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Is Alfie a HOF'er?

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Old
11-23-2012, 09:38 PM
  #126
Ohashi_Jouzu
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GuineaPig View Post
I think this bears posting:

0.963
0.942
0.976
0.954

Those were the save percentages of the opposing netminders in Ottawa's four first-round exits from 1999 to 2004 (Hasek, Cujo x2, Belfour). While those Senators teams definitely disappointed, they also had some horrifically bad luck when it came to the goalies they ended up facing.
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
You call it bad luck. But Ottawa had a rep as a soft, skilled team at the time. And it seems likely that teams that could be forced into a perimeter game in the playoffs would have a low shooting percentage
I think you're both onto something. I mean, remember that first Ottawa-Buffalo game, where Ottawa outshot them 41-15 but lost 2-1 because of Hasek? Then, in the very next game, Ottawa goes to Rhodes instead of Tugnutt (and gets a good performance out of him), but Hasek stops 45 of 47 enroute to a 3-2 double overtime win to make the series 2-0. A demoralized Ottawa team goes to Buffalo looking to at least make a series of it, and Hasek posts a 31 save shutout to make it a 3-0 series... And seriously, it still took a 40 save effort from Hasek to close out the sweep with a 1 goal game 4 win. Perimeter shots or not, worse teams have turned similar chances into more goals in my viewing experience, so it's hard for me to claim that either of you is necessarily off base.

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11-23-2012, 09:43 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
You call it bad luck. But Ottawa had a rep as a soft, skilled team at the time. And it seems likely that teams that could be forced into a perimeter game in the playoffs would have a low shooting percentage
This is exactly what happened. They played on the perimeter and no one was willing to crash the net to make life difficult for the opposing goalies.

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11-23-2012, 10:41 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
I think you're both onto something. I mean, remember that first Ottawa-Buffalo game, where Ottawa outshot them 41-15 but lost 2-1 because of Hasek? Then, in the very next game, Ottawa goes to Rhodes instead of Tugnutt (and gets a good performance out of him), but Hasek stops 45 of 47 enroute to a 3-2 double overtime win to make the series 2-0. A demoralized Ottawa team goes to Buffalo looking to at least make a series of it, and Hasek posts a 31 save shutout to make it a 3-0 series... And seriously, it still took a 40 save effort from Hasek to close out the sweep with a 1 goal game 4 win. Perimeter shots or not, worse teams have turned similar chances into more goals in my viewing experience, so it's hard for me to claim that either of you is necessarily off base.
You beat me to it, the 1st thing I thought it that the 2 comments weren't mutually exclusive and indeed both could be true at the same time.

I think what TDMM eludes to however is at the crux of those that don't think that Alfie is a HHOF.

There is a really strong perception of him being good to really good but not ever great. Greatness is often measured about being able to score or dominate when the going gets tough.

I think this notion is overused and a bit cliche at times but it might also be in the minds of some of the HHOF voters.

My guess is that he gets in though as always the current 4 player per year rule and backlog, not to mention the inevitable induction of Angela Ruggiero doesn't help either.

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11-23-2012, 10:45 PM
  #129
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
I think you're both onto something. I mean, remember that first Ottawa-Buffalo game, where Ottawa outshot them 41-15 but lost 2-1 because of Hasek? Then, in the very next game, Ottawa goes to Rhodes instead of Tugnutt (and gets a good performance out of him), but Hasek stops 45 of 47 enroute to a 3-2 double overtime win to make the series 2-0. A demoralized Ottawa team goes to Buffalo looking to at least make a series of it, and Hasek posts a 31 save shutout to make it a 3-0 series... And seriously, it still took a 40 save effort from Hasek to close out the sweep with a 1 goal game 4 win. Perimeter shots or not, worse teams have turned similar chances into more goals in my viewing experience, so it's hard for me to claim that either of you is necessarily off base.
I agree 100%.

