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Off-season madness the 2nd: Jays get Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle, Bonifacio

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Old
11-11-2012, 06:56 PM
  #176
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Originally Posted by Woodman19 View Post
Would you trade a good pitcher for Lind, Arencibia, Esobar or Rasmus?

As great as it sounds in real life you can rarely trade your problems for your solutions.
Sad but true , teams wont give up good players, especially pitchers for those guys by themselves.

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11-11-2012, 07:14 PM
  #177
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-Encarnacion has established himself as an elite hitter at 1B/DH.
-Johnson is not the answer
-Lawrie is not the second coming as many expected
-Rasmus showed he can hit this year until Injuries killed his season
-Morrow is a legit top of the rotation arm
-Depth is needed

I think he blows up this year.

.300-25-15 season is on the cards IMO.

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11-11-2012, 07:32 PM
  #178
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I think he blows up this year.

.300-25-15 season is on the cards IMO.
I agree. I think Lawrie breaks out as well. Still see him as a potential elite bat.

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11-11-2012, 07:35 PM
  #179
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I think he blows up this year.

.300-25-15 season is on the cards IMO.
I only see that if we change the philosophical approach at the plate as a team.

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11-11-2012, 08:15 PM
  #180
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What is the difference between the core last winter vs this one? Pretty much the same except for guys AA overrated like Thame,Snider,Lind,Johnson

There was many players to improve the core last year on the FA market but I really think the ownership either was told by AA that we can win with young and cheap or Rogers said no to upgrades.

So I wonder if AA didn't evaluate this talent properly or wanted to tow company line and not spend

There were many players on the open market or guys to be had in deals that could have improved the team last year and nothing was done.

I truly think ownership has heard many calls by media and fans for a winning team and they now realize they need to spend to win. I am not saying they are listening and doing what fans and media are telling them to do but there has to be some idea in ownership that they need to spend to win.

What changed in 1 year about your core they had the same holes last year to fill this year.

AA is a great spinner and makes you want to believe what he says good at PR and spinning hope but MLB is a result driven business win or your out

Time will tell this winter
The difference is they now know what they have and, more importantly, what they do not. They also have three young position prospects that have a year more experience that can be plugged in as necessary.

Should they have added a pitcher and a bat last winter? Yes, I think so. But I also think they have more clarity now, and more valuable assets on the farm to deal now (because they're that much closer to the show), so waiting was not a bad call. Not spin, just sense.

I think it's foolish to suggest that ownership (or management) is listening to fan/media pressure about "spending to win". If they are, they're idiots who don't deserve ther jobs. It's not that they're finally listening, it's that they actually know what they're doing, and are willing to spend when they believe it makes sense to do so.

You're right about one thing, though: his performance this winter will go a long way towards deciding how Anthopolous' stewardship should be viewed.

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11-11-2012, 08:45 PM
  #181
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The difference is they now know what they have and, more importantly, what they do not. They also have three young position prospects that have a year more experience that can be plugged in as necessary.

Should they have added a pitcher and a bat last winter? Yes, I think so. But I also think they have more clarity now, and more valuable assets on the farm to deal now (because they're that much closer to the show), so waiting was not a bad call. Not spin, just sense.

I think it's foolish to suggest that ownership (or management) is listening to fan/media pressure about "spending to win". If they are, they're idiots who don't deserve ther jobs. It's not that they're finally listening, it's that they actually know what they're doing, and are willing to spend when they believe it makes sense to do so.

You're right about one thing, though: his performance this winter will go a long way towards deciding how Anthopolous' stewardship should be viewed.
Would be foolish to suggest that the ownership isn't listening to fans either. Jays fell in the eyes of many fans and they have already been heavily criticized by fans before and like fans, I think they understand that this Jays roster has a chance to actually to do something in a long time but there are also holes that need to be addressed. And while they don't necessarily have to sign a Grienke or Hamilton, they do have to address those holes via FA or trade and for that to happen, the payroll has to go up. They have bought a lot of goodwill in recent years from fans and media and they cannot let that go to waste.

