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Is Alfie a HOF'er?

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11-22-2012, 11:18 AM
  #101
TheDevilMadeMe
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
Yeah, but there's an asterisk to go along with most of the other names as to why they're not significantly ahead of Alfredsson.

1. Jagr missed three seasons
2. Thornton missed one season and was an infamously slow career starter
4. Selanne played four seasons on a bad leg before getting surgery
6. Hossa missed two seasons
7. Recchi missed one season and peaked prior to the sample
8. Sakic missed three seasons
10. Lidstrom is a defenseman


I really don't see it. I mean, we can run a spreadsheet of Keith Tkachuk's best stretch and it's going to make him look like the third-best goal scorer of his era to Jagr and Selanne. Doesn't mean it's necessarily true.
See previous post. Even if you expand the time frame back to 1993-94 (two years before Alfredsson started and the first season scoring started to really drop off), Alfredsson still looks good.

As for Tkachuk, I think most people think he'd be a HHOFer if he wasn't so terrible in the playoffs. His regular season resume would be good enough if it weren't for the rest.

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11-22-2012, 11:21 AM
  #102
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
1995-96 was a high scoring year, higher than 1994-95.
right. that "1996" was my stumbling block.

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11-22-2012, 11:37 AM
  #103
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Some say Bernie Ferdoko of the blues should not be i Hall but he was the face of the blues for over a decade.Alfie is the face of Senators and will be in hall at some point.Questions are many should Steve Shutt or Clark Gillies be in hall.Being in the Hall is more than stats.Scotty Bowman has Steve Yzerman at number 25 in his sellection of the top players.I think Scotty knows more about players than all of us combined
good comparison. another guy who mostly peaked as a fringe top ten scorer, but whose regular season scoring was remarkably consistent (i'm talking federko here).

the difference is that federko has more top tens in points (five to alfredsson's three), and seven top tens in assists. more important, federko led generally weaker teams to generally greater playoff success. he pulled a "forsberg" in '86 when he led the playoffs in scoring (tied with gilmour) without even making it out of the third round.

i don't think alfredsson is as bad a playoff performer as he had been considered pre-'07. but i also don't think he was federko calibre, at least not outside of his one big year. i don't want to say federko played on bad teams, because those blues were solid playoff teams and had some good players (peak liut, brian sutter, mullen, young gilmour, ramage, but not all at the same time), but i think we can probably say that alfredsson's weirdly late peak of the '06 and '07 seasons was somewhat affected by playing on a line with peak dany heatley (back to back 50 goal seasons) and spezza hitting his stride (the degree to which it was affected is probably the important question here). and without that blip alfredsson's regular season peak probably looks identical to federko's, and his playoff peak is solidly behind.

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11-22-2012, 11:46 AM
  #104
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It would be a nice gesture by the Hall to recognize the diminished offensive output of players who played a large part of their careers in the dead puck era.

I honestly think that if Sundin makes it in, I'm not sure why Alfredsson wouldn't.

Sundin had a few more seasons prior to dead puck, Alfredsson had the Pizza line for a few years, both exceeded 1,000 points, both were Captains of their teams, both didn't win the Cup (although Alfie did lead the playoffs in scoring), and neither had a ton of individual hardware.

I think longevity should be a factor, along with consistency, leadership and community-liaison qualities (he won the King Clancy) and his defensive play and work ethic which very few elite players have to the same level as Alfredsson.

Ultimately, I don't think there are that many contemporaries who will be eligible, so it would be nice to see a few guys from a period of hockey that a lot of people would rather just forget about.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov
but i think we can probably say that alfredsson's weirdly late peak of the '06 and '07 seasons was somewhat affected by playing on a line with peak dany heatley (back to back 50 goal seasons) and spezza hitting his stride (the degree to which it was affected is probably the important question here). and without that blip alfredsson's regular season peak probably looks identical to federko's, and his playoff peak is solidly behind.
Coincidentally, the blip also occurs when Bryan Murray took over as coach from the remarkably stingy and defensive-system oriented Jacques Martin, who rolled 4 lines and didn't play Alfredsson on the PK.

