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US Elections: Incumbent Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney, Et Al

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Old
11-06-2012, 01:41 PM
  #126
VaxjoDevil
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Obama does not need to beat his own numbers from 2008. He has to beat Mitt Romney.

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11-06-2012, 01:41 PM
  #127
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Mitt Romney - 80%
Virgil Goode - 73%
Gary Johnson - 67%
Barack Obama - 59%

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11-06-2012, 01:47 PM
  #128
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Well, that's troublesome.

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11-06-2012, 01:47 PM
  #129
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Denouncing one bias while ignoring the other? Couldn't be.

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Old
11-06-2012, 01:50 PM
  #130
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Originally Posted by Saugus View Post


Well, that's troublesome.
Nevermind. The robots are already self-aware. It's over.

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Old
11-06-2012, 01:51 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
Come on BG, you're getting a little too far into tinfoil hat territory here.
I've analyzed actual, publicly available, hard vote count data, from battlefield state reporting counties.

And I've made a LOT of $$$$ on this election, and expect to continue to do so tonight. Say what you want to say, I know what I'm talking about.

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Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
Of course Obama's early numbers are looking worse than they did in 2008. Nobody expects a ****housing like that again. But they aren't as bad as some of the Republican leaning pollsters have said. You're denouncing bias in one direction and not seeing it in the other.
There really arent that many "republican leaning pollsters" out there. There's SSP&R, but they only do PA. There's another in the midwest, but small. There's Rasmussen, but he was the closest public pollster in the 2008 election, so if he's biased, I dont see the problem.

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Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
Odds are, while Obama's margins are slimmer in many of the swing states, they are still enough to put him over the top. I just do not see a way Romney wins Ohio with the poll numbers there looking the way they do. Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and New Hampshire are probably out of reach too.
This may be 100% correct, which is why if you notice I'm NOT saying Romney will win, but that he has a MUCH better chance than you're being led to believe.

Lets go through your states.

OH - Something like 52:48 or 53:47 bogey in ED voting for Romney. He has a VERY good chance to win here despite what polls say and media are telling you.

IA - slight Obama edge, again, much closer than you're led to believe

NV - stick a fork in it Obama won it. Obama up 7% in EV, Romney cant tackle that margin even if he pulls a 56:44 today.

NH - WORST polls of any battleground state poll in nation. I'm predicting a Romney win here, which I know sounds crazy. I wish there were Vegas odds for this state, they'd probably be 5:1.

PA - I do not believe the hype. Obama should win here. If Obama doesnt win PA, it's 1980 type blowout again where the polls that all said Carter would win are wrong.

WI - Dunno. Obviously Obama2012 is worried given all the attention they've lavished here. Keep in mind, SAME pollsters than have Obama winning here, have Obama winning by LESS than they had Scott Walker's challenger winning by (and Scott Walker's challenger got his azz kicked by 7%). Just food for thought.

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Originally Posted by VaxjoDevil View Post
Obama does not need to beat his own numbers from 2008. He has to beat Mitt Romney.
Exactly.

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11-06-2012, 01:51 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by Saugus View Post


Well, that's troublesome.
There's been a few reports of people having the same things happen in the opposite direction during early voting.

The machines needing calibration is then blamed...which seems stupid, since they apparently can't stay calibrated very long and become massively uncalibrated when they start to shift.

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Old
11-06-2012, 01:56 PM
  #133
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Mine was electronic and not a touchscreen. It would be impossible to pick one candidate and have my "X" show up under another.

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11-06-2012, 01:59 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by njdevsfn95 View Post
Mine was electronic and not a touchscreen. It would be impossible to pick one candidate and have my "X" show up under another.
You're going to hear 9999 stories about someone touching Romney and getting Obama or Obama and getting Romney. Probably 9 of these 9999 will be true.

If there's one thing I'm SICK of this election cycle, is all the fake "voter fraud" and "voter suppression" stories in the media. 99.9% of which, are complete BS just intended to inflame whichever base the propaganda is intended for.

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Old
11-06-2012, 02:02 PM
  #135
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BG, it would be helpful if you could dial back the condescension. We don't do this political talk often for obvious reasons, but you're assuming that you're smarter and better informed than everyone else is, and it gets somewhat annoying.

I have done a lot of research on this too, and it is quite possible for reasonable people to disagree and still be cordial to each other. That is all I ask of you. Attack my position all you like, but do not assume that I am a sheep to be led by the nose, because it insults my intelligence.

Now then:

I understand that there may be some systematic bias in the polls, but with Obama gaining some separation in the national polls over the last few days, I do not believe it could possibly be so far off as to have all of those state polls wrong. When you have 19 of 21 swing state polls of likely voters coming back yesterday with modest margins in favour of Obama, what other conclusion can you draw?

