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Off-season Madness the 3rd: Jeffrey Loria taketh and Jeffrey Loria giveth away

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Old
11-14-2012, 08:28 PM
  #901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohio Jones View Post
...about Buehrle? Thought they were referring to Johnson. God, our inferiority complex is deeply ingrained if we can't even enjoy a blockbuster trade like this for 24 hours before we start panicking. Sad, really.
This ^^^

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11-14-2012, 08:31 PM
  #902
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When will AA have a press conference and the like?

I'd like to hear what he has to say about the deal, as well as what the players we just acquired think about coming to Toronto.

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11-14-2012, 08:33 PM
  #903
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Originally Posted by Sokil View Post
I'm really not happy with our outfield at the moment. Having 2 holes in CF and LF makes me uneasy. I'm okay with a questionable 1B/2B platoon going on (I'm feeling good about Boni making a name for himself), but not with 4 key positions just up in the air (or filled with questionable players, like Rasmus, who sucks)
Don't give up on Rasmus just yet, the potential is there, I actually see a good year ahead for him.

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11-14-2012, 08:36 PM
  #904
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I just hope that the Jays aren't done it would be a big let down if they don't sign any UFA's after this big trade.

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11-14-2012, 08:36 PM
  #905
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7,8,9 hitters boni, davis, gose

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11-14-2012, 08:37 PM
  #906
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Saw this posted on mlb forums from a commentator. It's Keith Law analysis on the trade. Pretty good read.

Quote:
The Blue Jays-Marlins trade, pending physicals, is a five-for-seven swap that sees the Jays getting Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, and John Buck in exchange for prospects Jake Marisnick, Justin Nicolino, and Anthony Desclafani and big leaguers Henderson Alvarez, Jeff Mathis, Yunel Escobar, and Adeiny Hechavarria. It's a huge deal in numbers and in its potential to impact the standings of two divisions in 2013, with the Jays poised to be the most relevant they've been in 20 years while the Marlins live down to the reputation the franchise acquired in 1997-98 and has deserved ever since.

The Blue Jays get a lot of impact talent in this deal, making them contenders (at least for the moment) in 2013 without substantially damaging their chances to contend in future years. Johnson is an ace when healthy, which he seldom is; he finished the year looking strong, back to 93-97 with a plus curveball and above-average slider again, and if he looks like that all year he could be worth 5 wins above replacement to a Jays team that hasn't had that guy since they traded Roy Halladay.

[+] Enlarge

AP Photo/Matt Slocum
Jose Reyes is a major upgrade for the Jays.
Johnson tops the rotation ahead of Brandon Morrow, behind whom they'll slot Buehrle, a reliable innings-eater who reached 200 innings for the 12th straight season, but whose below-average fastball isn't an ideal fit for Toronto's homer-friendly home park. Even if he dips to just below league-average, the Jays desperately need the innings he'll provide, given the elbow plague that infected their rotation in 2012. If Johnson is healthy and Ricky Romero gets back to his old form, this will be one of the league's best rotations in 2013, although the probability of both of those things happening in one calendar year is not that high.

Reyes becomes the Jays' everyday shortstop, the best one they've had since Tony Fernandez left after the 1999 season. His 2011 walk year was built on a batting average he wasn't likely to see again, but the remainder of his skill set -- average defense at short, above-average running, good plate coverage, modest pop -- remains intact, and at shortstop that's going to be worth 4-to-6 wins over replacement, and a quick upgrade of about 3 over what the Jays got out of shortstop this past season.

They'll also get value from having Bonifacio as a supersub, a plus runner who can play six spots on the diamond, five of them well enough to handle on a part-time basis. Buck is a $6 million backup catcher, adding to Toronto's pile of catching while the Marlins get to dump a contract that was dumb the day that Marlins gave it to him and looks just as bad now. He might be headed on to a third team, or could make it easier for the Jays to deal J.P. Arencibia and make room for catcher-of-the-future Travis d'Arnaud.

The lone negative for Jays fans is that the team has acquired a substantial amount of money, with Buehrle and Reyes both under contract beyond this year and possibly limiting the team's ability to make further moves this offseason or next. Buehrle is the biggest risk of the three major names coming back to fail to produce up to the level of his salary, although he happens to give the club the healthy/durable starter they desperately needed and might have had to overpay to get in free agency.

I'd offer my condolences to the Marlins' fans if I could only find them. Of all the players Miami got in return, only two stand out as guys the Blue Jays might someday miss, outfielder Marisnick and left-hander Nicolino.