Perreault gets allowances for rink size but Alfredsson gets none for playing for a trap-happy coach during the most defensive era in modern hockey history?


Last edited by NyQuil: 11-22-2012 at 12:05 PM.
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11-22-2012, 01:30 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
five years ago, i would have (and did) pushed for alfredsson. maybe even three years ago.

now, i'm not so sure.

five years ago, with him leading the sens' finals run fresh in our memories, we either thought he'd turned a corner playoff-wise, or kind of forgot about all of the sens' miserable playoff runs previous to '07. even three years ago, it seemed like there was more where '07 alfredsson came from.

but then he fell back to being a PPG scorer, never made it out of the first round again, and then a couple of years ago his play fell off a cliff.

looking back at his whole career, what i thought was going to get him in-- the longtime pillar of the franchise thing, the heart and soul thing, and the best player on a team that went to the finals thing-- don't seem as impressive. my argument for him then would have been the patrik elias argument. now i think the best argument for alfredsson is the gartner argument-- and i don't think that aflredsson can fake his way into the HHOF with longevity and consistency the way gartner did because his era didn't facilitate the monster career numbers.

now i'd sooner induct alffie than gartner, and he certainly peaked higher. but after the one year when he was a top five scorer, he just has less than a handful of finishes where he was barely top ten. very gartner-esque. add to that the very gartner-esque playoff record (the '07 run excepted), and i don't know that i could put him above elias, who for me is something a cut-off guy for that era.
I just wanted to point out that Gartner is in no way in Alfie's class as a producer.

these are just rough numbers taken from a spreadsheet quickly, and do not account for ties (i.e. a 33rd might actually be part of a 4-way tie for 30th) but does fine for illustrative purposes.

Gartner's best points finishes: 11, 17, 26, 30, 31, 31, 40, 42, 43, 43
Alfredsson's best: 5, 8, 9, 17, 18, 20, 25, 27, 32, 47

Alfredsson's 9th best offensive season is approximately as impressive as Gartner's 4th, even before you take the larger league and deeper talent pool into consideration.

then there is their respective two-way games. Gartner's has actually gotten pretty underrated here. I've realized after reading a lot of old scouting reports that he was a lot more gutsy and responsible than I usually gave him credit for (not a Brian Propp, but more like a Joe Mullen than a peter Bondra). But Alfredsson obviously has him beaten in these areas as well.

In the playoffs, Gartner has three more points in 11 more games, but played in an era with much higher scoring and when making the playoffs was easier to do.

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11-22-2012, 01:40 PM
  #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
good comparison. another guy who mostly peaked as a fringe top ten scorer, but whose regular season scoring was remarkably consistent (i'm talking federko here).

the difference is that federko has more top tens in points (five to alfredsson's three), and seven top tens in assists. more important, federko led generally weaker teams to generally greater playoff success. he pulled a "forsberg" in '86 when he led the playoffs in scoring (tied with gilmour) without even making it out of the third round.

i don't think alfredsson is as bad a playoff performer as he had been considered pre-'07. but i also don't think he was federko calibre, at least not outside of his one big year. i don't want to say federko played on bad teams, because those blues were solid playoff teams and had some good players (peak liut, brian sutter, mullen, young gilmour, ramage, but not all at the same time), but i think we can probably say that alfredsson's weirdly late peak of the '06 and '07 seasons was somewhat affected by playing on a line with peak dany heatley (back to back 50 goal seasons) and spezza hitting his stride (the degree to which it was affected is probably the important question here). and without that blip alfredsson's regular season peak probably looks identical to federko's, and his playoff peak is solidly behind.
a few things about this:

1) Federko's a center,and centers are going to naturally get more points. Comparing them to wingers isn't 100% fair.

2) talking about Federko's assist finishes in addition to his points finishes is just double dipping, and glosses over his rather unimpressive goal scoring.