They faced hot goaltenders, but they made those goaltenders hot to some extent. The truth, in my mind, is almost perfectly in between both of their positions. Ottawa often seemed to be carrying the play against the Leafs. I often felt after a close game, that they were "lucky" to win. I think if you replay 2002 and 2004 a hundred times apiece, Ottawa takes them each 80 times.

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11-24-2012, 08:03 AM
  #130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GuineaPig View Post
I think this bears posting:

0.963
0.942
0.976
0.954

Those were the save percentages of the opposing netminders in Ottawa's four first-round exits from 1999 to 2004 (Hasek, Cujo x2, Belfour). While those Senators teams definitely disappointed, they also had some horrifically bad luck when it came to the goalies they ended up facing.
As a Leaf fan who was privy to all those Ottawa/Toronto battles I honestly don't think you can finger a "hot goalie" as someone who robbed them. In many series against the Leafs you can easily say Ottawa could have won it (2000, 2002, 2004). Lalime played bad in Game 7 in 2004 but the Senators didn't score either, remember. In 2002 they had a 6th game at home to close out the Leafs but didn't. Actually they may have put the series to bed in Game 2 of 2002 with a singular goal in that triple overtime game but they didn't. And yes I agree with other posters here, the Sens were often considered soft and not tough enough to win. Between Hossa, Alfredsson, Yashin (when he was there) and Chara they always seemed to have underacheivers in the postseason. We all know Yashin's horrific playoff performances but remember Hossa and Chara had sort of a bad reputation for a while too, but Alfredsson had a worse one than them.

Would 2003 count as a time when Brodeur shut the door or was it more of the same? 2006? I don't think Ryan Miller necessarily "stoned" them. Game 1 was a 7-6 OT game.

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11-24-2012, 09:52 AM
  #131
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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
As a Leaf fan who was privy to all those Ottawa/Toronto battles I honestly don't think you can finger a "hot goalie" as someone who robbed them. In many series against the Leafs you can easily say Ottawa could have won it (2000, 2002, 2004). Lalime played bad in Game 7 in 2004 but the Senators didn't score either, remember. In 2002 they had a 6th game at home to close out the Leafs but didn't. Actually they may have put the series to bed in Game 2 of 2002 with a singular goal in that triple overtime game but they didn't. And yes I agree with other posters here, the Sens were often considered soft and not tough enough to win. Between Hossa, Alfredsson, Yashin (when he was there) and Chara they always seemed to have underacheivers in the postseason. We all know Yashin's horrific playoff performances but remember Hossa and Chara had sort of a bad reputation for a while too, but Alfredsson had a worse one than them.

Would 2003 count as a time when Brodeur shut the door or was it more of the same? 2006? I don't think Ryan Miller necessarily "stoned" them. Game 1 was a 7-6 OT game.
At a certain point, it becomes hard to separate memory (which is notoriously unreliable anyways) and narrative of hindsight. I watched all those Leafs/Sens series too, and I think I remember Ottawa controlling the play for the most part. It always seemed to me that the '02 series was closest in terms of the play of the two teams (that year Ottawa was the 7th seed, I think, and certainly not favourites), but outside of that the Sens controlled the play. When players fail to score or a goalie gets hot, the team often gets labelled as "weak." Hard to separate the fact from the fiction. Presumably the underdog Martin-coached teams that played well in the post-season in '97 and '98 didn't get the same label. Patrick Lalime is a pretty great example of the misleading nature of hindsight: he was a pretty average regular season goalie, who actually stepped up his game in the post-season. Yet because of that one game 7 and those great Sens teams, he's somehow remembered as a good regular season goalie and a terrible playoff one.

As for the 2006 disappointment, I remember that one clearly. The Sens dominated the Sabres, but having a goalie post a 0.864 save percentage isn't going to get you very far. Shots for the series were 169-118 in favour of Ottawa.

