HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Atlantic Division > Detroit Red Wings
Notices

Michigan Sports Talk Thread II

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
11-17-2012, 03:39 PM
  #726
Roy S
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,624
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by silkyjohnson50 View Post
Trout had a phenominal season, but why did the majority of MLB players and managers feel that Cabrera should have been MVP and it was guys like Keith Law who were pushing Trout? Back in August Law suggested that Cabrera was only the 3rd MVP on Detroit behind JV and AJ.
Buster Olney tweeted multiple times near the end of the season that front office execs- people that analyze player performance for a living- felt that Trout should win the MVP.

Roy S is offline  
Old
11-17-2012, 04:29 PM
  #727
ricky0034
Registered User
 
ricky0034's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 6,923
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by silkyjohnson50 View Post
How does not playing in 22 more games help your team?
it's not that not playing in games helps

it's that Trout managed to have an even bigger impact than Cabrera even despite not playing in those games

ricky0034 is offline  
Old
11-17-2012, 05:55 PM
  #728
Winger98
Moderator
powers combined
 
Winger98's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Cleveland
Posts: 13,356
vCash: 500
Send a message via Yahoo to Winger98
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roy S View Post
Buster Olney tweeted multiple times near the end of the season that front office execs- people that analyze player performance for a living- felt that Trout should win the MVP.
and players felt that Cabrera should win it.

__________________
blah, blah, blah
Winger98 is offline  
Old
11-17-2012, 08:03 PM
  #729
Roy S
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,624
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger98 View Post
and players felt that Cabrera should win it.
Right. Who has more authority in assessing a player's value? Those that do it for a living and get insight from both scouts and advanced stats or those who get paid solely to play the game well and not for their ability to determine how valuable offense, defense and base running are? I frankly don't see why the player's opinions would matter that much. Pitchers might have insight that Cabrera is a better pure hitter and there won't be much argument there. But, they aren't going to know how much weight to put on his decided disadvantage in defense and base running relative to his advantage in hitting.


Last edited by Roy S: 11-17-2012 at 08:11 PM.
Roy S is offline  
Old
11-17-2012, 08:11 PM
  #730
bishop
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 45
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger98 View Post
and players felt that Cabrera should win it.
As did managers.

bishop is offline  
Old
11-17-2012, 09:06 PM
  #731
Winger98
Moderator
powers combined
 
Winger98's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Cleveland
Posts: 13,356
vCash: 500
Send a message via Yahoo to Winger98
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roy S View Post
Right. Who has more authority in assessing a player's value? Those that do it for a living and get insight from both scouts and advanced stats or those who get paid solely to play the game well and not for their ability to determine how valuable offense, defense and base running are? I frankly don't see why the player's opinions would matter that much. Pitchers might have insight that Cabrera is a better pure hitter and there won't be much argument there. But, they aren't going to know how much weight to put on his decided disadvantage in defense and base running relative to his advantage in hitting.
You don't think players put a value on defense and baserunning? I think players have a pretty good idea of what to think of other players, though they understand it and express it on a different level than number crunchers. When you play, you have a different appreciation for what's going on and for what someone is, or isn't, doing.

Winger98 is offline  
Old
11-17-2012, 10:55 PM
  #732
TheMoreYouKnow
Registered User
 
TheMoreYouKnow's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Eire
Posts: 7,592
vCash: 500
The Sabremetrics guys don't really have a leg to stand on here, because there isn't anything in the by-laws that says the MVP goes to the best guy based on certain statistics which might be in some arcane sense (I say arcane, because they aren't observable, they are abstractions) more accurate than other older and more widely known statistics - but at the core remain arbitrary.

At the end of the day it's like the Heisman and the Hart Trophy, there's going to be a massive eyeball element to it. If the Sabremetrics guys want to create their own "Sabremetrics MVP Trophy" they are free to create it and then try to popularize it.

But at the end of the day I think it's not even about the MVP really for them, it's just about their crusade against the "old-timers".

TheMoreYouKnow is offline  
Old
11-17-2012, 11:03 PM
  #733
Roy S
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,624
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger98 View Post
You don't think players put a value on defense and baserunning? I think players have a pretty good idea of what to think of other players, though they understand it and express it on a different level than number crunchers. When you play, you have a different appreciation for what's going on and for what someone is, or isn't, doing.
No, I don't think they can analyze a player's performance over the course of a season better than front office executives who spend all their time doing that. I don't think it is even remotely close and that doesn't even make sense to me.