3) in points finishes, he doesn't do any better than Alfie: 8, 9, 9, 9, 11, 12, 21, 21, 25, 47. His 4th, 5th, and 6th seasons look better there, and his best season looks worse. The rest is splitting hairs. In "percentage of #2", he is behind Alfredsson by about 4-5%.

4) in the playoffs, obviously having a 35% better PPG average looks nicer, but scoring in the playoffs from 1978-1989 was 38% higher than in 1997-2012, so it's really not as nice as it looks. Also, 90 playoff games isn't a hell of a lot when it's the 1980s and 16 of 21 teams make the playoffs, particularly in the norris division, where the Leafs and Stars took turns bending over for the other four. Starting in 1984, The Blues were guaranteed a playoff spot, and a series against a very bad team (69, 62, 69, 70, 70 points).

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11-22-2012, 04:32 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
See previous post. Even if you expand the time frame back to 1993-94 (two years before Alfredsson started and the first season scoring started to really drop off), Alfredsson still looks good.

As for Tkachuk, I think most people think he'd be a HHOFer if he wasn't so terrible in the playoffs. His regular season resume would be good enough if it weren't for the rest.
All you're doing is shifting the target range that a player needed to have his best years. Yes, he's had the third most points since he, himself, came into the league. But not every player is on Alfredsson's time table. He has 4 more points than Thornton. He's six-and-a-half years older. 9 more points than Iginla; Alfredsson is four-and-a-half years older. 67 points ahead of Sakic since 1995-96; Sakic is missing a giant chunk of his career. Same with Recchi, same with Sundin, same with Modano, etc.

It's a bad way to evaluate players. It's the same thing with all of that Best Player of the Decade stuff that everyone is so fascinated with. You can't expect to get a fair list when you compare 10 or 20 years of someone's career to the beginning 5 or 10 or the latter 5 or 10 of another's career.

I mean, who does Alfredsson get fairly compared against in a 1995-96 to 2011-12 sample? Do you know how many players have actually played a full 40-game season every year of that sample?

1 Daniel Alfredsson 1996 2012 OTT NHL 16
2 Jason Arnott 1996 2012 TOT NHL 16
3 Radek Dvorak 1996 2012 TOT NHL 16
4 Roman Hamrlik 1996 2012 TOT NHL 16
5 Ed Jovanovski 1996 2012 TOT NHL 16
6 Nicklas Lidstrom 1996 2012 DET NHL 16
7 Sean O'Donnell 1996 2012 TOT NHL 16
8 Brian Rolston 1996 2012 TOT NHL 16
9 Ryan Smyth 1996 2012 TOT NHL 16

Everyone else is at an automatic disadvantage when you look specifically at the career range of one specific player. Look and see how many HOF forwards you can count within 200 GP of Alfredsson who don't have more points, great seasons prior to 1995-96, or more years left in their career to finalize such an argument.

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11-22-2012, 04:54 PM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
All you're doing is shifting the target range that a player needed to have his best years. Yes, he's had the third most points since he, himself, came into the league. But not every player is on Alfredsson's time table. He has 4 more points than Thornton. He's six-and-a-half years older. 9 more points than Iginla; Alfredsson is four-and-a-half years older. 67 points ahead of Sakic since 1995-96; Sakic is missing a giant chunk of his career. Same with Recchi, same with Sundin, same with Modano, etc.

It's a bad way to evaluate players. It's the same thing with all of that Best Player of the Decade stuff that everyone is so fascinated with. You can't expect to get a fair list when you compare 10 or 20 years of someone's career to the beginning 5 or 10 or the latter 5 or 10 of another's career.

I mean, who does Alfredsson get fairly compared against in a 1995-96 to 2011-12 sample? Do you know how many players have actually played a full 40-game season every year of that sample?

