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11-22-2012, 01:27 PM
  #76
Taelin
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Originally Posted by Vancouver_2010 View Post
"If you're going to come here and tell Canuck fans what Luongo is worth and that they're wrong, word of advice; Don't." I thought this is clear, not sure why some leaf fan can still be here trying to correct us what Luongo is worth.

Anyways, what if we trade Schneider instead?
I would love to use Schneider to move up in the draft and get one of the top 3...

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11-22-2012, 01:41 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Vancouver_2010 View Post
"If you're going to come here and tell Canuck fans what Luongo is worth and that they're wrong, word of advice; Don't." I thought this is clear, not sure why some leaf fan can still be here trying to correct us what Luongo is worth.

Anyways, what if we trade Schneider instead?
I have never tried to tell you what Luongo is worth. I have only stated (IMO) what TO can/can't afford to pay.

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11-22-2012, 01:43 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Taelin View Post
Then how do you explain how Nonis and Gillis have managed to find goaltenders in the draft that aren't a sieve, in a shorter amount of time than Burke had?
You guys have a good one in Schnieder. Until the others show NHL promise, you can't count them.

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11-22-2012, 01:43 PM
  #79
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Interesting how you ask for a sample of 80+ games when Lupul only played 66 this year. And obviouslu his PPG in his first few seasons in the league will be less than they would be in his prime-exactly the reason why I don't expect Kadri to make a significant impact alone that would make it worthwhile to pass up on Lupul for the next few years when we have the best shot at the cup.


Ok, take 16 games from his 1st TO season and tack them on to make 82. His PPG pro-rated is 10 points in 16 additional games. Add that to his break out last year and you get 77 points in 82 games. Find me that rate while he played RW. Until you do, this argument is unlikely to progress.




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Okay, so we can agree to disagree on whether or not we need to add a top-6 forward. Fine, I guess it's case closed.

Oh we do disagree, that much is known. But this was about the abstract concepts of value and need - Glad you know see the light.



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I don't understand. I'm not saying Lupul would help us more than the rest of the Leafs roster combined. I think it's fairly likely that Kulemin and Kadri combined generate more offense than Lupul alone. That is all.


You know what's hilarious about this? I initially said Kadri + the increased value of the remaining piece(s) is greater than targeting Lupul alone. Then, it was misconstrued by you to say that I favoured Kadri alone over Lupul. When in actual terms, what you just posted here is the exact argument I initially made. Kadri + the increased value of a secondary piece (Kulemin) is greater than Lupul alone. The only way you get Kulemin included in addition to Kadri is that Kadri is "devalued" as an unproven prospect.



Meaning, if all remaining parts are equal, you actually agree with my initial statement. You've come 180 degrees in this and you don't even know it.




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Well, if we look at past cup winners, their playoff scoring was way higher than ours? Why is that?


Me thinks coaching has more to do with this than some would like to admit. Of course, better players help too. But those players represent a _want_ to improve, not a _need_. Bolster an already strong position, not have to remedy a complete weakness = big difference.



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No matter what you say Lupul produced at his best clip in TO given proper linemates and ice time. It literally makes no sense why you would think your reason is more likely.


To the bold line, just add "and because he played on the LW". Because that's what happened. And didn't Lupul play with Richards and Carter in PHI? I seem to recall that. Oh, and Hemsky in EDM.




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It's not just about points either. If we can get a playmaker to help create chemistry so we're not running a helicopter line that results in Kesler wearing himself down, it would help benefit the entire team as a whole. And again, given top-6 minutes and playing with the Sedins on the PP will boost his point totals, if that's what you care about.


Who is Lupul going to unseat on the first PP unit? I'm not disagreeing with your hypothesis, I just don't feel Lupul is a marked increase on what we have.



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I expect him to show flashes of offensive instinct but to not be consistent enough in his rookie year to merit getting top-6 minutes. So maybe around 40 points, while being a bit of a detriment on the ice while he's not producing. Eventually in a couple of years he would be well adjusted enough to put up 60-70 points, but I see that as being at least 3 years down the road. This is only my opinion though, but if you think it's more likely Lupul get's a concussion in his first game and Kadri wins the Calder, go ahead.




Then why haven't you showed me Kadri is able to play RW as well as he can LW? Since a highlights video doesn't count, show me a large sample size where Kadri played RW and did well there. And even that doesn't neccessarily mean he's capable of doing it at the NHL level.


I'm saying it's unreasonable to ask me to prove Lupul can produce at RW given top-6 minutes, when you've never proven Kadri can produce as well as he has on RW either.


I don't need to show sample in a Lupul RW vs. Lupul LW argument: the stats are there to see. 77 in 82. But you have yet to show a sample in direct counter.



On Kadri: The bold line is the reason I don't show a sample for Kadri at RW. It's meaningless without first determining what wing he will likely play on in the NHL. From what he is listed at from line-ups, switching from LW to C to RW, he has produced at a PPG clip in the AHL. Meaning his production doesn't fall off moving around. To contrast, we have the NHL sample for Lupul.



