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Moving up to 5th overall in the 2013 entry draft

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Old
11-10-2012, 09:49 PM
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Moving up to 5th overall in the 2013 entry draft

Lockout has only this to think about, so with only picks, what is the price of moving up to 5th overall?
9th+16th+40-50th?

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11-10-2012, 10:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaffan16 View Post
Lockout has only this to think about, so with only picks, what is the price of moving up to 5th overall?
9th+16th+40-50th?
9th + 16th + 40th to move up 4 spots in a draft where you may get as good of player at 16 as 5? thats crazy. To me any pick in the top 20 you have a great chance of getting an high end prospect.

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11-10-2012, 10:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
9th + 16th + 40th to move up 4 spots in a draft where you may get as good of player at 16 as 5? thats crazy. To me any pick in the top 20 you have a great chance of getting an high end prospect.
I'd say the difference between Barkov and Duclair is 16th+40th.

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11-10-2012, 10:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Leaffan16 View Post
I'd say the difference between Barkov and Duclair is 16th+40th.
maybe because Duclair isnt a top 10 prospect and Barkov is more like top 3,

Look at it this way

Monahan for Lazar + Pulock + Fucule.

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11-10-2012, 10:40 PM
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would you trade Grigorenko/Forsberg + Teravainen/Subban + Finn/Aberg for Galchenyuk/Reilly? I would hope not

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11-10-2012, 11:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
would you trade Grigorenko/Forsberg + Teravainen/Subban + Finn/Aberg for Galchenyuk/Reilly? I would hope not
You are saying best case scenario for the past draft. How about using the real ones, and it's Trouba+Wilson+(avg of 40+50 is 45) Stolarz. I'd take Rielly and I'm guessing most would to, unless they feel Wilson will turn out as Lucic 2.0 as I do not.

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11-10-2012, 11:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
maybe because Duclair isnt a top 10 prospect and Barkov is more like top 3,

Look at it this way

Monahan for Lazar + Pulock + Fucule.
Monahan/Shinkaruk/Barkov will range from 3-5 depending on who's picking. Fucale is a mid 1st, Pulock is 10th, Lazar's about right. Lazar+Erne+Comrie for one of those 3, and I pick the future great 1st liner over the great 2nd line C, good-average 2nd line RW+goalie prospects are to hard to predict.

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11-10-2012, 11:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaffan16 View Post
Monahan/Shinkaruk/Barkov will range from 3-5 depending on who's picking. Fucale is a mid 1st, Pulock is 10th, Lazar's about right. Lazar+Erne+Comrie for one of those 3, and I pick the future great 1st liner over the great 2nd line C, good-average 2nd line RW+goalie prospects are to hard to predict.
you say prospects are hard to predict then say some players are future #1 centers and others are #2 centers. There is no reason a guy like Erne cannot become as good as Monahan for example. The difference between 5 and 15 is not that much in this draft.

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11-11-2012, 12:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
you say prospects are hard to predict then say some players are future #1 centers and others are #2 centers. There is no reason a guy like Erne cannot become as good as Monahan for example. The difference between 5 and 15 is not that much in this draft.
I said goalie prospects as they can bust as easily as RDP as a #1 pick compared to Lundqvist at 200 something.

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11-11-2012, 01:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
would you trade Grigorenko/Forsberg + Teravainen/Subban + Finn/Aberg for Galchenyuk/Reilly? I would hope not
Grigs, Subban and Finn: a 2nd line C with size, a great goalie prospect and a solid D prospect for Gally, honestly, that'd be hard to say no to, mainly because Grigs was chosen way too low.

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11-11-2012, 01:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Leaffan16 View Post
Lockout has only this to think about, so with only picks, what is the price of moving up to 5th overall?
9th+16th+40-50th?
1.* The New York Islanders' first-round pick 2008 - 5th overall (Luke Schennn) went to the Toronto Maple Leafs as the result of a trade on June 20, 2008, that sent the 7th-overall pick (Colin Wilson) and either the 60th-overall pick (Jimmy Hayes) and a third-round pick in 2009 (Anders Nilson)or the 68th-overall pick (Shaw Lalonde) and a second-round pick in 2009 (Mat Clack) in exchange for this pick.

