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2012 CBA & Re-alignment: Lockout in Effect. Thanks Gary/Donald! PART II

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11-14-2012, 03:14 PM
  #701
Darth Vitale
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I think Mr. Burgundy is right. If the owners and Fehr truly pushed this into next season you'd be looking at a wholly different situation than at the end of the last lockout.

For starters, fans are already more pissed and able to communicate as a group about boycotts and things of that nature than the last time, because of social media. That is going to compound over time. There will be more and more people spouting negative publicity about the NHL and parties involved as we go, and it will start to catch on as people like Puck Daddy and others give them free advertising / links to a big audience. Especially if it's well into the summer and there's no end in sight. Fans are going to lose hope..

Second, if you can kill a whole season and show so little respect for fans that you move it into a consecutive season... you risk in a big way, permanently alienating a huge swath of the US fan base (to the tune of 30-40% of ticket buying and subscription buying fans IMO), and a significant portion of Canadian fans will stick to watching other leagues as well. Effectively you will kill hockey in the United States except at the lower levels. It would be a fan-base disaster IMO. MANY fans would say "**** off" and mean it. Just leave with an attitude of indifference. Because at that point you're truly being played for a fool.

I mean what self-respecting person keeps hanging on in a situation like that when there's so many other options for entertainment or useful things to do when passing time? I can guarantee 100% as it is now, I will not pay for tickets this year if they come back and will only pay for Center Ice if there's a "we're sorry fans" discount applied (say 40 or 50% off remaining games). If they went into next year, I would never buy another ticket, never subscribe again, never buy another piece of merchandise. I would watch what I could on free TV, do some fantasy hockey maybe and that's it. And there would be probably hundreds of thousands of fans just like me doing the same thing. And then another group that wouldn't even watch on free tv, driving ad revenues down and making it even less viable a sport.

To tell you the truth, if they go into next year and the NHL ends up folding because of financial collapse (losing money even after they come back), I wouldn't shed a tear that's for sure. F off. Let the players go where they want and if you start a new league it better be in real hockey markets only or I won't bother because we'll end up in the same place again.

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11-14-2012, 03:27 PM
  #702
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
To tell you the truth, if they go into next year and the NHL ends up folding because of financial collapse (losing money even after they come back), I wouldn't shed a tear that's for sure. F off. Let the players go where they want and if you start a new league it better be in real hockey markets only or I won't bother because we'll end up in the same place again.
Call it NHL 2. Would suck because every team would be different. Have a cap for it, keep it small. Goalie pads smaller, bring the fast hockey back, wider rinks (charge a bit more for tickets because 2 rows would be gone to make ice a little bigger for less dangerous hits and more room to move around), get rid of goons

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11-14-2012, 03:33 PM
  #703
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Folding? No way. The NHL made roughly 3 billion dollars last year. While I certainly think that they are going to lose fans from this lockout as they recede into more of a niche sport, hockey isn't going anywhere.

I'd be really interested in seeing a study done after the 04-05 lockout in terms of lost revenue the following season due to fans losing interest in the sport. I wonder how that compares to the money saved by the NHL from the new CBA

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11-14-2012, 06:01 PM
  #704
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I'm talking about if they lose parts of two consecutive seasons, they could lose a sufficient number of fans and advertisers to seriously jeopardize the league in non-Canadian markets. It's hard to over-estimate the resentment and even total indifference a lot of fans would feel at that point. It would basically amount to a zero respect for the fans move. Fans would go from "you're greedy" to "F me? FU!" IOW they would take it personally at that point, IMO. And they should because it is without question about respect at that point. Now you can argue oh it's just business and it will take a while... but by that time, that argument goes out the window and it becomes "these people don't give two ***** about us and they still think we're coming back! **** them!"

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11-14-2012, 06:46 PM
  #705
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Players should be smart enough to realize that their income is tied to success of the league via the salary cap. So I'd hope that they just won't be that friggen stupid to take this that far.... but in the world of Donald Fehr who knows what will happen.

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11-14-2012, 07:03 PM
  #706
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Originally Posted by Gooch View Post
Players should be smart enough to realize that their income is tied to success of the league via the salary cap. So I'd hope that they just won't be that friggen stupid to take this that far.... but in the world of Donald Fehr who knows what will happen.
If it stretches into two seasons hockey will be stricken from my vocabulary, and yet another sport killed for me by, Fehr. There are none left to kill though after this, sports are pretty much messed up beyond repair these days.

I'll have to start gaming again too my wife's dismay.