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Old
11-24-2012, 10:04 AM
  #132
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I really don't think the Ottawa Senators losing a 7 game series to the 2003 New Jersey Devils should qualify as some kind of huge upset or choke. That Devils team is underrated and wasn't a huge step down from the more star-loaded Red Wings and Avalanche teams of the previous years. The 2008 Red Wings and 2007 Ducks are the only post-lockout Stanley Cup champions I'd put on the same level as that Devils team (which, obviously, was assembled in a different economic system).

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11-24-2012, 11:45 AM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Epsilon View Post
I really don't think the Ottawa Senators losing a 7 game series to the 2003 New Jersey Devils should qualify as some kind of huge upset or choke. That Devils team is underrated and wasn't a huge step down from the more star-loaded Red Wings and Avalanche teams of the previous years. The 2008 Red Wings and 2007 Ducks are the only post-lockout Stanley Cup champions I'd put on the same level as that Devils team (which, obviously, was assembled in a different economic system).
It definitely wasn't. But a guy we are talking about as a future HHOFer could have had more than one assist in that important 7 game series. We are basically talking about a Stanley Cup for Ottawa had they scored a goal or two (I think they beat Anaheim)

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Originally Posted by GuineaPig View Post
At a certain point, it becomes hard to separate memory (which is notoriously unreliable anyways) and narrative of hindsight. I watched all those Leafs/Sens series too, and I think I remember Ottawa controlling the play for the most part. It always seemed to me that the '02 series was closest in terms of the play of the two teams (that year Ottawa was the 7th seed, I think, and certainly not favourites), but outside of that the Sens controlled the play. When players fail to score or a goalie gets hot, the team often gets labelled as "weak." Hard to separate the fact from the fiction. Presumably the underdog Martin-coached teams that played well in the post-season in '97 and '98 didn't get the same label. Patrick Lalime is a pretty great example of the misleading nature of hindsight: he was a pretty average regular season goalie, who actually stepped up his game in the post-season. Yet because of that one game 7 and those great Sens teams, he's somehow remembered as a good regular season goalie and a terrible playoff one.

As for the 2006 disappointment, I remember that one clearly. The Sens dominated the Sabres, but having a goalie post a 0.864 save percentage isn't going to get you very far. Shots for the series were 169-118 in favour of Ottawa.
No, no, Lalime was alright, he just had that one bad game. But the thing with Alfredsson and Ottawa was that they didn't just have one choke job, they had a lot that you could look back and say "they COULD have won that series". Eventually it starts getting to how we look at the current San Jose sharks. It would have surprised no one had the Sharks made a Cup final or won a Cup, but they didn't and eventually all of those upsets have got to start falling on their best players which is why Thornton gets the flack he gets. Alfredsson has very little to offset those poor performances with, just 2007. I mean, Selanne made up for it eventually in the postseason, so did Pronger. Both of them have enough meat in their careers to make the HHOF while Alfredsson is one player where if anyone needed a Cup to cement their legacy..............

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11-24-2012, 01:57 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
No, no, Lalime was alright, he just had that one bad game.
It wasn't just the one bad game. He was weak all series and constantly put the team in a hole. He allowed the first goal every game, usually in in the early-mid 1st period. He gave up 2 goals in three games where he only faced 17, 17 and 16 shots. How is that an acceptable goaltending performance in the lowest scoring season in 60 years?

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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
But the thing with Alfredsson and Ottawa was that they didn't just have one choke job, they had a lot that you could look back and say "they COULD have won that series".
They lost to 4 lower seeds and beat 4 higher seeds in club history.
Two of the losses were to massive underdogs while many of major Sens players were 23yo or under. The other two were to teams close in the standings.

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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
Eventually it starts getting to how we look at the current San Jose sharks. It would have surprised no one had the Sharks made a Cup final or won a Cup, but they didn't and eventually all of those upsets have got to start falling on their best players which is why Thornton gets the flack he gets.
Look at what Washington did in the past 5-6 years and compare that to every choke that you think that you see from Ottawa.

