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Old
11-12-2012, 08:35 PM
  #251
Vankiller Whale
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Komi & Bozak aren't going to kill the deal, they're just not going to be involved because they're worth more to the Leafs than they are the Canucks.

When looking at players who would be likely to go for Luongo, you have to look at guys who the Canucks would place higher value on than the Leafs.

Think a guy like MacArthur who can immediately step onto their 2nd line and give them depth as opposed to a winger crowded in depth in Toronto. Or a depth centre like Lombardi who on a good day is the Leafs 4th best centre, but on that same good day, becomes Vancouver's #3C.
The thing is, Macarthur and Lombardi probably have as much or less value to Vancouver as they do to Toronto. Both significantly overpayed and upcoming UFAs, they would simply be salary fillers. Neither Macarthur nor Lombardi are noticeable upgrades over what we have already, and their value to us would be minimal.

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11-12-2012, 08:43 PM
  #252
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
LTIR is yet another way around it, true.

I think you bring up a good point about the perception of the contract: You said an out clause is a reason Lu's contract should be viewed as questionable. I think that's facetious. An out clause is insurance - that's it. When you sign a player like this, you are doing so based on his character and longevity. The out clause is a doomsday device that need not ever be used. But it's there only as an added level of protection should it be required.

So really, is anyone thinking about the out clause every year Lu provides starter level goaltending at a 5.3m cap-hit? Nope. They just sit back and enjoy the cap-circumvention.

It is just astounding how his contract continues to be misinterpreted. A team like DET would understand his deal because they are currently benefiting from the structure themselves. The cheat BDCs are excellent and people don't even recognize it.
I view these long term BDC's like a loan that you're not paying off, just kicking down the road to deal with another day. That's why I don't see one of those contracts as having tremendous value.

You're basically taking a ticking time bomb off someone's books. If I'm a GM who doesn't plan on keeping my job for more than a few seasons, sure I'll take Luongo on my team. Because I won't have to deal with that contract when it stops looking like a good deal.

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11-12-2012, 08:58 PM
  #253
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Originally Posted by tempest2i View Post
I view these long term BDC's like a loan that you're not paying off, just kicking down the road to deal with another day. That's why I don't see one of those contracts as having tremendous value.

You're basically taking a ticking time bomb off someone's books. If I'm a GM who doesn't plan on keeping my job for more than a few seasons, sure I'll take Luongo on my team. Because I won't have to deal with that contract when it stops looking like a good deal.
And when it stops looking like a good deal (in 5-6 years) he can be waived, moved or he'll retire.
I dont know why this is so complicated, except as grist for the lowball mill...

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11-12-2012, 09:01 PM
  #254
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Komi & Bozak aren't going to kill the deal, they're just not going to be involved because they're worth more to the Leafs than they are the Canucks.

When looking at players who would be likely to go for Luongo, you have to look at guys who the Canucks would place higher value on than the Leafs.

Think a guy like MacArthur who can immediately step onto their 2nd line and give them depth as opposed to a winger crowded in depth in Toronto. Or a depth centre like Lombardi who on a good day is the Leafs 4th best centre, but on that same good day, becomes Vancouver's #3C.



If the deal is Lombardi + 1st (top 10 protected) for Luongo... sure. No reason to take the first off the table, the deal as a whole does have to make sense though... and for a team that has a bunch of older prospects and a very young team, a first is likely to be overvalued by the Leafs relative to a prospect who can play right away (and may also need to in order to keep developing).
Sean..there is zero chance Lombardi and a protected 1st gets Luongo. I mean....would you do that if you were Gillis?

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11-12-2012, 09:01 PM
  #255
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To Vancouver:
Rielly, Connolly, Franson

To Toronto
Luongo, Alberts, Sauve, 2nd

Vancouver gets a future offensive dman, defensive depth and a centremen. Connolly has next to no value but he only has 1 year left on his contract, offensive upside, can fill in at centre with injuries and may be a decent playmaker and If it doesn't work out let him walk at the end of the season.

