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Old
11-17-2012, 08:34 AM
  #126
Bjindaho
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
All of Izturis/Bonifacio/Davis are poor #1/#2 hitters as not one of them has a career OBP of .330. Ideally they are all #8/#9 hitters as they are all slap hitters. If any of these three are at the top of a teams order it is a red flag that you have a serious hole in your lineup.
It should also be noted that their slap tendencies are part of why they aren't actually hitting 1-2. They are good top of the order guys in that they get on (of course Davis/Bonifacio have to be platooned or this entire line of thinking doesn't work) and then they reap havoc on the basepaths.

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11-17-2012, 08:37 AM
  #127
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bjindaho View Post
Protection is a myth
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ion-look-like/

The above uses Miguel Cabrera as an example (and Prince Fielder who was "protected" by Delmon Young).

An objective definition of best hitter says that our top 4 are our best 4, but that our next best could easily be guys like Izturis, Bonifacio and Lawrie.

Add to that your comment at the end is absolutely impossible to predict (in fact, it is actually more common to have your 5-7 hitters up in the 9th than your top 3).

Lineup analysis is hard to do when every team fields the same type of lineup every game. FWIW, according to baseball musings lineup analysis tool (using last year's OBP and SLG) and my 9 guys, our best lineup is Melky - EE - Lawrie - Bautista - Reyes - Rasmus - Izturis - Arencibia - Bonifacio.
Posting one link does not prove anything, in any kind of setting. Not even here.

Directly from the article

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Iím not going to say that Fielder didnít have some effect on the way pitchers pitched to Cabrera. What Iím curious about, though, is what that effect might have been.
Immediately the writer concedes that by having Fielder hit behind Cabrera, it probably changed the way pitchers threw to Miguel; however, he was unsure of the effects. And the bolded is EXACTLY what "protection" is. Regardless of whether or not the player in the 4 hole capitalizes, if the number three hitter is receiving better, or even different pitches than he would if a scrub was hitting behind him, then the 4 hitter offers protection.

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There was the idea that, with Fielder behind him, Cabrera wouldnít get intentionally walked. Cabrera got intentionally walked 17 times, second only to Fielder getting intentionally walked 18 times. Thatís fewer intentional walks than Cabrera was granted in 2010 and 2011, but more than he was granted in 2008 and 2009. Clearly, intentional walks were still a reality.
Clearly, these situations aren't even analogous. In 2008, 2009, 2010, Miguel Cabrera batted cleanup, with Magglio Ordonez in the 3-hole. In 2011-2012 he has batted third. When trying to make predictions regarding protection trends, this is a pretty big inconsistency.

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Cabrera didnít see more or fewer first-pitch fastballs. Last yearís 66.2-percent first-pitch fastball rate turned into this yearís 65.8-percent first-pitch fastball rate. Cabrera actually saw fewer first-pitch strikes overall in 2012 than he did in 2011, by just a little bit.
I will give him this argument. Although in order to validate this, I would like to see a correlation between the quality of hitter and percentage of first-pitch strikes thrown. If there is no correlation, then the point is invalid. If there is, then the point stands.

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Iím open to the idea of Prince Fielder having an effect on the approach against Miguel Cabrera. Enough old-timey baseball people have talked about protection that I wonít simply dismiss it outright. I just want to know where such an effect might be observed, because I havenít found too much of anything. Seems to me, if there was any effect, it wouldíve been quite small. And it didnít make Cabrera more productive, relative to himself the last couple seasons.
Here even the author himself states that he won't dismiss the idea of "protection". He is however, looking for proof of its effects, which is totally reasonable. However, looking at one case and then making a conclusion that "protection is a myth" is not right.

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You know who might have really benefited are the Tigersí number-two hitters, in front of both Cabrera and Fielder. But Jim Leyland mixed and matched in that slot, and the Tigers finished with a .710 OPS from that position, right about on the American League average. Quintin Berry wasnít markedly better batting second than batting first. Andy Dirks had an .801 OPS batting second, and an .857 OPS overall. Boesch had a .659 OPS batting second, and a .659 OPS overall. So.
Here we have to question sample sizes. Quintin Berry played only 20 games batting leadoff. That is a pretty small sample size to be comparing how he performed batting 2nd vs batting first. Another thing that must be considered is WHEN Quintin Berry batted 2nd vs batted 1st. He batted leadoff near the end of the year. Since this was his rookie season, it can be reasonably assumed that near the end of the year he was more comfortable at the plate. It can also be assumed that pitchers would understand more of "the book" on Berry. He batted 2nd near the start of his season, and was by far the most common spot he batted. All this being said, I don't think the sample size is large enough to make any sort of reasonable conclusion, and the author even does mention that he hit a little bit better in the 2 hole.

