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Top 20 Defensemen Defensively(as voted by HF)

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Old
11-20-2012, 09:55 AM
  #151
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MastuhNinks View Post
Garrison is good defensively, I just don't think he's better than those other guys.

And that article's methodology is a joke. Just simply looking at GA ON/60 without context (e.x. GA OFF/60) is silly. Stats like that are so heavily influenced by team defensive play and perhaps most importantly, goaltending. Looking at 2010-2011 goaltending stats, only 5 of those guys (Carlson, Schultz, Grossman, Stuart, and White, worth noting that only one of those guys, Carlson, was in the top 15) were on teams whose starting goaltender had a below average (16th or worse) SV%, and only 2 of those guys were on teams whose starting goaltender was in the bottom 3rd (21st or worse) in SV% (Stuart and White, 24th and 27th). It's not a coincidence that almost all of the guys on the list had good starting goaltenders.


As deckerky has explained, that list includes GA ON/60 ES and PK _and_ Qualcomp. It's all three, so there is a cross section of stats. However, it still isn't a definitive list - it's just what put him on the radar.



If you delve deeper into his statistics then you would understand how he differs from the players mentioned. I can point out why, if it's worth anything...? Regardless, his D over 2 years has been impressive. So while other 2way D with longer NHL track records might get more recognition, what Garrison has done in his NHL tenure cannot be overlooked. If we are talking ability, and not pedigree, he is right there with the best.

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Old
11-20-2012, 11:50 AM
  #152
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deckercky View Post
Wasn't it a balance of a number of stats including GA ON/60, CORSI and Qualcomp?

Also, couldn't it be argued that having strong defensive defencemen must help goalies' save percentage.

I think the Canucks are heavily favoured from their team overall having a statistically dominant season in 2010-2011 on that list for sure (led in a lot of categories, more than most President Trophy winners). Looking at that list, there's a lot of names which I think fit the defensive defencemen mold very well, enough that I think it's a good starting point. You have to control for players having an abnormally good year and stuff, but a similar comparison over a number of years should give you a good picture of the best defensive defencemen.
I don't think you understand, simply looking at GA ON/60 alone is silly and pretty much useless. Which is why the list is dominated by players with good goaltenders. I'm not saying Garrison is a bad defensemen, I'm saying that the article the user used to justify it was very flawed. I actually like Garrison, I think he's one of the most underrated offseason acquisitions, I just don't think he's quite on the level of some of the guys who were omitted from the list. I'll agree that maybe I shouldn't have picked on him like I did with Hedman and Johnson, but my point was never really that those players are bad defensively, just not top 20.

For argument's sake, let's say both of these players in this example have a similar Corsi Rel QoC and Corsi Rel QoT.
Player A has a GA ON/60 of 2.69, and a GA OFF/60 of 3.25.
Player B has a GA ON/60 of 2.50, and a GA OFF/60 of 2.45.

Is Player B really the more impressive defensive player? Should Player A be punished for playing on a team that clearly has some defensive problems, even though his team is significantly better when he's on the ice?

Now, Garrison's GA ON/60 actually is better than his GA OFF/60 by a good amount, but that's not really the point, the point is that heavily team-influenced statistics are useless without context. Just amalgamating a random choice of defensive metrics doesn't make a lot of sense unless there's a method to it (e.x. If comparing Relative Corsi to Corsi Rel QoC, you should also take into account Corsi Rel QoT, likewise GA ON/60 without taking into account GA OFF/60 doesn't mean much).

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Old
11-20-2012, 12:42 PM
  #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by source View Post
You could tell by watching the games, man. I don't deny that the Senators played better as a whole (I could tell that from watching the games too!), but you'll notice that Kuba had one of the most significant turnarounds of all the Sens players.

There's no chance he gets the contract he got this summer after a season like 09-10.
Yeah, Kuba had lingering issues with his broken leg in 10-11 and didnn't really look healthy and comfortable until 11-12, especially when it came to pivoting and 1-on-1 play down low. In fact, his play may have had something to do with the fact that Brian Elliott had the worst SV% in Ottawa and the best SV% in St Louis. If Kuba's on-ice shot numbers were the same, it may owe as much to the fact that he played in a similar role with similar players as it does to his individual play.

I understand that plus-minus may not be very meaningful for evaluating Kuba's performance but I'm not sure the shot plus-minus metrics are either. He's a supporting minutes eater who is only one of five skaters on the ice.

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Old
11-20-2012, 01:00 PM
  #154
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gunnin54 View Post
What about douglas murray from SJ only has 3 goals but when he got that fractured atoms apple we sure missed him
How about.... no. Murray is a beast, but he doesn't even deserve half a thought for inclusion in the top 20.

