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Projected Points vs. Actual Points

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11-09-2012, 10:51 AM
  #1
Psycho Dad
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Projected Points vs. Actual Points

Opinions wanted: Are Projected Points artificially inflated, or is my team just underachieving? Should people just ignore Projected Points in favor of their gut feeling?

I seem to leave way too many points on the bench every week. Last week was the tipping point, as I started Lynch and McCoy instead of the 51.2 point Doug freaking Martin.

Week 1 - 113.39 vs. 103.06 (6 point W)
Week 2 - 128.85 vs. 123.60 (4 point L)
Week 3 - 136.23 vs. 91.12 (13 point W)
Week 4 - 123.53 vs. 147.48 (19 point W)
Week 5 - 111.67 vs. 127.04 (20 point W)
Week 6 - 129.48 vs. 107.00 (5 point L)
Week 7 - 119.11 vs. 117.56 (6 point L)
Week 8 - 136.30 vs. 121.96 (56 point W)
Week 9 - 130.73 vs. 112.84 (11 point W)

How does Projected Points influence how you decide your starters? Do you go with the hot hand approach?

I'm thinking of starting Martin (hot hand) and Ridley (NE destroys BUF) over my better two RBs (Lynch vs. NYJ and McCoy vs. DAL) this week. Good idea? Bad idea?

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11-09-2012, 11:08 AM
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TML g u n n e R s*
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my question is.. how the **** do you have those 4 running backs lmao

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11-09-2012, 12:15 PM
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Psycho Dad
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Lynch, Ridley and Martin were late round picks.

My WRs are Megatron, Cruz, Austin, James Jones and Torrey Smith.

Just a lot of players that the other owners let slip through.

Makes for a difficult time trying to set the weekly roster, though.

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11-09-2012, 12:43 PM
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guessing 6 or 8 man league

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11-09-2012, 05:00 PM
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BGDDYKWL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psycho Dad View Post
How does Projected Points influence how you decide your starters? Do you go with the hot hand approach?
I've found the projected points are heavily inflated on CBS this year (Yahoo seems to be more accurate). Not exactly sure why. It seems their projections are always what a guy will score if he has a really good week. Probably average around 20 more than reality (for the entire starting lineup). Do projected points influence my decisions? Little. It's always nice seeing a higher projection next to a guy's name, but ultimately I'm always going to start the guy I think is better. Perfect example, CBS has Torrey Smith projected for 15 this week, and 12 for Dez, but I'll start Dez all day long over Torrey.

Quote:
I'm thinking of starting Martin (hot hand) and Ridley (NE destroys BUF) over my better two RBs (Lynch vs. NYJ and McCoy vs. DAL) this week. Good idea? Bad idea?
McCoy's been pretty mediocre this year, and Martin's been way too good lately to sit. Question would just be between Lynch, McCoy and Ridley. Lynch is a little banged up, and Ridley has put up a few stinkers, so I'd go McCoy.

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11-09-2012, 05:22 PM
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MJG
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TML g u n n e R s View Post
guessing 6 or 8 man league
I'm leaning towards 6. And lol at Lynch being a late round pick. He was definitely top 20 in every one of my leagues. Doug was top 50 in most drafts. That team doesn't make any sense.

On to the topic. The projected points is just a bunch of people doing their best to predict how a player will do. They base it on trends and match-ups and recent performances. It can be a helpful tool but don't abuse it. Always go with your gut. If you avid football and play enough fantasy football than you should have as good of an idea who to play as the people who get paid to do it. Besides winning is always more gratifying when you made the right decisions. And the worse loss imaginable is listening to an "expert" only to have it backfire and cost you.


Last edited by MJG: 11-09-2012 at 07:10 PM.
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11-09-2012, 06:53 PM
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I play on nfl.com, and I feel that most of the time their projections are based on their own gut feelings rather than any statistical analysis, and it seems way off a lot. Sometimes they'll project AJ Green to get like 50 yards (5 points), whereas some random player can be projected for 100+ yards and 2 TDs (22+ points). I completely ignore projections, and will either ask people on internet forums or go to that start/sit function on fantasypros.com if I need some help on deciding who to start.

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11-09-2012, 07:34 PM
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Aquin001 on Ice
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This team is easily obtainable in a 10 team league through a good draft. Martin and Ridley were both 6th/7th round picks on average. Cruz about 4th, McCoy 1st, and Lynch around 2/3. Megatron doesn't quite fit, but perhaps he was acquired through trade after underperforming. Idk just speculating, but the team isn't that far-fetched.

Now about the question... projections are garbage.

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11-09-2012, 10:41 PM
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Psycho Dad
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aquin001 on Ice View Post
This team is easily obtainable in a 10 team league through a good draft. Martin and Ridley were both 6th/7th round picks on average. Cruz about 4th, McCoy 1st, and Lynch around 2/3. Megatron doesn't quite fit, but perhaps he was acquired through trade after underperforming. Idk just speculating, but the team isn't that far-fetched.

Now about the question... projections are garbage.
Yup, it's a 10 team league, with 2 QB spots, to boot. McCoy at 7, Megatron, Lynch, Cruz, P. Manning, etc..

Thanks for the advice, guys. Greatly appreciated. I'll definitely trust my gut.

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