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Off-season madness the 2nd: Jays get Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle, Bonifacio

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Old
11-12-2012, 03:48 PM
  #251
Bjindaho
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Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Again leaving out the Sabremetrics you look at his 2011 season and he was 4th among MLB catchers with 23 homers and 5th with 78 rbi's. That is the production that teams would be looking for from a catcher especially one has young as JPA where teams think with more experience he would improve his secondary stats such as OBP, AVG, walks.

He was hitting in the bottom of the order. If he had AB in the middle of the order which teams think he could hit he would be probably tops in HR and RBI's and that is what your looking for offensively from a catcher not speed haha.
I'm not going to comment on RBIs because they are an empty stat.

While JPA ranked 4th in HR, he ranked dead last in AVG among catchers with 350+ PA. He also tied for the most K.

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11-12-2012, 03:52 PM
  #252
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Again using Sabremetrics stats your creating a flaw into a players game that really with a complex math formula most managers, players, GM, casual fans can either live with or just don't care about.

Sure does he hit lefties as good as righties of course not we don't need a complex math formula to see that. I don't need a Harvard math degree to understand he hits righties better than lefties.

But now go outside of the Sabre stats world where there is more going on during a game than a isolated event that can be manipulated by a math formula.

So how many teams say in the AL East start a lefty and not just a lefty but a good one.

Yanks - Sabathia
Sox - Lester
Rays _ Price, Moore
Orioles - Chen

So in a series Choo may face each of those guys 4 times if that so out of 4 games your looking at 4 out of 16 ab's which is 25 % of his Ab's. If he hits .250 against them it means he would be 1 for 4 if they faced him 4 times in a game which is probably closer to 3 in most cases. Now each team carries a loogy and now here is where Sabremetrics flaws

You face the top of the order with the bullpen Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, EE and Choo

Lawrie gets on do you bring in the lefty to face Rasmus knowing if he crushes righties now there is 2 guys on for Jose and EE. Do you use up the lefty for Rasmus to minimize the damage and then let Choo face a righty.

Some teams may have 2 lefties in the pen but if the order went around again then they are facing righties and Choo's numbers are way better vs. righties.


So really I not even look at his .315 wOBA\95 wRC+ stats and I don't think most GM look at that and say **** we better not sign him cause those advanced stats may haunt us once a series if we face a lefty or in the 8th inning.

Game is played on the field not on a math sheet.
A 95 wRC just means that we plan his days off around guys like those starting (and still have him as a pinch hitter). He is competent, just not a star. The problem with Choo is that we'd have to give up assets to get him and would only have 1 year guaranteed.

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11-12-2012, 04:00 PM
  #253
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Originally Posted by Bjindaho View Post
A 95 wRC just means that we plan his days off around guys like those starting (and still have him as a pinch hitter). He is competent, just not a star. The problem with Choo is that we'd have to give up assets to get him and would only have 1 year guaranteed.
Yea defiantly not worth 1 year for what we would potentially have to give up.

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11-12-2012, 04:02 PM
  #254
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Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Again using Sabremetrics stats your creating a flaw into a players game that really with a complex math formula most managers, players, GM, casual fans can either live with or just don't care about.

Sure doesn't hit lefties as good as righties of course not we don't need a complex math formula to see that. I don't need a Harvard math degree to understand he hits righties better than lefties.

But now go outside of the Sabre stats world where there is more going on during a game than a isolated event that can be manipulated by a math formula.

So how many teams say in the AL East start a lefty and not just a lefty but a good one.

Yanks - Sabathia
Sox - Lester
Rays _ Price, Moore
Orioles - Chen

So in a series Choo may face each of those guys 4 times if that so out of 4 games your looking at 4 out of 16 ab's which is 25 % of his Ab's. If he hits .250 against them it means he would be 1 for 4 if they faced him 4 times in a game which is probably closer to 3 in most cases. Now each team carries a loogy and now here is where Sabremetrics flaws

You face the top of the order with the bullpen Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, EE and Choo

Lawrie gets on do you bring in the lefty to face Rasmus knowing if he crushes righties now there is 2 guys on for Jose and EE. Do you use up the lefty for Rasmus to minimize the damage and then let Choo face a righty.

Some teams may have 2 lefties in the pen but if the order went around again then they are facing righties and Choo's numbers are way better vs. righties.


So really I not even look at his .315 wOBA\95 wRC+ stats and I don't think most GM look at that and say **** we better not sign him cause those advanced stats may haunt us once a series if we face a lefty or in the 8th inning.

