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The All Purpose Lu Thread (MOD WARNING IN OP)

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Old
11-16-2012, 09:38 AM
  #701
Bleach Clean
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Originally Posted by gabeliscious View Post
if that is the case then luongo should theoretically be most coveted by teams who are contenders or on the verge of being a contender and an upgrade in net could possibly push them over the top. the problem is most teams who are contenders have a reliable goaltender. there are a few above average teams who could use an upgrade in net;

san jose, chicago, and washington are the ones that come to mind. these are mature teams who if they had luongo in net it could actually make a difference.

the teams that need a goalie the most are the teams who are the weakest because they are missing multiple components. adding luongo wont make too much of a difference. teams like columbus, and edmonton might be kicking tires but these teams dont make any sense. they dont have any roster players that they could part with that would help vancouver right away and their 1st round picks are so high that it is doubtful that they would be included. they are also so far away from competing that by the time they are ready luongo could be on the decline.

in contrast, quick being so much younger then luongo makes him appealing to teams looking to compete now (since he was a payoff mvp and has a cup ring) and young enough that even on a team like columbus or edmonton he will be young enough to still be good when they are competitive.



I think you are underestimating how fine the margin is between winning and losing. Yes, TO drafted 5th overall this past year. At this rate, they would have to increase their ranking by essentially 10 spots. The difference last year was 12 points.



If you estimate Luongo's impact to be a 40~ goal difference over the course of a season, mostly based on save percentage alone, then apply that to TO's goal differential of -33, odds are that they get close to even, or even in the positive. So that puts them right in the range of OTT, and ahead of WSH and FLA last year.



So while people may say that Luongo alone doesn't make a significant difference, playing the key position of goal _can_ in fact change things for TO in a meaningful way. The position is that important.

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11-16-2012, 09:58 AM
  #702
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
I think you are underestimating how fine the margin is between winning and losing. Yes, TO drafted 5th overall this past year. At this rate, they would have to increase their ranking by essentially 10 spots. The difference last year was 12 points.



If you estimate Luongo's impact to be a 40~ goal difference over the course of a season, mostly based on save percentage alone, then apply that to TO's goal differential of -33, odds are that they get close to even, or even in the positive. So that puts them right in the range of OTT, and ahead of WSH and FLA last year.



So while people may say that Luongo alone doesn't make a significant difference, playing the key position of goal _can_ in fact change things for TO in a meaningful way. The position is that important.
Assuming Luongo meant a 40 goal difference to our team (which I don't think he does) what is the negative effect of losing any potential roster players in the deal, whether that be Kulemin, MacArthur etc etc? If we got him for free obviously we would be a better team than we are right now, but since Vancouver wants roster players, the is a loss that will be absorbed at the same time...

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11-16-2012, 10:07 AM
  #703
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Originally Posted by TOGuy14 View Post
Assuming Luongo meant a 40 goal difference to our team (which I don't think he does) what is the negative effect of losing any potential roster players in the deal, whether that be Kulemin, MacArthur etc etc?


The differences in save percentage between Reimer and Luongo last year equate to about 40 goals. That isn't throwing numbers out there. That's applying the difference to overall GA of 264.



As to the roster players potentially lost, they will make a difference, but it is difficult to equate that difference because you have to account for the variance in the position they play. However, this largely depends on TO's ability to replace said players. For MacArthur, I think they can replace him, but not so easily with Kulemin.

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11-16-2012, 10:14 AM
  #704
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
If Bernier stole the show, and suddenly J-Quick was available, how many teams would be interested?

Probably not many more than 5
I think that would be a different situation based on age, not contract, IMO.As when Quicks ten year deall expires he will only be 3 yrs older then lou is now. This is NOT a shot at Lou, just an observation

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11-16-2012, 10:17 AM
  #705
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
The differences in save percentage between Reimer and Luongo last year equate to about 40 goals. That isn't throwing numbers out there. That's applying the difference to overall GA of 264.

As to the roster players potentially lost, they will make a difference, but it is difficult to equate that difference because you have to account for the variance in the position they play. However, this largely depends on TO's ability to replace said players. For MacArthur, I think they can replace him, but not so easily with Kulemin.
I think a lot of people don't realize that...Luongo is 40 goals better than Reimer...add in less empty net goals because you won't be pulling the goalie to catch up from behind in as many games and the difference gets even bigger.

