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Old
11-07-2012, 08:15 PM
  #276
ECWHSWI
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Originally Posted by Drydenwasthebest View Post
100% true. However, the changes were not that significant from 2 seasons ago when we met the Bruins and fought them to a game 7 even with significant injuries that would have made the difference. Also, some of the changes from last season to this one are the necessary improvements in toughness and character that we desperately needed last year. As well, the entire change in coaching staff is significant, as is the managerial change.

The roster from the centennial year to now is about 85% different, but from last year and the season before, it is actually very similar. Now, we do need to stay healthy, which has been difficult, but that is true of any team.
our top 6 D included guys like Gill, Hamrlik, Wisniewski, Sopel and Spacek...

we also had Cammy, Pouliot, Halpern, Kostitsyn and Pyatt at forward...

more or less half the team... so, how similar is it really ?

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11-07-2012, 09:09 PM
  #277
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
our top 6 D included guys like Gill, Hamrlik, Wisniewski, Sopel and Spacek...

we also had Cammy, Pouliot, Halpern, Kostitsyn and Pyatt at forward...

more or less half the team... so, how similar is it really ?
I think the major difference is on defense.

The 2010-2011 team had five top-4 dmen: Markov, Gorges, Hamrlik, Subban, Wisniewski. It could take in two injuries and be ok. Note that at two injuries, the Wisniewski acquisition was essential to prevent total collapse.

The 2011-2012-2013 team has three top-4 dmen: Markov, Gorges, Subban. The team's D looks passable if you make the irrational "zero injuries" approximation, but it faces a catastrophic collapse if there is even a single injury, which is a vastly more likely outcome.

I think that the replacements of:
Gill+Spacek with Bouillon+Kaberle
Cammalleri+Kostitsyn with Cole+Bourque
Halpern with Nokelainen
Pouliot, Pyatt, Darche with Prust, Armstrong, Leblanc
are approximately lateral changes. But I could be wrong.

All of this to say, the Habs would benefit from a 40 game season. We can:

- run experiments with Eller and Desharnais to better inform future decisions down the middle;
- give 9 games to Galchenyuk and a few games each to Tinordi, Beaulieu, Ellis, etc to increase their hunger for their eventual NHL careers;
- test the trade market for Plekanec, Cole, Gionta, Markov, Kaberle, etc and learn if there are any offers too good to refuse;
- draft in the top-10 again and possibly the top-5. Erne would be great, Barkov would be better.

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11-07-2012, 09:45 PM
  #278
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Originally Posted by overlords View Post
Don't think there's any other team that can benefit from an amnesty buyout as much as the habs.
lol how can anyone not agree with this??

its 7 MILLION dollars for someone who isnt even penciled into 95% of the line ups posted on this board

there isnt a single team who could benefit more from this than US

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11-07-2012, 10:00 PM
  #279
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The habs will benefit from an amnesty buyout, but so will other teams, so it might be a wash for us.
Oh come on man. There aren't many teams that has a guy eating up 7.3M$ of the cap that is playing and producing like a 700k$ player.

The Habs will be clear winner if there's an amnesty buyout.

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11-07-2012, 10:13 PM
  #280
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Originally Posted by Rosso Scuderia View Post
Oh come on man. There aren't many teams that has a guy eating up 7.3M$ of the cap that is playing and producing like a 700k$ player.

The Habs will be clear winner if there's an amnesty buyout.
You and the other people with similar posts are right. Many teams have bad contracts, but that of Gomez is among the worst, and unlike NYR with Redden we can't (or won't?) bury him in the minors. When I wrote that incorrect post, I had not thought about it enough.

A good solution to the "players keep their contracts" issue, and the 50/50 issue, would be to:

- go to 50/50 very rapidly
- have no rollback of salaries
- Allow one or two buyouts per team, and have buyouts costs come out of the owner's share.

IMO this is "fair" as some players are more deserving of their contracts than others, lol. I'd be surprised if it happens though.