Game is played on the field not on a math sheet.
You must've missed my post earlier that agreed with you and said that he would fit the lineup and fill a need. And, if you did want to sit him against a tough lefty, you could put an already signed Rajai Davis into the lineup to face a Lester or Sabathia. My main issue is the cost of acquisition as I mentioned before, and the opportunity cost involved in using those assets on a LF instead of a SP. That's all.

Your comment about 'the game being played on the field' would be even more funny if you saw who you were speaking to, but I'll digress. I'm not hiding behind the Sabremetrics, I was just trying to help you and Jones out by presenting statistics.

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Old
11-12-2012, 04:04 PM
  #255
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Originally Posted by Spezza19 View Post
Wow came in here to see if there were any updates Jays rumours about who they may sign or trade for and there is absolutely nothing.

Macier Izturus
Jason Jaffries

I guess I really shouldn't expect much...
No you shouldn't. You should just stay away. Horror show. Stay away

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Old
11-12-2012, 04:04 PM
  #256
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Originally Posted by Bjindaho View Post
A 95 wRC just means that we plan his days off around guys like those starting (and still have him as a pinch hitter). He is competent, just not a star. The problem with Choo is that we'd have to give up assets to get him and would only have 1 year guaranteed.
I agree on the days a guy like Price is starting you may want to give him a day off but in reality he is an everyday MLB player who can hit lefties at solid number.

Sure he has 1 year left but that will factor in during the trade talks and lessen the return for CLE as they know he is going to be an FA. They would probably take a lesser return knowing he would not sign there again.

These are the moves to make to get premium talent in Toronto. Sure you may lose a prospect but its a chance and that is what will turn this franchise back around into a winner instead of hording the trading chips and waiting for that player who has contract left and is making cheap money.

Can't always wait for that controlable player with many years away from FA those player will cost double what Choo would cost.

You bring a guy here regardless of time to FA and provide him with a good team to play on, show him what a great city it is and how great the fans can be. Provide him with a competitive market value contract and forget about the team friendly contract and you have a chance to sign him.

There is a risk but remember that risk is what brought the Jays Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter. I remember that deal and people of Toronto who are old enough remember that is was not well received giving up Fernandez and McGriff 2 homegrown players and stars at the time.

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Old
11-12-2012, 04:09 PM
  #257
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Originally Posted by Diamond Joe Quimby View Post
You must've missed my post earlier that agreed with you and said that he would fit the lineup and fill a need. And, if you did want to sit him against a tough lefty, you could put an already signed Rajai Davis into the lineup to face a Lester or Sabathia. My main issue is the cost of acquisition as I mentioned before, and the opportunity cost involved in using those assets on a LF instead of a SP. That's all.

Your comment about 'the game being played on the field' would be even more funny if you saw who you were speaking to, but I'll digress. I'm not hiding behind the Sabremetrics, I was just trying to help you and Jones out by presenting statistics.
Haha I saw that after going up haha

I know what your saying but there is a risk but sometimes you need to take that risk. If the farm is as stocked as AA says it is then going after another SP is going to be easy with all the great prospects the Jays have.

Maybe in the Cleveland deal you add Masterson and give up a couple of better prospects. You can then still sign an pitcher on the FA market and then you have both pitchers you need to start the season.

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11-12-2012, 04:52 PM
  #258
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Originally Posted by AlienWorkShop View Post
I've seen this point a couple times about this "mythical" replacement player.

It's just a matter of using a baseline. WAR simply established baselines at league-average levels for defence and below league-average for offense. It doesn't even need to be literally AAA players when you're considering these "AAAA" players. Just taking a glance at all players with at least 300 PA last year, there were 26 players within .3 wins of 0 WAR last year, or roughly one per team. Throw in a fair amount of AAA players and it's a pretty reasonable assumption.

I'm no JPA fan, but it's harsh (and technically wrong) to call him a replacement level player considering he was a 1.3 WAR last year in only 102 games. I'm personally critical of JPA simply because I see little reason to suspect he'll improve much from what he is now, which is roughly a below-average catcher. Nothing particularly wrong with that, but nothing to get hyped about either, especially since he'll be 27 in January.

Considering JPA was at 1.3, it's certainly a stretch to suggest you could easily replace JPA and his .233/.275/.435, 89 wRC+ and average to below-average defence with some other bottom rung MLB catcher and/or a few AAA catchers.

But, in WAR's defence... Just to take one example from this past year, Josh Thole had a 0.1 WAR for the Mets. Is it really a stretch to suggest you could easily find a low-rung MLB backup catcher or AAA catcher that could replicate Thole's .234/.294/.290, 60 wRC+ and roughly league average defence? I don't think so.
I don't agree with that statement, in fact I think using WAR for a catcher is a bad idea to begin with given that it doesn't incorporate pitch framing data which makes up a significant portion of a catcher's defensive value, and it is there that JPA struggles significantly.