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11-15-2012, 11:09 AM
  #707
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So at this point, what with Fehr insisting on compensation from the owners for damage to revenues, I have completely given up hope they will play this season.

The question I ask myself then is, can Fehr sell the NHLPA this spring on getting a better deal if they don't sign till October, as I believe there is no chance at all the Players will actually risk losing games in another season, regardless of what their leadership tells them. I think Fehr is talented enough to pull this off BTW.

I also believe the Owners are obstinant, angry, and fully committed to "winning" this dispute.

So what does this all mean for our Pens? It has now become clear that the players will all lose a year off their contracts.

Cooke, Dupuise, & Adams will be free agents. Kennedy, Tangradi, Jeffrey, & Strait will be 6th year restricted free agents. Malkin, Letang & Kunitz will be in the last year of their contracts, about to be free agents. As will Orpik, Niskanen, England, & Vitale.

League revenues will likely be devistated for at least a couple years. The Pens will have 53 million committed to existing contracts, & 24 million the next season.

If we were not in "win now" mode, this would be just concerning. But I have no idea how Shero can keep this team together without bringing in a large amount of rookies, which will likely have a real negative impact on playoff performance.

It looks to me like the Pens could be one of the teams hurt bad by the Lockout.

Thoughts?

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11-15-2012, 01:14 PM
  #708
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Originally Posted by Gallatin View Post
It looks to me like the Pens could be one of the teams hurt bad by the Lockout.
Without even addressing the rest of your post at this time, the Pens are one of the most screwed team because we're losing a year of Sid, Geno, Letang, MAF, and now Neal, all of whom are in their prime. We're in win-now mode and we're one of the top teams and we lose a year where we're easily one of the top 3-5 teams in the league.

And the world is denied another year of Sid and Geno. Imagine Gretzky losing a year in the mid 80s. Lemieux lost half of one in the 90s but IIRC he was out of commission much of that year anyways.

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11-15-2012, 01:25 PM
  #709
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Without even addressing the rest of your post at this time, the Pens are one of the most screwed team because we're losing a year of Sid, Geno, Letang, MAF, and now Neal, all of whom are in their prime. We're in win-now mode and we're one of the top teams and we lose a year where we're easily one of the top 3-5 teams in the league.

And the world is denied another year of Sid and Geno. Imagine Gretzky losing a year in the mid 80s. Lemieux lost half of one in the 90s but IIRC he was out of commission much of that year anyways.
I figured as much myself, but since I believe this season is screwed, why not focus on the future.

Unfortunately the future looks bleak as well. For instance, what happens if Tangradi or Jeffrey break through next year? Resigning them could be near impossible if the cap is under 60 million as 3 players alone will take up 23 million even before we try to sign Malkin and Letang. Figure at least 15 mil for those two, and even at 60 mil you only have 22 mil left for the other 18 players....

If this scenario plays out, not trading Martin's 5 mil salary this summer could have a devistating effect, cause who's gonna want him after this economic disaster unfolds. We may need every one of those young cheap prospect defenseman come the 14/15 season.


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11-15-2012, 02:22 PM
  #710
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For me, the only thing that can save the season at this point is if the North American grinders, plugs, 3rd-paring/ 7th d-man types wake up and realize they are the majority and the ones hurt most severely by a missed season. There's no team in Switzerland or Sweden or anywhere that wants these types of foreign players with the rest of the NHL stars at their disposal, let alone touch the salaries they bring in from playing in the NHL.

It's going to take those types to come together and A) Call for a vote based on the most recent NHL proposal or B) oust Fehr or C) Start being much more vocal about their situations to their union "brothers" and what they want to happen. I cannot see a season happening unless something like that occurs.

I can't see any effing way the NHLPA will get a better deal next October than what they're currently being offered. If the lockout goes into next season, the NHL as we know it will be be drastically different whenever it starts up again.


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Old
11-15-2012, 05:52 PM
  #711
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yeah this lockout majorly screws the penguins. crosby has even more of a chance to get healthy, but we are missing prime years of literally all of the penguins good players. there is not one impact player that will be helped by this. there arent really any budding stars that will benefit from further seasoning (i guess maybe morrow).

terrible. i wonder how this lockout will affect resigning malkin.

if this season is wiped out, we literally have only one more definite season with crosby and malkin. that sucks.

at least they did win one cup.

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11-15-2012, 06:34 PM
  #712
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Originally Posted by Sivek View Post
For me, the only thing that can save the season at this point is if the North American grinders, plugs, 3rd-paring/ 7th d-man types wake up and realize they are the majority and the ones hurt most severely by a missed season. There's no team in Switzerland or Sweden or anywhere that wants these types of foreign players with the rest of the NHL stars at their disposal, let alone touch the salaries they bring in from playing in the NHL.