A guy like Kulemin vs Kadri in the same spot is probably not worth more than 5 goals IMO. Kadri would likely put up better offense while Kulemin would provide much better defense. The Luongo vs Reimer difference would be like trading Phil Kessel for Clarke McCarthur (or trading two Kessels for two McCarthurs in 2010-11).

That's why people say goaltending is 80% of the game unless you don't have one, then its 100%...right now the Leafs have a sieve in net.


Last edited by DJOpus: 11-16-2012 at 10:23 AM.
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11-16-2012, 10:20 AM
  #706
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Originally Posted by Ag925 View Post
I added to the post.

But, again, please explain the extreme difference in performance between the two goalies on the same team.
Sometimes guys play harder for one reason or another in front of one guy then another. Sometimes guys take for granted playing hard in both ends of the ice. Last year markstrpm had a .930 save % in the AHL, not horrible

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11-16-2012, 10:24 AM
  #707
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I will say a agree...with a disclaimer...if EDM or CHI offer a deal that clearly is the best, how does Gillis say no. The idea is to improve his team.
I said looking, lol, but IMHO, any deal that is reasonably(I am talking same city block, not even ballpark) close puts him anywhere but to a division or conference rival.

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11-16-2012, 10:35 AM
  #708
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I think a lot of people don't realize that...Luongo is 40 goals better than Reimer...add in less empty net goals because you won't be pulling the goalie to catch up from behind in as many games and the difference gets even bigger.

A guy like Kulemin vs Kadri in the same spot is probably not worth more than 5 goals IMO. Kadri would likely put up better offense while Kulemin would provide much better defense. The Luongo vs Reimer difference would be like trading Phil Kessel for Clarke McCarthur (or trading two Kessels for two McCarthurs in 2010-11).

That's why people say goaltending is 80% of the game unless you don't have one, then its 100%...right now the Leafs have a sieve in net.
See, a guy who played well for us two seasons ago and well until he got his bell rung badly and was mishandled by Wilson shouldn't necessarily be called a sieve. Unproven is fine, sieve might be stretching it.

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11-16-2012, 10:42 AM
  #709
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See, a guy who played well for us two seasons ago and well until he got his bell rung badly and was mishandled by Wilson shouldn't necessarily be called a sieve. Unproven is fine, sieve might be stretching it.
How about this...Reimer is unproven and was a sieve last year.

I do agree there is a chance he will bounce back but I certainly wouldn't want to bet my season on it.

I do find it a little funny that a lot of Leaf fans think their team sucks and is miles away from winning anything but the reality is that if they had a top goalie, they would be as much of a contender as the team that made it out of the East last year (not you specifically).

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11-16-2012, 10:46 AM
  #710
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
How about this...Reimer is unproven and was a sieve last year.

I do agree there is a chance he will bounce back but I certainly wouldn't want to bet my season on it.

I do find it a little funny that a lot of Leaf fans think their team sucks and is miles away from winning anything but the reality is that if they had a top goalie, they would be as much of a contender as the team that made it out of the East last year (not you specifically).
I tend to agree, the best series in the East last season, IMO, was the Devils/Panthers....with a good starter i think we as good or better than either team.

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11-16-2012, 10:53 AM
  #711
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
I will say a agree...with a disclaimer...if EDM or CHI offer a deal that clearly is the best, how does Gillis say no. The idea is to improve his team.
Yeah I don't understand the thinking either. They should be indifferent to the location of the team they trade with. There are a few exceptions, you don't trade fan favourites to your top rivals. Iginla should never be traded to Vancouver or Edmonton for example.

Lou should have had the same respect here, but the average Cancucks fan is really fickle.

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11-16-2012, 10:54 AM
  #712
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
How about this...Reimer is unproven and was a sieve last year.

I do agree there is a chance he will bounce back but I certainly wouldn't want to bet my season on it.

