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Off-season Madness the 4th: and here we wait in trade-completion limbo

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11-16-2012, 10:28 AM
  #426
topched
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Originally Posted by Sokil View Post
Sabremetrics is subjective and theoretical. That's the big difference here.




This isn't as simple as putting a ball to a bat where no scenario, pressure, or necessity matter. If that were the case, A-Rod would be a happy man.

And to suggest that players can't pull or drive to gaps, or go long for the sac fly, etc. undermines the skill of hitting altogether.
Explain to me how sabremetrics are subjective? And theoretical? Please... its about as theoretical as dividing hits by at bats... your favourite stat.

And I think you're missing the point. Assists involve a number of different factors. Getting a hit is getting a hit... you take the pitch thrown, put the bat to the ball, and have it land.

The fact that you even suggested "going for the long sac fly" should open your eyes to the fact that rbi's are a joke of a stat. The fact that you can hit the ball to the middle of the outfield (intentional or not) and get an rbi because a player in front of you was able to make it to 3rd with less than 2 outs is what makes it subjective. You did nothing to put that runner on base or ensure he was in scoring position.

Plain and simple, the amount of run-producing opportunities you get in a season is nothing but LUCK.

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11-16-2012, 10:28 AM
  #427
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I think the Jays only have one major hole they need to fill: 1B.

Bonifacio is fine at LF and Izturis is fine at 2B to start, but they need a proven big bat at 1B rather than a question mark like Lind.

Flipping Arencibia+ for a 1B would be an ideal move IMO.

Also, another proven pitcher like a Haren/Marcum/maybe even McCarthy on a 1 or 2 year deal would be great to solidify the rotation.
or a DH if EE can play 1B again
sucks not having a big hitter in both those spots (1B and DH)

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11-16-2012, 10:30 AM
  #428
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Originally Posted by Diamond Joe Quimby View Post
Edwin Encarnacion can, and perhaps should, be considered the 1B. His defense was passable there, and it didn't effect his hitting. IMO, an affordable RH bat (ala Jonny Gomes 2011) should be acquired to platoon with Lind at DH. I do agree that there are no other glaring holes that need to be filled in the lineup.
Yeah Edwin can be the 1B, but I still think they need a proven 1B/DH to hit 5th. Other than that, with players combination of speed, switch-hitting and getting on base, I'm very impressed with what AA has assembled.

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11-16-2012, 10:31 AM
  #429
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or a DH if EE can play 1B again
sucks not having a big hitter in both those spots (1B and DH)
Yep I agree. Just need one more big bat, and the least expensive type to acquire is at 1B/DH. Ortiz wouldve been great lol.

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11-16-2012, 10:31 AM
  #430
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I see EE starting at first. Wouldnt mind Gomes, but he might be looking a for a multi year deal, which I wouldnt really want to give him.

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11-16-2012, 10:34 AM
  #431
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a LH power hitter batting 5th

i think someone will take the #2 spot
rasmus lawrie bonifacio take your pick
stats will be juiced there with all the fastballs he'd get

they cant take a chance on Lind anymore
odds are he gets hurt even if he does come around

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11-16-2012, 10:34 AM
  #432
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Agree with these two. No trading Gose for a rental. Jays can't get crazy now.
I think Gose and TDA become more important than ever.

They are really our only two close-to-major-league-ready position playing prospects in the system right now. This move doesn't mean that all of a sudden AA has free reign to throw another 50 mill at any problem. The key to keeping payroll from bloating when you've got all these high priced stars is to infuse young talent making relativly small salaries.

Gose and TDA aren't getting moved for quick fixes... the only place they're going is into the starting lineup in the near future.

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11-16-2012, 10:42 AM
  #433
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Originally Posted by topched View Post
I think Gose and TDA become more important than ever.

They are really our only two close-to-major-league-ready position playing prospects in the system right now. This move doesn't mean that all of a sudden AA has free reign to throw another 50 mill at any problem. The key to keeping payroll from bloating when you've got all these high priced stars is to infuse young talent making relativly small salaries.

Gose and TDA aren't getting moved for quick fixes... the only place they're going is into the starting lineup in the near future.
I agree that neither should be moved, and both a very important. However, they are not the only prospects who are close to the big leagues. They may be the only two elite prospects, but there are some intriguing guys who are close to knocking on the door. We know about Moises and have seen (and many have forgotten about) David Cooper. There's also Mike McDade, Ryan Goins, Ryan Schimpf who all have unique skillsets and could blow up for all we know. Schimpf is the one I'm most intrigued by, especially with a bit of a hole at 2B. The organization tweaked his swing\approach a bit in 2012, and he took off after getting comfortable. Little guy with great left handed pop for a middle infielder. Conceivably, all those guys will be Bisons to start 2013.