It's going to take those types to come together and A) Call for a vote based on the most recent NHL proposal or B) oust Fehr or C) Start being much more vocal about their situations to their union "brothers" and what they want they to happen. I cannot see a season happening unless something like that happens.

I can't see any effing way the NHLPA will get a better deal next October than what they're currently being offered. If the lockout goes into next season, the NHL as we know will be be drastically different whenever it starts up again.
Assuming this goes into next fall, you're damn right the players will get screwed. The Owners let up at the end of the last lockout, they will not this time.

The PA might be lucky to get 48%, no make whole, no long contracts, and free agency at 28 come next October. And that's 48% of a seriously damaged revenue stream, might not even get back to their 1.8 billion till the next CBA...

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11-15-2012, 10:33 PM
  #713
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Originally Posted by Gallatin View Post
I figured as much myself, but since I believe this season is screwed, why not focus on the future.

Unfortunately the future looks bleak as well. For instance, what happens if Tangradi or Jeffrey break through next year? Resigning them could be near impossible if the cap is under 60 million as 3 players alone will take up 23 million even before we try to sign Malkin and Letang. Figure at least 15 mil for those two, and even at 60 mil you only have 22 mil left for the other 18 players....

If this scenario plays out, not trading Martin's 5 mil salary this summer could have a devistating effect, cause who's gonna want him after this economic disaster unfolds. We may need every one of those young cheap prospect defenseman come the 14/15 season.
Your entire outlook is way too negative IMO.

Tangradi and Jeffrey both having break-through years? Huge assumption; about 20:1 either has a big season individually and a far bigger long shot that they both do great the same year. The very best odds are that neither will have a break-through season (offensively). They might improve but that's not the same thing as commanding big money. Re-signing them should not be a problem because they've never done anything to command a lot of money and one good (or one half of one good) season is not going to change that.

And no we're not going to play all our prospect D in 14/15. Insanity. Take a deep breath buddy... it's going to be OK (assuming we have a league in two years). If the Cap is low enough that we will struggle to sign both Malkin and Letang, Martin is gone, period. We will release him and eat his salary, if there are zero trade offers (someone would take Martin as a salary dump IMO; he's too good not to) and if keeping him means we can't create a balanced roster / keep our very best players.

Malkin and Letang will be absolute priorities. Martin, Orpik, Fleury, Kennedy are all expendable if it is necessary to sign both Letang and Geno. In fact, probably any three of those guys might go depending on how Shero tries to restructure the team. Other than Orpik you can argue all of the other three are overpriced for what they've brought in recent seasons. All are much easier to replace at their level of performance than Letang or Geno are at theirs. They'll stay, period.

I could see something like this, in the next 18 months if the cap goes way down (I don't think it will go below 60M), and key guys do well in the AHL (maybe into next year if the lockout lasts that long -- giving them extra time to develop further):

Kunitz - Geno - Neal
Dupuis - Sid - Bennett
Cooke - Sutter - Tangradi
Jeffrey - Adams - Glass
WBS

Letang - Despres (who I don't consider a prospect anymore)
Nisky - Dumoulin
Strait - Bortuzzo

Vokoun
Zatcogowskiwicz

It would be dodgy at times until those D gelled but it would be worst case what you're seeing here and we'd still be a solid team.


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11-15-2012, 11:37 PM
  #714
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
Your entire outlook is way too negative IMO.

Tangradi and Jeffrey both having break-through years? Huge assumption; about 20:1 either has a big season individually and a far bigger long shot that they both do great the same year. The very best odds are that neither will have a break-through season (offensively). They might improve but that's not the same thing as commanding big money. Re-signing them should not be a problem because they've never done anything to command a lot of money and one good (or one half of one good) season is not going to change that.

And no we're not going to play all our prospect D in 14/15. Insanity. Take a deep breath buddy... it's going to be OK (assuming we have a league in two years). If the Cap is low enough that we will struggle to sign both Malkin and Letang, Martin is gone, period. We will release him and eat his salary, if there are zero trade offers (someone would take Martin as a salary dump IMO; he's too good not to) and if keeping him means we can't create a balanced roster / keep our very best players.

Malkin and Letang will be absolute priorities. Martin, Orpik, Fleury, Kennedy are all expendable if it is necessary to sign both Letang and Geno. In fact, probably any three of those guys might go depending on how Shero tries to restructure the team. Other than Orpik you can argue all of the other three are overpriced for what they've brought in recent seasons. All are much easier to replace at their level of performance than Letang or Geno are at theirs. They'll stay, period.

