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Old
11-03-2012, 03:45 PM
  #51
bambamcam4ever
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Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
1. Even if he looks to pass, he's not good at it.
2. I don't really agree that he does that.
3. Putting him into a shooting position is silly because he would be the worst shooter on the powerplay.
4. Putting him in a passing position is silly because he would be far and away the worst passer on the powerplay.
5. Putting him in a position where he can choose to do either is silly because he might be the worst decision maker on the team.

I like TK for his 3rd line position. I seriously do. I don't love him, but he is solid there. His skill set simply does not lend to playing on the top powerplay. Put him over there as the shooter on the second powerplay unit. Tell him his job is simply to get pucks on net. He can do that. But when the other options on his line are 4 all stars or Kunitz, I really don't see a spot for him. Give me Neal or Kunitz out there over him 100% of the time; handedness be damned.
I didn't say I wanted him on the 1st PP.

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11-03-2012, 07:33 PM
  #52
Ogrezilla
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Originally Posted by wgknestrick View Post
Total BS

"Kennedy is not a good passer"

This is same head in the sand attitude that affects all the "watch the game" guys. I see nothing but opinions here supported by not a single piece of data. If you actually started to bring data and results to the table, you'd find your opinion has more mileage.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...5+17+18+19+20#

For example:
Clicking on the link above shows TK ranked #8 overall last year in first assists / 60min. This isn't among the Pens, but the entire league of forwards.

Pretty hard to believe that a top 10 assist guy could be a "terrible" passer on any account. These aren't the give-me bonus 2nd assists either. He was top 10 in 1st assists/min of icetime. He is making the last pass before a goal is scored on a top 10 (NHL) level. Do you see how actually confirming your opinion with data makes that opinion turn more towards fact than just uniformed opinion? My opinion of TK is that he is generally an above average passer and that a lot of his passes also go off the goaltender to rebound shot opportunities (which are very high % shots). Granted, last year was his best year to date, but he is nearing his peak. He has generally been around top 50 in 1st assists in the NHL prior to last year.

While you are browsing the list, take a glance at all the company that TK keeps in play-making. Once again, I question what you guys are "watching" when TK hits the ice? It is quite a bit different from what I see. I would expect to see a "terrible passer" outside the top 150 on this list (ie below average), not inside the top 10.

I see TK as a great possession play-maker type that is let down sometimes by shot selection. I would love to see what he can do setting up Crosby's/Dupers shot on a consistent basis. He has the speed, agility, work ethic, and stick handling to play with them. He will have to slightly change his game to play with superior talent, but I am pretty confident he can do that.
That stat doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. For one, you can get an assist without passing the puck. Two, those per 60 minutes stats tend to be a joke. His career high for assists is 24. I don't care what the per 60 minutes tells you; Tyler Kennedy is not a "top 10 assist guy" and he is not a great possession play-maker. He is a capable possession playmaker against depth defensemen. There is a reason he doesn't get more minutes with Sid or Geno and its pretty simple. He doesn't deserve more minutes with Sid or Geno. He isn't a top 6 player. We have been looking for a good RHS wing for the top 6 for a while now. I'm sure the coaches aren't overlooking TK for ***** and giggles. They are overlooking him because he isn't a good option for the position.

Seriously, I like TK. He's a solid 3rd liner. But calling him a top 10 assist guy in the league is a freaking joke. His 22 assists are good enough to tie him for 184th in the league in assists. Lets pretend he played a full season (something he has never done in his career) and we see that he would jump all the way up to 30 assists; good for a tie for 100th in the league.

I just don't get how you can look at a guy's per 60 minute stats and call him a top player at a skill without asking the obvious question "why isn't he getting more minutes?" Dupuis had a higher points per 60 minutes than Giroux last year at even strength. If you were a coach and needed your team to score an even strength goal, would you want Giroux or Dupuis on the ice?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacob View Post
The TK hate is, at times, extreme and unnecessary.

People that are nitpicking his shot selection or passing abilities are missing the big picture.

