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Old
11-22-2012, 06:31 PM
  #26
Moore Money
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Originally Posted by Kreator View Post
Eberle is a one-season wonder with an unsustainable shooting %.

No and no from Blues and Caps.
agree

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Old
11-22-2012, 06:51 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
People love to focus on the negative.

Eberle was 15th in league scoring and had the 11th best ppg average of all players that played 50+ games last season while only averaging 17:35 a game. There were only two players that averaged less ice time in the top 50. Seguin had 67 points(29th in the league) in 81 games while averaging 16:56 and Purcell had 65 points(40th in the league) while averaging 16:07.

Most of the players ahead of Eberle in points were averaging 2-4 minutes a night more than him. Was his shooting% high? Yes, but you have got to have something going for you if you can sustain that for an entire season. Eberle has a deadly shot and with more ice time, I'm sure he'll continue to be a 30+ goal scorer in the league.
Excellent post, and I'd like to suggest something that furthers the point. Maybe Eberle's shooting percentage was so high because he only shoots in premium scoring areas. If he played like Ovechkin and just ripped it every time he crosses the blue line then absolutely people could say his shooting percentage is unsustainable. But he's not that player. The guy finds open spaces, but when they aren't there he rarely tries to force something. That is why his shooting percentage could very likely stay the same.

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Old
11-22-2012, 07:22 PM
  #28
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Eberle for Gomez.

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Old
11-22-2012, 07:31 PM
  #29
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as good as eberle is and he is good, the second should be going the other way. the blues could be given a third considering where the oilers draft from and both teams would be happy

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Old
11-22-2012, 08:19 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by shogun99 View Post
Considering that Eberle has had success at every level he's played he sure looks like a 1 season wonder to me....


At least the edited deal is less of a robbery.
1 season wonder, he has proven that he can play hockey at every level and is the number two points leader in the AHL while starting off slow. EDM does not trade any of the FAB 5. In two season EDM's defense will be fine.

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Old
11-22-2012, 08:36 PM
  #31
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Easy pass from the Blues.

No interest in Jeff Petry.

Center is a position the Blues would like to upgrade, not deal from. (The Blues view McDonald and Oshie as wingers, not centers currently playing out of position.)

Right wing is a position of NHL depth for the Blues currently, with T.J. Oshie, Chris Stewart, Vladamir Tarasenko, and Jamie Langenbrunner currently slotted to start next season there for the Blues.

The Blues are not interested in dealing their high quality PMD and big bodied centerman for an upgrade at a position that doesn't really need upgrading and a defenseman we have very little to no interest in. This trade would make the Blues a worse team. Pass.

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Old
11-22-2012, 08:49 PM
  #32
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Ebs is one of a kind, I would think that any offer involving him crossing any GM's desk would have them thinking long and hard.

Its too early to buy that Petry is the real thing but theres certainly every potential for him to be a top d man as things move forward. Lots of good players on the table from other teams too, though. Whatevs.

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Old
11-22-2012, 09:09 PM
  #33
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Edmonton is giving up a superstar and a damn good 2nd pairing d-man who could still round out into a serviceable 1st pairing d-man and they're not getting a star in return?

What's wrong with HFboards? Damn.

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11-22-2012, 09:16 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post
Edmonton is giving up a superstar and a damn good 2nd pairing d-man who could still round out into a serviceable 1st pairing d-man and they're not getting a star in return?

What's wrong with HFboards? Damn.
Eberle is a superstar, and Shattenkirk isn't a star? What's wrong with HFboards indeed?

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Old
11-22-2012, 09:17 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Roof Daddy View Post
Excellent post, and I'd like to suggest something that furthers the point. Maybe Eberle's shooting percentage was so high because he only shoots in premium scoring areas. If he played like Ovechkin and just ripped it every time he crosses the blue line then absolutely people could say his shooting percentage is unsustainable. But he's not that player. The guy finds open spaces, but when they aren't there he rarely tries to force something. That is why his shooting percentage could very likely stay the same.
I don't know if it will stay quite as high as it was last season since it was very high but his shot accuracy and shot choice is so good that I wouldn't be surprised if he always has one of the best shooting percentages in the league. Even in the AHL so far this season he's at 16.67%. He's always had a high shooting%.

