My concern with Hamilton has more to do with the contract it probably takes to get him, then his ability.
I agree. I would rather go in the direction of Angel Pagan and BJ Upton. Or trade for Peter Bourjos and if we want a big splash trade for Justin Upton. Angel in center and BJ in right would be sweet. That leaves a 3rd baseman and our eight inning guy. It's time to pull the plug on Dom Brown.
The Phillies actually didn't strike out that much in relation to the rest of the league- 4th fewest. Only Cleveland, Minnesota, and KC had fewer (some of the worst teams in the league). It's partly because they don't walk and get deep into counts. And strikeouts aren't as bad as people make them out to be. Seven of the top ten teams in strikeouts were playoff caliber teams. With strikeouts generally comes production- RBIs and walks (there are exceptions). Now you can't have a team loaded with strikeout guys, but 2 or 3 isn't always bad.
As far as him not getting on base, I mentioned this in a post a few months ago, but BJ Upton has one of the strangest careers you will ever see from year-to-year. He's had two .380+ OBP seasons and hasn't been close since. Will he ever get there again? Probably not because his batting average on balls in play hasn't been anywhere close to those seasons, but he's not a sub .300 OBP guy either. His walk rate dipped to a career low 7% last year. His career rate is almost 11%. It's pretty obvious he changed his approach last year. I think you can expect him to get closer to his career rate than last seasons rate. He also provides the threat on the bases that we lack without Victorino. He's a pretty good fielder with a cannon of an arm and he's supposedly in the prime of his career.
As far as CF options, there aren't as many as people think. Hamilton isn't a long term CF option. Cody Ross and Melky Cabrera aren't CF's. That leaves Bourn, Upton, Victorino, and Pagan.
Strike outs aren't horrible because they're better than grounding into a double play, and you can strike out a lot and still get on base a lot. However, when speed is a big part of your game it's usually better to put the ball in play than to not. The point remains though that he's another guy that does not get on base. His past 4 years he's had an average .316 OBP. That's just not good enough.
He's pretty much a guy who made a big splash with what appears to be luck. He had a .393 BABIP in the first season where he had a good OBP, and then a 15% walk rate in the next. Those 2 seasons, 07 and 08, were the only time he's had a good OBP in his career. We really need someone who gets on base consistently. It looks like maybe Utley could be that guy again, but I don't know.
I don't think Upton is a good enough player to spend FA money on. Victorino is a better player, or at least he's been the better player for the past several years. If my choice is between abstaining from a free agent CF, and another bad contract, I think I'm on the abstaining side at this point.
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Originally Posted by Hockeypete49
I agree. I would rather go in the direction of Angel Pagan and BJ Upton. Or trade for Peter Bourjos and if we want a big splash trade for Justin Upton. Angel in center and BJ in right would be sweet. That leaves a 3rd baseman and our eight inning guy. It's time to pull the plug on Dom Brown.
That seems like an interesting option depending on what it would take. I'm not in favor of trading away more young talent, but I don't think it would take much to get him, and he is still young. Again he's someone who doesn't get on base, but he also wouldn't be attached to a potentially bad contract. He's also supposed to be ridiculously good defensively.
The Phillies actually didn't strike out that much in relation to the rest of the league- 4th fewest. Only Cleveland, Minnesota, and KC had fewer (some of the worst teams in the league). It's partly because they don't walk and get deep into counts. And strikeouts aren't as bad as people make them out to be. Seven of the top ten teams in strikeouts were playoff caliber teams. With strikeouts generally comes production- RBIs and walks (there are exceptions). Now you can't have a team loaded with strikeout guys, but 2 or 3 isn't always bad.
As far as him not getting on base, I mentioned this in a post a few months ago, but BJ Upton has one of the strangest careers you will ever see from year-to-year. He's had two .380+ OBP seasons and hasn't been close since. Will he ever get there again? Probably not because his batting average on balls in play hasn't been anywhere close to those seasons, but he's not a sub .300 OBP guy either. His walk rate dipped to a career low 7% last year. His career rate is almost 11%. It's pretty obvious he changed his approach last year. I think you can expect him to get closer to his career rate than last seasons rate. He also provides the threat on the bases that we lack without Victorino. He's a pretty good fielder with a cannon of an arm and he's supposedly in the prime of his career.