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11-16-2012, 10:42 AM
  #434
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Shi Davidi is pretty awesome.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/201..._canadian_tax/

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11-16-2012, 10:44 AM
  #435
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
a LH power hitter batting 5th

i think someone will take the #2 spot
rasmus lawrie bonifacio take your pick
stats will be juiced there with all the fastballs he'd get

they cant take a chance on Lind anymore
odds are he gets hurt even if he does come around
Yeah Lind has had more than his fair share of his chances. He's not reliable anymore, I'm also sick of seeing him look completely lost at the plate half the time. We definitely need another left handed bat in our line-up who can play 1B or DH and then Edwin can take whichever one is available after that.

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11-16-2012, 10:47 AM
  #436
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He's one of the best. Consistently cuts through garbage to deliver insight and intelligent information.

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11-16-2012, 10:47 AM
  #437
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I like Shi but the RedSox-Dodgers example is extremely poor. He forgets that Selig all but has to allow the deal considering all those players like Punto, Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett etc.. all had to pass through waivers. If every team in baseball is willing to pass on those guys you pretty much have to allow the deal. If one other team put a claim in on any of those players the deal would have been squashed.

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11-16-2012, 10:56 AM
  #438
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Quote:
Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
a LH power hitter batting 5th

i think someone will take the #2 spot
rasmus lawrie bonifacio take your pick
stats will be juiced there with all the fastballs he'd get

they cant take a chance on Lind anymore
odds are he gets hurt even if he does come around
They have on more year of Lind and then thye can buy him out for 2 mil, which i hope they do. He'll be good to have as a bench player that can give EE some nights off at fielding for this year.

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11-16-2012, 11:04 AM
  #439
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Nice little article that answers a lot of questions we've seen around here. As for the tax stuff that's still a pretty healthy hit to their income.

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Old
11-16-2012, 11:08 AM
  #440
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Great article by Shi. The guy doesn't get his due in my opinion as one of the better baseball writers in MLB.

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11-16-2012, 11:09 AM
  #441
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Originally Posted by RayzorIsDull View Post
I like Shi but the RedSox-Dodgers example is extremely poor. He forgets that Selig all but has to allow the deal considering all those players like Punto, Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett etc.. all had to pass through waivers. If every team in baseball is willing to pass on those guys you pretty much have to allow the deal. If one other team put a claim in on any of those players the deal would have been squashed.
I believe you're wrong actually.

LA put a claim in on A-Gon and CC... Bosox rescinded them once this happened and worked out a deal with LA that ended up including Beckett and Punto etc.

From Sb Nation:

Quote:
The Los Angeles Dodgers claimed both Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett off waivers from the Boston Red Sox, and the two teams quickly pulled off a huge trade that involved nine players, including outfielder Carl Crawford.

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11-16-2012, 11:12 AM
  #442
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I believe you're wrong actually.

LA put a claim in on A-Gon and CC... Bosox rescinded them once this happened and worked out a deal with LA that ended up including Beckett and Punto etc.

From Sb Nation:
Right LA put it a claim for them but nobody in the AL did that's how it got to LA. You still have to subject them to waivers. Whether they were pulled back is meaningless. I don't know how you could veto a deal where players were subjected to the waiver process. You had your chance for a claim and blew it.

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11-16-2012, 11:19 AM
  #443
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Right LA put it a claim for them but nobody in the AL did that's how it got to LA. You still have to subject them to waivers. Whether they were pulled back is meaningless. I don't know how you could veto a deal where players were subjected to the waiver process. You had your chance for a claim and blew it.
That is true. But it's really not much different IMO than the Marlins shopping all of their guys and letting them know they're available. I would assume that the Marlins did their due dilligence and tried to find the best deal possible. If I'm Selig I'm saying the same thing about this deal that you're saying about the LA one "You had your chance to put together a package for these 3 guys and blew it".

The main difference between the two scenarios is that the Red Sox saved money and intend to spend it elsewhere and build a competitive team. Its questionable as to whether Loria has any intention to do so.