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Old
11-20-2012, 01:08 PM
  #155
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I still think PK Subban is a better defensive defenseman than an offensive defenseman.

He deserve some credit. Maybe not top 20 but HM at least.

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Old
11-21-2012, 08:40 AM
  #156
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MastuhNinks View Post
I don't think you understand, simply looking at GA ON/60 alone is silly and pretty much useless. Which is why the list is dominated by players with good goaltenders. I'm not saying Garrison is a bad defensemen, I'm saying that the article the user used to justify it was very flawed. I actually like Garrison, I think he's one of the most underrated offseason acquisitions, I just don't think he's quite on the level of some of the guys who were omitted from the list. I'll agree that maybe I shouldn't have picked on him like I did with Hedman and Johnson, but my point was never really that those players are bad defensively, just not top 20.


The article isn't meant to be wholly conclusive. No article really can be. It takes 3 stats: GA/60 ES, GA/60 PK, and Qualcomp --> So the article isn't solely based on GA/60.




Quote:
For argument's sake, let's say both of these players in this example have a similar Corsi Rel QoC and Corsi Rel QoT.
Player A has a GA ON/60 of 2.69, and a GA OFF/60 of 3.25.
Player B has a GA ON/60 of 2.50, and a GA OFF/60 of 2.45.

Is Player B really the more impressive defensive player? Should Player A be punished for playing on a team that clearly has some defensive problems, even though his team is significantly better when he's on the ice?


What are player A and B's Qualcomp and GA/60 PK? Further, what are the players' CorsiRelQComp? Alone, GA/60 ES only gives you a snapshot, no one is denying that I don't think. But again, that article uses 3 metrics, not 1. And then we can delve even further into the remaining stats.





Quote:
Now, Garrison's GA ON/60 actually is better than his GA OFF/60 by a good amount, but that's not really the point, the point is that heavily team-influenced statistics are useless without context. Just amalgamating a random choice of defensive metrics doesn't make a lot of sense unless there's a method to it (e.x. If comparing Relative Corsi to Corsi Rel QoC, you should also take into account Corsi Rel QoT, likewise GA ON/60 without taking into account GA OFF/60 doesn't mean much).



I agree. Shall we take all of these into account to come to a conclusion about Garrison vs. the other names on the top20? Where would you like to start?

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Old
11-21-2012, 09:16 AM
  #157
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Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh.
I know that Ryan is more like an all-around defenseman, but still damn good defensively..

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Old
11-21-2012, 10:30 AM
  #158
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Originally Posted by Yourface View Post
I seriously cannot believe that Hedman made the top 20... Every single time I've watched him play, he's stood out as one of his team's worst defensive players. I don't care about the statistics people bring up, I know his elevated TOI makes him stand out somewhat but all I can say is EYES DON'T LIE!!! Hedman is atrocious defensively!!!!!!! There was a game in particular last year where he was getting dangled out of his jock by Mr. Band-Aid Ales Hemsky, almost every time he stepped on the ice. I was like WTF THIS IS A SECOND OVERALL PICK?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

Anyways, his inclusion on this list makes me go:
x 1,000,000

Smid******>>>>Hedman RIGHT NOW, Hedman will most definitely be better in a couple years though.

I think Braydon Coburn is overrated, as well as Duncan Keith if we're just talking about last year.
lmao, post of the year

Hedman is os underrated in these boards, whatever.

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Old
11-21-2012, 12:41 PM
  #159
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Suprised by Hedman, everytime the Isles play Tampa, he makes a bone-head move or gets undressed by Tavares.

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Old
11-21-2012, 02:02 PM
  #160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MastuhNinks View Post
I don't think you understand, simply looking at GA ON/60 alone is silly and pretty much useless. Which is why the list is dominated by players with good goaltenders. I'm not saying Garrison is a bad defensemen, I'm saying that the article the user used to justify it was very flawed. I actually like Garrison, I think he's one of the most underrated offseason acquisitions, I just don't think he's quite on the level of some of the guys who were omitted from the list. I'll agree that maybe I shouldn't have picked on him like I did with Hedman and Johnson, but my point was never really that those players are bad defensively, just not top 20.

For argument's sake, let's say both of these players in this example have a similar Corsi Rel QoC and Corsi Rel QoT.
Player A has a GA ON/60 of 2.69, and a GA OFF/60 of 3.25.
Player B has a GA ON/60 of 2.50, and a GA OFF/60 of 2.45.

Is Player B really the more impressive defensive player? Should Player A be punished for playing on a team that clearly has some defensive problems, even though his team is significantly better when he's on the ice?

Now, Garrison's GA ON/60 actually is better than his GA OFF/60 by a good amount, but that's not really the point, the point is that heavily team-influenced statistics are useless without context. Just amalgamating a random choice of defensive metrics doesn't make a lot of sense unless there's a method to it (e.x. If comparing Relative Corsi to Corsi Rel QoC, you should also take into account Corsi Rel QoT, likewise GA ON/60 without taking into account GA OFF/60 doesn't mean much).
Goals for/against don't matter.