Toronto gets a proven starter in goal, defensive depth, a D prospect and a high draft pick.

Flame away!

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11-12-2012, 09:04 PM
  #256
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rhodes82 View Post
To Vancouver:
Rielly, Connolly, Franson

To Toronto
Luongo, Alberts, Sauve, 2nd

Vancouver gets a future offensive dman, defensive depth and a centremen. Connolly has next to no value but he only has 1 year left on his contract, offensive upside, can fill in at centre with injuries and may be a decent playmaker and If it doesn't work out let him walk at the end of the season.

Toronto gets a proven starter in goal, defensive depth, a D prospect and a high draft pick.

Flame away!
Sure. Toronto wouldn't do it, though.

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Old
11-12-2012, 09:11 PM
  #257
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rhodes82 View Post
To Vancouver:
Rielly, Connolly, Franson

To Toronto
Luongo, Alberts, Sauve, 2nd

Vancouver gets a future offensive dman, defensive depth and a centremen. Connolly has next to no value but he only has 1 year left on his contract, offensive upside, can fill in at centre with injuries and may be a decent playmaker and If it doesn't work out let him walk at the end of the season.

Toronto gets a proven starter in goal, defensive depth, a D prospect and a high draft pick.

Flame away!
I won't flame, but Reilly won't/can't be moved.

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Old
11-12-2012, 09:40 PM
  #258
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Originally Posted by NYVanfan View Post
And when it stops looking like a good deal (in 5-6 years) he can be waived, moved or he'll retire.
I dont know why this is so complicated, except as grist for the lowball mill...
Or just don't put yourself in that situation in the first place. Let someone else deal with that contract, just like the Canucks are trying to do right now.

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11-12-2012, 09:42 PM
  #259
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NYVanfan View Post
And when it stops looking like a good deal (in 5-6 years) he can be waived, moved or he'll retire.
I dont know why this is so complicated, except as grist for the lowball mill...
A lot of people don't view $6.7 million in real salary for 6 years a good deal. Especially for a goalie who's already peaked. That's more expensive than Carey Price and he's on the rise. Not the decline. And when i say he's on the decline, i don't mean he's starting to suck now. I mean he's just going to age and be less effective than he was in the past. A $5.3 million cap hit may be lower than his actual salary by quite abit but it's still over 5 million which I really don't see as amazing. If he declines in the next 3 years which is very possible, the team that acquires him won't have the same luxury Vancouver has now of trading him. And at that price he's far to expensive to have as a backup. Especially on a team like Florida. By the sounds of it, there's a strong chance barrying a player in the minors will be stopped in the new CBA. That's also a problem.

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11-12-2012, 09:43 PM
  #260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tempest2i View Post
Or just don't put yourself in that situation in the first place. Let someone else deal with that contract, just like the Canucks are trying to do right now.
Most teams would rather have 5-6 years of elite netminding and deal with it.

Canucks have the luxury of Schneider taking over. Most teams looking to deal for Luongo have mediocre goalies like Dubnyk, Reimer, Mason, etc

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Old
11-12-2012, 09:50 PM
  #261
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Originally Posted by Shawnathon View Post
A lot of people don't view $6.7 million in real salary for 6 years a good deal. Especially for a goalie who's already peaked. That's more expensive than Carey Price and he's on the rise. Not the decline. And when i say he's on the decline, i don't mean he's starting to suck now. I mean he's just going to age and be less effective than he was in the past. A $5.3 million cap hit may be lower than his actual salary by quite abit but it's still over 5 million which I really don't see as amazing. If he declines in the next 3 years which is very possible, the team that acquires him won't have the same luxury Vancouver has now of trading him. And at that price he's far to expensive to have as a backup. Especially on a team like Florida. By the sounds of it, there's a strong chance barrying a player in the minors will be stopped in the new CBA. That's also a problem.
A few things here. It is my beleaf that excisting contracts will be grandfathered as the NHL signed off on them. If there are penalties set, they will go against the team who gave the contract.