As far as CF options, there aren't as many as people think. Hamilton isn't a long term CF option. Cody Ross and Melky Cabrera aren't CF's. That leaves Bourn, Upton, Victorino, and Pagan.
Even if you swing and strike out, you at least swung at the ball to try to do something with it instead of just watching it or doing nothing... unless that's the wrong kind of thinking?
I agree. I would rather go in the direction of Angel Pagan and BJ Upton. Or trade for Peter Bourjos and if we want a big splash trade for Justin Upton. Angel in center and BJ in right would be sweet. That leaves a 3rd baseman and our eight inning guy. It's time to pull the plug on Dom Brown.
I don't get it though, is Upton THAT much of an upgrade over Dom Brown? I'm not against Upton in center field, because he's an obvious upgrade there and a RH power bat is needed in the 5 hole. Now I don't watch a ton of Rays baseball, but I'm not sold on pulling the plug on Brown.
When Upton was 25 he had 3 full seasons under his belt, and his #s were .237 .322 .424, with 18hrs and 62 RBIs. I think Dom Brown is perfectly capable of producing similar numbers over a full season, but regardless I think it's important that the Phillies give him an entire season.
Strike outs aren't horrible because they're better than grounding into a double play, and you can strike out a lot and still get on base a lot. However, when speed is a big part of your game it's usually better to put the ball in play than to not. The point remains though that he's another guy that does not get on base. His past 4 years he's had an average .316 OBP. That's just not good enough.
I don't really believe in fast guys should put the ball in play too much. These are big league players. They can make defensive plays no matter who is running. Would he get a few more hits a season if he hit to contact? Sure, but you can bet his power numbers would suffer as well and that's what makes him a valuable player. I believe last year was an outlier in regards to his OBP. He's more likely to be a .330 OBP guy once he gets away from Tropicana. In a day in age where .319 is the major league average, I'll take that with everything else he does. And not that I agree with it but this organization doesn't value OBP too highly for whatever reason.
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He's pretty much a guy who made a big splash with what appears to be luck. He had a .393 BABIP in the first season where he had a good OBP, and then a 15% walk rate in the next. Those 2 seasons, 07 and 08, were the only time he's had a good OBP in his career. We really need someone who gets on base consistently. It looks like maybe Utley could be that guy again, but I don't know.
I know he got 'lucky' his first two seasons with average, but a 15% walk rate over 640 plate appearances is no fluke. His hitting coach those two years just happened to be Steve Henderson. Coincidence? Maybe, but I bet he had something to do with his approach during the two best seasons of his career.
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I don't think Upton is a good enough player to spend FA money on. Victorino is a better player, or at least he's been the better player for the past several years. If my choice is between abstaining from a free agent CF, and another bad contract, I think I'm on the abstaining side at this point.
I think he is. Call me crazy but I have a hunch that he would be good here. The most intriguing things about Upton is that he is the youngest of the FA's, has prime years left, will be cheaper than Bourn and Hamilton, and has supreme tools. He's had two huge seasons (albeit 4 seasons ago) that match his tools. I believe this team with Charlie and Henderson can get his approach back to where it needs to be. Again call me crazy, but I have a hunch that Upton would be good here.
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That seems like an interesting option depending on what it would take. I'm not in favor of trading away more young talent, but I don't think it would take much to get him, and he is still young. Again he's someone who doesn't get on base, but he also wouldn't be attached to a potentially bad contract. He's also supposed to be ridiculously good defensively.
Bourjos is a nice player that is arguably the best defensive CF in the league. I would like to add him in a perfect world and spend money elsewhere, but I'm afraid their asking price would be too high. He's kind of an empty hitter though. All average, doesn't walk too much, strikes out a lot for the type of player he is, not a ton of pop. He's like a 7-8 hitter in the NL (Charlie would probably hit him 2nd) which is a tough spot to display your speed on the bases. I wouldn't hate the move but I fear the cost.
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Originally Posted by SolidSnakeUS
Even if you swing and strike out, you at least swung at the ball to try to do something with it instead of just watching it or doing nothing... unless that's the wrong kind of thinking?