Just as an aside: In his brief time in the NHL, Kadri has shown to be the second best possession player (behind Grabovski (better than Lupul/Kessel)) over that span. Take that for what it's worth.








Quote:
Saying you don't want Lupul because he's injury prone is like me saying Kadri's a bust because he hasn't even made one of the worst teams in the league. Both are unfair statements to make, as there are a lot more factors at play.


What are the other factors to a player being injured? And injured consistently enough over his entire career so as to not complete a single full season - ever.




Quote:
Answer 1: Answered previously, the combined offense of Kadri and Kulemin, coupled with Kulemin's two-way game and physicality, tilt it slightly in their favour, but not by much. Just because I say Lupul > Kadri doesn't mean I'd prefer Lupul to Kadri + anyone else.


LOL, do you even realize that you are agreeing with my original premise? This is beautiful.


One question though: Wouldn't the cup contending team, or any team for that matter, favour the legit 1st line talent over a boom/bust prospect and a 2nd/3rd line tweener? Seems like the logical thing to do wouldn't it?



Quote:
Answer 2: In Philly(Aged 24/25), Lupul was a legit top-6 player, on pace for almost 60 points/82 games in his two seasons there. He was then stuck on the third line in Anaheim, and had tension with Carlyle, so got traded.


Why was he traded from PHI?


So Lupul went from legit 1st line talent to cap dump in value because he had tension with Carlyle? Please explain.


How come you can't show me PPG pace on EDM or PHI for Lupul? I'm pretty sure he got 1st line ice in both places because he played with Richards/Briere and Hemsky.






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Why on earth should we only compare Kesler-Kessel and not Booth-Bozak? Lupul will be generating chances for both Kesler and Booth. And again, you don't think given PP time with the Sedins is as good as playing with Kessel?

I hadn't realized that Kessel was this good, somehow magicaly transforming a tweener winger(same definition I'd give Higgins) into a PPG player, while his centre remains a 40s point player.


Isn't Booth a 40's point player too? Production wise, isn't that what Bozak put up last year (47)?



I'm unsure what point you are making here.

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Old
11-22-2012, 01:44 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
You guys have a good one in Schnieder. Until the others show NHL promise, you can't count them.
Nonis - Schneider

Gillis - Lack (stats in the AHL surpass Schneider's at the same age)

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11-22-2012, 01:46 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
Well, one would assume with Gillis having the knowledge of TO's need that before accepting anything (assuming he could get better from Burke), he would contact Burke.


He'll contact Burke but do you actually think he will tell him what he's getting from all other teams? No, obviously not. So how does Burke know what he has to counter again?

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11-22-2012, 01:49 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
I have never tried to tell you what Luongo is worth. I have only stated (IMO) what TO can/can't afford to pay.


Ummm that's exactly what you have done: Gillis is "drunk" for demanding Gardiner + 1st + Frattin + Bozak. How is that not trying to tell us what Luongo is worth?


If you had only come here to say what TO can/can't afford to pay, you would not infer anything about Gillis, or his perception.

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11-22-2012, 01:51 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
He'll contact Burke but do you actually think he will tell him what he's getting from all other teams? No, obviously not. So how does Burke know what he has to counter again?
Fair enough...so i guess FLA wins.

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11-22-2012, 01:52 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Ummm that's exactly what you have done: Gillis is "drunk" for demanding Gardiner + 1st + Frattin + Bozak. How is that not trying to tell us what Luongo is worth?


If you had only come here to say what TO can/can't afford to pay, you would not infer anything about Gillis, or his perception.
My apologies. Tell me, do you honestly think this is "fair" value?

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11-22-2012, 01:53 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
My apologies. Tell me, do you honestly think this is "fair" value?
Gardiner + 1st + Frattin + Bozak for Luongo and Raymond

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11-22-2012, 01:54 PM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vancouver_2010 View Post
Gardiner + 1st + Frattin + Bozak for Luongo and Raymond
I would do this.

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Old
11-22-2012, 01:57 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Vancouver_2010 View Post
Gardiner + 1st + Frattin + Bozak for Luongo and Raymond
As i've said before, Vancouver is my team in the West, so i am sincere when i say i hope you can get a deal like that. I also hope it isn't from Toronto. Not talking about worth, just that IMO, that is to much from a TO standpoint.

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11-22-2012, 01:58 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by Vancouver_2010 View Post
Gardiner + 1st + Frattin + Bozak for Luongo and Raymond
Take out Bozak and Raymond and that's pretty much the base of any deal I've been looking for since April.

Player + Prospect + 1st

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Old
11-22-2012, 02:02 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Take out Bozak and Raymond and that's pretty much the base of any deal I've been looking for since April.

Player + Prospect + 1st
Just like the other had suggest about the content of this thread
Wash, rinse, repeat

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11-22-2012, 02:10 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
Fair enough...so i guess FLA wins.


Because Burke isn't going to have the understanding to offer a "fair" deal on his own? Without knowing what others are offering? C'mon LL. He should have the intelligence to know what to put forth regardless, but as we know, when it comes to goaltending, he doesn't. This is what we are seeing transpire.