This whole review process is less about the deal and far more about the Marlins owner's intentions and whether this could have ramifications on other markets trying to build new stadiums etc.

Honestly I don't feel bad for the Marlins fans at all. They didn't show up to games. The team had the lowest attendance ever for any team playing in a 1st year stadium. They averaged under 30k per game with a lineup full of superstars. If they had shown up and made Loria some money then maybe he would be okay with holding on to these guys.

I'm not saying Loria is justified cause we'd all be devastated if Rogers pulled that crap here... but honestly they're considered a "big market" in the NBA, and could be in the MLB too

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11-16-2012, 11:23 AM
  #444
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Do you think that a Rasmus + Arencibia combo could fetch much in a trade.

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11-16-2012, 11:24 AM
  #445
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Originally Posted by RayzorIsDull View Post
I like Shi but the RedSox-Dodgers example is extremely poor. He forgets that Selig all but has to allow the deal considering all those players like Punto, Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett etc.. all had to pass through waivers. If every team in baseball is willing to pass on those guys you pretty much have to allow the deal. If one other team put a claim in on any of those players the deal would have been squashed.
It is considered common practice to pass. The deals still stand as mega money deals for prospects. This one has poorer optics, but it isn't far enough to invoke that one as a comparison.

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11-16-2012, 11:25 AM
  #446
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Amen. One thing that is quite evident, the MVP and Gold Glove awards are far more qualitative in nature than quantitative. I learned that lesson long ago.
Yes that is true while I am old school when it comes to stats. I am starting to understand there is a whole different group who use Sabremetrics when discussion baseball and forget other aspects of the game.

I think they should create another award and call it the Bill James award and its for the best Sabremetric season by a player that way those who love advance stats can go and debate that award and not have to use any other thing but stats.

To me Cabrera is the MVP as down the stretch he was in the middle of everything Detroit did and his numbers just got better as the meaningful games took place.

Trout's numbers got worse as the pennant race took shape....mind you still amazing numbers just not as good as Cabrera's numbers.

Cabrera pulled ahead after the All-Star break and out distanced Trout in the backstretch of the season

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11-16-2012, 11:30 AM
  #447
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It is considered common practice to pass. The deals still stand as mega money deals for prospects. This one has poorer optics, but it isn't far enough to invoke that one as a comparison.
I don't know if our deal has worse optics. A main piece of their deal was injured for the rest of that season and potentially into the next. None of them were having very good years especially considering their contracts. The guys we got do have some injuries but they didn't under perform by any means.

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11-16-2012, 11:31 AM
  #448
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Do you think that a Rasmus + Arencibia combo could fetch much in a trade.
Makes no sense to deal Colby right now. Value is at its lowest and the team cannot hand Gose an everyday job.

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11-16-2012, 11:32 AM
  #449
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That is true. But it's really not much different IMO than the Marlins shopping all of their guys and letting them know they're available. I would assume that the Marlins did their due dilligence and tried to find the best deal possible. If I'm Selig I'm saying the same thing about this deal that you're saying about the LA one "You had your chance to put together a package for these 3 guys and blew it".

The main difference between the two scenarios is that the Red Sox saved money and intend to spend it elsewhere and build a competitive team. Its questionable as to whether Loria has any intention to do so.

This whole review process is less about the deal and far more about the Marlins owner's intentions and whether this could have ramifications on other markets trying to build new stadiums etc.

Honestly I don't feel bad for the Marlins fans at all. They didn't show up to games. The team had the lowest attendance ever for any team playing in a 1st year stadium. They averaged under 30k per game with a lineup full of superstars. If they had shown up and made Loria some money then maybe he would be okay with holding on to these guys.

I'm not saying Loria is justified cause we'd all be devastated if Rogers pulled that crap here... but honestly they're considered a "big market" in the NBA, and could be in the MLB too
I agree with what you're saying. I am not so sure Florida is a big market though. I think Selig is just concerned about the viability of baseball in Miami going forward. He will allow the trade but he is well within his rights to look over the deal.

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Old
11-16-2012, 11:34 AM
  #450
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Do you think that a Rasmus + Arencibia combo could fetch much in a trade.
I'm guessing you saw/heard Bob Elliott on PTS too eh lol.

I think Rasmus' value is pretty low, but packaging him up with JP could fetch a good piece. Most likely a #2/3 with control + potential, a la Brett Anderson.

I'm not sure what teams are interested in acquiring an LF/CF plus a catcher though.

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