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Old
11-14-2012, 07:40 PM
  #801
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Garrity View Post
I might get flamed for this, but I've been hearing Melky Cabrera is not going to be offered long term/big money. Surely I don't expect nearly the same numbers he was putting up while on roids, but if the price is right he is a solid enough hitter.
The Angels need a third baseman and pitching, the outfield is set. Cabrera is also terrible in the clubhouse.


I'm willing to wager that Borjous has a pretty similar year at the plate next season as Hunter. Torri's stats were inflated due to that .390 BBIP.

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11-14-2012, 07:59 PM
  #802
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Yeah, Roids aside, he's not worth it. Dipoto's second off-season isn't looking too good. Last season he had already at least gotten rid of Mathis. I just hope he's not waiting for another blockbuster contract to fall in his lap. He's going to actually have to work to get this team back in shape this time.

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11-14-2012, 09:16 PM
  #803
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Originally Posted by DarthYenik View Post
Yeah, Roids aside, he's not worth it. Dipoto's second off-season isn't looking too good. Last season he had already at least gotten rid of Mathis. I just hope he's not waiting for another blockbuster contract to fall in his lap. He's going to actually have to work to get this team back in shape this time.
The offseason has been in effect for like two weeks and it's already not looking good. Ok then. Players report in three or four months, there's a lot of time for moves.

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11-14-2012, 11:19 PM
  #804
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The Statistical case against cabrera

Nate Silver agrees with us.

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11-15-2012, 01:07 AM
  #805
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angels aren't looking to good.....relying on trumbo and bourjos to hit? haven't addressed 3b....looks like Pujols was a moneygrab by Arte...

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11-15-2012, 01:27 AM
  #806
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The offseason has been in effect for like two weeks and it's already not looking good. Ok then. Players report in three or four months, there's a lot of time for moves.
We don't have huge contracts attached to inconsistencies with Haren and Santana any longer. We also don't have Torii's contract to worry about, thus solidifying that Borjous will be in the outfield and in the lineup. The team just shredded around $40 million. That's money that can be used on Greinke and bullpen help.

We actually are in the running for a Japanese closer named Kyuji Fujikawa, Japan's top reliever for the past five to six years. He's an international FA, thus no posting fee required. Also in the running for his services are the Red Sox and Rangers. Another helpful tidbit for the Angels was when Dipoto was the GM for the Diamondbacks, he was scouting in Japan for 30 days for about five years. So there may be some connection there that may help us land this guy!

We are in the running for Greinke. Our needs are starting pitching as well as bullpen help. No, we have not done anything to add to our club yet, but it's good to know where our intentions lie.

Anyhow, most of the big name sign during the winter meetings. That's how we grabbed both CJ Wilson and Pujols.

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11-15-2012, 07:24 PM
  #807
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11-15-2012, 08:08 PM
  #808
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Originally Posted by DarthYenik View Post
ahahahhahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahhaha

I knew Trout wouldn't win it after so many pundits kept pulling for Cabrera. I guess no one read the rules for picking an MVP and they keep on saying that Cabrera's been good for so long, but the award is only for this season. It's simply sad to know how terribly Trout was robbed. Heck, he got one third place vote. How bad is that?! Some writer from Baltimore voted for that. Terrible.

MVP means best offense. WTF? That's the silver slugger award. MVP means offense and defense. Hell, it didn't include base running as part of concluding who the MVP could be. grr.

efff this. I hope Mike puts us on his back next season, earns a triple crown from lead off position, and a championship!

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11-15-2012, 08:15 PM
  #809
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BTW, adding salt to the injury, an OC Register writer had a vote in the AL MVP race and he voted for Cabrera. ::: shaking head and palm in face ::: Does Mark Whicker not cover Angels baseball to witness the greatness that Trout produced this season alone?! Did he not notice how terrible the Angels were to start the season without Trout and then end up with a better record than Detroit at the end of the season?! ::::BTW OC means Orange County for those not in southern california. Anaheim is in orange county ::::

This is terrible! This is like reading how many of those who voted for Perry's MVP Hart trophy, one of them who did not was an OC Register member.

