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If this season resumes, do you you think we have a better shot at playoffs?

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Old
11-08-2012, 09:04 AM
  #26
ULF_55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hurt View Post
Well Florida missed them for like 10 years in a row, I think. Couple of years away from that milestone for our boys.
See we have to reach to find a team more inept at missing the playoffs, and that team is in Florida!

Absolutely, playoffs this year.

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11-08-2012, 09:06 AM
  #27
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The current construction of the team, and seeing the other teams in the conference, I have a hard time convincing myself this team could make it in. But with solid goaltending and a sound defensive game, this team could be alright.

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11-08-2012, 09:11 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ULF_55 View Post
See we have to reach to find a team more inept at missing the playoffs, and that team is in Florida!

Absolutely, playoffs this year.
I hope so. Shortened season will mean less of a chance to collapse on ourselves.

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11-08-2012, 09:16 AM
  #29
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We have absolutely no chance. Clear out the deadwood after this year, get some youth in the lineup, and we'll talk.

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11-08-2012, 09:30 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Darylman View Post
We have absolutely no chance. Clear out the deadwood after this year, get some youth in the lineup, and we'll talk.
The Toronto Maple Leafs were the second youngest team in the NHL last year.

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Old
11-08-2012, 09:30 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iArts View Post
I mean if the season is much shorter than regular. Leafs usually do well for a while until collapsing eventually. I'm curious what you guys think.
The cream always rises to the top eventually, but a shortened season creates greater parity among all teams with less games to create separation from the top to the bottom of the standings..

So that increases the odds of the playoffs for our Leafs. However the pitfall is that any smaller sustained losing streak(s) in a shortened season also dooms a teams playoff aspirations with less game to make up the difference thereafter.

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11-08-2012, 09:37 AM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hurt View Post
Well Florida missed them for like 10 years in a row, I think. Couple of years away from that milestone for our boys.
That also spread across CBAs where prior to the Cap being instituted small market teams could not compete equally with big spending teams where the salary gap was $25-30 mil in talent level and player salary expenses.

So the losing streaks pre Cap World have an * to help explain the losing in some markets. Its the reason we had the last lockout to bring parity & fairness of leveling the playing field financially.

Only 1 NHL team has failed to make the NHL playoffs in a Cap World, and unfortunately we all know who that is. A shorten season does increase the odds however that this streak will be ended.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hurt View Post
The Toronto Maple Leafs were the second youngest team in the NHL last year.
The LA Kings were the 4th youngest team on average age and won the Stanley Cup, with only a mere .3 separation from 26.5 to 26.2 (Leafs) team last season. Age is only a number its the talent level of the players in question that make the difference.

Colorado Avalanche 25.5
Toronto Maple Leafs 26.2
Buffalo Sabres 26.4
Los Angeles Kings 26.5
Nashville Predators 26.6


Last edited by Mess: 11-08-2012 at 10:15 AM.
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Old
11-08-2012, 12:01 PM
  #33
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i think a shorter season makes our chances worse unless we are able to get really hot off the bat which is doubtful. a shorter season would favour older teams like san jose i would think

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11-08-2012, 01:54 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by gabeliscious View Post
i think a shorter season makes our chances worse unless we are able to get really hot off the bat which is doubtful. a shorter season would favour older teams like san jose i would think
If they could get Kessel's line playing, they could come into camp with 2 lines ready to play.


MacArthur-Grabrovski-Kulemin - playing.

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11-08-2012, 02:37 PM
  #35
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I think a short season would definitely improve our chances. Not because we "burn out" or anything like that, simply because of variance. The longer a season is, the more likely it is that the best teams rise to the top. Which means that the shorter a season is, the more likely it is that weaker teams can get lucky/go on hot streaks and squeak in. I don't think we're a top 8 team in the east, but with a short enough season we might be able to sneak into the playoffs with some good luck, especially if we do indeed trade for Luongo.


Last edited by ponder: 11-08-2012 at 02:50 PM.
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11-08-2012, 02:45 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
The LA Kings were the 4th youngest team on average age and won the Stanley Cup, with only a mere .3 separation from 26.5 to 26.2 (Leafs) team last season. Age is only a number its the talent level of the players in question that make the difference.

Colorado Avalanche 25.5
Toronto Maple Leafs 26.2
Buffalo Sabres 26.4
Los Angeles Kings 26.5
Nashville Predators 26.6
The "average age" thing is pretty deceptive in general. It's not like the Leafs have a tonne of teenage stars who we can expect to improve massively (like Edmonton), we have a bunch of guys who are around 24-28, but very few truly old players, and honestly 24-28 are the prime years for a lot of guys. The only players who are expected to make the team next year who are currently under 24 are JVR (23) and Gardiner (22), plus maybe Kadri (22) if he makes it. We should be able to count a bit on internal development, but not a lot. Long term we have some great d prospects (Rielly, Percy, Finn, Blacker), but they likely will not be making the team this year.