He's not a skill-guy. Points wise he's a mediocre winger, but he works hard, forechecks, gets to a lot of loose pucks and wins more battles than he loses.. he's fairly paid and is a good fit for a 3rd line role. And in spurts he's shown he can keep up in a top 6 spot too, if the need arises. I've always liked him and I think it'd be harder to replace him than some might think.

in short, LEAVE TYLER ALLOOONNEE
I agree with this. I like him in his 3rd line role. He's also a decent enough fill-in for injuries in the top 6.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bambamcam4ever View Post
I didn't say I wanted him on the 1st PP.
fair enough. Though he is used on the 2nd unit already. We just barely use the 2nd unit.


Last edited by Ogrezilla: 11-03-2012 at 07:46 PM.
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Old
11-05-2012, 03:38 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Shady Machine View Post
You are exactly right but the reason people are criticizing him in this thread is because the poster above you seems to think he is a great top 6 winger in the same category as Nick Backstrom.

And to you Mr. Stats guy, why haven't you addressed any of my posts? I have called out your stats and methodology several times and you just ignore it and mention your ridiculous assertions that TK is "a top ten assist man" in the league. Get a grip.
What have you called out? Nothing. Until I see a single ounce of data to support any of your opinions, (they will be just that). I have simply provided some data that contradicts your opinion, but now the data is "wrong"? How is it wrong? What are you calling out? More importantly, what is your proof that it is wrong? That is "calling out"; Don't just say something is wrong, but "prove it". Prove that TK sucks or whatever your agenda may be.

TK has played for just one team, and for the most part, a single coach. The /60min stats are used to put every player on the same baseline regardless of how much a team decides to use them. Players don't have a say on how often they hop over the bench, just what they do while on the ice. These stats are a decent indicator as to who is most likely to do "what" / minute of 5v5 ice time. It is a very common way to try to put things on a more even playing field. Sure, we can look at season totals, but they don't tell us much because they aren't adjusted for ice time (quantity and type).

The better question is "Why doesn't TK get more minutes in spite of being fairly productive while on the ice?" This is a much better question over holding a single person's opinion (Byslma's) as infallible and assuming he is effectively utilizing every single player to the fullest extent. Would you also use this flawed logic and state that OV was a sub par player because Hunter barely played him last year? Coach utilization should never be used in any evaluation because it is 100% dependent on the coach being "right" or not. Might as well flip a coin.

Also remember that TK played on Staal's line. Staal's line generally went up against the #1-#2 lines. (there is also data to prove this too). I would estimate that most teams don't pair up their 3rd pairing D men with their top 2 lines very often. I definitely know they aren't forcing their 3rd pairing out against TK to get their "match-up".

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Old
11-05-2012, 08:34 PM
  #54
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my data is TKs career high 24 assists and his 14:22 of ice time a game despite playing on a team who has been looking for a wing upgrade for years. You don't like those stats, but they are the only actual stats we can go off of. You are proposing that a stat awarding hypothetical value for hypothetical ice time is more valid than real stats and I think that far is less valid than assuming that Bylsma and Therrien know what they are doing. You can't speculate on what a player would do given a bigger role on the team.

How many games missed due to injury per 60 minutes of ice time does TK have? If we increase his ice time per game, won't he miss more games?

edit: its 1.121 games missed due to injury per 60 minutes of ice time. So according to that stat, if you increased his ice time from 14:22 a game to 20 minutes a game, he would have only played 52 games last season. Its supported by data, that means it has to be true.


Last edited by Ogrezilla: 11-05-2012 at 10:14 PM.
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Old
11-06-2012, 09:01 AM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wgknestrick View Post
What have you called out? Nothing. Until I see a single ounce of data to support any of your opinions, (they will be just that). I have simply provided some data that contradicts your opinion, but now the data is "wrong"? How is it wrong? What are you calling out? More importantly, what is your proof that it is wrong? That is "calling out"; Don't just say something is wrong, but "prove it". Prove that TK sucks or whatever your agenda may be.