2012-13(AHL): 16.67%
2011-12(NHL): 18.9%
2010-11(NHL): 11.4%
2009-10(AHL): 25%
2008-09(AHL): 30%

I don't know what his percentage was in the WHL but he had 50 goals in 57 games in 2009-10, so I think it's safe to assume it was very high.

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Old
11-22-2012, 09:43 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post
Edmonton is giving up a superstar and a damn good 2nd pairing d-man who could still round out into a serviceable 1st pairing d-man and they're not getting a star in return?

What's wrong with HFboards? Damn.
John Carlson is already a serviceable 1st pairing defensemen.

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11-22-2012, 09:43 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
I don't know if it will stay quite as high as it was last season since it was very high but his shot accuracy and shot choice is so good that I wouldn't be surprised if he always has one of the best shooting percentages in the league. Even in the AHL so far this season he's at 16.67%. He's always had a high shooting%.

2012-13(AHL): 16.67%
2011-12(NHL): 18.9%
2010-11(NHL): 11.4%
2009-10(AHL): 25%
2008-09(AHL): 30%

I don't know what his percentage was in the WHL but he had 50 goals in 57 games in 2009-10, so I think it's safe to assume it was very high.
2008-2010 Eberle played twenty games in the AHL. Those shooting percentages should be thrown out due to the small sample size.

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Old
11-22-2012, 10:20 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
John Carlson is already a serviceable 1st pairing defensemen.
That's referencing Petry not Carlson.

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Old
11-22-2012, 10:49 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Kreator View Post
Then he will start taking more shots... Why is that so hard for people to believe?
It's not like he took 600 shots last year.
He can still maintain a 30+ goal season.
Eberle took 2.30 shots per game in his rookie season. He took 2.31 shots per game last year. Why are we hypothesizing that he will start taking more shots?

Jonathan Willis does a lot better analysis than anyone on HFBoards will ever do; both his articles on the subject are worth a read:
How many goals will Jordan Eberle score next season?
Jordan Eberle Comparables, Part 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
People love to focus on the negative.

Eberle was 15th in league scoring and had the 11th best ppg average of all players that played 50+ games last season while only averaging 17:35 a game. There were only two players that averaged less ice time in the top 50. Seguin had 67 points(29th in the league) in 81 games while averaging 16:56 and Purcell had 65 points(40th in the league) while averaging 16:07.

Most of the players ahead of Eberle in points were averaging 2-4 minutes a night more than him. Was his shooting% high? Yes, but you have got to have something going for you if you can sustain that for an entire season. Eberle has a deadly shot and with more ice time, I'm sure he'll continue to be a 30+ goal scorer in the league.
I don't mean to be rude, but this is pretty much a load of bunk. We're not focusing on the negative, we're focusing on what is actually sustainable talent, and what is luck. This isn't an abstract concept - the entire thing is based off of years of evidence.

"15th in league scoring, 11th best ppg average"
-- This happened because of his shooting percentage. He produced a lot of goals and a lot of points because the puck went in the net a lot - an unsustainable amount of the time. When Eberle was on the ice at 5v5, the Oilers scored on 12.84% of their shots. Here's some recent history of players who have posted on-ice shooting percentages in that ballpark:

2010-2011:
Ryan Getzlaf - 11.97%. The next season it dropped to 7.42%.

2009-2010:
Daniel / Henrik Sedin - 14.39 and 13.62%. The next season it dropped to 10.96 and 10.59%.
Alex Ovechkin - 12.52%. Next season, 9.09%.

2008-2009:
Evgeni Malkin - 13.23%. Next season it dropped to 9.68%.

These are the best players in the world, and their on-ice shooting percentages are just as volatile, unpredictable, and random as anyone else's in the league. These numbers regress hard, for every player. I'm not saying they'll regress to the same number for everyone - talented offensive players will consistently have higher on-ice shooting percentages than 3rd/4th line plugs - but what goes up must come down.

Remember the year Horcoff had 50 points in 53 games and got a huge contract extension? His on-ice shooting percentage that year was 11.36%. It hasn't been over 9.4% since, and it's been under 7% twice. How is that contract extension working out? A perfect example of why basing decisions on point totals - which are heavily influenced by shooting percentages - is an awful idea.

"Was his shooting% high? Yes, but you have got to have something going for you if you can sustain that for an entire season."

