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Is Jim Slater one of the best 4th line C's in the league?

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11-18-2012, 11:54 AM
  #1
allan5oh
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Is Jim Slater one of the best 4th line C's in the league?

What's your take?

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11-18-2012, 12:49 PM
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Considering he's good enough to be on the third line, yet he plays on the fourth...I'd say so.

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11-18-2012, 02:28 PM
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I like Slater but I would say no... because being the best means there is no better.

Technically GST was not a 4th line last year... The Stapleton line was. They were a third line as they were averaging 3rd most minutes.... but we all know they should have been a 4th line.

GST was severly outplayed and outgunned all the time. They basically played PK as a 5-man unit, and whenever any of them played the PK they did a terrible job at it. They do have heart, and give a 110%. Problem is their output at 110% is worse than some at floating at 70%. Although, the sport being how it is, truculence, energy and emotion are an important elements to the game. I read a good article by a stats guy stating that a players positives in character and team dynamics may outweigh their outplay if they cause the rest of the team to play better, as long as their TOI is minimized to maximize results... which is why I am fine with _ST or _S_ as a 4th line.

I'm going to do things differently... I'll show the stats, explain them, and you guys can try to interpret them. Let's compare Slater to his peers (centremen who play a +RelCorsiQoC and less than 35% Ozone starts with at least 20 GP):
NameTeam TOICorsiRelQoCCorsiRelPenDiff OZS% OZF% G/60 A1/60 P/60
BOYLENYR12.280.4460.9-0.328.843.90.660.421.43
SUTTERCAR14.061.379-6.6-0.334.845.70.520.571.20
PRUSTNYR10.200.153-7.9-0.233.743.70.220.501.08
WYMANTBL9.281.169-8.2-0.230.341.60.320.811.78
PAHLSSONVAN12.211.050-9.00.529.746.60.180.430.92
THOMPSONTBL11.831.254-9.5-0.334.245.50.670.221.12
BOLLANDCHI12.291.386-9.70.532.546.30.580.451.22
GAUSTADNSH11.810.588-11.50.333.446.00.510.581.45
SLATERWPG12.320.900-27.9-0.128.540.40.750.371.25
MALHOTRAVAN9.770.490-32.6-0.113.240.60.550.321.42
Numbers from BEHINDTHENET

*all these numbers are even strength only
*TOI is self explanatory
*CorsiRelQoC is a measurement of how tough of lines they faced; larger being tougher.
*CorsiRel is how outshot/scored they were; positive=good negative=bad
*pen differential is how much they take penalties minus how much they draw /60min... more pp and less pk = negative # = good
*OZS is what % their shifts start in the ozone... lower number = tougher assignment
*OZF is how much their shift finishes in the ozone... this is more amusing as it hasn't shown to have strong correlation to talent or winning like Corsi does (probably due to it being based on too many factors/variables)
*G,A1,P/60 is their point production per TOI; I don't do secondary assists usually because they tend to come less from talent as A1 do



I've always defended Slater though, saying he's the exception in GST and his linemates are his dead weight.


Last edited by garret9: 11-18-2012 at 02:39 PM.
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11-18-2012, 02:50 PM
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To answer your question allan5oh, yeah I do think he is. He is definitely underrated and has the X factor, meaning he may not always show up on the score sheet but he him have done the little things right to prevent shots/goals/passes in his own end.


Last edited by Duir: 11-18-2012 at 03:06 PM. Reason: misspelled Allan...sorry dude
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11-18-2012, 02:55 PM
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I just realized I misread.
I think he is one of the best... but doubt he is THE best.

Although looking at my stats above he seems to be the best goal scorer of the bunch.
But doesn't seem very effective in preventing shots/scoring chances.


Last edited by garret9: 11-18-2012 at 03:18 PM.
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11-18-2012, 04:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I like Slater but I would say no... because being the best means there is no better.

Technically GST was not a 4th line last year... The Stapleton line was. They were a third line as they were averaging 3rd most minutes.... but we all know they should have been a 4th line.