TK has played for just one team, and for the most part, a single coach. The /60min stats are used to put every player on the same baseline regardless of how much a team decides to use them. Players don't have a say on how often they hop over the bench, just what they do while on the ice. These stats are a decent indicator as to who is most likely to do "what" / minute of 5v5 ice time. It is a very common way to try to put things on a more even playing field. Sure, we can look at season totals, but they don't tell us much because they aren't adjusted for ice time (quantity and type).

The better question is "Why doesn't TK get more minutes in spite of being fairly productive while on the ice?" This is a much better question over holding a single person's opinion (Byslma's) as infallible and assuming he is effectively utilizing every single player to the fullest extent. Would you also use this flawed logic and state that OV was a sub par player because Hunter barely played him last year? Coach utilization should never be used in any evaluation because it is 100% dependent on the coach being "right" or not. Might as well flip a coin.

Also remember that TK played on Staal's line. Staal's line generally went up against the #1-#2 lines. (there is also data to prove this too). I would estimate that most teams don't pair up their 3rd pairing D men with their top 2 lines very often. I definitely know they aren't forcing their 3rd pairing out against TK to get their "match-up".
What I am "calling you out" on is making conclusions of near certainty (Kennedy is a good top 6 winger) based on a projection of ONE statistic. That is extremely poor logic when it comes to forecasting any type of data. Statistical analysis is a complicated process and even multiple linear regression models usually have a "model of precision" factor/adjustment that is used for the "qualitative piece" of the equation.

In this case, the very simple statistic that you are proposing needs to be taken with the larger context as well as coaching experts, the team's needs, scoring at other levels, etc. As Ogre pointed out, just by using one other statistic (games injured per 60min) it is evident that TK would likely play less games and therefore wouldn't score at the pace you are projecting. In addition, there is a point where increased ice time leads to decreased effectiveness. I'm not arguing that 14 min is TK's max effectiveness, but rather playing him 20 minutes ES is no guarantee that he would produce at the same pace (or even a similar pace).

Additionally, we all know that there has been a top 6 winger spot for the taking over the last few years so the opportunity has been there. You could argue that it is a coaching error to not put TK there, but from what I've seen, and have mentioned several times in this thread, TK just doesn't have the hockey IQ, passing creativity or style to play with Sid or Geno. So, IMO, you wouldn't see a net increase in goals scored on the top 2 lines by adding him. I can't "prove" that, but to me, I'll trust the coaching staff, my own eyes, and the analysis of the best posters on this board over one projected statistic and a poster claiming that TK is in the same class as Backstrom.

At the end of the day, your position is still your opinion. You are backing it up by one statistic and in every statistic there are outliers. Based on everything I've watched and read, TK is an outlier for that statistic. Also, I'd be interested to see what his production for that stat over his career. I will admit, and always have, that TK is a very effective player and is a great third line winger. He is extremely hard working, chippy, and can produce big time goals as we have seen in past playoffs. I like him very much, but I know he has limitations. It seems we disagree on these limitations.

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Old
11-06-2012, 10:50 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Burgs View Post
Tenacity, to me, is part of the job requirement for a 3rd line winger. I like that about Kennedy for sure, but I don't consider it an outstanding advantage of his. I'm also worried this style keeps him getting injured. But yeah, his hustle is always welcome. I wonder what the Pens will do if he puts up a 25 goal season and someone else offers him 3+ a year. I guess it will depend on how our wing prospects develop.
If that's the case Shero should try and trade his rights for a pick before FA, if he can't then let him walk. If TK went into a bidding war and went north of 3m. It's time to just walk away. Not worth the money to pay 3M or more for a guy with a consistency of putting up the numbers that salary merits.

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11-06-2012, 11:39 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Shady Machine View Post
What I am "calling you out" on is making conclusions of near certainty (Kennedy is a good top 6 winger) based on a projection of ONE statistic. That is extremely poor logic when it comes to forecasting any type of data. Statistical analysis is a complicated process and even multiple linear regression models usually have a "model of precision" factor/adjustment that is used for the "qualitative piece" of the equation.