One season is not enough to say what is sustainable. It just isn't. Look at Curtis Glencross:

2006 to 2011 (his entire career before last season): 68 goals on 530 shots, 12.8%
2011 to 2012 (just last season, 67 games): 26 goals on 110 shots, 23.6%

Eberle shot 18.9% last year. Here are shooters from 2008 to 2010 who managed to hit 18%, and what they did the season after:

Sergei Kostitsyn: 24.7%. Dropped to 17.5% (-7.2%)
Sidney Crosby: 19.9%. Dropped to 10.7% (-9.2%)
Lauri Korpikoski: 18.4%. Dropped to 11.6% (-6.8%)
Alex Tanguay*: 18.3%. Dropped to 15.5% (-2.8%)
Andrew Brunette: 19.4%. Dropped to 15.4% (-4.0%)
Mike Knuble: 19.2%. Dropped to 11.8% (-7.4%)
Tomas Holmstrom: 19.1%. Dropped to 14.4% (-4.7%)
Tomas Fleischmann: 19.0%. Dropped to 12.2% (-6.8%)
Nik Antropov: 19.0%. Dropped to 15.2% (-3.8%)
Steve Downie: 19.0%. Dropped to 12.0% (-7.0%)
Troy Brouwer: 19.0%. Dropped to 13.9% (-5.1%)
Jussi Jokinen: 18.8%. Dropped to 14.0% (-4.8%)

Every single player had a significant drop. That's what people mean when they say "it's not sustainable" - Eberle isn't some magical wizard who can cause goaltenders to blink at the wrong moment. He's a hockey player who had a high shooting percentage in his 2nd year. Sometimes players have a crazy shooting percentage in their first year, and they get labelled as a super rookie and the next star (see Petr Prucha: shot 23.1% in his first 68 games, over his next 278 games he shot 11.1%).

Sometimes it happens in their 2nd or 3rd year, and people think "oh, he's really broken out, he understands the game now, he's going to be elite forever".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
I don't know if it will stay quite as high as it was last season since it was very high but his shot accuracy and shot choice is so good that I wouldn't be surprised if he always has one of the best shooting percentages in the league. Even in the AHL so far this season he's at 16.67%. He's always had a high shooting%.

2012-13(AHL): 16.67%
2011-12(NHL): 18.9%
2010-11(NHL): 11.4%
2009-10(AHL): 25%
2008-09(AHL): 30%

I don't know what his percentage was in the WHL but he had 50 goals in 57 games in 2009-10, so I think it's safe to assume it was very high.
Eberle could very possibly have a well above average shooting percentage. I say possibly, because we don't know, but I'd go so far as to say there's a very good chance that he's an excellent shooter. However, he would have to be the best shooter the NHL has seen in 30 years to continue to score goals at the same pace..

Is it possible? Sure. I'm not going to bet on it. In fact, I'll bet heavily against it..

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Old
11-22-2012, 11:43 PM
  #40
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I hope not. He's not even the best defenseman on his own team (see: Alzner, Karl).
karl alzner is a one way defensive defenseman. he's a very good shutdown defenseman and he and carlson are a quality shutdown defense pair. carlson was mentioned several times as a norris candidate for the coming season(s). ive never heard that applied to alzner. not once.

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Old
11-22-2012, 11:59 PM
  #41
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In pure value the Blues would most likely have to add a little. But from a practical perspective that is not a trade the Blues could ever make it would make them a much worse team.

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Old
11-23-2012, 12:00 AM
  #42
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Originally Posted by oilersfan11 View Post
To Oilers
John Carlson
Jeff Schultz
2013 2nd round pick


To Caps
Jordan Eberle
Jeff Petry


To Oilers
Kevin Shattenkirk
Patrik Berglund



To Blues
Jordan Eberle
Jeff Petry
Smid-Petry pair faced other teams best and had the 7th best d pair numbers. petry was on a 50PT season pace with Smid.

So you want to trade a guy who shows 50pt as season in the 7th best d pair numbers.
Plus Eberle?

Once Again! do your work before you throw out.......

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Old
11-23-2012, 12:07 AM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
I don't know if it will stay quite as high as it was last season since it was very high but his shot accuracy and shot choice is so good that I wouldn't be surprised if he always has one of the best shooting percentages in the league. Even in the AHL so far this season he's at 16.67%. He's always had a high shooting%.