An appeal to an authorify is a fallacy anyway. But if people are going to use that, though, then I'd take a front office execs opinion (and all the stats and scouts insight that comes with it) over what managers and players think. I don't see how that is even a debate- front office execs are just much smarter and more well informed about players performance; it's what they do and why GM's get paid millions of dollars.

Roy S is offline  
Old
11-18-2012, 11:06 AM
  #734
Big Poppa Puck
Cleary=Jerry Gergich
 
Big Poppa Puck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: South Philly
Country: United States
Posts: 14,353
vCash: 500
The award is Most Valuable Player, not Best Offensive Player. You don't even need sabremetrics to make the case for Trout.

Cabrera was more deserving of MVP in 2010 and 2011 than he was this year and IMO he shoulda won it those years. Aside from HR and RBI Cabrera was better in 2010 and 2011 in every other category.

2010: 150G 38HR 111R 126RBI .328/.420/.622/1.042 6.3 WAR
2011: 161G 30HR 111R 105RBI .344/.448/.586/1.034 7.2 WAR
2012: 161G 44HR 109R 139RBI .330/.393/.606/.999 7.1 WAR

Big Poppa Puck is offline  
Old
11-18-2012, 04:15 PM
  #735
Winger98
Moderator
powers combined
 
Winger98's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Cleveland
Posts: 13,356
vCash: 500
Send a message via Yahoo to Winger98
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roy S View Post
No, I don't think they can analyze a player's performance over the course of a season better than front office executives who spend all their time doing that. I don't think it is even remotely close and that doesn't even make sense to me.

An appeal to an authorify is a fallacy anyway. But if people are going to use that, though, then I'd take a front office execs opinion (and all the stats and scouts insight that comes with it) over what managers and players think. I don't see how that is even a debate- front office execs are just much smarter and more well informed about players performance; it's what they do and why GM's get paid millions of dollars.
Such as to a statician?

Winger98 is offline  
Old
11-18-2012, 05:07 PM
  #736
jaster
glendeningforcaptain
 
jaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Chicago, IL
Country: United States
Posts: 6,030
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMoreYouKnow View Post
The Sabremetrics guys don't really have a leg to stand on here, because there isn't anything in the by-laws that says the MVP goes to the best guy based on certain statistics which might be in some arcane sense (I say arcane, because they aren't observable, they are abstractions) more accurate than other older and more widely known statistics - but at the core remain arbitrary.
Sabremetrics guys don't have a leg to stand on if you think the leg they are trying to stand on is that the MVP has to go to the sabremetric stats leader. But I don't see anyone saying that. People are just making an argument, and using advanced metrics to support it. Also, I disagree that advanced metrics are arbitrary. In fact, they are the opposite of arbitrary.


Quote:
At the end of the day it's like the Heisman and the Hart Trophy, there's going to be a massive eyeball element to it. If the Sabremetrics guys want to create their own "Sabremetrics MVP Trophy" they are free to create it and then try to popularize it.
Ha. First, the eyeball thing doesn't really come into it in this case. Cabrera didn't win because he looked better than Trout to the eyeball, watching them play. At least not by a meaningful margin. Both players looked simply spectacular this year to the eyeball. Cabrera won for various other reasons, some valid, some not. Second, no one wants a "Sabremetrics MVP Trophy." Suggesting that is missing the point. People simply want the MVP trophy to be awarded to the MVP, and people have differing opinions on what should determine who gets it, that's all. I don't think suggesting that sabremetrics should play a part in determining who the MVP is is all that radical.


Quote:
But at the end of the day I think it's not even about the MVP really for them, it's just about their crusade against the "old-timers".
Heh. Both sides crusade against each other. However, the sabre metrics guys typically use actual math and facts, where the old timers are often clinging to some archaic idea of what baseball should be; many of them are the same guys who were against HR replay, stating that getting a HR call wrong is "part of baseball."

jaster is offline  
Old
11-19-2012, 02:02 PM
  #737
jaster
glendeningforcaptain
 
jaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Chicago, IL
Country: United States
Posts: 6,030
vCash: 500
Maryland and Rutgers joining the Big Ten (I refuse to call it the B1G, because that name couldn't be more lame) now? Ugh At least they'll maybe change the names of the divisions (which also couldn't be more lame) after the conference is forced to re-align.