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11-08-2012, 02:55 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ULF_55 View Post
If they could get Kessel's line playing, they could come into camp with 2 lines ready to play.


MacArthur-Grabrovski-Kulemin - playing.
where is jvr going? 3rd line?

i think it is going to take more then our top 6 putting up points. we are going to have to be at a minimum middle of the pack in special teams - especially our pk which has been awful the past several seasons. we also need to find some sort of version of team defense and hope to get some sort of goaltending. imo getting reimer/ scrivens going > then getting kessel going (in terms of big picture)

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Old
11-08-2012, 03:06 PM
  #38
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Lupul-Bozak-Kessel
JVR-Grabo-Kulemin
Macarthur-Mcclement-Frattin
Komarov-Steckel-Brown
Connolly, Lombardi

Gunnarson-Phaneuf
Gardiner-Komisarek/Franson
Liles-Komisarek/Franson/Holzer

Reimer
Scrivens

In my eyes, this team is only slightly better than last seasons team. I think JVR could turn out to be a huge addition to the second line if he gels with Kulemin however. They're both big bodies with skill, I can see them cycling the puck really well together and Grabovski seems like a nice fit between them. If there is no epic collapse, I can see this team sneaking into the playoffs. I do think Burke might make a significant move for a goalie after the lock-out ends however, and if he does our chances of making the playoffs will be much better.

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Old
11-08-2012, 03:12 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
The LA Kings were the 4th youngest team on average age and won the Stanley Cup, with only a mere .3 separation from 26.5 to 26.2 (Leafs) team last season. Age is only a number its the talent level of the players in question that make the difference.

Colorado Avalanche 25.5
Toronto Maple Leafs 26.2
Buffalo Sabres 26.4
Los Angeles Kings 26.5
Nashville Predators 26.6
Not sure what your point is... The guy said that the Leafs need to get some youth in their lineup, Hurt was merely responding by saying that we have a relatively young team, so it's not quite that simple.

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Old
11-08-2012, 03:26 PM
  #40
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this team has proven over the last 3 years they cannot put a full 82 game schedule together and usually have a 10 game stretch where we win 1 game or so, so yea a condensed say 60-65 game sched might help us miss that big slump.

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Old
11-08-2012, 03:47 PM
  #41
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I dont see it. If the season were 10 games long...the Leafs would have neither a better or worse shot at the playoffs because every other team would also have 10 games to play. It would be an even playing field and it would just mean that every game would have importance...and teams would be playing at a much higher level knowing that each loss would be huge. The games more intense. All in all. 82 games or 10 games...the chances are the same.

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11-08-2012, 03:50 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
That also spread across CBAs where prior to the Cap being instituted small market teams could not compete equally with big spending teams where the salary gap was $25-30 mil in talent level and player salary expenses.

So the losing streaks pre Cap World have an * to help explain the losing in some markets. Its the reason we had the last lockout to bring parity & fairness of leveling the playing field financially.

Only 1 NHL team has failed to make the NHL playoffs in a Cap World, and unfortunately we all know who that is. A shorten season does increase the odds however that this streak will be ended.



The LA Kings were the 4th youngest team on average age and won the Stanley Cup, with only a mere .3 separation from 26.5 to 26.2 (Leafs) team last season. Age is only a number its the talent level of the players in question that make the difference.

Colorado Avalanche 25.5
Toronto Maple Leafs 26.2
Buffalo Sabres 26.4
Los Angeles Kings 26.5
Nashville Predators 26.6
Obviously Mess. Anyone know the average age of the Pat Quinn teams that racked up 100 point seasons and Final 4 finshes? Was a veteran squad who would have kicked the currents rosters' a$$ all the way up Bay Street.

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Old
11-08-2012, 03:54 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by hockeyfanz View Post
I dont see it. If the season were 10 games long...the Leafs would have neither a better or worse shot at the playoffs because every other team would also have 10 games to play. It would be an even playing field and it would just mean that every game would have importance...and teams would be playing at a much higher level knowing that each loss would be huge. The games more intense. All in all. 82 games or 10 games...the chances are the same.
You're contradicting yourself.

You're right though a condensed schedule would be much tougher.

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11-08-2012, 05:50 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by hockeyfanz View Post
I dont see it. If the season were 10 games long...the Leafs would have neither a better or worse shot at the playoffs because every other team would also have 10 games to play. It would be an even playing field and it would just mean that every game would have importance...and teams would be playing at a much higher level knowing that each loss would be huge. The games more intense. All in all. 82 games or 10 games...the chances are the same.
I disagree, I think you overrate the impact of effort (both teams will be trying harder, it more or less cancels out), and underrate the effect of variance.