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11-11-2012, 09:04 PM
  #182
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If AA gets the 3-4 pieces the team needs then I will be very optimistic for 2013. The AL east is weaker than it has been in years with Boston, New York, and Tampa all regressing. I would wager that Lawrie, Rasmus, and Romero all have better years than in 2012 since not much worse could have gone wrong for them. Here is a plan that is realistic and if Rogers showed an ounce of ambition towards their team could be acomplished:

1. Trade JPA + Sierra for R. A. Dickey. Re-sign him for the four years he wants.
2. Find a bat for LF/1B/DH. Possible candidates = Hunter, LaRoche, Youkilis, M. Cabrera, Hafner, or Ludwick. There are also many trade options such as Upton or AA could be the silent assasin and get someone nobody expected. After this bat is acquired the other positions can be filled out by Lind (in a platoon), Gose, Cooper, etc.
3. Land one more quality #2 or #3 type pitcher. If they don't spend their money on a bat then there are many options on the free agent market. Sanchez, Jackson, Dempster, Marcum, among others can be found on the free agent market.

In this situation they would only really need to make on big free agent signing, most likely a guy like Jackson, Sanchez, or Dempster, and could fill the rest of the lineup through realistic trades and inhouse depth.

Dickey
Morrow (good luck adjusting to Morrow after facing Dickey)
Sanchez
Romero
Happ

Alvarez

SS Escobar
CF Rasmus (switch him with Lawrie if he has a low OBP again)
RF Bautista
DH EE
1B Youkilis? or Hunter in LF? Melky at LF? Hafner at DH?
3B Lawrie
C d'Arnaud/Mathis
LF Lind/Gose
2B Izturis/Hech

Plus they already have a pretty damn good bull pen.

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11-11-2012, 09:07 PM
  #183
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Would be foolish to suggest that the ownership isn't listening to fans either. Jays fell in the eyes of many fans and they have already been heavily criticized by fans before and like fans, I think they understand that this Jays roster has a chance to actually to do something in a long time but there are also holes that need to be addressed. And while they don't necessarily have to sign a Grienke or Hamilton, they do have to address those holes via FA or trade and for that to happen, the payroll has to go up. They have bought a lot of goodwill in recent years from fans and media and they cannot let that go to waste.
So, again, the point would be that they recognize a need and a window of opportunity, and are acting to respond accordingly. The fact that fans and the media see the same needs and opportunities is, to my mind, a happy coincidence that should have no bearing in the running of the team. Yes, they have to sell tickets - and yes, they have a fair bit of fan goodwill on the line. But if you're bringing in a player - or not bringing one in - it has to be a baseball decision intended to help achieve the team's short- and long-term competitive ambitions, NOT as an attempt to appease fans.

I would much rather have a team that makes good baseball decisions and communicates honestly to the fans, rather than a team that makes shortsighted decisions because the fans are calling for them, and isn't upfront about its expectations for the season.

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11-11-2012, 09:13 PM
  #184
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So, again, the point would be that they recognize a need and a window of opportunity, and are acting to respond accordingly. The fact that fans and the media see the same needs and opportunities is, to my mind, a happy coincidence that should have no bearing in the running of the team. Yes, they have to sell tickets - and yes, they have a fair bit of fan goodwill on the line. But if you're bringing in a player - or not bringing one in - it has to be a baseball decision intended to help achieve the team's short- and long-term competitive ambitions, NOT as an attempt to appease fans.

I would much rather have a team that makes good baseball decisions and communicates honestly to the fans, rather than a team that makes shortsighted decisions because the fans are calling for them, and isn't upfront about its expectations for the season.
Sure, I can agree with that. They need to make smart baseball decisions instead of just trying to appease the fans but you can accomplish both and seeing as AA is running the team, I am confident he can do that.

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11-11-2012, 09:23 PM
  #185
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According to FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi, multiple teams have expressed interest in free agent left-hander Zach Kroenke.

Kroenke, 28, was released by the Diamondbacks this offseason as a six-year minor league free agent. He posted an underwhelming 5.67 ERA at the Triple-A level, but has an average fastball velocity of 91.1 mph. The Mariners, Royals, and Blue Jays have all been listed as possible landing spots.