Marisnick was the highest-rated coming into the 2012 season and had a solid first-half in high Class A before struggling with his approach after a midseason promotion to Double-A. The tools are still there -- above-average runner, above-average arm, plenty of range for center, more raw power than in-game -- but that approach is becoming a greater concern as he gets older and it doesn't improve, especially when he's beatable both on breaking stuff and on hard stuff up or in. I also worry about the power not playing in games because he has virtually no load, so he doesn't get extended well enough before making contact, although that's something that could be tweaked. He's a strong prospect, but not as exciting as he looked 10 months ago.

[+] Enlarge

Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images
Escobar's antics have now gotten him run out of Atlanta and Toronto.
Nicolino's stat line is a little misleading, as he's not a power pitcher but a finesse left-hander with an average fastball that touches 93 mph and a plus changeup. He can flat-out pitch, with poise and approach that belie his age, and an easy, repeatable delivery. He may not miss as many bats as he moves up the ladder and doesn't offer any projection, but lefties with feel and a good change can pitch towards the middle of a rotation for a long time.

Henderson Alvarez had a plus fastball and plus changeup when he was coming up in the Jays' system, but the fastball has backed off a little and he's been unable to keep his changeup down in the zone, while he's never developed an average breaking ball, all of which has dropped his outlook from potential No. 2 starter to probable reliever. The Marlins can and should give Alvarez another year or so in the rotation to see if any of those issues resolves with experience or a new coaching staff, but as it stands now he doesn't miss enough bats to be a major league starter.

Anthony DeSclafani is definitely a reliever, where he'll touch 95 but needs to get more consistent tilt on his slider; he's a strike-thrower who did get to refine his off-speed stuff somewhat this year as a starter in low-A.

Jeff Mathis has a career .256 OBP in more than1,500 plate appearances and is probably best not discussed any further.

Yunel Escobar is probably better known for his bad makeup than he is for his on-field skills and has now run himself out of two cities; he doesn't walk or hit for power and his only offensive production in Toronto came at home in the first half of 2011, but he makes enough contact and adds value with his glove to make him a 2-win player.

Adeiny Hechavarria is a 70 defender at shortstop (on the 20-80 scouting scale) both in glove and arm, and is never going to hit -- but replacement level at short right now is low enough that he could be a 2-win player, although one of these two guys has to move off short. Both were born in Cuba and may, in theory, appeal to Cuban-American Marlins fans who aren't thoroughly disgusted by the way the team's ownership is running the franchise back into the subterranean hole out of which they originally crawled.

Those limicolous owners are the greatest joke of all in this deal, rooking Florida taxpayers for a publicly-funded stadium, only to make one half-hearted attempt to fill it with a contending team, surrendering it after the season to return to their old business model, playing a skeleton-crew lineup while pocketing all of their revenue-sharing money. This isn't a bad baseball deal for Miami, but it's not a baseball deal at all -- it's a boondoggle, perpetrated by owners who have pulled one stunt like this after another, with the implicit approval of the Commissioner's Office. It's time for baseball to rid itself of Jeff Loria and David Samson by any means possible. Miami, the state of Florida, and the sport in general will be better off without them.

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Old
11-14-2012, 08:37 PM
  #907
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Let's all take a deep breath and relax.

And then realise Romero is now our #4 starter for 2013.

If Reyes can get back over .300avg to lead off, we will be laughing.

Does anyone remember Santos?

Our stopper, that never played?

After all the bad crazy stuff that happened last year, with just a few breaks our way this team is looking at the post season.

I haven't hard the media around here so jacked up in a long time. I thought Tim AND Sid were going to start..., well they were pumped.

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11-14-2012, 08:40 PM
  #908
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobloblawLeaf View Post
When will AA have a press conference and the like?

I'd like to hear what he has to say about the deal, as well as what the players we just acquired think about coming to Toronto.
Not until all physicals are passed and it is approved, I'd guess.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TML g u n n e R s View Post
7,8,9 hitters boni, davis, gose
I'd say Bonifacio is the 2B and Gose is in LF. Rasmus is already in CF. Every team has holes in the lineup. Every. Can't expect a flawless lineup. Now just get Mottola here for everyone not named Bautista/EE.

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11-14-2012, 08:44 PM
  #909
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He meant for himself lol

Which means he needs to post another 10k times this year to catch up for next year (yay optimism!)
LOL I'm an idiot

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11-14-2012, 08:45 PM
  #910
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Originally Posted by TML g u n n e R s View Post
7,8,9 hitters boni, davis, gose
That's why they need a LF or 2nd with some pop

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11-14-2012, 08:45 PM
  #911
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What makes you say that?
Knowing AA, I don't think he would put so much on the line on a guy who has 1 year deal and would be asking for the biggest contract on the market. He either has an extension worked out, or he is moving forward.

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11-14-2012, 08:47 PM
  #912
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Good job guys. We have almost gone through a whole thread in 24 hours.