I do find it a little funny that a lot of Leaf fans think their team sucks and is miles away from winning anything but the reality is that if they had a top goalie, they would be as much of a contender as the team that made it out of the East last year (not you specifically).
How about unproven and injury mishandled? He was steller until his bell got rung and then was mishandled and played with cuncussion type symtoms from there out. I don't think the team sucks, I think it is a work in progress that will take time,lol. I am not opposed to lou, just at the right price for us. I have had this discussion with LIFERLEAFER, we just can't sell the farm for him is all. For the first time in a long time there is hope for withen and quality drafting, these are the things that keep franchises competitive long term, IMO. So would he help yes, is the the answer Burke is looking for, time will tell.

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11-16-2012, 10:57 AM
  #713
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Yeah I don't understand the thinking either. They should be indifferent to the location of the team they trade with. There are a few exceptions, you don't trade fan favourites to your top rivals. Iginla should never be traded to Vancouver or Edmonton for example.

Lou should have had the same respect here, but the average Cancucks fan is really fickle.
If he were traded to Chi, if they offered the best package no matter what anyone says if the Hawks beat the Nucks in the conference finals and won the cup what do you think happens fan reaction wise in Vancity? I am guessing Gillis won't be getting praised for the best package being taken for Lou, just a hunch

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11-16-2012, 11:03 AM
  #714
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Originally Posted by doorman View Post
If he were traded to Chi, if they offered the best package no matter what anyone says if the Hawks beat the Nucks in the conference finals and won the cup what do you think happens fan reaction wise in Vancity? I am guessing Gillis won't be getting praised for the best package being taken for Lou, just a hunch


One does not necessarily cause the other. CHI could beat VAN right now, even without Luongo, would it change the fan perception? No. Fans would be upset either way.



Further, it would have to depend on why they lost. For example, if Luongo and Schneider essentially played each other even, and CHI was just better offensively, or better defensively, then that would be the reason - not Luongo himself.



Lastly, what if the package from CHI is futures based? As in non-NHL contributors. Would Gillis still be faulted knowing full well that the value he expects has yet to arrive on the team?... There are just too many caveats to answer your question in the affirmative definitively.


Last edited by Bleach Clean: 11-16-2012 at 11:36 AM.
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11-16-2012, 11:14 AM
  #715
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To be fair CHI offered Bolland + as part of a package for Luongo which is (IMO) the equivalent of Luke Schenn +++ and GMMG didn't take it, so maybe he is gun shy about trading to hated rivals

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11-16-2012, 11:20 AM
  #716
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To be fair CHI offered Bolland + as part of a package for Luongo which is (IMO) the equivalent of Luke Schenn +++ and GMMG didn't take it, so maybe he is gun shy about trading to hated rivals
Or maybe he just wants MOAR VALUE.

Kane/Kessel/Huberdeau(discount because they're Florida) or bust.
Columbus is only out of the bidding because they traded Nash.

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11-16-2012, 11:34 AM
  #717
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How about unproven and injury mishandled? He was steller until his bell got rung and then was mishandled and played with cuncussion type symtoms from there out. I don't think the team sucks, I think it is a work in progress that will take time,lol. I am not opposed to lou, just at the right price for us. I have had this discussion with LIFERLEAFER, we just can't sell the farm for him is all. For the first time in a long time there is hope for withen and quality drafting, these are the things that keep franchises competitive long term, IMO. So would he help yes, is the the answer Burke is looking for, time will tell.
Reimer is a poor goalie. I remember a team 1040 broadcast before the leafs game where the guest (ferraro?) was discussing how poor his movement and fundamentals were. Everything is rigid. He said the Canucks would light him up top corner all night. Which is what happened. First four on Reimer and then the last two on the monster.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAFp0m_vKiE

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11-16-2012, 11:36 AM
  #718
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Originally Posted by Seatoo View Post
To be fair CHI offered Bolland + as part of a package for Luongo which is (IMO) the equivalent of Luke Schenn +++ and GMMG didn't take it, so maybe he is gun shy about trading to hated rivals
I am not saying Chi didn't offer bolland, but i don't think they would he is a playoff warrior for them and is a big Nuck killer if i remember correctly, is he not? Anyway I don't see Chi looking to deal a guy who consistantly plays as well in the playoffs as he does, but that is just me.

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11-16-2012, 11:42 AM
  #719
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
One does not necessarily cause the other. CHI could beat VAN right now, even without Luongo, would it change the fan perception? No. Fans would be upset either way.