GST was severly outplayed and outgunned all the time. They basically played PK as a 5-man unit, and whenever any of them played the PK they did a terrible job at it. They do have heart, and give a 110%. Problem is their output at 110% is worse than some at floating at 70%. Although, the sport being how it is, truculence, energy and emotion are an important elements to the game. I read a good article by a stats guy stating that a players positives in character and team dynamics may outweigh their outplay if they cause the rest of the team to play better, as long as their TOI is minimized to maximize results... which is why I am fine with _ST or _S_ as a 4th line.

I'm going to do things differently... I'll show the stats, explain them, and you guys can try to interpret them. Let's compare Slater to his peers (centremen who play a +RelCorsiQoC and less than 35% Ozone starts with at least 20 GP):
NameTeam TOICorsiRelQoCCorsiRelPenDiff OZS% OZF% G/60 A1/60 P/60
BOYLENYR12.280.4460.9-0.328.843.90.660.421.43
SUTTERCAR14.061.379-6.6-0.334.845.70.520.571.20
PRUSTNYR10.200.153-7.9-0.233.743.70.220.501.08
WYMANTBL9.281.169-8.2-0.230.341.60.320.811.78
PAHLSSONVAN12.211.050-9.00.529.746.60.180.430.92
THOMPSONTBL11.831.254-9.5-0.334.245.50.670.221.12
BOLLANDCHI12.291.386-9.70.532.546.30.580.451.22
GAUSTADNSH11.810.588-11.50.333.446.00.510.581.45
SLATERWPG12.320.900-27.9-0.128.540.40.750.371.25
MALHOTRAVAN9.770.490-32.6-0.113.240.60.550.321.42
Numbers from BEHINDTHENET

*all these numbers are even strength only
*TOI is self explanatory
*CorsiRelQoC is a measurement of how tough of lines they faced; larger being tougher.
*CorsiRel is how outshot/scored they were; positive=good negative=bad
*pen differential is how much they take penalties minus how much they draw /60min... more pp and less pk = negative # = good
*OZS is what % their shifts start in the ozone... lower number = tougher assignment
*OZF is how much their shift finishes in the ozone... this is more amusing as it hasn't shown to have strong correlation to talent or winning like Corsi does (probably due to it being based on too many factors/variables)
*G,A1,P/60 is their point production per TOI; I don't do secondary assists usually because they tend to come less from talent as A1 do



I've always defended Slater though, saying he's the exception in GST and his linemates are his dead weight.
In your list above, I would rate Bolland and B Sutter ahead of Slater, but I think he could compete with the rest. He had a career year last year, despite crappy line mates, so I'm betting he is a late bloomer and still has something left. Also, he is a character player and a bargain, to boot. Bolland makes over twice his salary.
I'm very happy with Slater

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11-18-2012, 04:56 PM
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Imo no, I would rather have stapleton.

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11-18-2012, 05:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
In your list above, I would rate Bolland and B Sutter ahead of Slater, but I think he could compete with the rest. He had a career year last year, despite crappy line mates, so I'm betting he is a late bloomer and still has something left. Also, he is a character player and a bargain, to boot. Bolland makes over twice his salary.
I'm very happy with Slater
I agree with all except the late bloomer bit. I'm unsure.
Last year's great boxcar stats were because he played more games than ever before and more minutes per a game than ever before. His production rate actually went down.
That being said... I will admit I could be completely wrong because he's never had seen DZS and QoC like last season before in his life (plus as you put, the offensive maverick linemates he had)... So he was climbing uphill a lot more than ever before.
YEARGPTOICorsiRelQoCCorsiRel OZS% G/60 A1/60 P/60
2007699.100.307-7.640.50.570.291.05
2008608.47-0.258-0.346.70.710.351.89
20096110.340.542-6.638.40.950.481.62
2010369.42-0.418-2.547.20.890.712.12
20117812.20.900-27.940.40.750.371.25

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11-18-2012, 05:42 PM
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I forgot about this.

Rob Volman, from Hockey Prospectus, did a write up (actually 3) on the Jets, predicting their point totals by looking at two different statsy-like prediction methods (VUKOTA and Snepsts... don't ask me what they are, way too advance stats for me lol) and also looked for career comparable players in NHL's history.