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Old
11-14-2012, 08:50 PM
  #913
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Originally Posted by Anthrax442 View Post
Knowing AA, I don't think he would put so much on the line on a guy who has 1 year deal and would be asking for the biggest contract on the market. He either has an extension worked out, or he is moving forward.
Thats what I was thinking too. There was no way he was taking JJ for one year. He has something planned.

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11-14-2012, 08:50 PM
  #914
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Even if he doesn't, you qualify him and Drabek/Hutch are back next year in an absolute worst case scenario.

I mean obviously extending him is far better but its not like he just walks for nothing and there's absolutely no one to replace him (and if he becomes a $15-20M per year pitcher, its probably good news for us for next year).

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11-14-2012, 08:52 PM
  #915
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One thing that is discouraging is that many AL East fans seem to think this was a bad trade for us. It does not matter but I wish more of their fans would write that they were worried about us. They are capable of it because they were all mad at the Cardinals for giving us Rasmus.

I am not sure how much stock to give some of those people when they seriously think the A's and O's have a better roster than us still.

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11-14-2012, 08:54 PM
  #916
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jozay View Post
Thats what I was thinking too. There was no way he was taking JJ for one year. He has something planned.
It's just every time they talk about anyone, they talk "control". Everyone is sick of this word, and now this guy, the best pitcher we got for only one year? suspicious.

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11-14-2012, 09:01 PM
  #917
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Originally Posted by JaysLeafsTFCfan View Post
One thing that is discouraging is that many AL East fans seem to think this was a bad trade for us. It does not matter but I wish more of their fans would write that they were worried about us. They are capable of it because they were all mad at the Cardinals for giving us Rasmus.

I am not sure how much stock to give some of those people when they seriously think the A's and O's have a better roster than us still.
Probably just jealousy, if this was the Yankee's or Red Sox who pulled this off it would be considered the great train robbery of Miami. One thing I have learned in AA's tenure is to trust the scouting staff. In many cases of failing players there are clear signs of regression that point to it coming, I am sure we have done our due diligence here.

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11-14-2012, 09:02 PM
  #918
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who's our best shortstop defensively?

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11-14-2012, 09:03 PM
  #919
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Sorry if this has been posted:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...tive-on-paper/

Quote:

If the Blue Jays plan on making the playoffs, they probably need to find 22 more wins this year than the 73 they squeezed out of 2012. It’s difficult to make that happen with one trade, but if one ever had a chance it’s this. The new middle infield looks to pick up anywhere from four to six wins; the improved starting pitching another six to 10. Add another one for the better bench and we’re still a little short — maybe 17 wins instead of 22. But with improved health — from Jose Bautista and Ricky Romero specifically and the entire team generally — the Blue Jays have a distinct chance at 95 wins in 2012, and with it a playoff berth either through the division championship or a Wild Card.

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11-14-2012, 09:04 PM
  #920
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
who's our best shortstop defensively?
Probably our only Shortstop, Reyes.

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11-14-2012, 09:08 PM
  #921
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So where is everyone getting this $120 Million figure from? I got the payroll at $102,076,667.00 with Happ, Rasmus and Boneface Arb eligible.

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11-14-2012, 09:08 PM
  #922
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Originally Posted by Woodman19 View Post
Probably our only Shortstop, Reyes.
looks like it
and they call him avg defensively

wondering if they might consider izsturis at ss, reyes at 2b

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11-14-2012, 09:22 PM
  #923
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
looks like it
and they call him avg defensively

wondering if they might consider izsturis at ss, reyes at 2b
I thought we got our 2b in the Farrell trade?

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11-14-2012, 09:22 PM
  #924
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All teams have holes, but this year we are looking at the best team in recent memory. We are fortunate that the holes we do have (mainly 1b/LF) can be platooned with some good players. Encarnacion can play 1B AND LF if necessary, and Bonifacio/Gose/Davis can all manage LF adequately.

And John Buck is a great addition as well. His power numbers have declined since he left here, but there is a chance that a return the skydome can spark him up again. Regardless, he's bound to provide more production than Mathis.

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11-14-2012, 09:23 PM
  #925
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So where is everyone getting this $120 Million figure from? I got the payroll at $102,076,667.00 with Happ, Rasmus and Boneface Arb eligible.
Happ and Rasmus' projected salaries are 3.8 and 4.5 million respectively. Boni's projected salary is 2.5 million. So that brings you over 112m?


Quote:
Originally Posted by charliolemieux View Post
I thought we got our 2b in the Farrell trade?
Aviles got flipped to the Indians with Yan Gomes for Esmil Rogers.

And yeah, no way Izturis switches with Reyes. For one, he's worse than Reyes at shortstop, and two, Reyes wouldn't want to switch from his natural position.

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