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11-15-2012, 09:17 PM
  #810
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The OCR writers are morons. Plunkett voted for Weaver above Verander in the Cy. It makes me sad that idiots get jobs that allow them to be heard by the public masses.

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11-15-2012, 10:31 PM
  #811
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The OCR writers are morons. Plunkett voted for Weaver above Verander in the Cy. It makes me sad that idiots get jobs that allow them to be heard by the public masses.
I don't think a writer should automatically vote for the local player if he's a finalist. That's just as bad as voting against Trout because you have something against Sabremetrics, and want to use 1920s logic to judge players.

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11-16-2012, 02:41 AM
  #812
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The OCR writers are morons. Plunkett voted for Weaver above Verander in the Cy. It makes me sad that idiots get jobs that allow them to be heard by the public masses.
Whicker voted for Cabrera over Trout, fwiw.

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11-16-2012, 03:47 AM
  #813
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the writers are idiots, triple crown is three stats, Cabrera is an awful defender, Trout is elite, Trout's WAR rivaled prime Barry Bonds.......PRIME BONDS 10 YEARS AGO, Trout when he gets on base is essentially in scoring position every time! Trouts team also won more games, it's not his fault Detroit played in a bad division

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11-16-2012, 12:27 PM
  #814
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Originally Posted by Hampeus View Post
Whicker voted for Cabrera over Trout, fwiw.
I know, I was just giving another example of why I think a lot of the writers there are morons.

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11-16-2012, 12:46 PM
  #815
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I was going to interject my comments, but it looks like they were covered already. Whicker is a fool, and so are most of the writers that don't know **** about statistics.

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11-16-2012, 02:03 PM
  #816
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The thing that pisses me off is that these old farts and people that can't do 1st grade math that are claiming that you need a obscure stats to make Trout's case for MVP. And then they make it about old school stats vs new school stats, but they call it them vs "Stat geeks". They make it about something that's not what it should be. It should be who is the best player, but just like politics they choose a party and pick their poster boy. It hurts the game way more than OPS and WAR.

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11-16-2012, 03:10 PM
  #817
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I was watching ESPN's Mike & Mike in the Morning show and they both picked Cabrera. The main reason why they picked Cabrera was what he did in September; also stating the September wins matter more than earlier months. So winning the Triple Crown and going to the playoffs as a Divisional Title winner matter more over the context of the season. Mike, not Golic, stated that Cabrera put his team on his back for 161 games. He also stated that you have to watch the games, not just simply watch the stats.

Let's pick apart his argument and say he loses context as did most people who voted for Cabrera. (Now, I know it's over and I'm not talking to all the Cabrera people at all, but maybe it can give other baseball fans some more insight. Granted, I'm a lowly poster on a hockey forum when compared to Mike & Mike, but here's a couple more of my cents, though it may not be worth it day after day the way the economy is sliding.)

Overall Standings
teamwins losses Wining PCT
Angels
89
73
0.549
Tigers
88
74
0.543

Clearly, the Angels have a better record. Now, let's address the whole September-October games that have more meaning.
Sept-October Standings
teamwins losses Wining PCT
Angels
19
11
0.633
Tigers
18
13
0.581

Based upon the team September-October standings, we can see that the Angels had a much better winning percentage than the Tigers. Btw, the Angels swept the Tigers in September. Now, let's look at some stats that Mike and other pundits like to put out September: (HR-Home Runs, RBIs- Runs Batted In, BA - Batting Average)

September Performance
PlayerHRsRBIsBA
Cabrera
10
27
0.308
Trout
5
6
0.257
|
As you can see, based upon those September stats that Miguel looks great. Now, put into context that Miguel Cabrera is batting third with slugging Prince Fielder behind him whereas Trout is a leadoff hitter. Just from that stat alone you can see that Trout has 5 HRs with only 6 RBIs. The result is a +1 RBI outside his HR. That means players are not getting on base for Trout to knock in for RBI stats because the players before him are the #7,8, and 9 hitters, who are the worst hitters on the team. Compare that to Cabrera's 10 HRs with 27 RBIs. That's a + 17 RBI outside his HR. Again, Trout is penalized for being a lead off hitter.