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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
Alfredsson has very little to offset those poor performances with, just 2007.
Alfredsson: 13 postseasons
1.0+ PPG = 5
0.5+ GPG = 5
Total of either = 7

Sundin: 10 postseasons
1.0+ PPG = 4
0.5+ GPG = 4
Total of either = 5

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
I had a couple responses over this so I'll just do a new thread here to answer them.

2001 - 1 point in a sweep against a lower seed team
2002 - did his part, but no points in Game 7 vs. Toronto
2003 - 8 points in 18 games. Had 1 assist in the 7 game series against New Jersey in the semis. Shut out in Game 7 again
2004 - 3 points in 7 games vs. Toronto at a time when he was as good as he was going to be. Shut out in Game 5, 6, 7
2006 - Alright and all, but was better than any Sabre and wasn't a difference maker on an Ottawa team many felt should have won
2007 - The first time we saw a possessed Alfredsson in the postseason. Let's not forget just how unusual that was.
22 goals in his first 44 playoff games and a PPG for the past 42.

2001- young team choked, within the period where Alfie regularly had major injuries (yet played every playoff game anyways)
2002 - posted 7-4-3-7 against the Leafs.
2003 & 2004 - previous seasons involved young'uns contributing virtually nothing to Alfie's performances, all while pressure was mounting to succeed. Alfie's literal choke's; he tried to do everything himself and accomplished very little.
2006- Hasek got hurt and Emery posted an .864 SV% against Buffalo and allowed 3 OT goals on 4 OT shots.

2008- Ottawa had amongst the worst goaltending in the league after mid-Nov. (and for 3 full seasons afterwards).

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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
Post 2007 it is all first round knockouts and pre-2001 it was all first round knockouts as well other than 1998. And let's not sugar coat it, the Sens had some very good teams many a season no one would be surprised if they won it.
Teams have peaks and valleys.
Ottawa was bottom feeder emerging.
They brokeout and choked as a very young team.
The had a 5-6 span where they improved in the postseason and hit some nice peaks, but were also impacted by 3 awful goaltending performances and a lockout.
Then they declined.

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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
Throw in the fact that he was a late bloomer who never really had a season where you'd consider him close to the elite until he was 30. There are some nice points about him and there are some knocks on him too. Very borderline.
He missed games and that obscures some of his peak.

From 2000-2010, his NHL PPG ranks:
3rd, 4th, 9th, 14th, 15th, 15th, 16th, 23rd, 25th, 29th
Plus, getting Selke votes in at least 6 of those seasons + other accomplishments
... Top-10 forward performance from the decade?

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11-24-2012, 02:51 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
He missed games and that obscures some of his peak.

From 2000-2010, his NHL PPG ranks:
3rd, 4th, 9th, 14th, 15th, 15th, 16th, 23rd, 25th, 29th
Plus, getting Selke votes in at least 6 of those seasons + other accomplishments
... Top-10 forward performance from the decade?
Since when is using someone's PPG ranks a good way to evaluate players?

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Old
11-24-2012, 02:55 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
Alfredsson: 13 postseasons
1.0+ PPG = 5
0.5+ GPG = 5
Total of either = 7

Sundin: 10 postseasons
1.0+ PPG = 4
0.5+ GPG = 4
Total of either = 5
Focusing on goals and points is unfair to Sundin given that he earned 25% more assists per game than Alfredsson (0.48 vs 0.39).

You're correct that Alfredsson has more PPG playoffs (5 vs 4) but since Sundin has a higher ppg overall, it implies that Alfredsson has more poor playoffs. Sundin was below 0.6 ppg in the playoffs just once (in ten postseasons) compared to five times (in 13 postseasons) for Alfredsson.

In both cases there might be extraneous factors to consider but only highlighting Alfredsson's superior goal-scoring (and not Sundin's superior playmaking) and Alfredsson's "good" playoffs (when he's inconsistent and has a lot more poor playoffs) is unfair.

