HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Central Division > Winnipeg Jets
Notices

Blame Game: Why was the Jets PK so terrible?

View Poll Results: What were the biggest problems with the Jets PK? Select multiples if you choose.
Ron Hainsey 6 21.43%
Mark Stuart 3 10.71%
Toby Enstrom 3 10.71%
Tanner Glass 13 46.43%
Jim Slater 2 7.14%
Chris Throburn 7 25.00%
Bryan Little 1 3.57%
The System 16 57.14%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 28. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
11-09-2012, 11:05 AM
  #1
truck
HFB Partner
 
truck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,024
vCash: 495
Blame Game: Why was the Jets PK so terrible?

I nerded pretty hard with an analysis piece on AIH. I was trying to see if I could pinpoint the source of the Jets PK problem through the numbers. I came up with my own conclusion, but more importantly I think I laid out the info in a clear way.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2012/...s-penalty-kill

I am curious about what you guys make of it, afterall I am just one fan boy hack with an opinion.

Do the numbers paint a clear picture in your mind? If not, what can we attribute the poor PK to? Can we blame the system, a player or a group of players? What illed the Jets PK?

Whatever it is, fixing the problem will go a long way to improving the team's record.

A 26th ranked PK and the third most PPGA is a lot to overcome for a team that doesn't light the lamp at the rate of the Sens, Hawks or the Flyers.

truck is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 11:09 AM
  #2
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
 
garret9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 9,996
vCash: 50
I'm going to play a guessing game and we'll see if I'm right.
Glass=Thorburn>Stuart>Slater for blame.
Ok now to check if I'm right.


Hmm... not what I quite guessed. I placed some rather long comments on the bottom.

To summarize though:
I think that all 4 of those guys would end up with better results if they played more friendly roles to their calibre (4th line/3rd pairing semi-sheltered defensive minutes and 2nd-to-limited PK instead of 3rd line/2nd pairing shutdown role with 1st PK)
I still think Thorburn and Glass are the weak links as Slater is the only one that seems to do OK on the international stage (aka away from 4th line pylons).


Last edited by garret9: 11-09-2012 at 11:38 AM.
garret9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 11:10 AM
  #3
truck
HFB Partner
 
truck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,024
vCash: 495
Whoops. Jim Stuart should read Jim Slater in that poll.

truck is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 11:20 AM
  #4
truck
HFB Partner
 
truck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,024
vCash: 495
Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I'm going to play a guessing game and we'll see if I'm right.
Glass=Thorburn>Stuart for blame.
Ok now to check if I'm right.
There is no firm answer, but you can definitely see some longstanding weaknesses.

truck is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 11:54 AM
  #5
sipowicz
The Original
 
sipowicz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 5,570
vCash: 1989
Thought Tanner Glass was okay at the start of the season but as the season went along it became apparent that he was useless on the PK, it became hard to watch his inability to clear the puck, still think you need a guy with a little bit of stick handling ability on the PK, probably why both Burmi and Slater are good at it.

sipowicz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 12:17 PM
  #6
truck
HFB Partner
 
truck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,024
vCash: 495
Quote:
Originally Posted by sipowicz View Post
Thought Tanner Glass was okay at the start of the season but as the season went along it became apparent that he was useless on the PK, it became hard to watch his inability to clear the puck, still think you need a guy with a little bit of stick handling ability on the PK, probably why both Burmi and Slater are good at it.
Is Slater good at it? He has allowed both shots and goals at extremely high rates every year of his career.

The numbers actually point to him as the single biggest problem.

truck is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 12:28 PM
  #7
truck
HFB Partner
 
truck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,024
vCash: 495
Additional insight for those that say it was the system:

Burmi, Antropov, Ladd, Mittens, Oduya and Bogosian's efficiency would have put the team at least in the middle of the pack league wide. That leads me to believe they were either super elite in a bad system, or the rest of em were just plain awful in an OK system.

truck is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 12:29 PM
  #8
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
 
garret9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 9,996
vCash: 50
hmmm wonder why Pavs isn't an option. Although this isn't looking at workload, merely efficiency it's really interesting looking at who has the worst GA/60 on the PK for goalies (only looking at goalies with 40+ gp).