Well, they do matter, because that's what determines who wins the games, but judging a player individually by goals for/against is an absolutely awful way to approach the situation. They're borderline useless.

Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
In fact, [Kuba's] play may have had something to do with the fact that Brian Elliott had the worst SV% in Ottawa and the best SV% in St Louis.
This is why we don't make up stories or narratives to fit the data - they're usually wrong.

Kuba in '10-'11 (even strength)
Time periodKuba's on-ice sv%Elliott EVSV%Leclaire EVSV%Anderson EVSV%Lehner EVSV%Brodeur EVSV%
First quarter of season0.8840.9140.859   
Second quarter of season0.8770.8920.957  0.778
Third quarter of season0.8730.856 0.9520.8800.818
Fourth quarter of season0.911  0.928  
(McElhinney not included)

Quote:
If Kuba's on-ice shot numbers were the same, it may owe as much to the fact that he played in a similar role with similar players as it does to his individual play.
Top 5 defense partners in '09-'10:
1) Karlsson (327min)
2) Phillips (207min)
3) Campoli (139min)
4) Lee (33min)
5) Volchenkov (17min)

Top 5 defense partners in '10-'11:
1) Karlsson (428min) +101min
2) Butler (147min) +147min
3) Lee (131min) +98min
4) Gonchar (127min) +127min
5) Campoli (66min) -73min

He played less than half as much with Campoli, had never before played with Gonchar or Butler, quadrupled the time he spent with Lee, added over a hundred minutes with Karlsson, and played 160 minutes less with Phillips.

Quote:
I understand that plus-minus may not be very meaningful for evaluating Kuba's performance but I'm not sure the shot plus-minus metrics are either. He's a supporting minutes eater who is only one of five skaters on the ice.
I'm not saying his shot +/- is 100% driven by Kuba. I'm saying that his performance from year to year was very similar, and the %s that are out of his control (how well the opposing goalie and his own goalie played when he was on the ice, versus how well they played when he was on the bench) were wild. I picked Kuba as an example because they're pretty radical differences.

Also, I'm not sure what you mean by "supporting minutes eater"... He played 16:06 per game at even strength, plus 2:29/game shorthanded and 2:07/game on the powerplay. "Supporting minutes" players don't typically average almost 21 minutes per game.

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Old
11-21-2012, 03:39 PM
  #161
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I think McDongah is slightly overrated in this poll, I'd put him 8-12.

I find M. Staal quite overrated. Not bad, but he gets praised as being a top defenseman in the league and I don't agree with that. I think Girardi is the far superior defenseman, I'd put him somewhere in the 15-25. Staal a bit lower.

I also think Braydon Coburn is quite overrated.

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Old
11-21-2012, 03:55 PM
  #162
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I didn't know Garrison would rank that highly.

I am happy.

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Old
11-21-2012, 04:01 PM
  #163
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Originally Posted by huntison View Post
I didn't know Garrison would rank that highly.

I am happy.
Well don't take this list seriously... It's quite horrible.

Hedman

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Old
11-21-2012, 04:03 PM
  #164
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Originally Posted by AfroThunder396 View Post
I think McDongah is slightly overrated in this poll, I'd put him 8-12.

I find M. Staal quite overrated. Not bad, but he gets praised as being a top defenseman in the league and I don't agree with that. I think Girardi is the far superior defenseman, I'd put him somewhere in the 15-25. Staal a bit lower.

I also think Braydon Coburn is quite overrated.

Agree with all of this, except the part about McDonagh.
Add Hedman to the list of extremely overrateds as well.

I'm also quite surprised with Garrison's ranking but honestly, I haven't seen enough of him to make a proper assessment so I'll give him the benefit pf the doubt.


Last edited by franfrey*: 11-21-2012 at 04:28 PM.
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11-21-2012, 05:09 PM
  #165
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Hedman is good defensively, but it's not like you guys watch Tampa so whatever.

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Old
11-21-2012, 05:13 PM
  #166
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Originally Posted by bottomofthefoodchain View Post
Hedman is good defensively, but it's not like you guys watch Tampa so whatever.
I've watched enough of him the last couple years (especially last year being a Jets and Oilers fan) to know that he's DEFINITELY not among the top 20 NHL defensemen defensively.

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11-21-2012, 05:34 PM
  #167
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Originally Posted by eklunds source View Post
This is why we don't make up stories or narratives to fit the data - they're usually wrong.