That said, getting rid of Gomez would be bad for the tank :-;


Last edited by DAChampion: 11-07-2012 at 10:20 PM.
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Old
11-07-2012, 11:15 PM
  #281
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
You and the other people with similar posts are right. Many teams have bad contracts, but that of Gomez is among the worst, and unlike NYR with Redden we can't (or won't?) bury him in the minors. When I wrote that incorrect post, I had not thought about it enough.

A good solution to the "players keep their contracts" issue, and the 50/50 issue, would be to:

- go to 50/50 very rapidly
- have no rollback of salaries
- Allow one or two buyouts per team, and have buyouts costs come out of the owner's share.

IMO this is "fair" as some players are more deserving of their contracts than others, lol. I'd be surprised if it happens though.

That said, getting rid of Gomez would be bad for the tank :-;
Not every owner would be willing to spend on buying out contracts.

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11-07-2012, 11:31 PM
  #282
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
You and the other people with similar posts are right. Many teams have bad contracts, but that of Gomez is among the worst, and unlike NYR with Redden we can't (or won't?) bury him in the minors. When I wrote that incorrect post, I had not thought about it enough.

A good solution to the "players keep their contracts" issue, and the 50/50 issue, would be to:

- go to 50/50 very rapidly
- have no rollback of salaries
- Allow one or two buyouts per team, and have buyouts costs come out of the owner's share.

IMO this is "fair" as some players are more deserving of their contracts than others, lol. I'd be surprised if it happens though.

That said, getting rid of Gomez would be bad for the tank :-;
I don't understand how the rollback and the 50/50 could work together. Assuming there is no rollbacks and all the existing salaries and cap hits stay the same, wouldn't that just make it harder to fit in new contracts within the new 50/50 salary cap because players will have to take considerably much less compared to their other teammates who are less valuable. Say a guy like Brad Richards who has a cap hit of 7.8m and a salary of 12m next year then there's Gaborik who is a ufa at the end of next year...there is no way the rangers will be able to offer him anything like 7.8m under the new cap.

Also on another note, if we buy out Gomez then I hope that ends our tanking. Last season was brutal, I'd rather we spend his 7m on a reliable ufa or a player we can acquire through a trade. We've invested enough in the future for us to no longer tank, and we also have 4 picks in the first two rounds. Our farm team is starting to look good and promising, we have some great new players in the chl. It's time to go into a win-now mode and the new management looks much better than the cluster f... we went through since the lockout.

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Old
11-07-2012, 11:44 PM
  #283
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ottawa,

50/50 and honouring contracts are totally incompatible, as you suspect, unless there's a hack. Examples of hacks include:

- phasing in 50/50 over several years (suggested by players), thus hoping that growth erases the incompatibility.
- honouring contracts but deferring some payments to the distant future (suggested by owners), and thus players still get their money, but not on the same timescale.

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Old
11-08-2012, 12:19 AM
  #284
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On another note, if there is an amnesty buyout, it might be worth considering buying out Bourque and not Gomez.

Gomez is owed 7.36 million/year through 2013-2014.
Bourque is owed 3.33 million/year through 2015-2016.

Bourque is owed slightly more money (though less once you subtract replacement costs), however, his contract is longer-term, and it extends into the period when we need to be good.

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Old
11-08-2012, 06:53 AM
  #285
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I'm sure there are teams who are interested in Bourque, buying him out would be a mistake and he hasn't been given a real chance. He is a good player, let's be patient with him we coqui red him while he was suspended half way in the season

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11-08-2012, 07:22 AM
  #286
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
On another note, if there is an amnesty buyout, it might be worth considering buying out Bourque and not Gomez.

Gomez is owed 7.36 million/year through 2013-2014.
Bourque is owed 3.33 million/year through 2015-2016.

Bourque is owed slightly more money (though less once you subtract replacement costs), however, his contract is longer-term, and it extends into the period when we need to be good.
Amnesty buyouts don't make much sense to me..
Rollbacks are unavoidable IMO. The sooner the players realize this, the faster the season will start.