1 Daniel Alfredsson 1996 2012 OTT NHL 16
2 Jason Arnott 1996 2012 TOT NHL 16
3 Radek Dvorak 1996 2012 TOT NHL 16
4 Roman Hamrlik 1996 2012 TOT NHL 16
5 Ed Jovanovski 1996 2012 TOT NHL 16
6 Nicklas Lidstrom 1996 2012 DET NHL 16
7 Sean O'Donnell 1996 2012 TOT NHL 16
8 Brian Rolston 1996 2012 TOT NHL 16
9 Ryan Smyth 1996 2012 TOT NHL 16

Everyone else is at an automatic disadvantage when you look specifically at the career range of one specific player. Look and see how many HOF forwards you can count within 200 GP of Alfredsson who don't have more points, great seasons prior to 1995-96, or more years left in their career to finalize such an argument.
You're preaching to the choir. I said earlier that I hate using the exact range of a player's career for just this reason. The post you quoted was from 1993-94 to 2011-12, a range of 18 years, of which Alfredsson himself missed the first two.

Like it or not, the HHOF has always taken career totals into account. That worked when scoring was constantly on the rise (as it was from basically the 1950s through the 1980s). But dead puck era players need to be compared against their own and when doing so, it looks hard to keep Alfredsson out, especially when you consider that he brought more than just points

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11-22-2012, 05:13 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by NyQuil View Post
Perreault gets allowances for rink size but Alfredsson gets none for playing for a trap-happy coach during the most defensive era in modern hockey history?
Why should he? The Senators under Martin were just as good (if not better) offensively as they were defensively.

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11-22-2012, 07:08 PM
  #110
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To play Devil's Advocate, I would claim that basing an argument on what player X did in decade Y can create somewhat of an artificial selection. It's all well and good that Alfredsson was 3rd or 4th in scoring during the '00s, but if you take a 10 (well, 9) season span from his entry into the league until the 2004-05 lockout, he's 24th in scoring. From 2004-05 to the present he is 16th in scoring. Not bad at all, that should go without saying, but it shows his relative strength a little more clearly.

In the early '00s a bunch of the league's stars of the '90s retired or fell off in production (chief among them, Gretzky and Lemieux) and that level of talent really wasn't replaced until after the lockout when the likes of Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, and Stamkos appeared. The end result is that Alfredsson's scoring rank in the '00s is misleading, and shows how artificial a criteria like that can be.
It's scoring over an entire decade for Pete's sake. I'm sure we can do the above split for other players, outside of true elite talents that make their entire career look a little worse in a particular light.

It's pretty interesting to note that every player that has been top 5 in every decade is in the Hall.

The only quibbling seems to be the most recent decade and I think it's a failure to realize the drop in scoring (in raw stats) in a more difficult league after a golden era of scoring.

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11-22-2012, 07:37 PM
  #111
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If Bure made the HOF then Alfie should be a no-brainer. HoF for him.


Last edited by HockeyFan100: 11-22-2012 at 08:06 PM.
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11-22-2012, 07:57 PM
  #112
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Neither of your sentences make sense to me. How is it not valid to point out that if you isolate only the years of one person's career, you're knee-capping every player who isn't the same exact age?
Hey! Ask HFBoards, not me.

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11-22-2012, 08:05 PM
  #113
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The knock I have on him is that while his playoff career looks average (at best) on the surface the truth is his production got worse as the playoffs wore on. Look it up. Plus if there is one team that probably should have won a Cup in the 2000s it's Ottawa. It is very arguable that a strong playoff performance by Alfredsson gives them the Cup at least once. Other than 2007, Alfredsson was not a good playoff performer and I think we tend to gloss over this.

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11-22-2012, 08:26 PM
  #114
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Big Phil makes a good point point about Alfie and the playoffs but I believe that his mediocre playoff record is balanced off by a stellar record in international competition.

As a Sens fan I'm pretty close to being on the fence but if being the face of a franchise and being an exemplary human being count for anything I hope he makes it in.