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11-12-2012, 04:54 PM
  #259
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Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
Really all this is doing is proving my point about how people here undervalue any player who doesn't have a great OBP. You say he's worse than average, Toronto would say otherwise. Teams like the Rangers, a top team who want him as their starting catcher, say otherwise. This is the point about sabemetrics being used and not caring about anything else. Why do you think there is no GM who swears by sabametrics completely, not even Mr. Moneyball Billy Beane.

Replacement level would presume there are minor league catchers who are as good as JPA. That simply isn't true. Replacement level will always remain the reason WAR is not taken as a major stat among big league personel. How can a player be at or below replacement when there is no one lower than MLB better?

JPA is an above-average catcher, other teams considered that. Like I said, you would be laughed at if you said JPA is no better than Mathis and is one of the worst catchers in the league. It's really the same as hockey fans who use CORSI, just on a larger scale. Sabametrics has it's place, but when you use it as an end all be all like you are, it's useless, pointless. The way you talk, no team should give more than an midling prospect for JPA or an OK relief pitcher, which is completely ludicrous. Mathis was had for nothing, and you think JPA is no better.

I'm pretty glad people like you don't work for the Jays, though I wish you worked for a team for some good young players, Jays might be able to swing a good player for nothing.
Stop pretending that you know what general managers around the league think about J.P. Arencibia, you don't. Nor does anyone else on this forum.

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11-12-2012, 05:04 PM
  #260
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For those interested in pitch framing data:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-2012-results/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=15093

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...hl=en_US#gid=0

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11-12-2012, 05:14 PM
  #261
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Stop pretending that you know what general managers around the league think about J.P. Arencibia, you don't. Nor does anyone else on this forum.
You can extrapolate that from what people in the media say, and from their comments themselves. You will never see the things that are said here on sabametrics on the management. In fact, when you get people talking about it, they will talk about the dangers of using sabametrics as an end all be all.

Dirk Hayhurst had a really good segment on F590 about a month ago about it, talking about the advantages but also that in no way, shape or form does it supplant traditional scouting and evalutory techniques, which Arencibia will get much of his value from (His personality, way of handling the pitching staff, his power, his contract status, his talent) instead of people here looking at his OBP and WAR and saying he's a horrible catcher.

This is probably the most irritable thing about these boards, the armchair scouts/GMs who will unrelentlingly bash a player because someone on fangraphs wrote something about it or their advanced stats aren't good. Arencibia is far better than people here give him credit for and I am quite happy that no one like that works for the Jays. Stop using sabametrics as the only thing that matters, because it doesn't, and never will.

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11-12-2012, 05:18 PM
  #262
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Originally Posted by Bjindaho View Post
I'm not going to comment on RBIs because they are an empty stat.
the ability to put your team on the board with RISP is an 'empty stat'?

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11-12-2012, 05:53 PM
  #263
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Originally Posted by Sokil View Post
the ability to put your team on the board with RISP is an 'empty stat'?
It has little to do with the batter at the plate. RBI opportunities are based upon the player ahead getting on base.

Fun to talk about though.

After reading through the first article I was surprised to not see a single mention of Jose Molina, the master of strike-zone manipulation. Some interesting reads.


Last edited by Everlong: 11-12-2012 at 06:03 PM.
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11-12-2012, 06:05 PM
  #264
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Originally Posted by Everlong View Post
It has little to do with the batter at the plate. RBI opportunities are based upon the player ahead getting on base.
I guess all you can really say is that all else being equal, a better hitter will produce more RBIs. So if for example, D'Arnaud is a "better" hitter than Arencibia, he will produce more RBIs.

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11-12-2012, 06:15 PM
  #265
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I guess all you can really say is that all else being equal, a better hitter will produce more RBIs. So if for example, D'Arnaud is a "better" hitter than Arencibia, he will produce more RBIs.
It would give you a better opportunity yes, but again, it's situational.

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11-12-2012, 06:19 PM
  #266
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Originally Posted by Everlong View Post
It has little to do with the batter at the plate. RBI opportunities are based upon the player ahead getting on base.

Fun to talk about though.



After reading through the first article I was surprised to not see a single mention of Jose Molina, the master of strike-zone manipulation. Some interesting reads.
The first article was team based, the second and third were individual based stats in 2011, and Molina got heavy recognition in them.

