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Pitlick, Hamilton, and Martindale Relative To Their Peers

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Old
11-18-2012, 02:58 AM
  #1
Bryanbryoil
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Pitlick, Hamilton, and Martindale Relative To Their Peers

I see a number of people ready to write these guys off as busts or bad picks. So let's see what their fellow 2nd round forwards are currently producing at the moment (listed in draft order from highest #31 to Lowest #61) players stats are in the AHL unless noted otherwise:

Pitlick 14gp. 0-2-2 -3
Knight 2gp. 0's -2
McFarland 9gp. 0-3-3 -3
Smith 9gp. 1-1-2 +1
Rensfeldt League Unknown/Stats Unknown
Bulmer 14gp. 1-1-2 -7
Thomas 13gp. 4-3-7 Ev
Smith-Pelly 13gp. 1-6-7 -3

Ross 3gp. 0's -1
Wannstrom 12gp. 0-1-1 -6
Spooner 11gp. 2-8-10 -3
Toffoli 13gp. 4-3-7 +1

Hamilton 11gp. 2-0-2 -4
Brickley (NCAA) 7gp. 1-1-2 Ev
Jarnkrok (SEL) 23gp. 4-15-19 -3
Lane 12gp. 0-2-2 Ev
Straka (QMJHL) 17gp. 20-11-31 +18
Larsson 15gp. 3-5-8 -4
Lindberg (SEL) 23gp. 9-13-22 +10
Zucker 11gp. 7-5-12 -1
Martindale 6gp. 0-3-3 +2

The bolded players are clearly outperforming our guys in the AHL this year, however there are many players that are producing every bit as poorly as Pitlick and Hamilton are. IMO some of the luster should be wearing off of Stu and co. looking at the guys that we passed on, I've been saying for some time that for this team to ever become a truly great team that we'd need some of these high picks outside of the first round to pan out. If we've squandered these high 2nd and 3rd round picks over the last 3 drafts, we need to improve our amateur scouting in a big way. I'd try to pry some scouts from Minnesota and Anaheim if I could, they seem to keep churning out solid drafts.

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11-18-2012, 03:12 AM
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I think it is important to note when comparing to other guys drafted in the 2010 2nd round is that Pitlick, Hamilton and Martindale were all in unique positions of being old enough to be in the AHL last year.

For them this is there 2nd year of pro hockey. They've all had a full season to get accustomed to pro hockey. With the exception of Devante Smith-Pelly every single forward you listed is entering their first full season of pro hockey in NA.

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11-18-2012, 03:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Spawn View Post
I think it is important to note when comparing to other guys drafted in the 2010 2nd round is that Pitlick, Hamilton and Martindale were all in unique positions of being old enough to be in the AHL last year.

For them this is there 2nd year of pro hockey. They've all had a full season to get accustomed to pro hockey. With the exception of Devante Smith-Pelly every single forward you listed is entering their first full season of pro hockey in NA.
All in all, just looking at the numbers it doesn't look too good at this point. That said this has been a bizarre Barons team so far. I wouldn't hold it against them too much (being 2nd year pro's) because they are still developing just like the other players are. That being said it's too bad that we haven't seen more of Martindale as he's been hurt, but the other two definitely are looking like bottom 6 forwards going forward unless they really step their games up. At least Marincin looks like our potential saving grace out of those 3 2nd round picks.

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11-18-2012, 06:08 AM
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If we're solely looking at points, something to also consider are the roles they are asked to play for their respective teams. Both Pitlick and Hamilton are on the third/fourth lines and are looked at to play more of the checking/ penalty killing roles. Their time on the PP is pretty limited.

I do feel that things are going ok with Pitlick in the development area. He plays a high energy game and looks a little snake bit with the offense but he's playing well in the other areas of his game. Hamilton I think has not been very good at all. Compared to what we saw in his WHL days he hasn't been doing nearly as well. Confidence maybe? Martindale is Martindale. Consistency has been an issue with him. When he's not on the puck he floats (or looks like he floats - ala Arnott syndrome).

GXL

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11-18-2012, 10:36 AM
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I think this whole thread is off base.

#1. I do not think most people are writing off any of the above prospects as busts yet.

I do think most people expectations have come down to earth and now think those players will be bottom 6 forwards rather than top 6 forwards if they suceed.

#2. Putting them in with a bunch of other underperforming prospects boes not make me feel any better about thier current developement and timetable.