I could see something like this, in the next 18 months if the cap goes way down (I don't think it will go below 60M), and key guys do well in the AHL (maybe into next year if the lockout lasts that long -- giving them extra time to develop further):

Kunitz - Geno - Neal
Dupuis - Sid - Bennett
Cooke - Sutter - Tangradi
Jeffrey - Adams - Glass
WBS

Letang - Despres (who I don't consider a prospect anymore)
Nisky - Dumoulin
Strait - Bortuzzo

Vokoun
Zatcogowskiwicz

It would be dodgy at times until those D gelled but it would be worst case what you're seeing here and we'd still be a solid team.
Yo Chancellor.

First of all, I said Tangradi OR Jeffrey. I'll bet you $5 one of them will score 50+ points the next complete season.

And young forwards get paid if they have a good season their free agent year.

And of course we are both right that Malkin & Letang come ahead of players like Orpik & Martin.

And Doom & Gloom. Feeling it a bit no doubt. I don't trust either side to be rational right now.

If that means you feel I am too negative, so be it. Goes both ways as I thought you were too naive blaming this all on the owners last summer.

It's both their faults, and you could see it coming years ago when the PA fired Kelly who might have been able to moderate the situation.


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11-16-2012, 06:50 AM
  #715
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Ever since I started viewing the negotiations as a spectator sport, this lockout has actually been somewhat enjoyable. The strategies and the textbook execution of negotiating tactics by Fehr makes me smile while I cry.

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11-16-2012, 08:13 AM
  #716
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Bettman suggests 2 week break on negotiation talks:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=409553

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11-16-2012, 10:34 AM
  #717
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Bettman suggests 2 week break on negotiation talks:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=409553
As I have said throughout this process, Bettman is a disgrace on this league, and this is further proof he has no respect for the game or the fans.

Of all of the idiotic things that have come out of this sick joke, Bettman's newest "idea" takes the cake by a mile.

We can't agree like adults, so lets not talk things out and take a two week break.

If people aren't convinced by three lockouts and this moronic verbal diarrhea that Bettman doesn't care about the integrity of the game, I'm not sure what it will take (maybe another lost season, perhaps?).

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11-16-2012, 10:51 AM
  #718
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As I have said throughout this process, Bettman is a disgrace on this league, and this is further proof he has no respect for the game or the fans.

Of all of the idiotic things that have come out of this sick joke, Bettman's newest "idea" takes the cake by a mile.

We can't agree like adults, so lets not talk things out and take a two week break.

If people aren't convinced by three lockouts and this moronic verbal diarrhea that Bettman doesn't care about the integrity of the game, I'm not sure what it will take (maybe another lost season, perhaps?).
I think he cares more about the game than Fehr. He's an ass, no doubt though.

I think it's obvious Bettman's going to test if the players are going to risk a lockout to get the best deal, or if they'll take the best deal possible to play this season. I'm not seeing why the players would do the former. Crosby and other well paid vets who are pissed about the last lockout will never get their salaries back from a lockout. No matter what the owners give them.


Last edited by mpp9: 11-16-2012 at 11:04 AM.
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11-16-2012, 10:55 AM
  #719
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Let me get this straight. Season ticket holders have already paid for their tickets? All these NHL teams are currently profiting by holding onto your cash and are able to invest it and profit it off of your money while giving you the finger and not bothering to play the games?

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11-16-2012, 10:57 AM
  #720
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Originally Posted by mrzeigler View Post
Ever since I started viewing the negotiations as a spectator sport, this lockout has actually been somewhat enjoyable. The strategies and the textbook execution of negotiating tactics by Fehr makes me smile while I cry.
I have found myself in the same position. Weird stuff, but the lockout negotiations seem to be covering for about half of my hockey jones.

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11-16-2012, 10:57 AM
  #721
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I think cares more about the game than Fehr. He's an asshat, no doubt though.

I think it's obvious Bettman's going to test if the players are going to risk a lockout to get the best deal, or if they'll take the best deal possible to play this season. I'm not seeing why the players would do the former. Crosby and other well paid vets who are pissed about the last lockout will never get their salaries back from a lockout. No matter what the owners give them.
Fehr could give two left balls about the game. It's Bettman's job to protect the integrity of the game and have enough common sense to know they have to talk this out. Even suggesting a two week break is utter nonsense.