GMs offer value based on what they interpret value to be. They don't counter based on known offers made by other teams, because most times it is unknown and there is the possibility of deliberate misinformation as well.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
My apologies. Tell me, do you honestly think this is "fair" value?


In a vacuum, yes, I do. When I compare it to what Nash got, it's still lower in value - and there are a good chunk of VAN fans that see Luongo as having a much better career than Nash on his own merit. The key difference being age.



Do I think Gillis will get _this_ TO based fair value? No. Mostly because TO seems like the perfect fit and they won't include Gardiner.

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11-22-2012, 02:10 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Take out Bozak and Raymond and that's pretty much the base of any deal I've been looking for since April.

Player + Prospect + 1st
We're not getting Bozak, Gardiner and a First for Lou. No chance Burke does that.

Bozak/Kulemin + Finn/Kadri + First is the absolute most we could return

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11-22-2012, 02:14 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by ginner classic View Post
We're not getting Bozak, Gardiner and a First for Lou. No chance Burke does that.

Bozak/Kulemin + Finn/Kadri + First is the absolute most we could return
In that case I wouldn't do the deal. Bozak is garbage, and Kulemin doesn't address a need.

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11-22-2012, 02:15 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by ginner classic View Post
We're not getting Bozak, Gardiner and a First for Lou. No chance Burke does that.

Bozak/Kulemin + Finn/Kadri + First is the absolute most we could return
if this is the case, then we are better off keeping two goalies.

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11-22-2012, 02:19 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
In that case I wouldn't do the deal. Bozak is garbage, and Kulemin doesn't address a need.

Hey Y2K, what do you project Kadri to become in the NHL? Just curious.

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11-22-2012, 02:19 PM
  #95
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Originally Posted by ginner classic View Post
We're not getting Bozak, Gardiner and a First for Lou. No chance Burke does that.

Bozak/Kulemin + Finn/Kadri + First is the absolute most we could return
I said take out Raymond and Bozak, thus ....Gardiner+Frattin+1st...

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11-22-2012, 02:21 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
I said take out Raymond and Bozak, thus ....Gardiner+Frattin+1st...


If you replace Gardiner with Kadri + Percy, do you do it? Kadri + Bozak? Kadri + Colborne?

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11-22-2012, 02:22 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Because Burke isn't going to have the understanding to offer a "fair" deal on his own? Without knowing what others are offering? C'mon LL. He should have the intelligence to know what to put forth regardless, but as we know, when it comes to goaltending, he doesn't. This is what we are seeing transpire.



GMs offer value based on what they interpret value to be. They don't counter based on known offers made by other teams, because most times it is unknown and there is the possibility of deliberate misinformation as well.








In a vacuum, yes, I do. When I compare it to what Nash got, it's still lower in value - and there are a good chunk of VAN fans that see Luongo as having a much better career than Nash on his own merit. The key difference being age.



Do I think Gillis will get fair value? No. Mostly because TO seems like the perfect fit and they won't include Gardiner.
I still don't see how you can compare these 2. With Nash, you had multiple teams interested and most of them upper tier. Upper tier teams can offer more as they have expendable pieces of value. If Boston or the Rangers needed a goalie you'd get a better return as they are much deeper with top tier talent. Also, a forward has a better market than a goaltender. What team (contract aside) couldn't fit in a top 6 forward? Now how many teams can fit in a starting goalie?

And, not speaking at all to value, this is why we cannot do the deal you propose:

Lupul/???/Kessel is now our 1st line...we do not have a replacement for 1C.

Phaneuf/Gunnar
Liles/???
Komi/???

If we deal Gardiner, were are the other 3 pieces (2 starter 1 injury replacement)? Franson is unsigned, Holzer/Blacker have no NHL experience and Reilly is 18 years old.

So, we fill our goalie hole and create 2 more big holes.Then you add in a 1st which with that defense is going to be pretty high.

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11-22-2012, 02:30 PM
  #98
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If you replace Gardiner with Kadri + Percy, do you do it? Kadri + Bozak? Kadri + Colborne?

There is no guarantee that Kadri can contribute right away, and Percy was just drafted in 2011 and will unlikely to crack our roster any time soon, so the answer is no, Gardiner cannot be replaced by any of those players you have mentioned. We are a team that wants the cup, if a team with Luongo cannot win the cup, how can we expect to win the cup by giving up Luongo and not offer any immediate help?

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11-22-2012, 02:31 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Hey Y2K, what do you project Kadri to become in the NHL? Just curious.
Hard to get a good read on him, but I don't think he will amount to much in the NHL if AV is his coach.

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11-22-2012, 02:33 PM
  #100
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
If you replace Gardiner with Kadri + Percy, do you do it? Kadri + Bozak? Kadri + Colborne?
I'm not sold on Kadri, but I prefer him to Colborne.

So you're suggestion is Kadri+Percy+Frattin+1st...its ok I guess, I don't like it that much though, Gardiner we've at least seen play in the NHL and have success.

I don't believe this improves theCanucks NOW. For me that needs to happen.

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