#3. Calling out Stu at this point seems to completely contridict the original point I assuming you are trying to make. That these guys are not busts yet and really are only slightly under performing for thier draft class.

#4. Typicaly only one players from a teams whole year of draft picks makes it into the NHL as a regular. 2 is considered great. 3 is ammazing etc... And most of those who make it are usualy from the first round.

On the pont of calling out stu in general. As either great or bad is completely unknown and will be for another 3-5 years. As prospects go we have a VERY good group. One of the best in the NHL and while some of our picks are underperforming. Others are exceeding expectations.

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11-18-2012, 10:46 AM
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Our guys on that list are getting less ice time and are being used as defensive forwards more than the others you mentioned. Obviously our guys are being brought along slower, either by necessity or by choice. Keep in mind that some of the guys you bolded are needed at the NHL level, so the AHL teams need to get them ready. We don`t really have room for more rookies anyway, so bringing our guys along slower makes sense.

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11-18-2012, 11:41 AM
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I wanted us to draft Straka real bad. Too bad we did not. I agree though, some of the shine has worn off, especially if you leave out the obvious first rounders. These guys look like they will be AHLers/European leagues/maybe spot fourth line guys. I see nothing great there.

Edit: it would be nice if one of these guys turned out to be a useful bottom six player. That is always a bonus if you can fill those spots internally, and really, that should be what we expect out of late picks.


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11-18-2012, 12:34 PM
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Regardless of stats, its too early to call 2 of these guys busts. You should really wait 5+ years to analyze a draft first of all. Second, if these guys slot in anywhere in an NHL lineup thats a win.

I've seen enough of Pitlick to think he can be a good 4th liner. If the guy can bring energy and size, but has enough skill to make/give a pass and keep up with the rest of the line then that's great.

Looking at Hamilton, don't defensive forwards take longer to develop? If so, we shouldn't be worried about this guy. If like Pitlick he can some day slot in as a call up/4th line PK guy then i'm happy with that.


Martindale is a lost cause at this point. He was drafted as a scoring center, but he sucks and isn't producing. I don't even expect to see him as an AHL regular.

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11-18-2012, 12:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerchon View Post
I think this whole thread is off base.

#1. I do not think most people are writing off any of the above prospects as busts yet.

I do think most people expectations have come down to earth and now think those players will be bottom 6 forwards rather than top 6 forwards if they suceed.

#2. Putting them in with a bunch of other underperforming prospects boes not make me feel any better about thier current developement and timetable.

#3. Calling out Stu at this point seems to completely contridict the original point I assuming you are trying to make. That these guys are not busts yet and really are only slightly under performing for thier draft class.

#4. Typicaly only one players from a teams whole year of draft picks makes it into the NHL as a regular. 2 is considered great. 3 is ammazing etc... And most of those who make it are usualy from the first round.

On the pont of calling out stu in general. As either great or bad is completely unknown and will be for another 3-5 years. As prospects go we have a VERY good group. One of the best in the NHL and while some of our picks are underperforming. Others are exceeding expectations.
The bottom line is that Stu had 4 picks between #31 and #61 in '10, IIRC the average is 1 in 5 being an NHL player in the 2nd round. Now if he was so great would 2 in 4 be such a reach? IMO that is what I'd hope for. Marincin looks good and IMO Pitlick has the potential to be an NHL player due to his physical tools, but when you look at teams like Minnesota and Anaheim with what they've been able to pull off, it makes me think that Stu hasn't earned the praise that gets heaped upon him and that in the end he could go from "Magnificent basterd" to just *******

Lander, Pitlick, Hamilton, Marincin, Musil, Moroz, these will be the guys that define Stu's tenure here unless guys like Gernat, Laleggia, Rieder, Zharkov, Khaira, etc. end up making up for the others if they don't succeed.

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11-18-2012, 01:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmoss45 View Post
Regardless of stats, its too early to call 2 of these guys busts. You should really wait 5+ years to analyze a draft first of all. Second, if these guys slot in anywhere in an NHL lineup thats a win.

I've seen enough of Pitlick to think he can be a good 4th liner. If the guy can bring energy and size, but has enough skill to make/give a pass and keep up with the rest of the line then that's great.

Looking at Hamilton, don't defensive forwards take longer to develop? If so, we shouldn't be worried about this guy. If like Pitlick he can some day slot in as a call up/4th line PK guy then i'm happy with that.