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11-24-2012, 02:55 PM
  #137
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Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
Alfredsson: 13 postseasons
1.0+ PPG = 5
0.5+ GPG = 5
Total of either = 7

Sundin: 10 postseasons
1.0+ PPG = 4
0.5+ GPG = 4
Total of either = 5
Well, here's the thing, Sundin isn't a legendary playoff performer either. He did tend to do well enough though later in a series. There are too many times when Alfredsson just wasn't there in a tight game or in Game 6 or 7. You can't say Sundin disappeared, you can just say he didn't carry the team on his back even once. But Sundin got into the HHOF despite this. He was above a borderline case. Too much consistency over his career and it's hard to pick a time you'd want Alfie over Sundin pre-lockout. Alfredsson on the other hand has his warts and is borderline for the HHOF. This is why he gets picked apart more. Sundin has other things to offset his warts.


Quote:
2001- young team choked, within the period where Alfie regularly had major injuries (yet played every playoff game anyways)
2002 - posted 7-4-3-7 against the Leafs.
2003 & 2004 - previous seasons involved young'uns contributing virtually nothing to Alfie's performances, all while pressure was mounting to succeed. Alfie's literal choke's; he tried to do everything himself and accomplished very little.
2006- Hasek got hurt and Emery posted an .864 SV% against Buffalo and allowed 3 OT goals on 4 OT shots.

2008- Ottawa had amongst the worst goaltending in the league after mid-Nov. (and for 3 full seasons afterwards).
See, that's the thing that bothers me a bit about Alfredsson. Yes the Sens underacheived, but so did their captain on several occasions. I mean, Alfredsson wasn't a rookie in 1999 or 2000 either. They had opportunities and we can run a bunch of excuses out there but the Sens look a lot like San Jose does now. I mean, to be fair in 2011 the reason the Canucks tied the game was because of a botched icing call. They won in overtime. Either way the Canucks still probably win the series but at the same time if you are continually making these excuses as to why a team loses the common denominator eventually points that they did one thing - lose. Not once Ottawa or Alfredsson can offset these disapointments. Just 2007 for Alfredsson.

Quote:
He missed games and that obscures some of his peak.

From 2000-2010, his NHL PPG ranks:
3rd, 4th, 9th, 14th, 15th, 15th, 16th, 23rd, 25th, 29th
Plus, getting Selke votes in at least 6 of those seasons + other accomplishments
... Top-10 forward performance from the decade?
That will help him, the only thing we have to look at is how many seasons was he considered a "star"? It is less than we care to remember.

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11-24-2012, 02:57 PM
  #138
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Since when is using someone's PPG ranks a good way to evaluate players?
Yeah I agree, it isn't the best way to judge a player. That being said Alfredsson's PPG finishes don't scream HHOFer either. Again, it does nothing but make him look borderline.

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11-24-2012, 02:59 PM
  #139
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Based on their NHL careers, I don't see an edge for Sundin over Alfredsson. Sundin was much better for Tre Kronor, though

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11-24-2012, 03:10 PM
  #140
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Sundin definitely has an edge to their NHL careers. It's not a tremendous gap, but it's discernable. He was more productive at an earlier age and had more quality seasons at a premium position. The fact that he's a centre and was an excellent face-off man more than off-sets any perceived defensive advantage on Alfredsson's part IMO.

148 goals, 119 assists, and 267 points is a pretty decent gap.

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11-24-2012, 03:16 PM
  #141
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Based on their NHL careers, I don't see an edge for Sundin over Alfredsson. Sundin was much better for Tre Kronor, though
No?

Sundin - 1346 GP 564g-785a-1349 points
Alfredsson - 1113 GP 416g-666a-1082 points

Big edge there.

Playoffs:
Sundin - 82 points in 91 games
Alfredsson - 90 points in 111 games

More or less even.

Give an edge to Alfredsson in the defensive department but Sundin beats him in consistency, was a 2nd team all-star twice at center (compared to Alfie just once on the right wing). Both have the "face of a franchise" tag. Sundin has more seasons as an elite player as well.