Not sure what you are trying the say? Generally when a guy strikes out a lot, he is productive somewhere else. Power hitters that strikeout a lot usually drive in a lot of runs (Howard, Granderson, Chris Davis). And then you have guys that strikeout a lot because they take a lot of pitches and get deep into the count (Dunn, Pena, Uggla). Of course their are some exceptions like Drew Stubbs and Danny Espinosa who didn't do a whole lot of either last year, but even those guys have power.
I don't really believe in fast guys should put the ball in play too much. These are big league players. They can make defensive plays no matter who is running. Would he get a few more hits a season if he hit to contact? Sure, but you can bet his power numbers would suffer as well and that's what makes him a valuable player. I believe last year was an outlier in regards to his OBP. He's more likely to be a .330 OBP guy once he gets away from Tropicana. In a day in age where .319 is the major league average, I'll take that with everything else he does. And not that I agree with it but this organization doesn't value OBP too highly for whatever reason.
I know he got 'lucky' his first two seasons with average, but a 15% walk rate over 640 plate appearances is no fluke. His hitting coach those two years just happened to be Steve Henderson. Coincidence? Maybe, but I bet he had something to do with his approach during the two best seasons of his career.
I think he is. Call me crazy but I have a hunch that he would be good here. The most intriguing things about Upton is that he is the youngest of the FA's, has prime years left, will be cheaper than Bourn and Hamilton, and has supreme tools. He's had two huge seasons (albeit 4 seasons ago) that match his tools. I believe this team with Charlie and Henderson can get his approach back to where it needs to be. Again call me crazy, but I have a hunch that Upton would be good here.
Bourjos is a nice player that is arguably the best defensive CF in the league. I would like to add him in a perfect world and spend money elsewhere, but I'm afraid their asking price would be too high. He's kind of an empty hitter though. All average, doesn't walk too much, strikes out a lot for the type of player he is, not a ton of pop. He's like a 7-8 hitter in the NL (Charlie would probably hit him 2nd) which is a tough spot to display your speed on the bases. I wouldn't hate the move but I fear the cost.
Not sure what you are trying the say? Generally when a guy strikes out a lot, he is productive somewhere else. Power hitters that strikeout a lot usually drive in a lot of runs (Howard, Granderson, Chris Davis). And then you have guys that strikeout a lot because they take a lot of pitches and get deep into the count (Dunn, Pena, Uggla). Of course their are some exceptions like Drew Stubbs and Danny Espinosa who didn't do a whole lot of either last year, but even those guys have power.
What I meant was, most strike outs are when the guy swings at the ball, and even you jump the gun a little bit and strike out, you have a better chance of doing something offensively than just watching every pitch go by. Whatever haha.
Overall though, I don't know who'd I'd really want in center. It would either be Upton, Hamilton or Bourn. Hamilton would be amazing, but it can't be for too long.
When Upton was 25 he had 3 full seasons under his belt, and his #s were .237 .322 .424, with 18hrs and 62 RBIs. I think Dom Brown is perfectly capable of producing similar numbers over a full season, but regardless I think it's important that the Phillies give him an entire season.
You picked the worst season of his career. He had two big years before that. I'm not ready to pull the plug on Dom Brown, but he didn't exactly give management a reason to not got out and get someone else. He showed glimpses that he was ready, but could never really stretch together a good run of ABs. Granted he might have been hurt, but it seems this team is in win now mode and can't wait for him. This is really his make or break season. He needs to get healthy and iron out some mechanical flaws in his swing. Hopefully Joyner, Henderson, and Chuck can get him going.
What I meant was, most strike outs are when the guy swings at the ball, and even you jump the gun a little bit and strike out, you have a better chance of doing something offensively than just watching every pitch go by. Whatever haha.
Overall though, I don't know who'd I'd really want in center. It would either be Upton, Hamilton or Bourn. Hamilton would be amazing, but it can't be for too long.
Hamilton's a terrible center fielder. Bourn is the best of the group (and one of the best in the league), but will cost a lot and is 30. And then you have Pagan as a cheaper option. Victorino is the only other CF on the market.
Hamilton's a terrible center fielder. Bourn is the best of the group (and one of the best in the league), but will cost a lot and is 30. And then you have Pagan as a cheaper option. Victorino is the only other CF on the market.
Honestly, I'm really meh about Victorino coming back. Pagan... maybe I just haven't watched enough of him? The thing is, we do have potential big time hitters in the OF in Brown and Ruf, and then throw in Howard as well and that comes out to three big time hitters... hmmm... Still don't know how Utley will pan out. Hopefully all of his little niggles and whatnot are out of his system and back to form (or at least 95%).