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11-22-2012, 08:31 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
It's a bad way to evaluate players. It's the same thing with all of that Best Player of the Decade stuff that everyone is so fascinated with. You can't expect to get a fair list when you compare 10 or 20 years of someone's career to the beginning 5 or 10 or the latter 5 or 10 of another's career.
It's actually a very good way to evaluate any players career.

The great players make top 10 in scoring over their careers because they outlast their peers, that part of what makes them so good.

Every player has the value of how they did against everyone else in their careers. Usually the longer the career and better the player the better they do in this evaluation.

We already have year to year top 10 ect which of course are part of the equation in evaluating any players career but to be consistently good, ie at a high level for a long period of time has it's value as well.

Just like peak and prime and playoffs and other evaluation each one on their own doesn't always mean very much but it's the totality of any players resume that makes them great (or not so with the lack of a great total resume)

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11-22-2012, 09:32 PM
  #116
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The knock I have on him is that while his playoff career looks average (at best) on the surface the truth is his production got worse as the playoffs wore on. Look it up. Plus if there is one team that probably should have won a Cup in the 2000s it's Ottawa. It is very arguable that a strong playoff performance by Alfredsson gives them the Cup at least once. Other than 2007, Alfredsson was not a good playoff performer and I think we tend to gloss over this.
Alfredsson scored 0.35 gpg, 0.42 apg and 0.77 ppg in 66 first-round playoff games. He scored 0.53 gpg, 0.33 apg and 0.87 ppg in 45 playoff games outside of the first round - a 12% improvement.

He was brutal in the third round (0.58 ppg) and outstanding in the Stanley Cup finals (1.00 ppg) though in both cases we're looking at absurdly small sample sizes (twleve and five games respectively). Still, on an overall basis, he played better past the first round.

I agree that Alfredsson wasn't a great playoff performer, but he wasn't terrible - he was a bit worse than one would have expected for a player of his calibre.

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11-22-2012, 09:48 PM
  #117
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IIHF he's a no-brainer. NHL he still remains kind of a borderline guy for me. If ever the "standards" of entry should "fail" to keep him out of the Hall, it'd be one of the better "mistakes".

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11-22-2012, 11:41 PM
  #118
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I tend to view Alfredsson as a no-brainer for the Hall of Fame - he has peak, career, playoffs, international, all-around play and leadership all in his favor, albeit during a lower scoring era. Give me Alfredsson any day over numerous compilers from the 80s and 90s making the Hall on largely numbers alone.

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11-23-2012, 12:11 AM
  #119
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Argggh! The two Anaheim finals I was GLAD to miss!! Hate that franchise.

I guess Alfie is like Kariya in that regard, on the losing end of a good cup run, as a team leader.
Actually, in that sense, I think Alfie deserves some props. He was a significant part of Ottawa's Cup run. Paul Kariya? Not so much. Everyone remembers "the goal" but overall, as an Anaheim fan, he had a very underwhelming playoff performance.

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11-23-2012, 12:19 AM
  #120
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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
The knock I have on him is that while his playoff career looks average (at best) on the surface the truth is his production got worse as the playoffs wore on. Look it up. Other than 2007, Alfredsson was not a good playoff performer and I think we tend to gloss over this.
From 1997-2002, in Ottawa's first 6 post season appearances... Alfredsson scored 22 goals in 44 games (44-22-15-37). He personally scored 27% of the team's playoff goals and was involved in 46% of the offense (Ottawa scored 81 goals in those 44 games).

Post-lockout; Alfie has posted a 42-20-22-42 line in the playoffs.

Your argument mostly boils down 02-03 and to a lesser extent; 03-04.

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Plus if there is one team that probably should have won a Cup in the 2000s it's Ottawa. It is very arguable that a strong playoff performance by Alfredsson gives them the Cup at least once.
Ottawa has lost to a lower seed 4 times (and beaten a higher seed 4 times).

1999-2002 = very young and inexperienced.
2003 & 2007 = no real complaints
2004, 2006 & 2008 = Atrocious goaltending performances.