Sweden performances:
Sundin - 39 points in 30 games
Alfredsson - 29 points in 28 games

All for top level tournaments. There is a noticeable edge for Sundin career wise. Certainly better longevity. At their peak is debatable but Alfredsson loses because he didn't sustain his level of play for as long.

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11-24-2012, 03:53 PM
  #142
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I tend to place some emphasis on the Bill James format that is often used for determining the worthiness of baseball players for the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. One of the questions that's often put forward is, was the player ever considered the best in their position at any point?

I would argue that in Sundin's case, that would be a yes, despite its brevity. He could certainly be argued to have been the NHL's best centre in 2002 (I've always felt he should have been the First Team selection that year over Sakic). Led the position in goals and points while finishing second in the NHL in goals and fourth in points in total.

Alfredsson never had a season relative to his peers as good, so for peak performance I think Sundin has the edge. There is an argument to be made that Mats' 1997 season is the best of the bunch between the two countrymen (I think adjusted it's worth 107 points given it was at the hart of the dead puck era rather than the 94 he recorded), but relative to their peers I like Mats' 2002 season as an example of highest level of play.

With that said, and we are certainly splitting hairs here to some extent, I would have Alfredsson in my personal Hall of Fame. His status as the face of the Senators franchise for so many years, his consistency, and his decent international pedigree, are all points in his favour, as is his defensive reputation and leadership ability, at least in some circles on the latter point (I never considered him a great leader personally). His warts are a relatively late start to his career, some unfortunate post-season failures, and a lack of leading some very talented Ottawa rosters to the promised land.

In any case he is a justifiable Hall of Famer, and certainly a better candidate than players such as enshrined names like Joe Mullen, Joe Nieuwendyk, Dick Duff, and Clark Gillies., but he's probably a little bit towards the lower-end of the tier out of those currently in.

He'll retire a little bit shy of 500 goals, with around 1,100 points, an Olympic gold medal, and as one of the longest-serving captains in NHL history. For the bulk of that offensive production to have been accumulated throughout one of the lowest scoring eras in NHL history, and maintain a reputation as an effective two-way presence is certainly commendable. His post-season statistics are pedestrian, but he did have that excellent run in 2007 and deserves credit for elevating his game that season. Alfie probably won't be a first-ballot selection, but he will get in eventually I think. The committee likes to reward players such as him that demonstate such obvious loyalty to their sole franchise and stay in one spot throughout their careers.

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11-24-2012, 04:34 PM
  #143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Litework View Post
Since when is using someone's PPG ranks a good way to evaluate players?
There are lots of good ways to evaluate players; PPG is one of them.

Is a 70 point player in 82 games better than a 68 point player in 68 games?
How come Dave Andreychuk isn't in the HoF despite being what? ... 6th in games played.

I was just stating that Alfredsson's injuries skew people's perceptions of what he was contributing when he was playing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider View Post
Focusing on goals and points is unfair to Sundin given that he earned 25% more assists per game than Alfredsson (0.48 vs 0.39).

You're correct that Alfredsson has more PPG playoffs (5 vs 4) but since Sundin has a higher ppg overall, it implies that Alfredsson has more poor playoffs. Sundin was below 0.6 ppg in the playoffs just once (in ten postseasons) compared to five times (in 13 postseasons) for Alfredsson.

In both cases there might be extraneous factors to consider but only highlighting Alfredsson's superior goal-scoring (and not Sundin's superior playmaking) and Alfredsson's "good" playoffs (when he's inconsistent and has a lot more poor playoffs) is unfair.
Sundin missed what? ... 20 of his teams' last 40 playoff games?

Alfredsson miraculously played every single playoff game during a 3-4 year stretch in which he was decimated by injuries in the regular season. Then he plays a couple more playoff games in 2008 after he was diagnosed with a season ending knee surgery. You can't expect a player to play injured and produce at 100%.

Regardless, I'm satisfied that Alfredsson matched or exceeded Sundin's postseasons... as he did in the regular season.