EDIT: Never mind, guess they aren't doing that. Division names remain. Maryland and Rutgers go to the Leaders division, Legends pick up Illinois. Lame. College football appears to be competing with the NHL for "which entity can force jaster to abandon them forever first?" I hate Delany. I hate money. Beam me up, Scotty.


Last edited by jaster: 11-19-2012 at 02:19 PM.
jaster is offline  
Old
11-19-2012, 02:17 PM
  #738
The Nose
#BlameTheKids
 
The Nose's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Country: United States
Posts: 6,105
vCash: 500
It's all a money grab.

The Nose is offline  
Old
11-20-2012, 06:24 PM
  #739
newfy
Registered User
 
newfy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 5,518
vCash: 500
Looking like Detroit is going to sign Stephen Drew and trade Jhonny

newfy is offline  
Old
11-20-2012, 06:47 PM
  #740
irishtemper
Registered User
 
irishtemper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 765
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by newfy View Post
Looking like Detroit is going to sign Stephen Drew and trade Jhonny
Yeah and the D-backs are interested in Johny...Sign Drew, trade Castellanos and Peralta for Upton. That way we get to keep Garcia, I think he will be a way better OF than Castellanos ever will. I mean he got Al Kaline's endorsement when they sent him down to look at Castellanos back in September and he told DD they need to call up this Garcia kid 'cause he can play ball.

irishtemper is offline  
Old
11-20-2012, 07:27 PM
  #741
Shoalzie
It's Not Complicated
 
Shoalzie's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Portland, MI
Country: United States
Posts: 13,853
vCash: 500
If they can get Upton without trading both Castellanos and Garcia, that's the only I'd be in favor of it.

I'm thrilled with the idea of getting Drew...another move to great improve their defense. Drew is another Boras guy...he loves working with Dombo and Mr. I. We saw first hand how good of a glove Drew has from the ALDS and we saw in the World Series the value of a good glove at short with Crawford. I love seeing a move like this because it's them willing to actually displace a guy to improve at a position. The Hunter move was a necessity because they didn't really have a guy at the position.

Shoalzie is offline  
Old
11-20-2012, 09:55 PM
  #742
sarcastro
Moderator
 
sarcastro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 12,238
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoalzie View Post
If they can get Upton without trading both Castellanos and Garcia, that's the only I'd be in favor of it.

I'm thrilled with the idea of getting Drew...another move to great improve their defense. Drew is another Boras guy...he loves working with Dombo and Mr. I. We saw first hand how good of a glove Drew has from the ALDS and we saw in the World Series the value of a good glove at short with Crawford. I love seeing a move like this because it's them willing to actually displace a guy to improve at a position. The Hunter move was a necessity because they didn't really have a guy at the position.
Drew is reportedly looking for 3 years/$30 mil. That's ridiculous IMO.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...drewst01.shtml

I'm not sure Drew is an upgrade over Peralta in any way. He's got a reputation as a good defender but the numbers say he's below average. He's got a reputation as a good hitter but he hasn't hit much lately, his good years aren't as good as Peralta's good years, and his bad years are worse than Peralta's bad years. And Drew is one year younger than Peralta, so it's not like they'd be going young.

Why not spend that extra $4 mil on some better bench players and then figure out 2014 and 2015 later, as opposed to throwing a huge deal at Drew when he hasn't proven he can hit or field post-injury?

I'm not a big Peralta fan, but this sounds like a terrible deal. Unless they get something really good from the DBacks for Peralta, but what are the odds of that? More likely they'll get a mediocre utility player or a fringe bullpen/AAAA guy. Whoopdeedoo.

Plus, I have to say that from what we saw in the ALCS, Stephen Drew is a whiny little *****. Complains about every single called strike, like Youkilis. Bugs the hell out of me.

sarcastro is offline  
Old
11-20-2012, 10:39 PM
  #743
newfy
Registered User
 
newfy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 5,518
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
Drew is reportedly looking for 3 years/$30 mil. That's ridiculous IMO.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...drewst01.shtml

I'm not sure Drew is an upgrade over Peralta in any way. He's got a reputation as a good defender but the numbers say he's below average. He's got a reputation as a good hitter but he hasn't hit much lately, his good years aren't as good as Peralta's good years, and his bad years are worse than Peralta's bad years. And Drew is one year younger than Peralta, so it's not like they'd be going young.