I don't always agree with Rob but it's a nice read.

Quote:
Jim Slater

Sleeper alert! We might have some good news for the late rounds of deep fantasy pools. Jim Slater has had an awfully tough defensive assignment recently, usually with anvil-like wingers weighing him down, and now the Jets might finally have attracted the type of two-way talent that will permit him to open up his offensive game.

Slater's defensive credentials are quite impressive. He's the team's best faceoff man, throws over 8.0 hits per 60 minutes, blocks shots, drew more penalties than he took for the third time in four seasons, and his on-ice save percentage of .921 last year was actually his lowest.

The trouble is that Slater's assignment has been purely defensive: for three years he's had among the lowest offensive zone start percentages on the team, all the way down to 28.5% last season. Though he has occasionally been spared from having to shut down the top lines last year, as in 2009-10, he faced the highest quality of competition on the team. He was also put back on the top penalty-killing unit.

Even though this type of role doesn't lead to a lot of scoring, especially from 30-year-olds (in December), he still managed a career high 21 points, and was on pace for 27 the year before. Not only could he continue to be good for 25 points, he could break into the 30s if given decent linemates, or any kind of offensive opportunities.
For those that want to read the other ones:
The Top-Six Forwards
Secondary Forwards
The Defensemen

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11-18-2012, 05:59 PM
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Oh yeah, him, Clutterbuck, you name it

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11-18-2012, 06:11 PM
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Oh yeah, him, Clutterbuck, you name it
Isn't Clutterbuck a winger?

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11-18-2012, 07:50 PM
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I was in Detroit last December for the 8-1 ass kicking we took from the RED Wings last year..... I was in line at the guys can ( yeah they have lineups in other NHL cities too) wearing my Jets gear........ The Gentleman infront of me introduces himself as a father of one our Jets............. Slaters Dad........I think they hail from Michigan ................ I told him his son is one of my favorite Jets and that he has to resign with the Jets as he is the Heart and soul of the team....... I like to the think that got back to Jim and that was pivotal in him inking his recent 3 year deal LOL GO JETS GO

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11-18-2012, 08:27 PM
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One of the best?
Sure.
THE best?
Not in my opinion.

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11-18-2012, 08:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
In your list above, I would rate Bolland and B Sutter ahead of Slater, but I think he could compete with the rest. He had a career year last year, despite crappy line mates, so I'm betting he is a late bloomer and still has something left. Also, he is a character player and a bargain, to boot. Bolland makes over twice his salary.
I'm very happy with Slater
I do not consider Bolland or Sutter to be 4th line centers.

For 4th line comparisons, Slater would have to stack up favorably to 4th line centers on playoff calibre teams... such as Campbell (Bos), Boyes (Buf), Stajan (Cal), Morrison (Chi), McClement (Col-now TO), Wandell (Dal), Emmerton (Det), Madden (Flo), Fraser (LA), Gaustad (Nas), Carter (NJ), Rupp (NYR), Smith (Ott), Courturier (Phi), Gordon (Pho), Adams (Pit), Handzus (SJ), Nichol (StL), Lapierre (Van), and Helpern (Was).

In that group, I might consider Gaustad, McClement and Courturier to be better 4th line centers, but none of them will likey play a 4th line role this year. So, yes, I would consider Jim Slater to be one of the best 4th line centers in the league.

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11-18-2012, 11:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
I do not consider Bolland or Sutter to be 4th line centers.

For 4th line comparisons, Slater would have to stack up favorably to 4th line centers on playoff calibre teams... such as Campbell (Bos), Boyes (Buf), Stajan (Cal), Morrison (Chi), McClement (Col-now TO), Wandell (Dal), Emmerton (Det), Madden (Flo), Fraser (LA), Gaustad (Nas), Carter (NJ), Rupp (NYR), Smith (Ott), Courturier (Phi), Gordon (Pho), Adams (Pit), Handzus (SJ), Nichol (StL), Lapierre (Van), and Helpern (Was).