In terms of actual salary...if Luongo's contract is grandfathered, it is tailormade for a cash rich team like TO, 6.7 cash means squat...5.3 cap is a steal for a proven starter. I also believe Luongo will give another 5 years of quality goaltending and after that, we could use one of the multiple outs.

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Old
11-12-2012, 09:56 PM
  #262
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
A few things here. It is my beleaf that excisting contracts will be grandfathered as the NHL signed off on them. If there are penalties set, they will go against the team who gave the contract.

In terms of actual salary...if Luongo's contract is grandfathered, it is tailormade for a cash rich team like TO, 6.7 cash means squat...5.3 cap is a steal for a proven starter. I also believe Luongo will give another 5 years of quality goaltending and after that, we could use one of the multiple outs.
I agree this is a contract that a team like Toronto can afford to take a chance on.

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Old
11-12-2012, 09:57 PM
  #263
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
It amazes me that even though the fans of the Leafs know very well that this team had 2 massive needs, they think that we can fill one of them for a pack of donuts. I think the last time a starter of Luongo's skill was offered was....well i don't know when. But alas, i'm sure when team tank feels we have sucked long enough that we are finally ready to actually try to win some games, someone will offer up a proven starter again.
I remember when Vancouver traded for Luongo we gave up Bertuzzi coming off a 70+ point season, Bryan Allen coming off 4th NHL season as 4th overall pick (actually great comparison to Luke Schenn at the time), and Alex Auld who I believe was Vancouvers starter at the time. Obviously Luongo was younger, but we sent good value and we were really happy to do so. In the end it did not work out for Florida, but who knows whatever we get for Luongo now could turn out the same. You make a good point, and from experience it pays off to acquire a top notch goalie. Vancouver fans are stupid, because people blame Luongo for teams failures but forget to thank him for all his successes I will miss him!

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Old
11-12-2012, 10:07 PM
  #264
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Originally Posted by birddog View Post
Not sure how anyone in their right mind can fathom how Burke would include a first. He already traded Seguin and Hamilton. Do you think he wants to deal McKinnon, or Jones, or similar? It's never going to happen. Burke isn't going to sign his own death warrant.
Fun fact: Burke never traded Seguin or Hamilton

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Old
11-12-2012, 10:16 PM
  #265
tempest2i
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Originally Posted by BayStBullies View Post
Fun fact: Burke never traded Seguin or Hamilton
While technically true, Burke did trade the 2nd and 9th overall draft picks.

That's one of the risks you take when trading a first round draft choice of any kind. It's rather eye opening to go back and read that thread on the Kessel trade. http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...d.php?t=682236

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." --George Santayana


Last edited by tempest2i: 11-12-2012 at 10:17 PM. Reason: added quote
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11-12-2012, 10:18 PM
  #266
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I honestly feel like Reimer could be a solid piece in any potential 3 way trades

Maybe about something like

Toronto
Roberto Luongo

Gets their goalie at the cost of Kadri, Reimer and a protected 1st.

Vancouver
Ryane Clowe
Nazem Kadri
Top 10 Protectes 1st (Toronto)

Addresses their need of a top-6 forward, while adding some youth to the organization.


San Jose
Mason Raymond
James Reimer
Vancouver 2nd 2013

Buys low on a winger who can produce similarly to Clowe, as well as a 2nd.

San Jose also gets a very capable backup, or at least another lower end starter to compete with Niemi for a 1a/1B role.