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/267796049727483904

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11-11-2012, 09:25 PM
  #186
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Sure, I can agree with that. They need to make smart baseball decisions instead of just trying to appease the fans but you can accomplish both and seeing as AA is running the team, I am confident he can do that.
Agreed. It's potentially a very good thing for the team that public sentiment about next steps appears to align so closely with their own stated plan. I'd suggest that's a credit to the approach they've taken with regards to communicating, but either way, it means they can do what they planned to do anyway, and should have the majority of fans and media observers onside.

The particular moves will of course be subject to extensive debate and second-guessing. They may work out, or may not - that's always the gamble in sports (and in life) - but few will fault the team for making them. They do have to hope, however, that enough of the moves (and internal player development) pan out that, barring another injury-devastated season, they're in the conversation next August at least, and ideally next September. As Ryno said, it's a results-driven business.

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11-11-2012, 09:26 PM
  #187
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Originally Posted by Dr.Funk View Post
According to FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi, multiple teams have expressed interest in free agent left-hander Zach Kroenke.

Kroenke, 28, was released by the Diamondbacks this offseason as a six-year minor league free agent. He posted an underwhelming 5.67 ERA at the Triple-A level, but has an average fastball velocity of 91.1 mph. The Mariners, Royals, and Blue Jays have all been listed as possible landing spots.

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/267796049727483904
More depth for Buffalo if true, I'd wager.

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11-11-2012, 10:17 PM
  #188
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Originally Posted by Woodman19 View Post
Would you trade a good pitcher for Lind, Arencibia, Esobar or Rasmus?

As great as it sounds in real life you can rarely trade your problems for your solutions.
What is your definition of a good pitcher? If it's an ace than sure they're not going to get an ace for them but all of those except Lind could return a solid/good pitcher, especially Arencibia who's value is incredibly underrated by people here.

Maybe you guys wouldn't see Arencibia as a major piece, but plenty of teams in the league would. The undervaluing for Arencibia probably stems from the fact we have D'Arnaud (If we didn't I somehow doubt the hate would be as strong), but imagine the value of a young, cheap, very personable catcher with above average defense, solid (And improving) pitch calling and 30 home run power.


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11-11-2012, 10:22 PM
  #189
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What is your definition of a good pitcher? If it's an ace than sure they're not going to get an ace for them but all of those except Lind could return a solid/good pitcher, especially Arencibia who's value is incredibly underrated by people here.

Maybe you guys wouldn't see Arencibia as a major piece, but plenty of teams in the league would.
Well there are not many catchers with 4 years of control who can hit .710 OPS. He does have some value since its such a dead position for offence.

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11-11-2012, 10:30 PM
  #190
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Maybe you guys wouldn't see Arencibia as a major piece, but plenty of teams in the league would. The undervaluing for Arencibia probably stems from the fact we have D'Arnaud (If we didn't I somehow doubt the hate would be as strong), but imagine the value of a young, cheap, very personable catcher with above average defense, solid (And improving) pitch calling and 30 home run power.
In pure baseball terms, Escobar's probably the highest value of the lot, bringing the best value at his position versus the league average. That said, Arencibia's intangibles work in his favour (which nobody is likely to say of Escobar). I don't recall seeing anybody say they hate him - quite the contrary, he's pretty popular on this board, and very popular with the fans in general.

But, as you point out, they have D'Arnaud who projects to be as good or better in every respect, particularly plate discipline which is so important, and such a glaring hole in Arencibia's toolkit. That being the case, Arencibia becomes somebody who can be moved for a good return to address a problem area. That's not hate, just good asset management.

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11-11-2012, 10:32 PM
  #191
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Well there are not many catchers with 4 years of control who can hit .710 OPS. He does have some value since its such a dead position for offence.
This is what I mean about undervaluing. A GM is not going to look at a bunch of potential catchers he could trade for/sign, look at Arencibia's OPS and say "Huh, well I should be able to get him for a 30 year old #5 starter because of that". They're going to look at his age, his personality, his contract status, his power, his steadily improving defense and see him as a valuable catcher who they would look to inquire.

You really don't hear the "bad" things about Arencibia that you do here or on the sabametric sites forums. Even a guy like Dirk Hayhurst (Who gets praised here for being the antithesis to Greg Zaun) has talked about how valuable Arencibia is when he's been on the radio. Seems like everyone who works in baseball thinks he's valuable and if the Jays trade him they'll get a really solid piece back. He's not getting traded for a low end starter, a relief pitcher, an average/mediocre position player with a high OBP. Toronto can probably package him with a good prospect and get a really good player back.