I don't really believe in fast guys should put the ball in play too much. These are big league players. They can make defensive plays no matter who is running. Would he get a few more hits a season if he hit to contact? Sure, but you can bet his power numbers would suffer as well and that's what makes him a valuable player. I believe last year was an outlier in regards to his OBP. He's more likely to be a .330 OBP guy once he gets away from Tropicana. In a day in age where .319 is the major league average, I'll take that with everything else he does. And not that I agree with it but this organization doesn't value OBP too highly for whatever reason.
I know he got 'lucky' his first two seasons with average, but a 15% walk rate over 640 plate appearances is no fluke. His hitting coach those two years just happened to be Steve Henderson. Coincidence? Maybe, but I bet he had something to do with his approach during the two best seasons of his career.
I think he is. Call me crazy but I have a hunch that he would be good here. The most intriguing things about Upton is that he is the youngest of the FA's, has prime years left, will be cheaper than Bourn and Hamilton, and has supreme tools. He's had two huge seasons (albeit 4 seasons ago) that match his tools. I believe this team with Charlie and Henderson can get his approach back to where it needs to be. Again call me crazy, but I have a hunch that Upton would be good here.
Bourjos is a nice player that is arguably the best defensive CF in the league. I would like to add him in a perfect world and spend money elsewhere, but I'm afraid their asking price would be too high. He's kind of an empty hitter though. All average, doesn't walk too much, strikes out a lot for the type of player he is, not a ton of pop. He's like a 7-8 hitter in the NL (Charlie would probably hit him 2nd) which is a tough spot to display your speed on the bases. I wouldn't hate the move but I fear the cost.
Not sure what you are trying the say? Generally when a guy strikes out a lot, he is productive somewhere else. Power hitters that strikeout a lot usually drive in a lot of runs (Howard, Granderson, Chris Davis). And then you have guys that strikeout a lot because they take a lot of pitches and get deep into the count (Dunn, Pena, Uggla). Of course their are some exceptions like Drew Stubbs and Danny Espinosa who didn't do a whole lot of either last year, but even those guys have power.
Ok, you're crazy lol.
I don't know, I don't really see it. His home/away splits a basically dead even, including his power numbers. To me he's a guy who had one huge year, that happened to be his first full season in the majors. I think he's been living off that first impression for a while now. He's got solid power, and is a decent fielder, but I don't think he's the guy you invest in.
He's only hit .330 OBP once the past 4 years, and I kind of think the 15% walk rate was a fluke since he hasn't really gotten close to that number again. Maybe you're right, and maybe the hitting coach would help and he'd be a very good player here. I'm just not in favor of taking that gamble with our current contract situation.
I don't know, I don't really see it. His home/away splits a basically dead even, including his power numbers. To me he's a guy who had one huge year, that happened to be his first full season in the majors. I think he's been living off that first impression for a while now. He's got solid power, and is a decent fielder, but I don't think he's the guy you invest in.
He's only hit .330 OBP once the past 4 years, and I kind of think the 15% walk rate was a fluke since he hasn't really gotten close to that number again. Maybe you're right, and maybe the hitting coach would help and he'd be a very good player here. I'm just not in favor of taking that gamble with our current contract situation.
Well part of the reason Upton intrigues me as I said is because he would be [presumably] cheaper than Hamilton and Bourn. Now if we get into a bidding war, and overpay, that kind of takes away from his luster. But if Atlanta's letting Bourn walk and going after Upton, he must be more affordable.
I'm on the Upton and Hamilton train. If we are going to give up our 1st round pick, we might as well get two FA's out of it. Plus, I don't pay the bills.
Well part of the reason Upton intrigues me as I said is because he would be [presumably] cheaper than Hamilton and Bourn. Now if we get into a bidding war, and overpay, that kind of takes away from his luster. But if Atlanta's letting Bourn walk and going after Upton, he must be more affordable.
That's true. If he's going to be cheap I wouldn't mind, but I'm thinking he's just going to be less expensive than Bourn. I'm also thinking next year is going to be similar to last year, and I don't mind getting no one because I'm not expecting anything except for a fire sale mid season.
The team could still compete, but I don't see any reason to think they won't be killed by injuries and inconsistency again.