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Old
11-08-2012, 08:26 AM
  #287
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
You say that you want to debate more respectfully, and I consider giving you the benefit of the doubt, and then you write myopic posts like this one.

You, clearly, have not read any detailed analysis as to why the team would finish poorly this year if there was a this year, OK, fine, none of us have read all of the millions of posts on HFboards --- However --- don't you think it might make more sense to ask for a link to this analysis, given that another poster told you it is out there, then to simply assume that poster is a liar and say that no such analysis has been written?
I do want more respectful debate. I didn't try to post anything insulting, I simply stated that the "analysis" out there is mostly based on our one bad season and the assumption that it will be repeated without any actual understanding, or at least recognition, of the other factors involved beyond our actual position in the standings.

You might want to notice that I gave some extensive, if quick, explanations about why we were 3rd worst last season. None of what I stated is refutable. The only thing I did "wrong" was dismiss the idea that there is a lot of analysis out there detailing why we will be a lottery team last year. That is now considered insulting, after the potshots I have absorbed? Please.

I do not read every post on HFBoards. I don't even read close to 20%, I am certain. However, from all of the ones I have read where people trash the Habs' chances of success, the majority blindly use last year as an example without actually recognizing all of the factors that contributed to our poor showing. Keep in mind, it is up to the person on the other side of the debate to provide whatever support he wants for his/her portion of the debate, it is not up to me to go looking for it. I provide support for my position, as I did in the post you quoted, and I can provide further support if I am given an opportunity to continue the discussion. Feel free to offer whatever arguments you wish for your view, and I will happily do my best to refute them.

Ultimately, though, let's be clear: neither of us can predict the future. We are both giving opinions using numbers to try and justify/support our "gut" feelings.

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11-08-2012, 11:38 AM
  #288
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Originally Posted by Habs 4 Life View Post
I'm sure there are teams who are interested in Bourque, buying him out would be a mistake and he hasn't been given a real chance. He is a good player, let's be patient with him we coqui red him while he was suspended half way in the season
Agreed. Gomez has absolutely no value, Bourque could get us a 3rd-5th round pick to a team that needs a boost on offense.

I honestly don't care if the pick is something like 5th round, we've all seen what Timmins can do with those later picks

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Old
11-08-2012, 11:41 AM
  #289
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Do we know what the terms of amnesty buyouts would be?

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Old
11-08-2012, 11:57 AM
  #290
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Do we know what the terms of amnesty buyouts would be?
No, we can't. That's going to be part of the negotiations. But it does sound (where sound = complete speculation by editorial writers who have as much access to the recent negotiating marathon as we do - but more access to at least crossing paths and shouting questions in the general directions of some people associated with it, perhaps) that the amnesty buyout parameters are part of the latest discussions.

Probably it will end up being a combination of things... gradual reduction to 50%, not immediate, some form of "make whole" payments that live outside the cap, and an amnesty buyout window just before the resumption of play.

To speculate further on the amnesty buyout terms... well, the PA isn't going to want guys thrown out on the street with nothing. Probably the bare minimum they'd accept would be conditions similar to the existing 2/3rds buyout (1/3rd for younger players)... just with a new window popping up immediately on signing the CBA and lasting for some few days whilst teams get themselves cap compliant to start a new season and new CBA. Maybe they would fight for a 100% buyout instead, though. But all with the agreement that none of the amnesty buyout money sticks on the cap.

Some owners will not want/cannot afford to pay the buyout money, of course. Some can. They were going to have to pay those players anyway, however. And the poorer/less able teams are presumably also not stuck right up against the salary cap atm, so any lowering of it may not force their hand.

Here's hoping for a solid amnesty buyout option that lets us divest ourselves of Gomez. I can't see them making such immediate changes to the cap - or having no other avenues for cap relief - that we have to look beyond that and consider any others for buyout in addition (e.g. Bourque, Kaberle).