Worst 10
30) Steve Mason - 11.13
29) Dwayne Roloson - 9.18
28) Corey Crawford - 8.97
27) Anti Niemi - 7.27
26) Jose Theodore - 7.22
25) Ondrej Pavelec - 7.13
24) Devan Dubnyk - 7.07
23) Roberto Luongo - 6.94
22) Ryan Miller - 6.84
21) Niklas Backstrom - 6.75

Best 10
1) Carey Price - 3.82
2) Henrik Lundqvist - 3.96
3) Nikolai Khabibulin - 4.44
4) Jonathan Quick - 4.63
5) James Howard - 5.14
6) Mikka Kiprusoff - 5.16
7) Jonas Gustavsson - 5.30
8) Kari Lehtonen - 5.31
9) Mike Smith - 5.49
10) Evgeni Nabokov - 5.55

There are some goalies who fall where you'd expect but some fall in strange places. Makes me think that a quality PK is comprised of a combo of (surprise surprise) system, quality of the forwards, quality of the goalie.

garret9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 12:37 PM
  #9
truck
HFB Partner
 
truck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,024
vCash: 495
Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
hmmm wonder why Pavs isn't an option. Although this isn't looking at workload, merely efficiency it's really interesting looking at who has the worst GA/60 on the PK for goalies (only looking at goalies with 40+ gp).

Worst 10
30) Steve Mason - 11.13
29) Dwayne Roloson - 9.18
28) Corey Crawford - 8.97
27) Anti Niemi - 7.27
26) Jose Theodore - 7.22
25) Ondrej Pavelec - 7.13
24) Devan Dubnyk - 7.07
23) Roberto Luongo - 6.94
22) Ryan Miller - 6.84
21) Niklas Backstrom - 6.75

Best 10
1) Carey Price - 3.82
2) Henrik Lundqvist - 3.96
3) Nikolai Khabibulin - 4.44
4) Jonathan Quick - 4.63
5) James Howard - 5.14
6) Mikka Kiprusoff - 5.16
7) Jonas Gustavsson - 5.30
8) Kari Lehtonen - 5.31
9) Mike Smith - 5.49
10) Evgeni Nabokov - 5.55

There are some goalies who fall where you'd expect but some fall in strange places. Makes me think that a quality PK is comprised of a combo of (surprise surprise) system, quality of the forwards, quality of the goalie.
Pav could be part of the problem and a better save percentage would help, but...

I was trying to isolate which skaters had the greatest impact on the shots / goals against. I mean it is possible that Pav played worse with this group in front of him, than he did with Burmi, Antro, Ladd, etc., but I doubt that is the case... especially since most of them are right along their career marks.

truck is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 12:47 PM
  #10
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
 
garret9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 9,996
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Pav could be part of the problem and a better save percentage would help, but...

I was trying to isolate which skaters had the greatest impact on the shots / goals against. I mean it is possible that Pav played worse with this group in front of him, than he did with Burmi, Antro, Ladd, etc., but I doubt that is the case... especially since most of them are right along their career marks.
True dat

What interests me is that Pav and Price.
Similar ages and similar time coming into the league.
Similarly on lower teams in the league.
Similar 5v5 SA/60... but difference elsewhere...

garret9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 01:29 PM
  #11
Bob E
Registered User
 
Bob E's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Winnerpeg
Posts: 3,027
vCash: 500
Imo, the Jets asked too much from GST last year. On PK, playing a checking 3rd line role. slater might be able to handle those minutes and responsibilities but the others couldn't. An improved 3rd line would help our pk as well.

Bob E is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 01:39 PM
  #12
truck
HFB Partner
 
truck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,024
vCash: 495
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
Imo, the Jets asked too much from GST last year. On PK, playing a checking 3rd line role. slater might be able to handle those minutes and responsibilities but the others couldn't. An improved 3rd line would help our pk as well.
I agree with all that.

What do you make of Slater's struggles in previous years?

truck is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 01:59 PM
  #13
Bob E
Registered User
 
Bob E's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Winnerpeg
Posts: 3,027
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
I agree with all that.

What do you make of Slater's struggles in previous years?
He's a tough one.

His concussion set him back 2 yrs ago.

Before that, it may have been their system or coaching, not sure. He brings the grit and desire needed, but seems to lack the defensive awareness, to completely excel at the role. But he seemed to improve as the year went on, in many ways, so that's why I'm hopeful he might be able to handle the role.

Glass had no gap awareness, the idea of disrupting passing lanes seemed foreign to him, and was unable to ice the puck in key times during a pk, I have more confidence Slater, Burmi, Little, Ladd and others can do that - at forward.

Bob E is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 02:43 PM
  #14
Gump Hasek
Spleen Merchant
 
Gump Hasek's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: 222 Tudor Terrace
Posts: 7,233
vCash: 1250
Last year is old news. The Jets pk will likely be improved this year simply due the addition of Jokinen... and with additional input from Perry Pearn as well.

Gump Hasek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 03:18 PM
  #15
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
 
garret9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 9,996
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
I agree with all that.

What do you make of Slater's struggles in previous years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
He's a tough one.

His concussion set him back 2 yrs ago.

Before that, it may have been their system or coaching, not sure. He brings the grit and desire needed, but seems to lack the defensive awareness, to completely excel at the role. But he seemed to improve as the year went on, in many ways, so that's why I'm hopeful he might be able to handle the role.