Martindale is a lost cause at this point. He was drafted as a scoring center, but he sucks and isn't producing. I don't even expect to see him as an AHL regular.
I find it very unfair that you are writing off Martindale when he has more points than Hamilton does in less games. He has been injured for the last 8 games or so, so it's not like he's had a huge opportunity to show what he has unlike Hamilton who has had maybe 2 good games all year long. IMO they are very much in the same boat except Martindale is more skilled but not as fleet of food.

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11-18-2012, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by GorillazXL View Post
If we're solely looking at points, something to also consider are the roles they are asked to play for their respective teams. Both Pitlick and Hamilton are on the third/fourth lines and are looked at to play more of the checking/ penalty killing roles. Their time on the PP is pretty limited.

I do feel that things are going ok with Pitlick in the development area. He plays a high energy game and looks a little snake bit with the offense but he's playing well in the other areas of his game. Hamilton I think has not been very good at all. Compared to what we saw in his WHL days he hasn't been doing nearly as well. Confidence maybe? Martindale is Martindale. Consistency has been an issue with him. When he's not on the puck he floats (or looks like he floats - ala Arnott syndrome).

GXL
I agree that other picks are likely playing in a more offensive role and that does obviously matter. But let me ask you this, if we had Pitlick on the 2nd line instead of Hartikainen or Hamilton there instead of Paajarvi do either outperform our Euro's? I don't think so. So are they currently top 6 AHLers? IMO the answer is no until they show otherwise. That said IMO Pitlick is a good 3rd line AHLer at the moment while Hamilton IMO is an alright 4th liner right now if that. To be fair to Pitlick it's very hard to get him top 6 minutes especially now that Hall has returned. Ideally Green returns soon and we see a 3rd line of Green-Arcobello-Pitlick, that should give the young guy a boost IMO.

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11-18-2012, 01:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
I see a number of people ready to write these guys off as busts or bad picks. So let's see what their fellow 2nd round forwards are currently producing at the moment (listed in draft order from highest #31 to Lowest #61) players stats are in the AHL unless noted otherwise:

Pitlick 14gp. 0-2-2 -3
Knight 2gp. 0's -2
McFarland 9gp. 0-3-3 -3
Smith 9gp. 1-1-2 +1
Rensfeldt League Unknown/Stats Unknown
Bulmer 14gp. 1-1-2 -7
Thomas 13gp. 4-3-7 Ev
Smith-Pelly 13gp. 1-6-7 -3

Ross 3gp. 0's -1
Wannstrom 12gp. 0-1-1 -6
Spooner 11gp. 2-8-10 -3
Toffoli 13gp. 4-3-7 +1

Hamilton 11gp. 2-0-2 -4
Brickley (NCAA) 7gp. 1-1-2 Ev
Jarnkrok (SEL) 23gp. 4-15-19 -3
Lane 12gp. 0-2-2 Ev
Straka (QMJHL) 17gp. 20-11-31 +18
Larsson 15gp. 3-5-8 -4
Lindberg (SEL) 23gp. 9-13-22 +10
Zucker 11gp. 7-5-12 -1
Martindale 6gp. 0-3-3 +2

The bolded players are clearly outperforming our guys in the AHL this year, however there are many players that are producing every bit as poorly as Pitlick and Hamilton are. IMO some of the luster should be wearing off of Stu and co. looking at the guys that we passed on, I've been saying for some time that for this team to ever become a truly great team that we'd need some of these high picks outside of the first round to pan out. If we've squandered these high 2nd and 3rd round picks over the last 3 drafts, we need to improve our amateur scouting in a big way. I'd try to pry some scouts from Minnesota and Anaheim if I could, they seem to keep churning out solid drafts.
Amen. But at this point, I'm not so sure that the responsibility for the Oilers lacklustre drafting is Stu's fault or due to interference from his boss KLowe. Ever since KLowe has been at the helm, it's been a nightmare. Clearly this won't change anytime soon, and that is why I am becomming more convinced that even with the 1st overall pick year after year, this team will not be winning anything, anytime soon. Until KLowe is gone, the train wreck will continue.

For teams to build winners, they must be able to pick gems from the later parts of the 1st round and second round. Since 2001, the only real Gem we got is Eberle, all others were near misses or disasters (MAP, Nash, Plante, etc.). The Oilers are constantly failing by going 'off the board' and not taking the BPA.

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11-18-2012, 01:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
it makes me think that Stu hasn't earned the praise that gets heaped upon him and that in the end he could go from "Magnificent basterd" to just *******
I've been saying that for a while now. I am not anti-Stu or a Stu groupie, but I don't agree that the copious amounts of praise heaped on him are a bit premature.