I think that the best way to analyze this "protection" idea is

1) Get several examples, not just one
2) Compare a situation wherein someone hit, for example 3rd in the order for a Long time, maybe 2 straight seasons, with an average cleanup hitter, or worse behind him, to a new situation where an elite hitter was put in the 4 hole, and then hit there for a significant period of time, i.e. 2 seasons, not 20 games.

The author presented several good arguments in his favour, but one article is not going to prove anything.

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Old
11-17-2012, 08:38 AM
  #128
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SS – Reyes
LF - Cabrera
1B - Bautista
DH – Encarnacion
3B – Lawrie
CF – Rasmus
C - D'Arnaud
2B – Bonifacio
RF – Gose

-Buck (C), Izturis (2B), Davis (OF)

Trade Lind+Arencibia for more arms (you could never have too many good arms).

J. Johnson
Morrow
Romero
Buerhle
J.A. Happ

-Drabek, Lyon, Perez, Janssen, Santos, Oliver, Delabar, Lincoln, Rogers, Loup

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Old
11-17-2012, 08:45 AM
  #129
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Originally Posted by Bjindaho View Post
No, just no...

There's a reason why sabrmetrics exist. It's because players always used to stick to their pre-conceived notions and refuse anything that didn't fit in. Protection is one of those myths.

If you had actually bothered to read the article, you'd see that both Cabrera and Fielder got the same percentage of fastballs, similar percentages of strikes, and while Cabrera's IBBs went down, he still got intentionally walked quite a bit. The big difference is that Miguel hit the ball harder when he hit it. That isn't protection, that is Miguel Cabrera having a good year.

Did a little looking and while 2011 Prince may not work, 2010 Prince had Jimmy Edmonds who posted a great year. That Prince saw 1% more fastballs than last year, saw more strikes than 2011 Prince (.3% less than 2012 Prince), and since you like basic stats, he also walked more and homered about the same despite his "protection".

Sabrmetricians are almost as ignorant as the dinosaurs. They ignore the obvious such as Cabrera's enormous increase in HR's and even more enormous decrease in walks because his OPS was lower. It is just a coincidence that these sudden and drastic changes occurred at the same time of Fielder's arrival.......come on. I don't like Fielder in this comparison as there are too many variables that can't be accounted for such as pressure of expectations and the effect of hitting in a pitchers park.

There are many truisms that are passed on from the oldtimers that are just idiotic, but they usually manifest themselves in flawed strategies such as protecting the lines in the 9th inning. I am sure that if the geeksquad didn't actually see this happen they would somehow try and disprove it by using stats. But when players actually admit to consciously altering their strategy then you have to take it at face value. They are not saying that they just believe that this happens but they say that they atually did it themselves.......trying to disprove their confessions by using stats is ignorance of the highest level.

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Old
11-17-2012, 08:53 AM
  #130
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Originally Posted by The Amazing Ralph View Post
I think that the best way to analyze this "protection" idea is

1) Get several examples, not just one
2) Compare a situation wherein someone hit, for example 3rd in the order for a Long time, maybe 2 straight seasons, with an average cleanup hitter, or worse behind him, to a new situation where an elite hitter was put in the 4 hole, and then hit there for a significant period of time, i.e. 2 seasons, not 20 games.

The author presented several good arguments in his favour, but one article is not going to prove anything.
You raised several valid concerns about this article, but if one wanted to learn more, they could go to the main page and use the site search (underneath the recent articles) and search for protection. There are 1890 articles that relate to protection in some way but they don't have any way of sorting the articles logically (they do at least one article a year on protection and the end result is always that a big bopper gets roughly the same number of fastballs and strikes regardless of who is behind him, but that it has been noted that having guys in front of them that excel in getting on, their fastball and strike %s go up (especially for a team like this where pitchers will have to throw fastballs to stop Reyes from stealing second).

For your second point, I can offer Ryan Braun as a direct example. He saw MORE strikes this year without Prince Fielder hitting behind him (.5%). He also saw 2% more fastballs this year. He only walked .1% more and homered more.

It's not that protection is completely false. It's just that in order for it to matter, you have to be talking about the difference between say Jose Bautista and Adam Lind (and even then, if the hitter is good, it will mean he walks a lot more, dropping his counting stats).

The big problem with the lineup is that the difference between Maicer Izturis hitting 5th and Adam Lind is negligible unless we have a Johnny Gomes hitting against all the lefties. For the extra power Adam has, Maicer will be better on the basepaths.

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Old
11-17-2012, 08:58 AM
  #131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bjindaho View Post
It should also be noted that their slap tendencies are part of why they aren't actually hitting 1-2. They are good top of the order guys in that they get on (of course Davis/Bonifacio have to be platooned or this entire line of thinking doesn't work) and then they reap havoc on the basepaths.
What???????

They are poor #1/#2 hitter's because they DON'T get on. OBP under .340 are terrible for top of the order hitter's and not one of these guys have a career OBP above .329.