Sundin was stayed healthier and played longer; Alfredsson had a higher peak.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
Well, here's the thing, Sundin isn't a legendary playoff performer either. He did tend to do well enough though later in a series. There are too many times when Alfredsson just wasn't there in a tight game or in Game 6 or 7. You can't say Sundin disappeared, you can just say he didn't carry the team on his back even once. But Sundin got into the HHOF despite this. He was above a borderline case. Too much consistency over his career and it's hard to pick a time you'd want Alfie over Sundin pre-lockout. Alfredsson on the other hand has his warts and is borderline for the HHOF. This is why he gets picked apart more. Sundin has other things to offset his warts.
Alfredsson outproduced Sundin (PPG) in 8 of the last 9 seasons that they played in the NHL together, including 4/5 pre-lockout seasons.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
See, that's the thing that bothers me a bit about Alfredsson. Yes the Sens underacheived, but so did their captain on several occasions. I mean, Alfredsson wasn't a rookie in 1999 or 2000 either.
1998-99
Alfredsson = 4-1-2-3

Ottawa's 1st line:
Yashin = 4-0-0-0
McEachern = 4-2-0-2
Dackell = 4-0-1-1

1999-2000
Alfredsson = 6-1-3-4

Ottawa's 1B line:
Hossa = 6-0-0-0
Bonk = 6-0-0-0
Arvedsson = 6-0-0-0

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
Not once Ottawa or Alfredsson can offset these disapointments. Just 2007 for Alfredsson.
He had plenty of excellent postseasons, you just seem to be pointin to the only one that was Conn Smythe worthy and grouping all the rest together as "crap".


Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
Yeah I agree, it isn't the best way to judge a player. That being said Alfredsson's PPG finishes don't scream HHOFer either. Again, it does nothing but make him look borderline.
You know that 1/3 to 1/4 of the top-15 or 20 players every year won't be regulars the way that guys like Alfredsson were.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
No?

Sundin - 1346 GP 564g-785a-1349 points
Alfredsson - 1113 GP 416g-666a-1082 points

Big edge there.
He stayed healthier and got to play 5 years in higher scoring seasons.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
Give an edge to Alfredsson in the defensive department but Sundin beats him in consistency, was a 2nd team all-star twice at center (compared to Alfie just once on the right wing).

2003-04
Alfredsson = 7th in scoring, 3rd RW scoring = Jack All
M. Sundin = 13th in scoring, 5th C scoring = 2nd team All Star

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
Sweden performances:
Sundin - 39 points in 30 games
Alfredsson - 29 points in 28 games.

All for top level tournaments. There is a noticeable edge for Sundin career wise. Certainly better longevity. At their peak is debatable but Alfredsson loses because he didn't sustain his level of play for as long.
Alfredsson played in the WHC's twice between the ages of 26-38yo.

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11-24-2012, 06:59 PM
  #144
jkrx
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
No?

Sundin - 1346 GP 564g-785a-1349 points
Alfredsson - 1113 GP 416g-666a-1082 points

Big edge there.

Playoffs:
Sundin - 82 points in 91 games
Alfredsson - 90 points in 111 games

More or less even.

Give an edge to Alfredsson in the defensive department but Sundin beats him in consistency, was a 2nd team all-star twice at center (compared to Alfie just once on the right wing). Both have the "face of a franchise" tag. Sundin has more seasons as an elite player as well.

Sweden performances:
Sundin - 39 points in 30 games
Alfredsson - 29 points in 28 games

All for top level tournaments. There is a noticeable edge for Sundin career wise. Certainly better longevity. At their peak is debatable but Alfredsson loses because he didn't sustain his level of play for as long.
Sundin also played in a higher scoring era internationally while Alfie came along when it was defensive.

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11-24-2012, 11:26 PM
  #145
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Litework View Post
Since when is using someone's PPG ranks a good way to evaluate players?
when you want to know how good they were on the ice and not pretend games played is part of that.