In this case, the very simple statistic that you are proposing needs to be taken with the larger context as well as coaching experts, the team's needs, scoring at other levels, etc. As Ogre pointed out, just by using one other statistic (games injured per 60min) it is evident that TK would likely play less games and therefore wouldn't score at the pace you are projecting. In addition, there is a point where increased ice time leads to decreased effectiveness. I'm not arguing that 14 min is TK's max effectiveness, but rather playing him 20 minutes ES is no guarantee that he would produce at the same pace (or even a similar pace).

Additionally, we all know that there has been a top 6 winger spot for the taking over the last few years so the opportunity has been there. You could argue that it is a coaching error to not put TK there, but from what I've seen, and have mentioned several times in this thread, TK just doesn't have the hockey IQ, passing creativity or style to play with Sid or Geno. So, IMO, you wouldn't see a net increase in goals scored on the top 2 lines by adding him. I can't "prove" that, but to me, I'll trust the coaching staff, my own eyes, and the analysis of the best posters on this board over one projected statistic and a poster claiming that TK is in the same class as Backstrom.

At the end of the day, your position is still your opinion. You are backing it up by one statistic and in every statistic there are outliers. Based on everything I've watched and read, TK is an outlier for that statistic. Also, I'd be interested to see what his production for that stat over his career. I will admit, and always have, that TK is a very effective player and is a great third line winger. He is extremely hard working, chippy, and can produce big time goals as we have seen in past playoffs. I like him very much, but I know he has limitations. It seems we disagree on these limitations.
Looking back at the last 4 seasons with TK against Pens forwards:

What about Corsi? (2nd, 6th, 2nd, 4th on Pens)
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...52+53+54+55+56

+- / 60min?
TK finished 2nd, 3rd, 9th, and 5th on the Pens the last 4 years. I see 1 year of a being a bottom 6 forward out of 3 "top 6" performances.

All I keep finding is a player that has delivered fairly consistent results at 5v5 the last 4 years. 10/11 was his worst season though. Sure his point totals aren't impressive, but neither is his opportunity to compile high totals with very little PP time and limited ice time. You cannot deny that he has been very effective 5v5 his entire career.

Is Crosby a bad player because he is injured a lot per 60min of ice-time? TK has had concussion issues too.

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11-07-2012, 06:31 AM
  #58
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most of us agree that TK is an effective 3rd line player. You are supporting that nicely. But there is no data that shows he is an effective top 6 forward because he has never been a top 6 forward long enough for that data to exist. From what I have seen, I don't think he would be very good in that position. The coaching staff seems to be in agreement. Until he actually has the chance to play in that position, we simply won't know. Opinions and speculation are all we have to go on. The data simply doesn't exist. The stats show he is effective in his 3rd line position but there are just too many variables to say they would translate to being effective in a bigger role.


Last edited by Ogrezilla: 11-07-2012 at 06:55 AM.
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11-07-2012, 09:41 AM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wgknestrick View Post
Looking back at the last 4 seasons with TK against Pens forwards:

What about Corsi? (2nd, 6th, 2nd, 4th on Pens)
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...52+53+54+55+56

+- / 60min?
TK finished 2nd, 3rd, 9th, and 5th on the Pens the last 4 years. I see 1 year of a being a bottom 6 forward out of 3 "top 6" performances.

All I keep finding is a player that has delivered fairly consistent results at 5v5 the last 4 years. 10/11 was his worst season though. Sure his point totals aren't impressive, but neither is his opportunity to compile high totals with very little PP time and limited ice time. You cannot deny that he has been very effective 5v5 his entire career.

Is Crosby a bad player because he is injured a lot per 60min of ice-time? TK has had concussion issues too.
So 10/11 was his worst year based on your stats. Hmm that interesting. What happened with TK in 10/11? Oh yeah that's right, he played top 6 minutes with Staal and Kunitz. You know what else is weird? He also scored the most points during that season. To me that says, as I mentioned, that TK is an anomaly. These stats aren't telling you what you think they are in his case. In his MOST productive season, the one that saw him score 21 goals, your stats indicate that it was his WORST season.