Glass had no gap awareness, the idea of disrupting passing lanes seemed foreign to him, and was unable to ice the puck in key times during a pk, I have more confidence Slater, Burmi, Little, Ladd and others can do that - at forward.
Ya I still think Slater can be a solid-to-above-average 4th liner and that he wasn't the weak link.
The evidence still points to me that way... ya he shouldn't of been playing a RelQoC of 0.900 and he's not a strong guy for a 28.5% OZS.

His play in international tournaments and his ability to have decent 5v5 p/60 with such hard minutes makes me think that he was being pulled down by being with Glass and Thorburn and either one of them would of been worse if they had been used as similarly and consistent.

I hope that the new third line takes the bulk of the former GST weight but the 4th line still takes some of the easier defensive minutes (like 3rd/4th liners in our defensive zone). THat way we can push some more OZS to Kane/Joki/??? and Ladd/Little/??? line while not crushing the third line.

garret9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 03:51 PM
  #16
truck
HFB Partner
 
truck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,024
vCash: 495
Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Ya I still think Slater can be a solid-to-above-average 4th liner and that he wasn't the weak link.
The evidence still points to me that way... ya he shouldn't of been playing a RelQoC of 0.900 and he's not a strong guy for a 28.5% OZS.

His play in international tournaments and his ability to have decent 5v5 p/60 with such hard minutes makes me think that he was being pulled down by being with Glass and Thorburn and either one of them would of been worse if they had been used as similarly and consistent.

I hope that the new third line takes the bulk of the former GST weight but the 4th line still takes some of the easier defensive minutes (like 3rd/4th liners in our defensive zone). THat way we can push some more OZS to Kane/Joki/??? and Ladd/Little/??? line while not crushing the third line.
Nothing against slater. I like him at 5 on 5, especially if you give him quality linemates. He has proven he can score at a 3rd line rate. If you give him a couple wingers with offensive ability (Antro / Poni) I believe he could be an OK #3C.

I just don't see him as a "shutdown" defensive player and he has never shown the ability to dominate on PK. You put him in there for lack of better options.

truck is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 05:23 PM
  #17
YWGinYYZ
Global Moderator
 
YWGinYYZ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 11,863
vCash: 200
Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Nothing against slater. I like him at 5 on 5, especially if you give him quality linemates. He has proven he can score at a 3rd line rate. If you give him a couple wingers with offensive ability (Antro / Poni) I believe he could be an OK #3C.

I just don't see him as a "shutdown" defensive player and he has never shown the ability to dominate on PK. You put him in there for lack of better options.
I wonder why that is - he skates well, handles the puck well, etc. Based on his play when he has better linemates, he's a competent player - 3rd to 4th line tweener, I would say. You'd think that he'd have the tools to be decent on the PK.

YWGinYYZ is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 06:49 PM
  #18
puck stoppa
Registered User
 
puck stoppa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,739
vCash: 500
Yes, your goaltender should be your best penalty killer but I think the lathargic PK system is to blame they sure sit back, and most importantly, we usually lost the faceoff in our own zone to kickoff the PK which is the biggest problem. (Little was bad for this and he was one of our best FO guys)

puck stoppa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 08:22 PM
  #19
sully1410
Registered User
 
sully1410's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Turner Valley, Alta.
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,051
vCash: 50
I said glass because Blame Canada wasn't an option.

sully1410 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 08:23 PM
  #20
PierreMcGuire*
How dissapointing
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Delta, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,750
vCash: 500
Blame Tanner Glass.

PierreMcGuire* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 08:25 PM
  #21
cheswick
Non-registered User
 
cheswick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Peg City
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,895
vCash: 574
Pavelec should be a choice

cheswick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 09:09 PM
  #22
sully1410
Registered User
 
sully1410's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Turner Valley, Alta.
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,051
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by cheswick View Post
Pavelec should be a choice
So should Buff's dip.

sully1410 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 10:06 PM
  #23
truck
HFB Partner
 
truck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,024
vCash: 495
Quote:
Originally Posted by cheswick View Post
Pavelec should be a choice
He may have been a big part of the problem, but the model I used here was designed to find out which skaters helped him out the most.

While Burmi was out there the opponents generated 38 shots and 5 and a half goals per 60 minutes.

When Slater was out there oppoents generated 40 some shots and 10+ goals per 60.

That is a huge difference.

truck is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 10:51 PM
  #24
truck
HFB Partner
 
truck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,024
vCash: 495
Quote:
Originally Posted by 23 17 23 View Post
Blame Tanner Glass.
Everybody is blaming Tanner, what happens if things don't get better without him?

truck is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
11-09-2012, 10:56 PM
  #25
truck
HFB Partner
 
truck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,024
vCash: 495
If the issues are system related I believe Perry Pearn will help the cause.

Poni and a little more PK time for Wheeler could help too. Not so sure about the back end.

truck is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:43 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.