2012-13(AHL): 16.67%
2011-12(NHL): 18.9%
2010-11(NHL): 11.4%
2009-10(AHL): 25%
2008-09(AHL): 30%

I don't know what his percentage was in the WHL but he had 50 goals in 57 games in 2009-10, so I think it's safe to assume it was very high.
If you look at a shot chart. Closer to the net. Better %. Try to find a an Eberle shot from the point, side boards, outside the circle. when you are taking 16 - 20% shots you get a equivalent shooting %. See defence man and there 3-6%.

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Old
11-23-2012, 12:09 AM
  #44
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Lol I have no idea why any Blues fan is turning this down. Sure Shatty is a very good player. I love him. Berglund has the tools to be a great player, hasn't exactly put everything together yet. I would take that trade in a heart beat. I know it leaves a hole at center, and is a slight downgrade at right D, but I think Eberle more than makes up for that. Move Steen to 2C, Oshie/Sobotka to 3C and the team is just fine.

Perron-Backes-Eberle
Mac-Steen-Oshie
D'Ags-Sobotka-Stewart
Reaves-Nichol-Langenbrunner

Cole-Petro
Jackman-Petry
Russell-Polak.

I love Shatty and Berglund as much as the next guy, but let's not pretend they're untouchable.

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Old
11-23-2012, 12:17 AM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
Smid-Petry pair faced other teams best and had the 7th best d pair numbers. petry was on a 50PT season pace with Smid.

So you want to trade a guy who shows 50pt as season in the 7th best d pair numbers.
Plus Eberle?

Once Again! do your work before you throw out.......
I agree with what you're saying as a whole, that the Oilers give up too much to the Blues, but to say Petry show 50pt a season is misleading to some degree. I believe your numbers, but the sample size must be extraordinarily small seeing as the guy has only 30 points in his season and a quarter career.

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Old
11-23-2012, 01:18 AM
  #46
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I'd do the Washington deal pretty easily. Maybe add a bit even. The downgrade from Carlson to Petry (or Carlson to Orlov/Orlov to Petry) is far smaller than the difference between Eberle and nothing. Washington is a better team now and in the future unless Carlson becomes Pronger which he won't not matter how much we love him.

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Old
11-23-2012, 02:25 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by eklunds source View Post
Eberle took 2.30 shots per game in his rookie season. He took 2.31 shots per game last year. Why are we hypothesizing that he will start taking more shots?

Jonathan Willis does a lot better analysis than anyone on HFBoards will ever do; both his articles on the subject are worth a read:
How many goals will Jordan Eberle score next season?
Jordan Eberle Comparables, Part 2


I don't mean to be rude, but this is pretty much a load of bunk. We're not focusing on the negative, we're focusing on what is actually sustainable talent, and what is luck. This isn't an abstract concept - the entire thing is based off of years of evidence.

"15th in league scoring, 11th best ppg average"
-- This happened because of his shooting percentage. He produced a lot of goals and a lot of points because the puck went in the net a lot - an unsustainable amount of the time. When Eberle was on the ice at 5v5, the Oilers scored on 12.84% of their shots. Here's some recent history of players who have posted on-ice shooting percentages in that ballpark:

2010-2011:
Ryan Getzlaf - 11.97%. The next season it dropped to 7.42%.

2009-2010:
Daniel / Henrik Sedin - 14.39 and 13.62%. The next season it dropped to 10.96 and 10.59%.
Alex Ovechkin - 12.52%. Next season, 9.09%.

2008-2009:
Evgeni Malkin - 13.23%. Next season it dropped to 9.68%.

These are the best players in the world, and their on-ice shooting percentages are just as volatile, unpredictable, and random as anyone else's in the league. These numbers regress hard, for every player. I'm not saying they'll regress to the same number for everyone - talented offensive players will consistently have higher on-ice shooting percentages than 3rd/4th line plugs - but what goes up must come down.

Remember the year Horcoff had 50 points in 53 games and got a huge contract extension? His on-ice shooting percentage that year was 11.36%. It hasn't been over 9.4% since, and it's been under 7% twice. How is that contract extension working out? A perfect example of why basing decisions on point totals - which are heavily influenced by shooting percentages - is an awful idea.