Further, it would have to depend on why they lost. For example, if Luongo and Schneider essentially played each other even, and CHI was just better offensively, or better defensively, then that would be the reason - not Luongo himself.



Lastly, what if the package from CHI is futures based? As in non-NHL contributors. Would Gillis still be faulted knowing full well that the value he expects has yet to arrive on the team?... There are just too many caveats to answer your question in the affirmative definitively.
I guess we just agree to disagree which is fine. However, I think if the Hawks ousted the Nucks and Lou was the difference and they then won the cup, it adds insult to injury so to speak. i think it would worse even if they did play equally, as many Van fans have stated that Crawford is not in Lous league, which I don't debate( no reason to obtain him otherwise). So in turn, that makes Lou the difference if you wanna swing it that way.

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11-16-2012, 11:47 AM
  #720
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Or maybe he just wants MOAR VALUE.

Kane/Kessel/Huberdeau(discount because they're Florida) or bust.
Columbus is only out of the bidding because they traded Nash.
Do you really believe MG would want Kane or Kessel? If he did, they would be flipped to an American franchise for a Canuck's need - #1 defense-man. The Canucks already have several top-end forwards. They need a proven #1 defense-man more than they need Kane or Kessel.

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11-16-2012, 11:48 AM
  #721
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Originally Posted by doorman View Post
I guess we just agree to disagree which is fine. However, I think if the Hawks ousted the Nucks and Lou was the difference and they then won the cup, it adds insult to injury so to speak. i think it would worse even if they did play equally, as many Van fans have stated that Crawford is not in Lous league, which I don't debate( no reason to obtain him otherwise). So in turn, that makes Lou the difference if you wanna swing it that way.


If Luongo was the difference, as in clearly outplayed Schneider, then yes, I can see things as you do. However, he would _clearly_ have to be the difference. That's the point I'm making. That the players coming back from CHI to VAN were not the difference by comparison, in addition to Lu being the difference for CHI. All of that would have to occur for you to be right. I just don't see that as a likely scenario.



So if things have to align for Gillis to be ridiculed, so be it. I just don't think there is a high probability of these factors aligning, let alone the two teams facing each other at all. And so, when you are faced with that uncertainty, a GM is far better off getting back certain assets to help his team, rather than worrying about the ridicule that would occur resulting from an unlikely situation.

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11-16-2012, 11:52 AM
  #722
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Originally Posted by ginner classic View Post
Reimer is a poor goalie. I remember a team 1040 broadcast before the leafs game where the guest (ferraro?) was discussing how poor his movement and fundamentals were. Everything is rigid. He said the Canucks would light him up top corner all night. Which is what happened. First four on Reimer and then the last two on the monster.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAFp0m_vKiE
I'll just say this, i like Reimer, met him a few times at games and functions...even met his Mom...great guy...real down to earth...great work ethic...loyal to a fault....i'd take Luongo in a heartbeat, why? He is a better goalie, and that is kind of all that matters. Hockey is a results based business and Luongo would give us better results.

I'd like to add, most people who are against Luongo are that way for mainly 2 reasons...they feel he will were down due to age and they really like Reimer. I believe we should bring in Luongo...give him 55 starts, Reimer gets 27 (full season numbers obviously). That way Luongo isn't being overworked and if reimer does bounce back we have a stellar 1-2 punch.

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11-16-2012, 11:55 AM
  #723
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Pekka Rinne is doing nothing good in the KHL, lagging behind the like of Jeff Glass, Kari Ramo, Erik Esberg.

How do we explain that?

http://en.khl.ru/stat/leaders/222/sv_pct/
He lacks Suter and Weber defending him?

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11-16-2012, 11:55 AM
  #724
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I think that would be a different situation based on age, not contract, IMO.As when Quicks ten year deall expires he will only be 3 yrs older then lou is now. This is NOT a shot at Lou, just an observation
Im not neccesarily comparing Quick to Luongo, but moreso the overall market.

Quick might attract 1-2 teams Luongo wouldnt... But you will never have a league wide demand for a goalie, since a good chunk of teams have a solid starter.

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11-16-2012, 11:56 AM
  #725
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He lacks Suter and Weber defending him?
Ive never honestly been that sold on Rinne.

Hes good, but you cant help but look at the 2 guys who played nearly 30 mins/night in front of him.

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