Ottawa was a young, emerging team from 1999-2002. They choked very badly in 1999 & 2001 against much lower seeded teams. Not good, but not surprising for a very young team.

These were the ages of key players leading into the 2002 season:
Havlat 20 - Bonk 25 - Hossa 22
McEachern 32 - White 26 - Alfie 28
Arvedsson 29 - Fisher 21 - Neil 22

Redden 24 - Salo 26
Phillips 23 - Chara 24
Rachunek 22

Once many of the kids grew up and gained experience, they watched helplessly as Lalime, Emery and Gerber each frittered away a season a piece within a 4 season span.

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Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider View Post
Alfredsson scored 0.35 gpg, 0.42 apg and 0.77 ppg in 66 first-round playoff games. He scored 0.53 gpg, 0.33 apg and 0.87 ppg in 45 playoff games outside of the first round - a 12% improvement.

He was brutal in the third round (0.58 ppg) and outstanding in the Stanley Cup finals (1.00 ppg) though in both cases we're looking at absurdly small sample sizes (twleve and five games respectively). Still, on an overall basis, he played better past the first round.

I agree that Alfredsson wasn't a great playoff performer, but he wasn't terrible - he was a bit worse than one would have expected for a player of his calibre.
That's probably because there were 1st rounds that he never should have played in (2008 & some in the late 1990's/early 2000's).
2008 - needed knee surgery.
1998-01 - missed 90 regular season games, but played every playoff game.

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11-23-2012, 12:29 AM
  #121
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1,000 points, over .9 PPG, one of the most respected players and leaders of his generation, I don't see why not.

Plus, he currently has 666 assists, which is so metal

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11-23-2012, 02:48 PM
  #122
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I had a couple responses over this so I'll just do a new thread here to answer them.

2001 - 1 point in a sweep against a lower seed team
2002 - did his part, but no points in Game 7 vs. Toronto
2003 - 8 points in 18 games. Had 1 assist in the 7 game series against New Jersey in the semis. Shut out in Game 7 again
2004 - 3 points in 7 games vs. Toronto at a time when he was as good as he was going to be. Shut out in Game 5, 6, 7
2006 - Alright and all, but was better than any Sabre and wasn't a difference maker on an Ottawa team many felt should have won
2007 - The first time we saw a possessed Alfredsson in the postseason. Let's not forget just how unusual that was.

Post 2007 it is all first round knockouts and pre-2001 it was all first round knockouts as well other than 1998. And let's not sugar coat it, the Sens had some very good teams many a season no one would be surprised if they won it.

In total, 5 Game 7s and one point to his name. That doesn't exactly scream "clutch" to me. Throw in the fact that he was a late bloomer who never really had a season where you'd consider him close to the elite until he was 30. There are some nice points about him and there are some knocks on him too. Very borderline.

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11-23-2012, 07:09 PM
  #123
GuineaPig
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I think this bears posting:

0.963
0.942
0.976
0.954

Those were the save percentages of the opposing netminders in Ottawa's four first-round exits from 1999 to 2004 (Hasek, Cujo x2, Belfour). While those Senators teams definitely disappointed, they also had some horrifically bad luck when it came to the goalies they ended up facing.

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11-23-2012, 07:20 PM
  #124
TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GuineaPig View Post
I think this bears posting:

0.963
0.942
0.976
0.954

Those were the save percentages of the opposing netminders in Ottawa's four first-round exits from 1999 to 2004 (Hasek, Cujo x2, Belfour). While those Senators teams definitely disappointed, they also had some horrifically bad luck when it came to the goalies they ended up facing.
You call it bad luck. But Ottawa had a rep as a soft, skilled team at the time. And it seems likely that teams that could be forced into a perimeter game in the playoffs would have a low shooting percentage

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Old
11-23-2012, 08:45 PM
  #125
monster_bertuzzi
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I would put him with Kariya, Mogilny, and Fleury as hall of fame talents who deserve to be in, but may have to wait a while (and may never get in in our lifetime).

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