Smith and Goodell had volcanic eruptions with each other on a number of occasions when they were negotiating the NFLs new CBA, but they were smart enough to have an independent mediator and they kept getting back in the room until they had a CBA agreed to.

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11-16-2012, 11:04 AM
  #722
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Yo Chancellor.

First of all, I said Tangradi OR Jeffrey. I'll bet you $5 one of them will score 50+ points the next complete season.
Yer on, brothaman! I'll take 50 points, but I'd be comfortable betting 40+... too bad you aimed high.


Quote:
And young forwards get paid if they have a good season their free agent year.
Yah but it's all relative. Neither guy is going to command a big salary by any stretch on the basis of scoring say 35-45 points (one time). I doubt very much it would be more than $1.7 or $1.8M a year. Also I believe there is supposed to be a glut of FA this coming summer (not surprising considering everyone knew the CBA would be new, back when they signed their deals).

So the supply will be higher than most years for FA options, driving prices down IMO for all but the most talented players. Further the CBA terms itself could drive prices down with various provisions so we'll see. In short I'm not worried about Tangradi or Jeffrey (or both) causing us money problems for our forward group.

Quote:
And of course we are both right that Malkin & Letang come ahead of players like Orpik & Martin.
Who together make $8.75M a season. My only point is, Shero has options to keep Geno and Tanger signed here for several more years. That's all.


Quote:
And Doom & Gloom. Feeling it a bit no doubt. I don't trust either side to be rational right now..
Right there with you on doom and gloom for starting the season, but that's a different thing than "when they come back Shero will be in trouble because he won't be able to sign our top guys" (paraphrasing). I don't think that last part will be true. I can't really envision a realistic scenario where we'd have to cut Geno or Tanger loose. The only way is if one of them asked for obscene money (like $12M a year for Geno or $8M a year for Letang) and I don't think they will.


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11-16-2012, 11:18 AM
  #723
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Originally Posted by Mr Jiggyfly View Post
Fehr could give two left balls about the game. It's Bettman's job to protect the integrity of the game and have enough common sense to know they have to talk this out. Even suggesting a two week break is utter nonsense.

Smith and Goodell had volcanic eruptions with each other on a number of occasions when they were negotiating the NFLs new CBA, but they were smart enough to have an independent mediator and they kept getting back in the room until they had a CBA agreed to.
It's not well run. But it takes two to negotiate. I haven't seen much from Fehr to suggest he's looking to make a deal in the near future. He's doing his job infuriating the league, but at some point, the players have to tell their boss what the end game is.

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11-16-2012, 11:55 AM
  #724
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It's not well run. But it takes two to negotiate. I haven't seen much from Fehr to suggest he's looking to make a deal in the near future. He's doing his job infuriating the league, but at some point, the players have to tell their boss what the end game is.
We have had thousands of players come though the league since Bettman stepped in. The players love the game, but in the end they are going to do what is best for them. That's why you have a commissioner, to look out for the best interests of the league as a whole. Ya, he is really looking out for the owners, but if he doesn't protect the integrity of the league, he isn't doing his job for them.

By the time this is ever resolved, we could be pushing 2k games lost FOREVER under Bettman's watch. No league even can come in the same universe as those numbers... its a ****ing disgrace. Fans, sponsors, etc dont want to invest their money in a product they have no faith in.

There was some truly shady dealings with how Smith (not much better more likeable than Fehr) got appointed head of the NFLPA over Vincent, who had a much, much better relationship with Goodell. The gap between the NFL and NFLPA was also much wider than the one between the NHL and NHLPA, yet Goodell found a way to close the deal without losing games.

When the replacement refs started to affect the game, after the GB-Sea embarrassment, he hammered out a deal in three days with the refs. He never suggested taking a two weak break at the most critical time in either scenario... Because it is so absurd that anyone would even suggest that.

Here we are with another one of Bettman's debacles on our hands and he is suggesting they take off for two weeks... There isn't even a way to defend that... Even Lebrun who has been entirely neutral throughout this process talked about Bettman's lack of respect for the game with such an idiotic notion.

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11-16-2012, 12:09 PM
  #725
Captain Hook
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The NFL lockout wouldn't have been resolved so easily if Fehr were the leader of the NFLPA. The guy is unreasonable. Selig was his ***** and it ruined a lot of things in baseball. I kind of like that Bettman isn't a push over like Selig but these two colossal egos (Bettman/Fehr) are going to significantly hurt the game with this lockout. They should put egos aside and find some compromise but I'm not holding my breath.


Last edited by End of Line: 11-16-2012 at 07:13 PM. Reason: Profanity filter
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