyone would forget. And now in the general election he has attempted to paint himself as a moderate.

Which one of these three men is the real Romney? I really do not know, and that scares the hell out of me.
Ya I get yappy when my team's losing too

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11-06-2012, 11:59 AM
  #95
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Hey Saugus I thought the same thing about Romney. Before he got the nomination hardcore republican's were saying ''Man Mitt is a RINO! Odumbo will probably get reelected because the party can't give us anyone better if Romney gets the nomination!'' Now people are embracing him. Not even so much as a lesser of two evils. Their disliking for Obama I would say has really got them into Romney though.

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11-06-2012, 12:00 PM
  #96
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There's nothing in Romney's character profile that says he's a wacked out righty. He's a technocratic numbers guy who, from 1994 to 2005-06, was very moderate on social issues. He did what he had to do to appease the draconian members of his party, and is now shifting back towards his more long standing positions.

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11-06-2012, 12:00 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
This is one reason I don't like Romney. I live in a state that borders Massachusetts. He made the news here plenty. As the governor there he seemed like a RINO, a Republican in Name Only who really held many liberal positions, including passing a healthcare law that was the basis for Obamacare, which he now discredits. Then in the primaries, he slanted heavily to the right in order to get the votes from the Bible belt, flipping many of his previous positions and hoping that everyone would forget. And now in the general election he has attempted to paint himself as a moderate.

Which one of these three men is the real Romney? I really do not know, and that scares the hell out of me.
To be fair, Romney has said he likes the Obamacare type of health care in MA because it worked for that specific state. I think Romney is more of a pragmatist than people give him credit for, appeasing the far right to win the nomination, but I just can't see him being like that if he gets to the White House.

And I don't get why everyone says he's such a weak candidate, he's actually a pretty strong one considering he won the MA Governor race in a blue state. That is pretty damn impressive. McCain was a much weaker candidate and campaigner imo.

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11-06-2012, 12:02 PM
  #98
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Regardless of the party in control, having a government where almost "nothing would get passed into law", is close to my ideal form of government.

That's essentially what the Founding Fathers intended.
That would be fine with me except for the Patriot act took away so much of what the founding fathers intended to be our basic freedoms. Need more laws now to re-instate what was once ours.

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11-06-2012, 12:02 PM
  #99
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Sarah Palin didn't help.

American parties are so obsessed with the other it's crazy.

Obama says gay marriage should be legal

Hour later Romney says opposite

Hilary Clinton amasses a tonne of support amongst women

GOP announce Palin as a VP candidate

It's so ****ing reactionary

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11-06-2012, 12:03 PM
  #100
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Originally Posted by HeliDevil View Post
To be fair, Romney has said he likes the Obamacare type of health care in MA because it worked for that specific state. I think Romney is more of a pragmatist than people give him credit for, appeasing the far right to win the nomination, but I just can't see him being like that if he gets to the White House.

And I don't get why everyone says he's such a weak candidate, he's actually a pretty strong one considering he won the MA Governor race in a blue state. That is pretty damn impressive. McCain was a much weaker candidate and campaigner imo.
Only people on the extremes of either aisle think Romney is a weak candidate. Extreme liberals buy the Obama-perpetrated BS about Romney's so-called anti-women stances, while many hard line republicans don't like him because he's a flip flopper who doesn't embody the radicalism they desire.

Romney has an extremely impressive background and is an extremely smart guy.

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