Funny thing is you are going with the oldtimer's view of speedy slap hitter's at the top of the lineup over sabrmetricians preference for high OBP at the top.

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Old
11-17-2012, 09:02 AM
  #132
p.l.f.
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vote bourn or upton
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

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11-17-2012, 09:02 AM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
Sabrmetricians are almost as ignorant as the dinosaurs. They ignore the obvious such as Cabrera's enormous increase in HR's and even more enormous decrease in walks because his OPS was lower. It is just a coincidence that these sudden and drastic changes occurred at the same time of Fielder's arrival.......come on. I don't like Fielder in this comparison as there are too many variables that can't be accounted for such as pressure of expectations and the effect of hitting in a pitchers park.

There are many truisms that are passed on from the oldtimers that are just idiotic, but they usually manifest themselves in flawed strategies such as protecting the lines in the 9th inning. I am sure that if the geeksquad didn't actually see this happen they would somehow try and disprove it by using stats. But when players actually admit to consciously altering their strategy then you have to take it at face value. They are not saying that they just believe that this happens but they say that they atually did it themselves.......trying to disprove their confessions by using stats is ignorance of the highest level.
Cabrera last year had 23% of his flyballs (not including fouls) end up in the seats. He also hit around 2% more flies than the year before and had his lowest pop-up rate ever.

He had a great year, but there is nothing in what he did that says anything other than that he squared the ball up better when it went in the air (that was his highest HR/Fly rate ever).

When I look at his splits, I immediately think of Vernon Wells. The reason is that Vernon's good years were the years where he hit the fewest grounders (2003) and where he hit his fewest pop-ups (2006). Cabrera came close to doing both of those in the same year.

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11-17-2012, 09:05 AM
  #134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
What???????

They are poor #1/#2 hitter's because they DON'T get on. OBP under .340 are terrible for top of the order hitter's and not one of these guys have a career OBP above .329.

Funny thing is you are going with the oldtimer's view of speedy slap hitter's at the top of the lineup over sabrmetricians preference for high OBP at the top.
Izturis still has above a .329 OBP. And if we sign a Gomes or a full time DH, the Davis/Bonifacio platoon goes away because we'll have a better option. I believe that if two guys can platoon and make a decent player, go with it. Right now, our weakest hitters are Rasmus, Arencibia, and whoever DHs.

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11-17-2012, 09:07 AM
  #135
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
vote bourn or upton
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Bourn and it isn't really close IMO. Combine plus speed with plus defense with an ability to get on. Upton isn't a very good outfielder, but has power and speed

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Old
11-17-2012, 09:11 AM
  #136
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i voted bourn

fo far (1,265 votes)
51.7% bourn
48.3% upton

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11-17-2012, 09:17 AM
  #137
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was wondering if cabrera (as of now, lineup could change again soon
would work batting 3rd as more of a molitor type hitter (.320 20 90), allowing lawrie to #2
not much power 1 thru 3 however

reyes
lawrie
cabrera
bautista
encarnacion
rasmus
lind/buck
arencebia
boneface

davis/wilson/iszturis

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11-17-2012, 09:23 AM
  #138
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bjindaho View Post
Izturis still has above a .329 OBP. And if we sign a Gomes or a full time DH, the Davis/Bonifacio platoon goes away because we'll have a better option. I believe that if two guys can platoon and make a decent player, go with it. Right now, our weakest hitters are Rasmus, Arencibia, and whoever DHs.
Izturis has a .327 OBP over the last 3 seasons............

Rasmus was playing hurt for the last couple of months and is a much better hitter than any of the three slap hitters. I believe that the Jays should rotate JPA, d'Arnaud and Lind in a platoon/rotation. Arencibia and d'Arnaud split the catching duties and take turns spelling Lind when there is a lefty on the mound.

I don't want to sound like I don't like Izturis/Bonifacio as I think they will be sufficient second basemen and #8/9 hitters. I just think that their absolute lack of any threat of the longball is a poor choice to bat behind EE. At least Delmong Young was a threat in Detroit even if he never fully delivered on those threats, 18 home runs is more than these 3 (Davis included) would likely combine for in most seasons.

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11-17-2012, 09:28 AM
  #139
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Quote:
Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
was wondering if cabrera (as of now, lineup could change again soon
would work batting 3rd as more of a molitor type hitter (.320 20 90), allowing lawrie to #2
not much power 1 thru 3 however

reyes
lawrie
cabrera
bautista
encarnacion
rasmus
lind/buck
arencebia
boneface

davis/wilson/iszturis
IMO, Wilson won't be on this team. He was just depth. The funny thing about the above lineup is that it was similar to one of the good ones in the lineup generator (only with EE and Bautista swapped around). IMO, Izturis starts at 2B over Bonifacio because Izturis is better defensively and they are similar offensively.