But I want to look at a fuller context for September stats that focus on power hitting, which Trout is, but isn't his role for his team as Trout is the lead off hitter.
PlayerAt BatsHitsRunsWalksHits + BB
Cabrera
104
32
22
13
45
Trout
101
26
21
20
46

Even though Trout may have had a bad BA for September, his job is to get on base as a lead off hitter and you can tell he got on base a tick more than Cabrera. And that's with three less at bats because the Angels played one less game than the Tigers in September. Also missing from all these September stats are fielding stats where Trout does make a huge factor, but apparently lots of people think MVP only matters in RBIs and HRs coming from a LEADOFF hitter.

Anyhow, most stats compare Trout to a power hitter in his situation. Let's look at the converse of that and compare Cabrera to a leadoff hitter situation, Trout's position.
2012 Leadoff inning situation
PlayerAt Bats Hits Runs HRs RBIsWalksBAOBP
Cabrera
106
33
8
7
7
6
0.311
0.348
Trout
223
76
11
11
11
17
0.341
0.398

Now, if pundits can simply say that one month can swing their vote, then using this stat and comparing the big numbers that pundits love in HRs, RBIs, and BA, then we can see that Trout wins hands down. I know Cabrera has over 100 less ABs than Trout, but can Cabrera survive as a leadoff man? Look at this batting average (BA) and it is significantly less than Trout. Put Cabrera on Trout's level and Cabrera can't touch what Trout does for his team. OBP is on base percentage which is the rate a player gets on base. Trout, again, is there at a higher rate than Cabrera.

So any pundit that say, "it's not only about stats, but you have to watch the games." I don't comprehend them because during that September when Trout wasn't getting any hits for a few games, sometimes going 0 for 3, Trout will still end up with a steal or a run or two because of the walks and his speed. It is very foolish for pundits to place the MVP race due to September. If Trout was here all 162 games and used the rate that with Trout with the Angels, then Trout and the Angels may be a playoff team and possibly a Division winner. But that terrible beginning for the Angels, 6 - 14, really mattered down the stretch that Super Mike could not overcome. A guy name Nate Silver wrote a wonderful article that exposes Cabrera to be not so MVP to his team.

blahahahaldhflasjf al;sjf asl;kj fas Bring on the winter meetings already. I need hockey to start already so I don't overthink this baseball things.

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Old
11-16-2012, 04:37 PM
  #818
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Originally Posted by DarthYenik View Post
The thing that pisses me off is that these old farts and people that can't do 1st grade math that are claiming that you need a obscure stats to make Trout's case for MVP. And then they make it about old school stats vs new school stats, but they call it them vs "Stat geeks". They make it about something that's not what it should be. It should be who is the best player, but just like politics they choose a party and pick their poster boy. It hurts the game way more than OPS and WAR.
What's funny is simply watching the games you can see who the better player is. Cabrera hits for more power, that's the only thing he does better.....i hate these idiots putting so much weight into RBI, FFS if Trout batted 3rd or 4th he'd be driving in 100+ easily

I view these old guys like the neo cons where they refuse to adapt and accept reality. WAR is not obscure, WAR is probably the best single stat to evaluate a player because it takes so much into consideration......meh whatever, I was reading an interview Trout did, and he felt he should win the MVP, that tells me he is going to have a great winter because he's going to feel like he got robbed.

I say .340/.410/.600 with 70 steals next year for him

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11-16-2012, 05:14 PM
  #819
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He probably would've won MVP if he hit for just .005 more.

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11-16-2012, 05:16 PM
  #820
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I say .340/.410/.600 with 70 steals next year for him
That, and I'd also like to add that I think his OPS will be >1.000, and he'll hit 35+ HRs 110+ RBI (in leadoff).

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11-16-2012, 05:54 PM
  #821
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110 RBIs in the leadoff spot is an extremely difficult feat to achieve. That requires the majority of our 7-8-9 hitters to get on base, and seeing that none of them last year had an average > .250 or high OBP, it makes it hard for Trout to bring them home no matter how well he is hitting.