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In pure baseball terms, Escobar's probably the highest value of the lot, bringing the best value at his position versus the league average. That said, Arencibia's intangibles work in his favour (which nobody is likely to say of Escobar). I don't recall seeing anybody say they hate him - quite the contrary, he's pretty popular on this board, and very popular with the fans in general.

But, as you point out, they have D'Arnaud who projects to be as good or better in every respect, particularly plate discipline which is so important, and such a glaring hole in Arencibia's toolkit. That being the case, Arencibia becomes somebody who can be moved for a good return to address a problem area. That's not hate, just good asset management.
I can't agree with this. Arencibia is pretty loathed here. Most people either don't think he's any better than average or are apathetic because we have D'Arnaud.

Fans in general yes he's extremely popular, probably the most popular player with casual fans, especially women/girls. But here? This section is like a sabametric boards, if you don't have good advanced stats chances are more than not you're not well liked.

Also don't think Escobar has as much value as Arencibia. He's the closest but Arencibia probably has more value.

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11-11-2012, 10:36 PM
  #192
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This is what I mean about undervaluing. A GM is not going to look at a bunch of potential catchers he could trade for/sign, look at Arencibia's OPS and say "Huh, well I should be able to get him for a 30 year old #5 starter because of that". They're going to look at his age, his personality, his contract status, his power, his steadily improving defense and see him as a valuable catcher who they would look to inquire.

You really don't hear the "bad" things about Arencibia that you do here or on the sabametric sites forums. Even a guy like Dirk Hayhurst (Who gets praised here for being the antithesis to Greg Zaun) has talked about how valuable Arencibia is when he's been on the radio. Seems like everyone who works in baseball thinks he's valuable and if the Jays trade him they'll get a really solid piece back. He's not getting traded for a low end starter, a relief pitcher, an average/mediocre position player with a high OBP. Toronto can probably package him with a good prospect and get a really good player back.
It really depends on who we are dealing with. I do think we can get a pitcher for Arencibia but its likely not going to be much more then a #3-4 pitcher with 2-3 years of control. I think the best case scenario would be a Jon Niese type pitcher (which we would have to add to) for a pitcher who is controllable through 2016 with 2 club options for 2017 and 2018.

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11-11-2012, 10:44 PM
  #193
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It really depends on who we are dealing with. I do think we can get a pitcher for Arencibia but its likely not going to be much more then a #3-4 pitcher with 2-3 years of control. I think the best case scenario would be a Jon Niese type pitcher (which we would have to add to) for a pitcher who is controllable through 2016 with 2 club options for 2017 and 2018.
Well obviously some teams will have less interest than others but look at teams like the Mets, Rangers, even Tampa Bay. I bet the Jays could get a young #3 pitcher straight up for Arencibia, and if the Jays added a good prospect they could probably pry a #2 from someone.

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11-11-2012, 10:54 PM
  #194
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Well obviously some teams will have less interest than others but look at teams like the Mets, Rangers, even Tampa Bay. I bet the Jays could get a young #3 pitcher straight up for Arencibia, and if the Jays added a good prospect they could probably pry a #2 from someone.
If you can get it done, giddy up!

Maybe I wasn't paying enough attention to the board during the season, as I certainly haven't seen the hate you describe. But I agree there's a pretty wide range on opinions on Arencibia's value on the market. I probably come somewhere in the middle - I agree some seem to lowball his worth, but your take seems a trifle optimistic to me. Either way, though, of him, Escobar, Rasmus and Lind, Arencibia is the one like the most, but also the most moveable (in that he can be replaced internally and there's a strong market for what he brings). So I think he's the guy currently on the roster who is least likely to still be there come spring training.