Why not spend that extra $4 mil on some better bench players and then figure out 2014 and 2015 later, as opposed to throwing a huge deal at Drew when he hasn't proven he can hit or field post-injury?

I'm not a big Peralta fan, but this sounds like a terrible deal. Unless they get something really good from the DBacks for Peralta, but what are the odds of that? More likely they'll get a mediocre utility player or a fringe bullpen/AAAA guy. Whoopdeedoo.

Plus, I have to say that from what we saw in the ALCS, Stephen Drew is a whiny little *****. Complains about every single called strike, like Youkilis. Bugs the hell out of me.
If you can sign Drew to a reasonable deal though, and use Peralta as part of a package for Upton is the upgrade in left field worth the slight reduction behind the plate in the short stop position?

Peraltas trade value is probably higher than you think as well after a good run to the world series and reasonable contract.

newfy is offline  
Old
11-20-2012, 11:15 PM
  #744
sarcastro
Moderator
 
sarcastro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 12,238
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by newfy View Post
If you can sign Drew to a reasonable deal though, and use Peralta as part of a package for Upton is the upgrade in left field worth the slight reduction behind the plate in the short stop position?

Peraltas trade value is probably higher than you think as well after a good run to the world series and reasonable contract.
A couple things here:

1. The deal that is rumored for Drew is not reasonable. IMO with his history, a reasonable deal for Drew would be one year for less money than Peralta makes.

2. Peralta is not going to be a major piece in any Upton deal. Whether Peralta is involved or not, you're talking about Castellanos, Garcia, maybe Smyly, maybe more. Those are the valuable pieces, not a mediocre SS on a 1 year deal. Playoffs or not, Peralta is not a huge trade chip as he's coming off a lousy offensive year and plays mediocre defense.

2b. All that being said, Peralta is probably still better than Drew. Especially if Drew is going to get a 3 year $30 mil deal.

2c. I'm not sure Upton is worth trading for either. He has been very inconsistent and he's getting really expensive - there's a reason the DBacks are thinking of unloading him. Adding Drew and Upton and paying them $70 million over the next 3 years would be really, really poor management.

I'd much rather hang onto Castellanos and Garcia, trade Porcello and Peralta to the DBacks, give that dough to Sanchez, and then roll with a dirt-cheap all-glove buntmaster at SS. Or failing that, DD could give me half the money he's going to give Drew and Upton, we'll go out back, I'll kick him in the nuts, and we'll call it a day...

There's only one guy that might be available who would be worth emptying the farm, and that's Giancarlo Stanton. Wouldn't be the first time the Tigers took advantage of stupid Marlins management.

sarcastro is offline  
Old
11-20-2012, 11:51 PM
  #745
The Zetterberg Era
Nyquist Explosion!
 
The Zetterberg Era's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Ft. Myers, FL
Country: United States
Posts: 16,109
vCash: 515
Quote:
Originally Posted by irishtemper View Post
Yeah and the D-backs are interested in Johny...Sign Drew, trade Castellanos and Peralta for Upton. That way we get to keep Garcia, I think he will be a way better OF than Castellanos ever will. I mean he got Al Kaline's endorsement when they sent him down to look at Castellanos back in September and he told DD they need to call up this Garcia kid 'cause he can play ball.
Not a big fan of trading either Castellanos or Garcia. Upton is a very good player but I don't like how much he is going to cost. I guess we will all find out, but this is starting to feel like how I felt in 2006. I know Cabrera has worked out, but we are swinging for homeruns with a very good team. They need to be careful, sometimes these moves sound better in theory than how they actually turn out.

The Zetterberg Era is offline  
Old
11-21-2012, 12:01 AM
  #746
newfy
Registered User
 
newfy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 5,518
vCash: 500
Is Stanton realistically on the block though? That would be awesome and the Marlins seem to be looking to get rid of anything that might cost them money.

Who do you give up for him?

newfy is offline  
Old
11-21-2012, 12:26 AM
  #747
The Zetterberg Era
Nyquist Explosion!
 
The Zetterberg Era's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Ft. Myers, FL
Country: United States
Posts: 16,109
vCash: 515
Quote:
Originally Posted by newfy View Post
Is Stanton realistically on the block though? That would be awesome and the Marlins seem to be looking to get rid of anything that might cost them money.

Who do you give up for him?
He isn't. They said as much right after the fire sale.