RNH and Hall have done well, but a monkey could (would) have made those picks. And I expect Yakupov to be more of the same.

The thing is, a lot of the picks have outperformed their draft position in their respective leagues after getting drafted, so that is definitely promising. But until anyone other than a #1 overall makes an impact at the NHL level, I think the praise should be kept in check a bit more.

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11-18-2012, 02:04 PM
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Amen. But at this point, I'm not so sure that the responsibility for the Oilers lacklustre drafting is Stu's fault or due to interference from his boss KLowe. Ever since KLowe has been at the helm, it's been a nightmare. Clearly this won't change anytime soon, and that is why I am becomming more convinced that even with the 1st overall pick year after year, this team will not be winning anything, anytime soon. Until KLowe is gone, the train wreck will continue.

For teams to build winners, they must be able to pick gems from the later parts of the 1st round and second round. Since 2001, the only real Gem we got is Eberle, all others were near misses or disasters (MAP, Nash, Plante, etc.). The Oilers are constantly failing by going 'off the board' and not taking the BPA.
Look at the drafting before Kevin Lowe took over as GM. The Oilers drafting has been pretty horrible since the mid 1980's other than top 10 picks, and even when we have ended up drafting a player who had a lengthy career in the NHL they often ended up spending the vast majority of their careers with other teams.

Hopefully our D picks can pan out a little better at least , I feel much more confident in the prospects at that position right now than at forward.

Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat, Musil, Fedun and Schultz looks like good depth at defense.

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11-18-2012, 02:14 PM
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Look at the drafting before Kevin Lowe took over as GM. The Oilers drafting has been pretty horrible since the mid 1980's other than top 10 picks, and even when we have ended up drafting a player who had a lengthy career in the NHL they often ended up spending the vast majority of their careers with other teams.

Hopefully our D picks can pan out a little better at least , I feel much more confident in the prospects at that position right now than at forward.

Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat, Musil, Fedun and Schultz looks like good depth at defense.
Time will tell. Eberle is the only player that has outperformed his draft ranking so far.

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11-18-2012, 03:09 PM
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I find it very unfair that you are writing off Martindale when he has more points than Hamilton does in less games. He has been injured for the last 8 games or so, so it's not like he's had a huge opportunity to show what he has unlike Hamilton who has had maybe 2 good games all year long. IMO they are very much in the same boat except Martindale is more skilled but not as fleet of food.
I disagree because Martindale got a look with the skill guys early one, and didn't do much. 2/3 points were flukey 2nd assists IIRC. With a guy like Martindale he has to score to succeed since he isn't physical and doesn't PK.

I agree that Hamilton has a long way to go but I'm saying points don't tell the whole story with him. In his role he can not score and still be effective IMO.

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11-18-2012, 03:20 PM
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Most players drafted outside the 1st round never make it to the NHL. The signs of proper development curve is substantially outperforming the cohort that can be assumed to contain plenty of busts.
Guys like Lander, Pitlick, Martindale, Hamilton obviously still have time, but I think unless they start putting up Hartikainen type offensive numbers in the AHL next season at the latest, they are not likely to be anything more than 3-4th liners in the NHL.

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11-18-2012, 04:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Hoogaar23 View Post
I've been saying that for a while now. I am not anti-Stu or a Stu groupie, but I don't agree that the copious amounts of praise heaped on him are a bit premature.

RNH and Hall have done well, but a monkey could (would) have made those picks. And I expect Yakupov to be more of the same.

The thing is, a lot of the picks have outperformed their draft position in their respective leagues after getting drafted, so that is definitely promising. But until anyone other than a #1 overall makes an impact at the NHL level, I think the praise should be kept in check a bit more.
Yeah IMO he has been given a LOT of picks in the last 3 drafts and as a result we should be expecting more than the league average in terms of picks that become everyday NHLers. If he doesn't IMO he has been a failure.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spawn View Post
Look at the drafting before Kevin Lowe took over as GM. The Oilers drafting has been pretty horrible since the mid 1980's other than top 10 picks, and even when we have ended up drafting a player who had a lengthy career in the NHL they often ended up spending the vast majority of their careers with other teams.

Hopefully our D picks can pan out a little better at least , I feel much more confident in the prospects at that position right now than at forward.

Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat, Musil, Fedun and Schultz looks like good depth at defense.
Schultz and Fedun weren't drafted so that leaves the first 4 on your list, Davidson, Bigos, Laleggia, the Swedish D whose name escapes me, and Simpson as Stu guys. That said I agree that our prospect strength at the moment is on the blueline contrary to what other teams fans may say.

IMO Hartikainen, Paajarvi, Lander, and Pitlick have our best shots as forwards to become NHL players. I'm not convinced that there is a true top 6 player in the whole lot of them, but they could all be effective nonetheless.

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I disagree because Martindale got a look with the skill guys early one, and didn't do much. 2/3 points were flukey 2nd assists IIRC. With a guy like Martindale he has to score to succeed since he isn't physical and doesn't PK.

I agree that Hamilton has a long way to go but I'm saying points don't tell the whole story with him. In his role he can not score and still be effective IMO.
Martindale does play physical although not as regularly as a guy like Pitlick. You mention points not being the whole story with Hamilton, I agree, however he also hasn't been overly physical either, and that is a must for him like it is for Pitlick IMO.

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Most players drafted outside the 1st round never make it to the NHL. The signs of proper development curve is substantially outperforming the cohort that can be assumed to contain plenty of busts.
Guys like Lander, Pitlick, Martindale, Hamilton obviously still have time, but I think unless they start putting up Hartikainen type offensive numbers in the AHL next season at the latest, they are not likely to be anything more than 3-4th liners in the NHL.
We've had 6 second rounders in the last 3 drafts, three of which were very high 2nds: 31, 31, and 32. We've also had 5 third round picks three of which were very high 3rds: 61, 62, and 63.

IMO that is a lot of picks in a quality range and a lot more than most scouting staffs could hope to have, because of this Stu and co. should not be held to the same standard as your average drafting team with 5-7 picks (some traded away or none acquired). If teams kept all of their picks and acquired none over the last 3 drafts they'd have 21 picks, Stu has had 27 and most of the time was leading off the round or close to it. He should be held to a higher standard, no doubt about it.

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11-18-2012, 04:26 PM
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I see players like Pitlick, Lander, PRV, being our 3rd line. I would be happy with that.

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11-18-2012, 04:29 PM
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I see players like Pitlick, Lander, PRV, being our 3rd line. I would be happy with that.
That would be more than fine with me, them, Harski, and Marincin succeeding would be a very solid return IMO.

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11-18-2012, 04:30 PM
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i'm not high on PRV or Lander or Pitlick or Hamilton or Martindale anymore...they just seem to be plodding along, but what do i know? and Rensfeldt and McFarland are a waste of skin and a waste of a pick!


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11-18-2012, 06:03 PM
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Interesting thread BBO.
imo its way to early for posters to be writing off any of these guys.
I've been mildly disappointed in Pitlick from the games I've seen this season, but I certainly wouldn't be tossing him in the bust pile at this point.

Just wondering if this guy http://www.eliteprospects.com/player...13161&lang=swe is the Rensfeldt that you mention in the op.
Seems to be doing OK in Sweden.

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11-18-2012, 07:16 PM
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I see players like Pitlick, Lander, PRV, being our 3rd line. I would be happy with that.
I don't think Lander has the speed, faceoffs or physical play to make up for his complete lack of offensive skill to be a third liner. He is a smart player but I donno if he can keep up with the play at the NHL level to be a reliable defensive guy.

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11-18-2012, 07:33 PM
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It's pretty much a given that each of these guys was a 5-year project when drafted. Aside from his production so far, Tyler Pitlick has shown that he has the ability to play the pro game well and brings in that combination of size and skill that the Oilers currently lack.

Out of these three guys, I'd like to see Hamilton moved while he's still a relatively known prospect. I think right now, Hartikainen has definitely solidified his spot on the big team moving forward and that leaves Hamilton as a moveable piece to potentially upgrade our defense or goaltending picture.

And like someone already said, Martindale is Martindale. Give him the 5 years and see if he pans out. There's no rush on him. If he's a player - great. If not, we're still alright up the middle moving forward.

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11-18-2012, 08:07 PM
  #25
tiger_80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spawn View Post
I don't think Lander has the speed, faceoffs or physical play to make up for his complete lack of offensive skill to be a third liner. He is a smart player but I donno if he can keep up with the play at the NHL level to be a reliable defensive guy.
Yeh, more realistic expectation for Lander is a limited minutes 4th line PK centre. 3d line centre is his maximum upside, IMHO. Many things have to go right for that to happen.

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