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11-11-2012, 11:29 PM
  #195
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Well obviously some teams will have less interest than others but look at teams like the Mets, Rangers, even Tampa Bay. I bet the Jays could get a young #3 pitcher straight up for Arencibia, and if the Jays added a good prospect they could probably pry a #2 from someone.
I would look to Cle again to make a bold move. They have talked about moving Santana to 1b to fill the void. There was talk about Asdrual Cabrera on the market. They are looking for offense and with Choo coming up to FA

JPA
Yunel Escobar
Colby Rasmus

for

Asdrual Cabrera
Shin-Soo Choo
prospect/Chris Perez (whom you can flip to another team)


Jays get a guy to play 2B which he has played during his career and a LF whom they would have the option to resign who is a lefty and would fit in perfectly after EE in the 5th hole.

JPA, Rasmus and Yunel are expendable with guys waiting in the wings. This could be a framework with guys on each side adding or subtracting to make it work

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11-12-2012, 12:06 AM
  #196
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I would look to Cle again to make a bold move. They have talked about moving Santana to 1b to fill the void. There was talk about Asdrual Cabrera on the market. They are looking for offense and with Choo coming up to FA

JPA
Yunel Escobar
Colby Rasmus

for

Asdrual Cabrera
Shin-Soo Choo
prospect/Chris Perez (whom you can flip to another team)


Jays get a guy to play 2B which he has played during his career and a LF whom they would have the option to resign who is a lefty and would fit in perfectly after EE in the 5th hole.

JPA, Rasmus and Yunel are expendable with guys waiting in the wings. This could be a framework with guys on each side adding or subtracting to make it work
Two problems jump out to me. They can't be making big position player deals until pitching has been addressed, in case they need one of those assets to complete a deal for a starter.

If we assume for argument's sake that pitching has been dealt with, you're still not going to trade for Choo. Don't get me wrong, he's a very strong player (although he struggles against LHP). But he's only got one year left on his deal, and he's a Scott Boras client, so he's almost certain to walk as a Free Agent. Can't afford to trade valuable assets for a rental.

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11-12-2012, 12:10 AM
  #197
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Asdurbal Cabrera is one of the worst defensive short stops in baseball. He really needs to change positions. Obviously nobody should be expecting a Brendan Ryan, but is even replacement level defense enough to ask for?

Jays becomes a worse team with him at a SS instead of Escobar, IMO. Middle infield defense is underrated. If you have a poor pitching staff, you need your defense to help prevent runs. This is one way of improving your pitching without actually improving your pitching.

The talk about JP being able to bring in a young pitcher sounds good. If it's possible, I am all for it. I don't rate JP at all, and consider him to be one of the worst catchers in baseball, actually. His numbers make that claim based in reality, too.

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11-12-2012, 12:51 AM
  #198
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Well there are not many catchers with 4 years of control who can hit .710 OPS. He does have some value since its such a dead position for offence.
Arencibia's OPS does not accurately account for his terrible OBP, his .304 wOBA does, which ranked as below average among starting catchers with at least 350 PA last season.

Factor in the below average defense, and pitch framing skills and it is quickly apparent that JPA is a replacement level player.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...rs=0&sort=16,d

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11-12-2012, 02:23 AM
  #199
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JPA vs. Salty

Do we expect JP to command more in a trade? Or are their values in line with each other?

Similar power, average, and defence. Salty walks more, and has put up slightly better fWAR, but JP has more control.

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11-12-2012, 03:10 AM
  #200
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Asdurbal Cabrera is one of the worst defensive short stops in baseball. He really needs to change positions. Obviously nobody should be expecting a Brendan Ryan, but is even replacement level defense enough to ask for?

Jays becomes a worse team with him at a SS instead of Escobar, IMO. Middle infield defense is underrated. If you have a poor pitching staff, you need your defense to help prevent runs. This is one way of improving your pitching without actually improving your pitching.
It's funny because he was voted as the second best defensive SS by his peers mid season, and is widely regarded as a great defensive SS by fans and media alike. You are absolutely right though, Cabrera is a bad defensive SS, he makes the flashy plays, but has poor range at SS. Both UZR and DRS rank him well below average.

Moreover, the data is over a significant sample size, and statistically consistent, so there is very little basis for criticism.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Epictetus View Post
The talk about JP being able to bring in a young pitcher sounds good. If it's possible, I am all for it. I don't rate JP at all, and consider him to be one of the worst catchers in baseball, actually. His numbers make that claim based in reality, too.
I could not agree more.

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