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11-08-2012, 12:10 PM
  #291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
On another note, if there is an amnesty buyout, it might be worth considering buying out Bourque and not Gomez.

Gomez is owed 7.36 million/year through 2013-2014.
Bourque is owed 3.33 million/year through 2015-2016.

Bourque is owed slightly more money (though less once you subtract replacement costs), however, his contract is longer-term, and it extends into the period when we need to be good.
Wrong, bourque can still be a servicable winger with size for us, Gomez can not.

It would be insanely foolish to pass up this golden chance to be rid of him Scott free when dealing with bourques case can be done at a later time

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11-08-2012, 12:27 PM
  #292
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Wrong, bourque can still be a servicable winger with size for us, Gomez can not.

It would be insanely foolish to pass up this golden chance to be rid of him Scott free when dealing with bourques case can be done at a later time
I think the bottom line is that teams will have to project their payrolls and project the cap, and factor everything in together once the terms of the new CBA and the details of any amnesty buyout provisions are known. For example, we will have to factor in Subban's new deal, look at any likely raises to other players in the next few years, know whether bonus money on a big ELC like Galchenyuk would be on or off the cap, and then make some reasonable guesstimate of what the cap is likely to be for the next few years. Having Pacioretty, Price, Gorges, and by then Subban locked up for longer terms should make it a reasonably easy process.

But then once it all comes together, if there is still any shortfall or risk, and if the amnesty buyout window did allow for multiple player buyouts... well, of course Bourque and Kaberle would be next on the list to consider. Not because it's impossible that they could contribute to us, or that they aren't candidates for rebound seasons and solid performances. But if the math says cut somebody else in addition to Gomez, then they are the next-likeliest, by virtue of what they did show last season and the size of their deals.

I don't expect it will come to that - owners won't make it that hard on themselves and PA won't want to see that many players cut loose - so there will be other cushions in place to get around any cap reductions - we're probably sitting pretty by having Gomez as an "easy" option to trimming $7M. But in the unlikely event it did come to that, then of course we have to start looking at Kaberle and Bourque next up.

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11-08-2012, 12:44 PM
  #293
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Players like Lecavalier are the ones I'm curious to see how teams like Tampa are going to deal with him.

It makes no sense to buy him out but on the other hand keeping him handicaps Tampa for 5 or 6 more years or until he retires.


------------

I'm another that would buy out Bourque before Gomez, just my preference. Both would be my first choice.

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Old
11-08-2012, 12:46 PM
  #294
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Incorrect. There is not a "lot of analysis" there are gut feelings based on a single poor year. Last year was a complete cluster****, it was FUBAR in every sense of the term due to multiple injuries, coaching stupidity, management idiocy, etc...

To do a proper analysis, one should look beyond a single season. For example: Montreal made the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 seasons. We made the Conference quarterfinals twice, Conference semi-finals once, and the Conference finals once. That shows this is a competitive team that is capable of making, and even succeeding to some degree, in the playoffs. For a further analysis, we can look at one of our greatest areas of weakness last year: a lack of size and toughness. Prust and Armstrong are two players brought in to help address those weaknesses. Bouillon was alsoi brought in to strengthen the defensive strength and toughness. We also needed better support for Plekanec. Ideally Bourque and Gionta will help considerably in that regard. We are not even considering the rookies who could very well have an impact this season.

Other problems have also been addressed: we have a new GM who seems to have an eye for talent and is putting his stamp on this team. We have an entire new coaching staff and Head Coach who will, at the very least, bring a different atmosphere to a locker room that was lost by the coaching staff last season.

Now, there are no guarantees we will make the playoffs. However, if we do an actual analysis of our team that looks at a lot more than our record from last year, we can see the possibilities for success being higher than a small and simplified analysis of our one year record would indicate.
Nah , not really. like someone mentioned, roster changes account for alot, especially 5 years ago. Using data from 5 years ago will give you almost nothing, when you consider our roster change, 29 other teams that changed their roster, rule changes, coaching changes, management changes, etc. What you get from 5 years + ago, is more of general long term patterns and trends.