The Zetterberg Era is offline  
Old
11-21-2012, 01:26 AM
  #748
TheMoreYouKnow
Registered User
 
TheMoreYouKnow's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Eire
Posts: 7,592
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaster View Post
Sabremetrics guys don't have a leg to stand on if you think the leg they are trying to stand on is that the MVP has to go to the sabremetric stats leader. But I don't see anyone saying that. People are just making an argument, and using advanced metrics to support it. Also, I disagree that advanced metrics are arbitrary. In fact, they are the opposite of arbitrary.
Well, you would be correct if the approach was "Well I think Trout should be voted MVP because I believe these stats show he was the best player" but all I hear is "Trout *is* the MVP because these numbers say so."

But of course they are arbitrary, I love statistics myself, I use them professionally, I learned about them to a considerable extent in college. I'm one of those guys who puts "SPSS" on the skills part of his CV. But when I try to get a certain statistical output, I need to make a decision about the input, the computer won't do *that* for me. It'll calculate it for me but it won't decide what is worth what and why that is. That's all me. Bill James needs a book to explain what goes into "win shares" but are you telling me "win shares" came down from God or were the result of James thinking about baseball?

That doesn't mean they are worthless, but that means that at the end of the day James, like anyone else using statistics in an analytical way, had to make a judgment call somewhere in that monstrosity of a calculation. And that judgment call *is* somewhat arbitrary because you go beyond empiricism and into the realm of your own assumptions and guesses. That's fine, that's what social science is, and that can give us valuable insights into many things. But the reality is also that it is somewhat less verified than say a proven chemical reaction we can test and test and test with the same outcome again and again.

That is too often forgotten by the hardcore "stathead" camp who tend to treat sabremetrics as gospel, when in reality the projections made by the stat gurus have been shown as simply wrong by real results quite often. I used to buy Baseball Prospectus every year and really I don't think they were *so* good at predicting either player success or team success, that I would consider an advanced baseball metric as anything *close* to a fact. I think there's value to sabremetrics but too many people get too dogmatic about it.

And as a result people get so angry about it, like you could sense real anger that Cabrera got the MVP when at the end of the day it's just trivia and little else. Social science, its methods and its theories are tempting because they seem to bring order into chaos, give answers to the great questions of the time where otherwise you just have opinions. But it's ultimately an instrument that has its flaws and it's always dangerous when devotees of a particular theory decide to ignore such flaws and declare their creed "fact" when really it's just that, a view, an opinion as well at the end of the day.

Baseball is a game, it's far too trivial really to get into these wars over it, but still so many of them do. Yet baseball is actually the perfect microcosm for showing all the limitations of social science and thus statistics and their analysis. The interaction of everything that happens in a baseball game both within and between players, their tools, the environment ranging from the stadium to the weather, it's all in its entirety far too complex to be grasped by anything devised by Bill James, just like the world at large has so far eluded any attempts at comprehensive explanation by sociologists, economists and so forth.

TheMoreYouKnow is offline  
Old
11-21-2012, 03:18 AM
  #749
ricky0034
Registered User
 
ricky0034's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 6,923
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMoreYouKnow View Post
Well, you would be correct if the approach was "Well I think Trout should be voted MVP because I believe these stats show he was the best player" but all I hear is "Trout *is* the MVP because these numbers say so."
because it doesn't even require much in the way of advanced stats for it to be obvious that Trout should have won

any objective analysis will reveal that Trout was at least close to Cabrera in hitting,and then it's blindingly obvious even without any stats at all that Trout is vastly superior in base-running and fielding

people are so militant about this because they consider it to be an extremely obvious choice

ricky0034 is offline  
Old
11-21-2012, 08:11 AM
  #750
Shoalzie
It's Not Complicated
 
Shoalzie's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Portland, MI
Country: United States
Posts: 13,853
vCash: 500
Once Trout puts in a full season and if he puts up similar numbers again...it'll be hard to deny him again. 50+ steals, lead the Majors in runs and then hit well over .300, probably hit 30+ HR and 90-100 RBI as a leadoff man...that resume will put him on the MVP ballot every year.

If Trout hadn't faded in September and continued to post strong numbers, I think it could've been him over Cabrera regardless of the Triple Crown or which team made the playoffs. Like Liam Neeson in Taken...Trout has a very unique set of skills.

Shoalzie is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:11 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.