On top of that, he also saw an increase in even strength minutes playing a top 6 role against other top d pairings. As a result, according to your prized statistic, he produced at a lower rate. Isn't that what I have been saying all along? So in either case, the stats are misleading and that's what I have been arguing.

TK is no doubt a great third line winger that can produce in a top 6 role in a pinch. However, that stat does not mean that he would produce at the same rate on a go forward basis if given more ice time (as evidenced by the 10/11 season). He provides great scoring depth in a 3rd line role and can produce timely goals. He is worth his salary and has been valuable to this team. I'm not sure what else you are really looking for in this thread.

Anyway, agree to disagree on the great top 6 winger thing. Interesting discussion.

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11-07-2012, 01:10 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Shady Machine View Post
So 10/11 was his worst year based on your stats. Hmm that interesting. What happened with TK in 10/11? Oh yeah that's right, he played top 6 minutes with Staal and Kunitz. You know what else is weird? He also scored the most points during that season. To me that says, as I mentioned, that TK is an anomaly. These stats aren't telling you what you think they are in his case. In his MOST productive season, the one that saw him score 21 goals, your stats indicate that it was his WORST season.

On top of that, he also saw an increase in even strength minutes playing a top 6 role against other top d pairings. As a result, according to your prized statistic, he produced at a lower rate. Isn't that what I have been saying all along? So in either case, the stats are misleading and that's what I have been arguing.

TK is no doubt a great third line winger that can produce in a top 6 role in a pinch. However, that stat does not mean that he would produce at the same rate on a go forward basis if given more ice time (as evidenced by the 10/11 season). He provides great scoring depth in a 3rd line role and can produce timely goals. He is worth his salary and has been valuable to this team. I'm not sure what else you are really looking for in this thread.

Anyway, agree to disagree on the great top 6 winger thing. Interesting discussion.

I don't see it that way. The 10/11 season was also tough on Malkin, Dupers, Neal, and Staal's too. Just about every player rebounded from that season in 2012. The key (and it is fairly obvious) is that point totals are highly dependent on ice time. TK has his best point total despite it being one of his poorer seasons. Why? He was given just slightly more icetime on the PP. This is such a huge factor to point totals.

In general, that team was offensively strapped due to the lack of Malkin/Crosby games played that created waves throughout the offensive ranks. I also remember them playing a much more defensive minded game to try to compensate for the lack of talent at center. There are many factors that could cause a drop and it wasn't just isolated to TK. When Letestu is your #2 center, I don't think any wing (like TK) is going to have good numbers.

The key is not to discount the other 3 seasons of good results because 1 season is slightly out of line. I didn't discount Malkin after his 10/11 season, and I wouldn't do to TK either.

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11-07-2012, 02:37 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by wgknestrick View Post
I don't see it that way. The 10/11 season was also tough on Malkin, Dupers, Neal, and Staal's too. Just about every player rebounded from that season in 2012. The key (and it is fairly obvious) is that point totals are highly dependent on ice time. TK has his best point total despite it being one of his poorer seasons. Why? He was given just slightly more icetime on the PP. This is such a huge factor to point totals.

In general, that team was offensively strapped due to the lack of Malkin/Crosby games played that created waves throughout the offensive ranks. I also remember them playing a much more defensive minded game to try to compensate for the lack of talent at center. There are many factors that could cause a drop and it wasn't just isolated to TK. When Letestu is your #2 center, I don't think any wing (like TK) is going to have good numbers.

The key is not to discount the other 3 seasons of good results because 1 season is slightly out of line. I didn't discount Malkin after his 10/11 season, and I wouldn't do to TK either.
Fair enough. It's obvious you take these statistics much more seriously than I or many other posters do so there's no point in discussing it any further. Hopefully hockey is back soon so we can watch TK instead of debating his advanced stats.

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