Kuba in '10-'11 (even strength)
Time periodKuba's on-ice sv%Elliott EVSV%Leclaire EVSV%Anderson EVSV%Lehner EVSV%Brodeur EVSV%
First quarter of season0.8840.9140.859   
Second quarter of season0.8770.8920.957  0.778
Third quarter of season0.8730.856 0.9520.8800.818
Fourth quarter of season0.911  0.928  
(McElhinney not included)
Let's go back to our earlier exchange about goalie vs skaters responsibility for SV%. Doesn't Brian Elliott's complete turnaround in going from Ottawa to St Louis make a pretty strong case that the team in front of the goaltender matters for SV%? It was a statistical impossibility otherwise. And we know that Kuba was part of that team in Ottawa. We also know that he broke his leg early in the season, and appeared to struggle upon his return. Maybe the statistical tools you are using aren't powerful enough to spot an in-season decline in a player's performance. Doesn't mean that such things don't exist.

And I'm not fabricating a narrative to fit the data here. I'm an Ottawa fan who watched Kuba play as the events that make up the data took place, giving my subjective observations of those events.

Quote:
Originally Posted by eklunds source View Post
Top 5 defense partners in '09-'10:
1) Karlsson (327min)
2) Phillips (207min)
3) Campoli (139min)
4) Lee (33min)
5) Volchenkov (17min)

Top 5 defense partners in '10-'11:
1) Karlsson (428min) +101min
2) Butler (147min) +147min
3) Lee (131min) +98min
4) Gonchar (127min) +127min
5) Campoli (66min) -73min

He played less than half as much with Campoli, had never before played with Gonchar or Butler, quadrupled the time he spent with Lee, added over a hundred minutes with Karlsson, and played 160 minutes less with Phillips.
FYI Butler is a winger.

I was actually thinking of 11-12 when I was talking about his role, but I guess you were comparing to 09-10. In any case Karlsson was his primary partner in all 3 seasons, so there is some similarity, but 09-10 Karlsson is not the same as 11-12 Karlsson.

I believe Kuba played top pairing minutes and QoC in both seasons too.


Quote:
Originally Posted by eklunds source View Post
I'm not saying his shot +/- is 100% driven by Kuba. I'm saying that his performance from year to year was very similar, and the %s that are out of his control (how well the opposing goalie and his own goalie played when he was on the ice, versus how well they played when he was on the bench) were wild. I picked Kuba as an example because they're pretty radical differences.

Also, I'm not sure what you mean by "supporting minutes eater"... He played 16:06 per game at even strength, plus 2:29/game shorthanded and 2:07/game on the powerplay. "Supporting minutes" players don't typically average almost 21 minutes per game.
I think your statements are ahead of the evidence again. You're basically defining performance as on-ice shot metrics and dismissing everything else as out of his control or irrelevant. Shot metrics are crude, team-based stats that include the performance of many other players and fail to capture some aspects of performance. Just because they can't see a difference doesn't mean none exists.

Kuba is a quality player who can play in all situations - but he plays basically a supporting role in all situations. He's a big, non-physical d-man who has good skills but isn't an offensive creator. In any given situation he can contribute but isn't a difference maker.That's what I mean by a supporting player.

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Old
11-21-2012, 07:09 PM
  #168
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11-21-2012, 08:16 PM
  #169
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What you just provided is fine. My point was, the 3 statistics you pointed earlier don't say anything. Hits and blocked shots aren't great indicators of defensive play. And playing the toughest minutes in Edmonton doesn't say much either.
The toughest minutes in Edmonton are exactly the same as the toughest minutes for a similar conference team, like the Hawks. They're playing against the same players. I used Keith and Seabrook as an example as their QoC is very similar to Smid's (1.335 and 1.099 respectively compared to Smid's 1.101)

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11-23-2012, 04:06 AM
  #170
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Dropped by to recommend Alex Edler
nope

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Old
11-23-2012, 12:00 PM
  #171
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homer vote for hamonic...

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12-01-2012, 11:04 AM
  #172
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So why is Erik Johnson so high?

Example for all of the CORSI lovers. He faced worse competition than Detroit defensemen Ian White and Niklas Kronwall. White and Kronwall were on the ice for lower GAA than they were off for. Johnson was off the ice for lower than he was on for.

By comparison, his former partner in Colorado, Kyle Quincey, faced slightly weaker competition (though neither faced very tough competition). Quincey was on for lower GAA than he was off for.

White and Quincey are considered mediocre defensively. And while I'm mentioning White, I might as well mention Dion Phaneuf. Phaneuf faced a slightly higher QoC than White (the main player he was traded for), but had a significantly worse GA On/GA Off than White did. Just thought I'd toss that in for everyone who voted for Phaneuf and considers Phaneuf a great shutdown guy while considering White trash.

Not that I'm saying White is better defensively than Phaneuf... but he certainly isn't chopped liver.

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