"Was his shooting% high? Yes, but you have got to have something going for you if you can sustain that for an entire season."

One season is not enough to say what is sustainable. It just isn't. Look at Curtis Glencross:

2006 to 2011 (his entire career before last season): 68 goals on 530 shots, 12.8%
2011 to 2012 (just last season, 67 games): 26 goals on 110 shots, 23.6%

Eberle shot 18.9% last year. Here are shooters from 2008 to 2010 who managed to hit 18%, and what they did the season after:

Sergei Kostitsyn: 24.7%. Dropped to 17.5% (-7.2%)
Sidney Crosby: 19.9%. Dropped to 10.7% (-9.2%)
Lauri Korpikoski: 18.4%. Dropped to 11.6% (-6.8%)
Alex Tanguay*: 18.3%. Dropped to 15.5% (-2.8%)
Andrew Brunette: 19.4%. Dropped to 15.4% (-4.0%)
Mike Knuble: 19.2%. Dropped to 11.8% (-7.4%)
Tomas Holmstrom: 19.1%. Dropped to 14.4% (-4.7%)
Tomas Fleischmann: 19.0%. Dropped to 12.2% (-6.8%)
Nik Antropov: 19.0%. Dropped to 15.2% (-3.8%)
Steve Downie: 19.0%. Dropped to 12.0% (-7.0%)
Troy Brouwer: 19.0%. Dropped to 13.9% (-5.1%)
Jussi Jokinen: 18.8%. Dropped to 14.0% (-4.8%)

Every single player had a significant drop. That's what people mean when they say "it's not sustainable" - Eberle isn't some magical wizard who can cause goaltenders to blink at the wrong moment. He's a hockey player who had a high shooting percentage in his 2nd year. Sometimes players have a crazy shooting percentage in their first year, and they get labelled as a super rookie and the next star (see Petr Prucha: shot 23.1% in his first 68 games, over his next 278 games he shot 11.1%).

Sometimes it happens in their 2nd or 3rd year, and people think "oh, he's really broken out, he understands the game now, he's going to be elite forever".


Eberle could very possibly have a well above average shooting percentage. I say possibly, because we don't know, but I'd go so far as to say there's a very good chance that he's an excellent shooter. However, he would have to be the best shooter the NHL has seen in 30 years to continue to score goals at the same pace..

Is it possible? Sure. I'm not going to bet on it. In fact, I'll bet heavily against it..
Not the same obviously but Stamkos has shot 17.2, 16.5, and 19.8 % in his last 3 seasons in a combined 872 shots. Now while Eberle could only dream of a clapper like Stamkos', Eberle's hands and patience with the puck down low are elite. I'd be surprised to see Jordan drop below 15% whenever the NHL starts up again.

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11-23-2012, 02:45 AM
  #48
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Lol I have no idea why any Blues fan is turning this down. Sure Shatty is a very good player. I love him. Berglund has the tools to be a great player, hasn't exactly put everything together yet. I would take that trade in a heart beat. I know it leaves a hole at center, and is a slight downgrade at right D, but I think Eberle more than makes up for that. Move Steen to 2C, Oshie/Sobotka to 3C and the team is just fine.

Perron-Backes-Eberle
Mac-Steen-Oshie
D'Ags-Sobotka-Stewart
Reaves-Nichol-Langenbrunner

Cole-Petro
Jackman-Petry
Russell-Polak.

I love Shatty and Berglund as much as the next guy, but let's not pretend they're untouchable.
Tarasenko is coming.

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Old
11-23-2012, 03:08 AM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Not the same obviously but Stamkos has shot 17.2, 16.5, and 19.8 % in his last 3 seasons in a combined 872 shots. Now while Eberle could only dream of a clapper like Stamkos', Eberle's hands and patience with the puck down low are elite. I'd be surprised to see Jordan drop below 15% whenever the NHL starts up again.
Like he said, Ebs likely isn't just going to start magically taking more shots. A 15% would earn him approximately 27 goals and a helluva lot less Stamkos comparisons.

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Old
11-23-2012, 03:35 AM
  #50
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Originally Posted by 7even View Post
Like he said, Ebs likely isn't just going to start magically taking more shots. A 15% would earn him approximately 27 goals and a helluva lot less Stamkos comparisons.
Why not? That's the only reason I can see his shooting percentage going down

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