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11-12-2012, 06:21 PM
  #267
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Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
You can extrapolate that from what people in the media say, and from their comments themselves. You will never see the things that are said here on sabametrics on the management. In fact, when you get people talking about it, they will talk about the dangers of using sabametrics as an end all be all.
Ok, quote these sources in the media and prove to me that every manager in the game views J.P. Arencibia as a viable starting catcher. It should be easy if what you are saying is even remotely true.

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11-12-2012, 06:24 PM
  #268
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Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
This is probably the most irritable thing about these boards, the armchair scouts/GMs who will unrelentlingly bash a player because someone on fangraphs wrote something about it or their advanced stats aren't good. Arencibia is far better than people here give him credit for and I am quite happy that no one like that works for the Jays. Stop using sabametrics as the only thing that matters, because it doesn't, and never will.
The beauty about advanced statistics and studies is that they are objectively true, unlike the opinions of armchair scouts, and posters like you who believe they have insight into the opinions of professional major league executives.

Fun fact, the writer of the pitch framing data that I linked above was hired as a front office executive of Tampa Bay in their analytic department. The same data that ranks J.P. Arencibia as an inefficient, and below average defensive catcher.

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11-12-2012, 06:26 PM
  #269
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The first article was team based, the second and third were individual based stats in 2011, and Molina got heavy recognition in them.
Yeah I knew he'd get mentioned in atleast one of them. Haven't gotten to the other 2 articles just yet.

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11-12-2012, 06:27 PM
  #270
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Originally Posted by Sokil View Post
the ability to put your team on the board with RISP is an 'empty stat'?
You should really stop using disparaging emoticons, it reflects poorly on you. Particularly when what you are arguing is incorrect, which I've found to be most of the time.

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11-12-2012, 06:29 PM
  #271
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It's funny because he was voted as the second best defensive SS by his peers mid season, and is widely regarded as a great defensive SS by fans and media alike. You are absolutely right though, Cabrera is a bad defensive SS, he makes the flashy plays, but has poor range at SS. Both UZR and DRS rank him well below average..

Cabrera appears regularly on Baseball Tonight webjems and that's why people think he's good defensively.

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11-12-2012, 06:34 PM
  #272
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Asdurbal Cabrera is one of the worst defensive short stops in baseball. He really needs to change positions. Obviously nobody should be expecting a Brendan Ryan, but is even replacement level defense enough to ask for?

Jays becomes a worse team with him at a SS instead of Escobar, IMO. Middle infield defense is underrated. If you have a poor pitching staff, you need your defense to help prevent runs. This is one way of improving your pitching without actually improving your pitching.

The talk about JP being able to bring in a young pitcher sounds good. If it's possible, I am all for it. I don't rate JP at all, and consider him to be one of the worst catchers in baseball, actually. His numbers make that claim based in reality, too.

Especially when you consider that Romero and Alvarez are extreme ground ball pitchers.

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11-12-2012, 06:36 PM
  #273
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Almost ready? You mean the guy that spent most of the year at A ball? And then struggled to hit when he got to High A (he was young for the league but nonetheless). He is so not anywhere near ready. Likely not a guy that sticks at SS either.

Doubt Cubs would trade Castro at this point.

Yup there's a good chance Baez is hot corner bound.

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11-12-2012, 06:45 PM
  #274
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JPA is an above-average catcher, other teams considered that. Like I said, you would be laughed at if you said JPA is no better than Mathis and is one of the worst catchers in the league. It's really the same as hockey fans who use CORSI, just on a larger scale. Sabametrics has it's place, but when you use it as an end all be all like you are, it's useless, pointless. The way you talk, no team should give more than an midling prospect for JPA or an OK relief pitcher, which is completely ludicrous. Mathis was had for nothing, and you think JPA is no better.

24th in OPS amongst catchers with at least 200 at bats this season. Pretty bad for an offensive catcher. Also OPS is not a sabremetric stat.

JPA has 1 good tool. Power, that's it. Poor plate discipline, allergic to walks, poor contact rate (he'll strike out more than 30% of the time).

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11-12-2012, 06:49 PM
  #275
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Originally Posted by Scion View Post
The beauty about advanced statistics and studies is that they are objectively true, unlike the opinions of armchair scouts, and posters like you who believe they have insight into the opinions of professional major league executives.

Fun fact, the writer of the pitch framing data that I linked above was hired as a front office executive of Tampa Bay in their analytic department. The same data that ranks J.P. Arencibia as an inefficient, and below average defensive catcher.
Scion before you got here he went by a different name and claimed JPA to be a face of the franchise. He wildly overvalues JPA. I don't think he's as brutal as some suggest but man he has a real man love for him.

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