You picked the worst season of his career. He had two big years before that. I'm not ready to pull the plug on Dom Brown, but he didn't exactly give management a reason to not got out and get someone else. He showed glimpses that he was ready, but could never really stretch together a good run of ABs. Granted he might have been hurt, but it seems this team is in win now mode and can't wait for him. This is really his make or break season. He needs to get healthy and iron out some mechanical flaws in his swing. Hopefully Joyner, Henderson, and Chuck can get him going.
24 was the worst season of his career IMO, it's the only season he had an OPS <.700 However, looking at Upton's last 3 years they're all fairly similar. his 3 year average puts his OBP at .317 His Slugging at .436 and his BA at .242. Obviously that's a much bigger sample size than Dom Brown's last 3 years, so while Upton hits for more power those other two numbers are almost identical.
Again I'm all for BJ Upton in center field, I'm just confused by how somebody could be high on Upton and low on Brown.
That's true. If he's going to be cheap I wouldn't mind, but I'm thinking he's just going to be less expensive than Bourn. I'm also thinking next year is going to be similar to last year, and I don't mind getting no one because I'm not expecting anything except for a fire sale mid season.
The team could still compete, but I don't see any reason to think they won't be killed by injuries and inconsistency again.
Yeah I too think this team is a little passed its prime, but Amaro's job is on the line and I have no reason to believe they won't go full 'win now' mode.
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Originally Posted by McNasty
24 was the worst season of his career IMO, it's the only season he had an OPS <.700 However, looking at Upton's last 3 years they're all fairly similar. his 3 year average puts his OBP at .317 His Slugging at .436 and his BA at .242. Obviously that's a much bigger sample size than Dom Brown's last 3 years, so while Upton hits for more power those other two numbers are almost identical.
Again I'm all for BJ Upton in center field, I'm just confused by how somebody could be high on Upton and low on Brown.
Yes 24 was his worst season, but my point was he had two seasons prior to that year where he was one of the most productive players in the league. Dom is still riding on his 'top prospect' status. He has done nothing in the bigs to warrant a full-time spot. Also forgotten is BJ plays a premium position at a pretty high level. Dom Brown is a corner outfielder (that has struggled defensively) and therefore needs to produce with the bat to provide value. Not to mention baserunning. Upton accounts for a lot more runs on the bases than Brown ever will.
I don't know if you are referring to me as being low on Brown, but I actually think he can be productive in this league. You can see it from time to time, its just that he lacks consistency. On a rebuilding team, Brown would no doubt be starting, but with the win now mentality I don't know if he's guaranteed a spot. I hope he gets a shot because with a few mechanical adjustments this guy could be a good big league hitter. He's got the approach down, his swing just has a few kinks in it. Injuries are also holding him back.
Papelbon is twice the closer that Madsen is/was, plus he's younger. You still don't know if Madsen can be a closer since he was highly incosistent in the role, and now with his injury, you don't know if he'll ever be the same again. If Amaro had waited out the market and got Madsen for the 1 year, in addition to not having a closer all season last year, the Phils would need to get a closer this year as well fill all the other positions. Your best option would at closer this year would be Rafael Soriano who made 11M last year so you're not gonna be saving much money (Papelbon makes 13M).
Papelbon had a good year last year. I know his contract is a tad harsh, but do you really think he was bad?
Not at all.
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Originally Posted by Snotbubbles
Papelbon is twice the closer that Madsen is/was, plus he's younger. You still don't know if Madsen can be a closer since he was highly incosistent in the role, and now with his injury, you don't know if he'll ever be the same again. If Amaro had waited out the market and got Madsen for the 1 year, in addition to not having a closer all season last year, the Phils would need to get a closer this year as well fill all the other positions. Your best option would at closer this year would be Rafael Soriano who made 11M last year so you're not gonna be saving much money (Papelbon makes 13M).
I'm not sure I agree with your assessment of Madsen. He was very good for us in his last year here and was a top reliever as a setup man before that. He struggled earlier in his career as a closer but that appeared to be behind him.
I guess this is more about your philosophy on 1) long term contracts in general 2) long term contracts on relievers and 3) the value of a closer
I think any multi-year deal on a reliever and at that an older reliever should be avoided like the plague. I mean Papelbon is the highest paid reliever ever. That's crazy. I think we learned from the Lidge deal that even with a clean bill of health these things can blow up in your face quick.