2.* The Toronto Maple Leafs' first-round pick 7th overall (colin wilson) went to the Nashville Predators as the result of a trade on June 20, 2008, that sent the 9th-overall (Josh Bailey) pick and the 40th-overall pick (Aaron ness) to the New York Islanders in exchange for this pick.

So the price to move from 9th to 5th overall was in 2008

a 9th + 40th + 60th + 3th round 2009

so i would say you are overpaying according to a sample of history.


Last edited by palindrom: 11-11-2012 at 02:00 AM.
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11-11-2012, 04:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Mr Forever View Post
mainly because Grigs was chosen way too low.
It seems to be a trend lately to let someone good fall out of the top 5/10. No way should Grigorenko or Fowler been available where they were. Couturier also fell a bit more than he should have. A team like the Oilers should trade their 2014 pick+ for a 10-15 if they can.

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11-11-2012, 08:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaffan16 View Post
Lockout has only this to think about, so with only picks, what is the price of moving up to 5th overall?
9th+16th+40-50th?
I would say something like the 9th, 2 2nds and a 3rd.

So maybe:

9th, 39th, (2014 2nd round pick) and 69th for the 5th.

The top 5 will likely be a player like MacKinnon, Barkov, Jones, Monahan and Lindholm as of now. But there is a lot of good players after that so a trade like this can be worth it for the team giving the 5th pick.

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11-11-2012, 10:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
maybe because Duclair isnt a top 10 prospect and Barkov is more like top 3,

Look at it this way

Monahan for Lazar + Pulock + Fucule.
Top 3? The guys 3-5 are really neck and neck (Drouin, Barkov, Monahan)

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11-11-2012, 10:55 AM
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Pulock should be higher than 10.

I think 9th + 16th would get it done, maybe a 3rd or 4th as a sweetener.

That said, the top 5 are really starting to seperate from the rest of the group, and I think you'd be hard pressed to find a team that'll trade out of the top 5. Don't see any of those picks being moved at this draft unless it's for some pretty serious overpayment.

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11-11-2012, 11:10 AM
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Originally Posted by LatvianTwist View Post
Pulock should be higher than 10.

I think 9th + 16th would get it done, maybe a 3rd or 4th as a sweetener.

That said, the top 5 are really starting to seperate from the rest of the group, and I think you'd be hard pressed to find a team that'll trade out of the top 5. Don't see any of those picks being moved at this draft unless it's for some pretty serious overpayment.
Are the seperating themselves? I bet if you ask 10 scouts who they have in there top 5 majority will have a different player or 2. To me MacKinnon, Jones, and Barkov have seperated themselves.

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11-11-2012, 11:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaffan16 View Post
Lockout has only this to think about, so with only picks, what is the price of moving up to 5th overall?
9th+16th+40-50th?
I don't think you can assume that the Leafs would have the 9th pick even if there wasn't a season at all.

It would most likely be a 30 team lottery with the odds weighted towards how the teams finished last year, but there will be teams moving up and moving down.

If there was no season the Leafs could be picking 5th, if there was a season they could be picking 5th as well. They also could be picking closer to the middle of the pack in either situation.

My bet is that the Leafs don't have the 9th pick one way or another, whether they move up or down is the only question in my mind.

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11-11-2012, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by nmbr_24 View Post
I don't think you can assume that the Leafs would have the 9th pick even if there wasn't a season at all.

It would most likely be a 30 team lottery with the odds weighted towards how the teams finished last year, but there will be teams moving up and moving down.

If there was no season the Leafs could be picking 5th, if there was a season they could be picking 5th as well. They also could be picking closer to the middle of the pack in either situation.

My bet is that the Leafs don't have the 9th pick one way or another, whether they move up or down is the only question in my mind.
Ya I wasn't basing it off of only the Leafs, it was more what is the price of moving to the top 5 in picks

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