In that group, I might consider Gaustad, McClement and Courturier to be better 4th line centers, but none of them will likey play a 4th line role this year. So, yes, I would consider Jim Slater to be one of the best 4th line centers in the league.
Well Slater wasn't a 4th line C last year either. He was a 3rd line C.
The reason for that list is all those players were used in the same way as Slater was.

bbbuuuuutttt if you want to compare :p you know I love running stats

Most of these guys are not very comparable to Slater, because most of these guys are sheltered bottom6 C while Slater was a shutdown bottom6 C. These guys are more comparable to Stapleton or somewhere in the middle (exceptions being Gordon, Couturier, Gausted (who was on my above list) and Halpern). Here they are in decending competition levels:
NameTeamTOICorsiRelQoCCorsiRel OZS% P/60
SLATERWPG12.320.900-27.928.51.25
GORDONPHX12.570.869-13.343.91.27
COUTURIERPHI10.770.760-3.440.31.81
GAUSTADNSH11.810.588-11.533.41.45
HALPERNWSH10.660.3032.939.21.31
LAPIERREVAN9.97-0.018-20.722.21.40
SMITHOTT11.32-0.035-5.648.31.50
BOYESBUF10.86-0.1181.953.91.27
MORRISONCHI11.72-0.246-8.230.31.05
MCCLEMENTCOL10.51-0.289-11.234.31.14
HANDZUSSJS11.77-0.364-20.546.81.45
ADAMSPIT8.35-0.374-13.045.11.31
CAMPBELLBOS10.80-0.492-24.442.21.07
STAJANCGY11.36-0.5094.848.01.30
MADDENFLA10.74-0.526-14.943.00.54
CARTERNJD9.37-0.575-11.748.30.71
WANDELLDAL9.02-0.94511.245.31.39
FRASERLAK8.37-1.118-9.246.70.86
NICHOLSTL7.54-1.220-4.348.00.70
RUPPNYR6.45-1.279-14.343.20.78
MERTONDET7.50-2.153-11.163.41.01

Now for my comparison of each to Slater. Each will get a better, worse, or "unsure":
warning: if your a fan of one of these players/teams and I insult them, realize this is a surface level look; I may be missing minor details (ex: Fehr-like bad luck)
*Gordon: almost equal competition, better corsi but with less DZ starts, similar production but more secondary assists luck... unsure
*Couturier: similar competition, better production and corsi but slightly easier zone starts... unsure
*Gaustad: similar ZS and production, half as bad corsi but half as hard competition but still shutdown role... unsure (but bad penalty diff)
*Halpern: similar production, easier QoC and ZS, treaded water corsi wise (like Antro levels)... unsure
*Lapiere: middle of the road competition, similarly bad corsi, production, and ZS... worse
*Smith: similarly as solid goal scorer as Couturier and Slater, but otherwise same as Lapiere but way easier ZS... worse
*Boyes: decently nice OZS, middle QoC, par Corsi (neither losing or wining really), similar production... worse
*Morrison: same as Boyes with slightly easier QoC but slightly losing corsi-wise and but worse production... worse
*McClement: DZS are shutdown but slightly sheltered QoC, other than that same as Morrison... probably worse but tougher call
*Handzus: first of the sheltered guys (equal QoC as Burmistrov), similar corsi and production results as Slater but easier ZS and QoC... worse
*Adams: sheltered QoC, par ZS, similar production as Slater, poor corsi... worse
*Campbell: sheltered QoC with bad corsi...too easy... but worse production, bad penalty diff, similar corsi with way easier mins... worse
*Stajan: similar production, just above par corsi, sheltered comp, par OZS... basic better corsi vs tougher mins argument... unsure
*Madden: sheltered QoC, poor corsi, almost absent production... worse
*Carter: sheltered, poor corsi, poor prodcution... I've seen this before... worse (nice pim diff though)
*Wandell: sheltered but solid corsi, similar production but easier ZS... unsure
*Fraser: RelCorsi is below par when raw corsi (not shown) is above because LAK were a possession monster team, poor production though and sheltered... probably worse
*Nichol: almost mirror image of Fraser adv stats wise but really bad penalty differential... worse
*Rupp: bad... very bad... between him and Emerton for worst of the bunch.... piss poor corsi and production with severely sheltered QoC... worse
*Emmerton: speaking of which... worse


Relative to this list, Slater faced the toughest QoC, 2nd toughest ZS, had the worst corsi, and middle of the pack production... give him some better wingmates than Glass and Thor and I bet you see that corsi go to low-middle of the pack and production go to high end. So, middle results with toughest assignment, sounds like above average but not elite to me. So for the OP, one of the best, but probably not the best.