And that risk might be more acceptable with a starter or a big hitter if like me you find the closer position ab it overrated. That's a LOT of money for someone that pitches what, 80 innings a year?
I like Papelbon, but I don't think the reliever and closer position needs that sort of expense and risk
Papelbon had a good year last year. I know his contract is a tad harsh, but do you really think he was bad?
He's contract is a little high but if the rest of bullpen could get him the ball more in the ninth he would be worth every penny. Interesting excerpt from a Yahoo article about the potential of Josh Hamilton to the Phils (http://sports.yahoo.com/news/josh-ha...GlvbnM-;_ylv=3)
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In 2011 when the Phillies won a franchise record 102 games, they scored 713 total runs while allowing only 529 (+184). In 2012 they scored 684 and allowed 680 (+4). While their run production only dropped 29 runs, they gave up 151 more. The culprit? The 8th Inning.
In the 8th inning alone, Phillies relief pitchers allowed 93 total runs over the course of the season, their highest of any inning. A lot of money was spent on Jonathan Papelbon in the offseason, but resulted in the loss of Ryan Madsen who had been as steady an 8th inning guy as any in the league. Perhaps their money would be better spent on re-signing Madsen instead of another bat.
We need really a set-up man to complement Pap. Did the Reds pick up their team option (1yr, 11mil or 3 mil buyout) on Madison. I love to bring him back for at least one more year. It would give Aumont another year to develop and maybe Bastardo can regain his form if 2011 wasn't just a fluke.
I agree. I would rather go in the direction of Angel Pagan and BJ Upton. Or trade for Peter Bourjos and if we want a big splash trade for Justin Upton. Angel in center and BJ in right would be sweet. That leaves a 3rd baseman and our eight inning guy. It's time to pull the plug on Dom Brown.
Just to make my point clear. I would only move Dom if it would better the team, in a trade. He is no longer an untouchable in my mind. You have to give if you want to get. I was really pissed when they moved my(at the time) favorite player, Rick Wise. But that deal worked out for us big time. Hot stove, if you are a baseball fan you have to love it.
He's contract is a little high but if the rest of bullpen could get him the ball more in the ninth he would be worth every penny. Interesting excerpt from a Yahoo article about the potential of Josh Hamilton to the Phils (http://sports.yahoo.com/news/josh-ha...GlvbnM-;_ylv=3)
We need really a set-up man to complement Pap. Did the Reds pick up their team option (1yr, 11mil or 3 mil buyout) on Madison. I love to bring him back for at least one more year. It would give Aumont another year to develop and maybe Bastardo can regain his form if 2011 wasn't just a fluke.
On the other hand, if Papelbon is our best reliever (he is), why can't we use him in high leverage situations before the 9th inning? I disagree with the mentality that this guy needs to sit there until we have a lead in the 9th. That's meaningless if by the time you get there you lost the lead.
I'd really like to see teams start using that high paid reliever in any critical moment of relief throughout the game. It's totally plausabile that you get the most out of him using him earlier in many cases. I.e. - heart of the line up in 8th or other team threatening to score in a close game in the 7th.
On the other hand, if Papelbon is our best reliever (he is), why can't we use him in high leverage situations before the 9th inning? I disagree with the mentality that this guy needs to sit there until we have a lead in the 9th. That's meaningless if by the time you get there you lost the lead.
I'd really like to see teams start using that high paid reliever in any critical moment of relief throughout the game. It's totally plausabile that you get the most out of him using him earlier in many cases. I.e. - heart of the line up in 8th or other team threatening to score in a close game in the 7th.
Did you see last year, how any time he was put into a non save situation, or in before the 9th inning. It's like he didn't even try.
Pap was absolutely brutal in non-save situations. I don't have numbers off the top of my head, but I recall a lot of games when they called on him in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game, only to see him give up the go ahead run(s). I'll venture to guess the large majority of runs he gave up were in these scenarios. He is a good closer though when the game is on the line. I think once in a while you can call on your closer for 3+ out saves but not over the course of an entire season. The innings just add up and could be costly at the end. That's why you need a reliable setup man. I like Papelbon the player, I just don't like the contract. I don't believe in giving relievers long term contracts especially 30+.