I really hope Lind isn't on this team without a Johnny Gomes, because no old school manager is going to platoon him with a Davis and using Buck risks losing the DH if Arencibia gets hurt.

I would either like to see Gomes for the platoon, Lind traded and we just go with Bonifacio/Davis at DH, or trade Lind and bring in a real DH like Napoli.

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11-17-2012, 09:28 AM
  #140
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Bourn and it isn't really close IMO. Combine plus speed with plus defense with an ability to get on. Upton isn't a very good outfielder, but has power and speed
Can't stand Upton.....he is a stubborn, selfish prima donna. Rasmus appeared to be turning the corner before he hurt himself last season. He has the potential to be much better than either of these guys.

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11-17-2012, 09:32 AM
  #141
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
Izturis has a .327 OBP over the last 3 seasons............

Rasmus was playing hurt for the last couple of months and is a much better hitter than any of the three slap hitters. I believe that the Jays should rotate JPA, d'Arnaud and Lind in a platoon/rotation. Arencibia and d'Arnaud split the catching duties and take turns spelling Lind when there is a lefty on the mound.

I don't want to sound like I don't like Izturis/Bonifacio as I think they will be sufficient second basemen and #8/9 hitters. I just think that their absolute lack of any threat of the longball is a poor choice to bat behind EE. At least Delmong Young was a threat in Detroit even if he never fully delivered on those threats, 18 home runs is more than these 3 (Davis included) would likely combine for in most seasons.
d'Arnaud should either be our starting catcher or in AAA. I don't want him playing 1B/DH and losing games at catcher for no reason.

I don't disagree that some power would be nice. My big problem is that with what we have right now, Adam Lind is probably our full time DH in most managers' eyes. And that is not okay. Realistically, Bonifacio/Davis wouldn't be close to Lind in terms of power, but they'd be significantly better in terms of output (especially since they are similar players, so the platoon doesn't require a lineup re-working).

Adam Lind could hit 20+ homers and still be an albatross in the lineup compared to these other guys.

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11-17-2012, 09:34 AM
  #142
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Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN

The Jays are close to announcing their next manager. Two of the final names they discussed were Jim Tracy and Jim Riggleman.

interesting...

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11-17-2012, 09:38 AM
  #143
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Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN

The Jays are close to announcing their next manager. Two of the final names they discussed were Jim Tracy and Jim Riggleman.
Expand


interesting...
I won't mind either to be honest.

I mentioned Jim Riggleman and when AA was quoted that he is a big believer in giving second chances, I knew he was talking about Riggleman.

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11-17-2012, 09:39 AM
  #144
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you could use buck as a dh with wilson as the backup c

but napoli, there you go
thats more like it

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11-17-2012, 09:40 AM
  #145
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enlighten me on riggleman and tracy
dont know much about either

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11-17-2012, 09:41 AM
  #146
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Originally Posted by RememberTwice View Post
Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN

The Jays are close to announcing their next manager. Two of the final names they discussed were Jim Tracy and Jim Riggleman.

interesting...
Not Jim Tracy plz

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11-17-2012, 09:42 AM
  #147
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Can't stand Upton.....he is a stubborn, selfish prima donna. Rasmus appeared to be turning the corner before he hurt himself last season. He has the potential to be much better than either of these guys.
I don't disagree that he can be better than Upton (especially attitude) if he can make better contact.

Bourn is an interesting case. Fangraphs did an article on Billy Hamilton (Cincy's big CF prospect) which compared him directly to Bourn (ironically, Anthony Gose fits the purpose of the article better than Hamilton did). Basically, because Bourn is so good defensively and at taking extra bases, he only needs to be a little better than replacement level with the bat to be an all-star calibre CF). Gose is faster than Bourn and might have a better arm too, so he'll probably fit this dynamic once he's here.

Rasmus, on the other hand, has been an average to below average fielder with elite baserunning and a slightly below average to above average bat. Rasmus's good year far exceeds anything Upton or Bourn have ever done with the bat (short of Upton's first full year) , yet he was still less valuable than Bourn's last 4 years and Upton's big year (granted, he was a SS at the time).

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11-17-2012, 09:45 AM
  #148
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I won't mind either to be honest.

I mentioned Jim Riggleman and when AA was quoted that he is a big believer in giving second chances, I knew he was talking about Riggleman.
Pretty sure this would be his 5th chance...

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11-17-2012, 09:51 AM
  #149
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Pretty sure this would be his 5th chance...
To be fair, he was an interim coach in 98 and he quit from Washington because they wouldn't talk money.

I'm a little nervous about a coach who coached in the big leagues when we were competitive (given our reliance on statistics as a team).

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11-17-2012, 10:02 AM
  #150
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wilner likes boneface batting #2 (wicked obp vs righties
noting cabrera doesnt walk much (although if he hits over .300........

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