Random thoughts:
*I thought Couturier was some god-like crazy shutdown guy beating tough mins??? He's barely treading water. No Ponikarovsky. Guess Phi has over tooted his horn. Good production though... I guess it's relative since he's a child still.
*Malholtra is Van's shutdown guy and 4th liner; he faces tougher competition than Lapiere and gets a few less mins a game at even strength too.


Last edited by garret9: 11-19-2012 at 02:52 AM.
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11-19-2012, 12:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Random thoughts:
*I thought Couturier was some god-like crazy shutdown guy beating tough mins??? He's barely treading water. No Ponikarovsky. Guess Phi has over tooted his horn. Good production though... I guess it's relative since he's a child still.
*Malholtra is Van's shutdown guy and 4th liner; he faces tougher competition than Lapiere and gets a few less mins a game at even strength too.
SHHHH! don't you ever tell the Flyers that!

I'm actually really happy to see this. By the talk you really would have assumed coots was facing toughest comp and succeeding last season. Very interesting to learn that that's actually quite far from the trouth. No matter though, any of your fancy black magic stats can easily be dismissed by what the faithful "SAW"

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11-23-2012, 11:12 AM
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I Slater isn't a bad 4th liner, but I don't think of him as elite.

I like Slater, but I think he was been greatly miscast last year. I think we all agree that he GST shouldn't have been a 3rd line, but I don't think moving Slater to the 4th line is a cure all. I think Slater needs to play a certain kind of minutes.

Jim has never proven to be much of a shut down players or to be effective on the PK, so he won't compare favorably to defensive / pk 4th liners, but I do think he is good enough to beat up on weak competition.


All that said...


I actually think Jim could be an effective 3rd line centre if he is given strong two way wingers and the line isn't relied upon to do heavy lifting. He has shown the ability to score at an ok 3rd line rate.

Slater could also do well in a 4th line role role against weak competition, but I really don't see a ton of value in a veteran as a team's sheltered 4th line C.

Even if he is elite in this role, what does that get you? You have a veteran eating minutes that could and arguably should go to somebody like Patrice Cormier and you pay twice as much for his services.

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11-23-2012, 11:18 AM
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Wanna add, I don't have a problem with Slater, he is an OK 3rd liner and a solid #4C.

It is just that I don't really understand why a team in the Jets position wants to fill a sheltered 4th line roster spot with a (relatively) high price veteran. The Jets aren't going to win the cup this year and developing a Patrice Cormier in the NHL does have value.

I would better understand the need for veteran depth in that role if the Jets were a contender.

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11-23-2012, 11:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Wanna add, I don't have a problem with Slater, he is an OK 3rd liner and a solid #4C.

It is just that I don't really understand why a team in the Jets position wants to fill a sheltered 4th line roster spot with a (relatively) high price veteran. The Jets aren't going to win the cup this year and developing a Patrice Cormier in the NHL does have value.

I would better understand the need for veteran depth in that role if the Jets were a contender.
To be fair though, we're trying to become a contender, and in order to do that we must first become a playoff team, which is where we are now in my opinion. I think this team should be a playoff team. In my own opinion of course, I take Jim Slater over a rookie (Cormier) in this scenario. You don't become a contender overnight nor can you skip steps in the process. I believe we're at the point where our core is near ready to take the next step. Generally speaking, you don't do that with allowing rookies to learn on the job.

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11-23-2012, 11:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Wanna add, I don't have a problem with Slater, he is an OK 3rd liner and a solid #4C.