I think a realistic statline for Trout would be:

.330/.410/.600/35HR/95RBI/55 Steals

And though he is typically thought of a prototype leadoff hitter, I think he would excel much greater offensively in the 2nd spot of the lineup ahead of Albert. His runs scored could possibly decrease, but his RBI totals would increase (assuming we can get a stable leadoff hitter in that lead role).

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11-16-2012, 06:54 PM
  #822
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I think Trout is more dangerous as lead off if Pujols is batting third. Some of his singles he can beat out, but it leaves whoever's on first base while he's batting would be sacrificed. Trout getting on base sets the team's tone. Also, if Trout steals second base or gets to second base on a single, then he is less likely to get into a double play.

There is a hole that needs to be filled at the 2 spot. We need a Kendrick, Aybar, or Fleet Pete to produce at that spot. Also, I hope our catcher spot improves offensively.

As for the RBI stat... that matters if you're a #3 or #4, clean-up, hitter. Runs is what matters more if you're a table setter.

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11-19-2012, 01:06 AM
  #823
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Originally Posted by c4rcy View Post
110 RBIs in the leadoff spot is an extremely difficult feat to achieve. That requires the majority of our 7-8-9 hitters to get on base, and seeing that none of them last year had an average > .250 or high OBP, it makes it hard for Trout to bring them home no matter how well he is hitting.

I think a realistic statline for Trout would be:

.330/.410/.600/35HR/95RBI/55 Steals

And though he is typically thought of a prototype leadoff hitter, I think he would excel much greater offensively in the 2nd spot of the lineup ahead of Albert. His runs scored could possibly decrease, but his RBI totals would increase (assuming we can get a stable leadoff hitter in that lead role).
I would much prefer Trout be a 2 or a 3 hitter soon, he'd help us score more runs because he'd be getting on base for albert and also driving others in as well

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11-19-2012, 04:01 PM
  #824
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I would much prefer Trout be a 2 or a 3 hitter soon, he'd help us score more runs because he'd be getting on base for albert and also driving others in as well
I think Trout will eventually become a clean up hitter once his swing becomes more consistent and once he gets man muscles fully developed. No one thought he would hit 30 homers this year! I thought Trout would be Peter Borjous, but with a little more pop. He's superseded that thought. Yet, when we look at our current roster, we don't have a viable leadoff hitter outside of Trout. We've been trying for a couple of years and nada. Fleet Pete has been designated to be 7,8, or 9 hitter. My hopes is he can slide into that #2 slot. When Torii was put into a #2 slot, his job was to put the ball in play, not to hit to be the savior. That change in mentality made him become a better hitter because he doesn't have to carry the team, in a sense.

As much as I'd like to see Trout in the #2 or clean up spot, he's much scarier as a leadoff hitter in the first inning. Trout sets a tone once he gets on base by either hitting or walking onto a base. And then if he does get on base, then he gets into the pitcher's head as to when he could or might steal a base. If the team can score in the first inning, then it will relax our pitcher.

There's no real need to change what works until you find some other player that can work in Trout's place in the batting line up.

I read online a rumor that the Royals maybe dumping some of their talent. I doubt that they would since they have a nice collection of youngsters, but 3B Moustakas is rumored to be shopped around. From what I hear is a starting pitcher. My head slumped when I tried to look further into it. I wonder if we can package any other deal, but KC is stacked with high profile prospects and we got nada.

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11-19-2012, 04:17 PM
  #825
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Seeing how our pitching depth in our pitching has been depleted, the Angels can shore it up via FA by tying to sign an 18 year old japanese pitcher, Shohei Otani. There's only two ways to sign asian players without a posting fee to negotiate for their rights: wait until they become FA's from the japanese league a la almost every japanese player we've seen from Ichiro Suzuki to Yu Darvish, or get the player before he enters the japanese league. I think this kid hasn't played in the japanese league to be contracted into that long term contract and NA teams can avoid a posting fee. The only problem is how well scouted is this kid and how much are you willing to sign him for.

I know Dipoto has scouted in Japan when he was with the diamondbacks and has plans to sign one of the best relievers in Japan for the past four to five years. If he's able to sign this reliever, Kyuji Fujikawa, then maybe he might have some insight into this youngster Otani and possibly get him into our system.

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