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11-12-2012, 10:20 PM
  #267
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Quote:
Originally Posted by birddog View Post
Not sure how anyone in their right mind can fathom how Burke would include a first. He already traded Seguin and Hamilton. Do you think he wants to deal McKinnon, or Jones, or similar? It's never going to happen. Burke isn't going to sign his own death warrant.
Burke is already on year 5 of a 5 year plan, a plan not only to make the playoffs but to win the cup. If the Leafs finish in a position to draft a McKinnon, or Jones, or similar his death warrant is already signed and that's the bottom line.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ACC1224 View Post
He won`t include a 1st because he won`t need to, not out of fear.
It was widely rumored that Burke had offered Schenn (JVR) for Luongo straight up and Gillis's asking price was Gardiner / Schenn + the 5th overall (Rielly). Who do you think is under more pressure / fear of losing their job, the GM who hasn't made the playoffs and lost millions for ownership or the GM who turned their team into perennial cup contenders and 2 x PT winners? Gillis can afford to wait until his asking price is met. Gillis has never waivered from what he wants and in fact has stated he's more than happy to go into next season with both goalies fighting it out for the starter. If Burke wants Luongo he's going to have meet Gillis's price.
For Burke to get Luongo it's going to take
JVR / Gardiner + Rielly (Gillis's rumored asking price) or
JVR / Gardiner + Finn & protected 1st or
JVR / Gardiner + Colbourne & a 1st

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Old
11-12-2012, 10:21 PM
  #268
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Clowe is worth much more than that.

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11-12-2012, 10:21 PM
  #269
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To

Luongo
Raymond

To

JVR/Lupul
Franson
Top-10 protected 2013 1st round pick
2013 4th round pick

VAN then flips a pick to someone (Florida?) for a backup goalie.


Last edited by WonderTwinsUnite: 11-12-2012 at 10:30 PM.
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Old
11-12-2012, 10:26 PM
  #270
Vankiller Whale
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Originally Posted by WonderTwinsUnite View Post
To

Luongo
Raymond

To

JVR/Lupul
Franson
Top-10 protected 2013 1st round pick
2013 4th round pick

VAN then flips a pick to someone (Florida?) for a backup goalie.
I'd do it, and I think the value is fair. Don't necessarily care about Franson, though. Also, I'd rather see how Lack does as backup before coughing up for one elsewhere.

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Old
11-12-2012, 10:28 PM
  #271
Ho Borvat
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Originally Posted by Co Ho View Post
Clowe is worth much more than that.
I would disagree.

Maybe a signed Clowe, but not a pending UFA

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Old
11-12-2012, 10:31 PM
  #272
Liferleafer
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I'd do it, and I think the value is fair. Don't necessarily care about Franson, though. Also, I'd rather see how Lack does as backup before coughing up for one elsewhere.
How about we remove Franson and Raymond.

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11-12-2012, 10:31 PM
  #273
Vankiller Whale
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
How about we remove Franson and Raymond.
Sounds good to me.

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11-12-2012, 10:31 PM
  #274
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I'd do it, and I think the value is fair. Don't necessarily care about Franson, though. Also, I'd rather see how Lack does as backup before coughing up for one elsewhere.
Let the new goalie and Lack compete for the role.

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Old
11-12-2012, 10:34 PM
  #275
Back in 94
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
I honestly feel like Reimer could be a solid piece in any potential 3 way trades

Maybe about something like

Toronto
Roberto Luongo

Gets their goalie at the cost of Kadri, Reimer and a protected 1st.

Vancouver
Ryane Clowe
Nazem Kadri
Top 10 Protectes 1st (Toronto)

Addresses their need of a top-6 forward, while adding some youth to the organization.


San Jose
Mason Raymond
James Reimer
Vancouver 2nd 2013

Buys low on a winger who can produce similarly to Clowe, as well as a 2nd.

San Jose also gets a very capable backup, or at least another lower end starter to compete with Niemi for a 1a/1B role.
Don't see any reason why the Sharks do this deal. Raymonds value is at an all time low, Reimer would be a back up in SJ, and a late 2nd for a playmaking PWF?

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