It is just that I don't really understand why a team in the Jets position wants to fill a sheltered 4th line roster spot with a (relatively) high price veteran. The Jets aren't going to win the cup this year and developing a Patrice Cormier in the NHL does have value.

I would better understand the need for veteran depth in that role if the Jets were a contender.
Agreed with Guerzy, there is more to it than being a Stanley Cup contender, there are levels to build. You don't go from pushover to contender in a day, every single team that has won a cup in the past 7 years has followed the exact same progression. Rebuilding, playoff pushover, playoff contender, Stanley Cup Champion. We need to get to the playoff pushover state, and veteran like Slater is key to that compared to a rookie like Cormier, he adds leadership, poise, and depth, IMO.

I also think Slater can be the face of shutdown line. I am hoping that the Jets with increased depth move to a rolling 4 line team, with the 4th line anchored by Slater taking the tough shutdown minutes, while the top 3 lines are even spread out rolling scoring lines. He really needs improved wingers, Thorburn and Glass/Miettinen is not good enough. We need some defensive minded wingers to add onto the sides for him on the 4th line. Cormier might be an option at LW actually.

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11-23-2012, 11:43 AM
  #21
Guerzy
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Agreed with Guerzy, there is more to it than being a Stanley Cup contender, there are levels to build. You don't go from pushover to contender in a day, every single team that has won a cup in the past 7 years has followed the exact same progression. Rebuilding, playoff pushover, playoff contender, Stanley Cup Champion. We need to get to the playoff pushover state, and veteran like Slater is key to that compared to a rookie like Cormier, he adds leadership, poise, and depth, IMO.

I also think Slater can be the face of shutdown line. I am hoping that the Jets with increased depth move to a rolling 4 line team, with the 4th line anchored by Slater taking the tough shutdown minutes, while the top 3 lines are even spread out rolling scoring lines. He really needs improved wingers, Thorburn and Glass/Miettinen is not good enough. We need some defensive minded wingers to add onto the sides for him on the 4th line. Cormier might be an option at LW actually.
So you and I are on the same page , as I was reading your post I was thinking word for word what you stated at the end of your post re; better wingers; possibly Cormier.


Last edited by Guerzy: 11-23-2012 at 11:52 AM.
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Old
11-23-2012, 01:49 PM
  #22
truck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Agreed with Guerzy, there is more to it than being a Stanley Cup contender, there are levels to build. You don't go from pushover to contender in a day, every single team that has won a cup in the past 7 years has followed the exact same progression. Rebuilding, playoff pushover, playoff contender, Stanley Cup Champion. We need to get to the playoff pushover state, and veteran like Slater is key to that compared to a rookie like Cormier, he adds leadership, poise, and depth, IMO.

I also think Slater can be the face of shutdown line. I am hoping that the Jets with increased depth move to a rolling 4 line team, with the 4th line anchored by Slater taking the tough shutdown minutes, while the top 3 lines are even spread out rolling scoring lines. He really needs improved wingers, Thorburn and Glass/Miettinen is not good enough. We need some defensive minded wingers to add onto the sides for him on the 4th line. Cormier might be an option at LW actually.
If they can get some tough minutes out of him, it makes sense but...

He has never really handled tough minutes well.
In general, fourth liners are sheltered, because they are your worst line.

Not completely against it, but I like easy minutes to go to goal scorers.

Now, if they are going to run the 3rd and 4th lines as co shut down lines or something, and it gives easy ice to Kane, Burmi, Welly and or Olli... Giver. I could see Noel running something like that.

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Old
11-23-2012, 02:24 PM
  #23
garret9
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
Now, if they are going to run the 3rd and 4th lines as co shut down lines or something, and it gives easy ice to Kane, Burmi, Welly and or Olli... Giver. I could see Noel running something like that.
Weekend so I had some time to quickly read over some stuff.

This is what I was hoping for the Jets and some teams succesfully do this. Slater does have some talent that is wanted on shutdown lines: faceoff, offensive edge, nice hits/min, solid penalty differential... He just needs 2 way wingers who are solid enough to take middle competition. Then have Burmi centre the 3rd line that takes a bit tougher assignment than the 4th line... But enough too lighten the load on the other.

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