Let's say we have a below average team, with a 0.4 probability to win any given game (i.e. 40% chance), ignoring complicating factors like ties/OT/whatever:
- In a 1 game season the probability of us winning >50% of our games is 0.4 (40%)
- In a 10 game season the probability of us winning >50% of our games is 0.17 (17%)
- In a 20 games season the probability of us winning >50% of our games is 0.13 (13%)
- In a 40 game season the probability of us winning >50% of our games is 0.07 (7%)
- In an 80 game season the probability of us winning >50% of our games is 0.03 (3%)

If you're a weaker team, a short season means you still have a decent chance of putting together a good record, but the longer the season, the less probable it is that you'll be able to "beat the odds."

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11-08-2012, 08:14 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by exporta View Post
We'll probably make it, then haters will say the Leafs only made it because of a shorter season.
Even if the Leafs did make the Playoffs during a shorten season, it would be the same for the other 15 teams. However after not seeing them in the Playoffs since 2004 I don't care how it happens, I just want to see them make it.

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11-09-2012, 02:21 AM
  #46
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Honestly, I hope so. I'm somewhat tired of the Habs/Bruins rivalry. We need to kick start Habs/Leafs really hating each other again, if for no other reason than it makes damn good hockey. Although, you could probably spin some good rivalries out of Leafs/Bruins and of course, Leafs/Sens.

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11-09-2012, 11:53 AM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyfanz View Post
I dont see it. If the season were 10 games long...the Leafs would have neither a better or worse shot at the playoffs because every other team would also have 10 games to play. It would be an even playing field and it would just mean that every game would have importance...and teams would be playing at a much higher level knowing that each loss would be huge. The games more intense. All in all. 82 games or 10 games...the chances are the same.
Counterpoint:

Last season after 41 games (1/2 a season) the LA Kings had fired their coach and were sitting outside the playoffs.

After 82 games the Kings had clawed their way back into the playoffs securing the 8th and final spot in the Western Conference.

LA Kings win the 2011-12 Stanley Cup, however after 1/2 a season they wouldn't even have qualified to make the playoffs. Thus making the results in the shortened season vastly different then those over the course of a full season.

We have seen in many years a strong 1/2 season by the Leafs and poor 1/2 season either at the beginning or the end.. Neither was a true reflection that was not fully seen until all 82 games where played. ie. a different Stanley Cup winner. Last year at the midpoint the Leafs were in playoff spot and after 82 games they ended up 5th from the bottom of the league, implying that the results of a shortened season varied from those of a full one.

Perhaps the odds ie. 1 of 8 teams make the playoffs in each conference therefore the length of games does not change the percentages, however as I have shown with the LA example the final results can vary depending on length of season.

The general rule applies in many areas where the smaller the data set /sample size the more inaccurate the results.

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11-09-2012, 12:14 PM
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Counterpoint:

Last season after 41 games (1/2 a season) the LA Kings had fired their coach and were sitting outside the playoffs.

After 82 games the Kings had clawed their way back into the playoffs securing the 8th and final spot in the Western Conference.

LA Kings win the 2011-12 Stanley Cup, however after 1/2 a season they wouldn't even have qualified to make the playoffs. Thus making the results in the shortened season vastly different then those over the course of a full season.

We have seen in many years a strong 1/2 season by the Leafs and poor 1/2 season either at the beginning or the end.. Neither was a true reflection that was not fully seen until all 82 games where played. ie. a different Stanley Cup winner. Last year at the midpoint the Leafs were in playoff spot and after 82 games they ended up 5th from the bottom of the league, implying that the results of a shortened season varied from those of a full one.

Perhaps the odds ie. 1 of 8 teams make the playoffs in each conference therefore the length of games does not change the percentages, however as I have shown with the LA example the final results can vary depending on length of season.

The general rule applies in many areas where the smaller the data set /sample size the more inaccurate the results.
I don't really agree with the Kings example....knowing full well there were 82 games to be played. Hey some individuals/teams etc...don't perform until they have to. My point is in a shortened season...every game counts. Less "throwaway" games therefore maybe individuals or even teams pick it up a notch. Russians were famous for doing this in international tourneys...playing rope-a-dope in the round robins...then when it counted turned it on. You think in an 82 game schedule, individuals and teams don't take nights off?

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Old
11-09-2012, 12:15 PM
  #49
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11-09-2012, 01:33 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hurt View Post
I hope so. Shortened season will mean less of a chance to collapse on ourselves.
...or we could start slowly and be out of reach of the playoffs 15 games in. (Knocks on wood)

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