Maybe they are somehow all oversampling Democrats and overestimating their turnout, but more likely is that their likely voter methodology is more or less accurate and it does reflect the state of the race.

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11-06-2012, 02:02 PM
  #136
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Touch screen's are VERY angle-dependent.

How many times have you gone to the ATM and hit the wrong button because you're in an SUV and the drive thru was designed for a car? Or vice versa? I do it all the time.

And depending on where you hold the camera, you could easily make it look like that person is pressing something other than they are. Or some video editing. Call me crazy, but I am VERY skeptical about that video.

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11-06-2012, 02:04 PM
  #137
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As long as my long dead cat Snowball doesnt vote Bob, fraud away.

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11-06-2012, 02:06 PM
  #138
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
BG, it would be helpful if you could dial back the condescension. We don't do this political talk often for obvious reasons, but you're assuming that you're smarter and better informed than everyone else is, and it gets somewhat annoying.
If you can't drown that part of his speak out, you haven't read his posts long enough.

This thread is going to be **** hole for a couple days and then it'll be locked and back to no politics. Enjoy it while it lasts Saugus.

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11-06-2012, 02:13 PM
  #139
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Very true, CB, but that doesnt mean he has to do it.

We already know he thinks he knows more than we know but i dont think he knows that we know he thinks he knows more than we know.

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11-06-2012, 02:14 PM
  #140
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
BG, it would be helpful if you could dial back the condescension. We don't do this political talk often for obvious reasons, but you're assuming that you're smarter and better informed than everyone else is, and it gets somewhat annoying.
It was you who accused me of wearing a "tin-foil hat" and "bias" not the other way around. I find it a pretty big lack of self-awareness to thus be the one making an accusation of "condescension". I never said anything remotely critical until that comment. Even after, I dont see how what I said rises to "condescension". Certainly wasnt intended to be.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
I have done a lot of research on this too, and it is quite possible for reasonable people to disagree and still be cordial to each other. That is all I ask of you. Attack my position all you like, but do not assume that I am a sheep to be led by the nose, because it insults my intelligence.
I was referring to most people in general when I talked about information disseminated by the media, meaning "everyone" and the public at large, not just you (I thought that was obvious, sorry is not).

But you did make a statement that is being floated in media that can easily and quickly be refuted by even a cursory glance at the data. That's all I'm saying. Nobody would reasonably look at the OH early voter data and think Obama2012 is happy with it. Again, it may not matter, Obama may very well win Ohio, but if you think they're doing "well" by having the 10 best Democratic counties DOWN about 7% from 2008 and the rest of Ohio UP > 10% from 2008? I dont know what to tell you.

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11-06-2012, 02:16 PM
  #141
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Old
11-06-2012, 02:23 PM
  #142
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And that, sir, is why they are contained to this thread...

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11-06-2012, 02:24 PM
  #143
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i think I got 87% Gary Johnson. I took the test a while back. Maybe a month or even two. It also said I was more republican than libertarian though which I didn't like much.

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11-06-2012, 02:28 PM
  #144
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Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
99.9% of which, are complete BS just intended to inflame whichever base the propaganda is intended for.
i've already seen many examples of this via video and pics. 99.9% BS is just...a lazy thing to say.

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Old
11-06-2012, 02:31 PM
  #145
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Fiscally conservative, socially liberal. The way I am and the way I feel a lot of young people are. Too bad someone like Huntsman didn't gain more traction.
This describes me. I feel like it really describes most people, but certain sides of it mean more to someone depending on where they are in lide

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Old
11-06-2012, 02:35 PM
  #146
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i've already seen many examples of this via video and pics. 99.9% BS is just...a lazy thing to say.
Yes, I was intentionally exaggerating with 99.9%, wasnt meant to be literal.

My point is, so much of what we hear now is just intended to make us angry with each other. Some of the stuff on the far-left like Huffington Post or the stuff on the far-right like Twitchy is good, but a lot of it is propaganda-like to intended to stir emotion and anger.

I'm saying that >2/3s (more realistic percentage) of these "voter fraud" or "voter suppression" tales are just nonsense.

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Old
11-06-2012, 02:37 PM
  #147
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91% Mitt Romney for me.

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Old
11-06-2012, 02:43 PM
  #148
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Nevermind. The robots are already self-aware. It's over.
SkyNet lives!

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11-06-2012, 02:44 PM
  #149
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If all the people who say they'd vote for Johnson if it wasn't a wasted vote actually, ya know, voted, he'd win at least one state.

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11-06-2012, 02:48 PM
  #150
BenedictGomez
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All this Gary Johnson talk reminds me to bring up another factoid most arent considering.

These polls?

Majority did NOT take Gary Johnson into account even though he's on the ballot. Romney or Obama? <--- was asked.

Ponder away at that one.

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