Vegas Odds would be best example off in-depth analysis, where their odds usually reflect last seasons standings + Playoff data + off season movement. Probability wise. Which is all we have anyways.

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11-08-2012, 01:06 PM
  #295
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Originally Posted by Frozenice View Post
Players like Lecavalier are the ones I'm curious to see how teams like Tampa are going to deal with him.

It makes no sense to buy him out but on the other hand keeping him handicaps Tampa for 5 or 6 more years or until he retires.


------------

I'm another that would buy out Bourque before Gomez, just my preference. Both would be my first choice.
Well it would make sense because it releases them from a horrible contract, but that would be a hefty price to buy out ; Lecavalier has 45M remaining on his contract starting next year. Not exactly a cheap buy out.
Guy like Gomez however, has a big cap, with one remaining year at 4.5M, easy target.

But I'm not convinced this amnesty buyout will work. Seems to only favor rich owners.

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11-08-2012, 01:10 PM
  #296
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It's not so much whether or not it makes sense to buy him. It would because it releases them from a horrible contract, but that would be a hefty price to buy out ; Lecavalier has 45M remaining on his contract starting next year. Not exactly a cheap buy out.
Guy like Gomez however, has a big cap, with one remaining year at 4.5M, easy target.

But I'm not convinced this amnesty buyout will work. Seems to only favor rich owners.
If the rich owners are the ones targeted for footing the bill of teams who shouldn't be in this league then you can bet that it won't matter whether the buyout clause only favours them. This is what the players want? The money we spend on the habs used to foot the bill of the likes of Shea Weber in Nashville. It personally disgusts me, but it seems the players' ranting has been getting into some people's heads.

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11-08-2012, 01:22 PM
  #297
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If the rich owners are the ones targeted for footing the bill of teams who shouldn't be in this league then you can bet that it won't matter whether the buyout clause only favours them. This is what the players want? The money we spend on the habs used to foot the bill of the likes of Shea Weber in Nashville. It personally disgusts me, but it seems the players' ranting has been getting into some people's heads.
I still believe there is only one real solution and that's a salary rollback.

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11-08-2012, 01:30 PM
  #298
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I still believe there is only one real solution and that's a salary rollback.
I agree, except the players are hell bent on not accepting it regardless of the terms surrounding it. What's going to happen is either another season lost or another lockout after the next CBA is over or both.

And.. again.. You'll have a bunch of players ranting about not being the ones having to sacrifice anything, while at the same time having their agents drive up the market on teams that shouldn't be in the league. Yay vicious circle!

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11-08-2012, 01:35 PM
  #299
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Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
Well it would make sense because it releases them from a horrible contract, but that would be a hefty price to buy out ; Lecavalier has 45M remaining on his contract starting next year. Not exactly a cheap buy out.
Guy like Gomez however, has a big cap, with one remaining year at 4.5M, easy target.

But I'm not convinced this amnesty buyout will work. Seems to only favor rich owners.
The problem seems to be making the players whole on their contracts and amnesty buyouts make it easier for that to happen because it makes some players whole by buying them out while still leaving cap space and cap money for the rest of the players.

Having the rich owners throw some more coin in the pot was one thing Fehr wanted to see, so I don't think either side has an issue with buyouts happening.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vokiel View Post
If the rich owners are the ones targeted for footing the bill of teams who shouldn't be in this league then you can bet that it won't matter whether the buyout clause only favours them. This is what the players want? The money we spend on the habs used to foot the bill of the likes of Shea Weber in Nashville. It personally disgusts me, but it seems the players' ranting has been getting into some people's heads.
Nashville matched Philadelphia's offer, Nashville has been a responsible team in terms of spending money wisely and responsibly.

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11-08-2012, 01:39 PM
  #300
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Assuming a 55-60 game schedule, how would you guys feel about all games being played within the conference? That would help save some travel money.

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