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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Based on their NHL careers, I don't see an edge for Sundin over Alfredsson. Sundin was much better for Tre Kronor, though
There are plenty of reasons to say Sundin's NHL career is better than Alfredsson's. His best 10 percentage seasons lead him 814-780, and his 12th best season was still 26th in points. That is more comparable to Alfredsson's 7th best season.

Also, 3 of Alfie's 5 best offensive seasons came with the Pizza Line. Sundin didn't have anything close to that kind of offensively conducive situation in his career. If we put him in a more Sundin-like situation in his career, I think those offensive edges get larger.

Of course, although Sundin was decent defensively, Alfie was better, and depending on what subjective edge one wants to assign to how much better he was, and how important that is, he could still be argued to have the better NHL career.

Quote:
Sundin missed what? ... 20 of his teams' last 40 playoff games?
Did he really???

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11-25-2012, 03:46 AM
  #146
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jkrx View Post
Sundin also played in a higher scoring era internationally while Alfie came along when it was defensive.
Sundin played in the 1991 Canada Cup. Other than that, up until 2006 they both played on the same top level Swedish teams. I don't think anyone, especially people in Sweden, thought anyone else but Sundin was the straw that stirred the drink on those Swedish teams.

Quote:
Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
Is a 70 point player in 82 games better than a 68 point player in 68 games?
How come Dave Andreychuk isn't in the HoF despite being what? ... 6th in games played.
Not sure why Dave Andreychuk gets brought up again, but Sundin was a model of consistency even in a lower scoring era. He was a point a game guy in the dead puck era every year on average, never dropping below 72 for almost two decades. That has to count a bit more than someone who didn't break out into the NHL until 24.

Quote:
Sundin was stayed healthier and played longer; Alfredsson had a higher peak.

Alfredsson outproduced Sundin (PPG) in 8 of the last 9 seasons that they played in the NHL together, including 4/5 pre-lockout seasons.
To make it a little broader let's look at their best seasons in the top 20 of points:

Sundin - 4, 7, 11, 12, 13, 15, 19, 20
Alfredsson - 5, 8, 9, 15, 18, 19

You have got to see a noticeable edge for Mats here. This is where his consistency and longevity outstrip Alfie. It is hard to make a case for Sundin being the worse player

Quote:
1998-99
Alfredsson = 4-1-2-3

Ottawa's 1st line:
Yashin = 4-0-0-0
McEachern = 4-2-0-2
Dackell = 4-0-1-1

1999-2000
Alfredsson = 6-1-3-4

Ottawa's 1B line:
Hossa = 6-0-0-0
Bonk = 6-0-0-0
Arvedsson = 6-0-0-0
Hmmm. See, showing that he did more than Yashin isn't necessarily something to brag about.

Quote:
He had plenty of excellent postseasons, you just seem to be pointin to the only one that was Conn Smythe worthy and grouping all the rest together as "crap".
He had one great postseason, 2007. There are many "crap" ones after that and other "mediocre ones". Where are these "plenty of excellent seasons?"

Quote:
Alfredsson played in the WHC's twice between the ages of 26-38yo.
Yeah, that matters little. Maybe less than little. Use top level tournaments only.

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11-25-2012, 04:44 AM
  #147
Theokritos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jkrx View Post
Sundin also played in a higher scoring era internationally while Alfie came along when it was defensive.
Sundin is still ahead when you only look at the tournaments both played in: 1996 World Cup, 1998 Olympics, 2002 Olympics, 2004 World Cup and 2006 Olympics. Sundin: 32 points in 24 games. Alfredsson: 26 points in 24 games.

And if we forget about absolute scoring numbers and compare the players relative to their peers, then Sundin's edge is overwhelming: he was an all-star in 1991, 1996 and 2002. That's among the most impressive international records ever.

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11-25-2012, 12:14 PM
  #148
TheDevilMadeMe
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All those stats show a very small offensive edge for Sundin, that I think is countered by Alfredsson's superior defense.

Sundin's big advantage is international play, something the HHOF committee doesn't historically look at.

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11-25-2012, 12:39 PM
  #149
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
Sundin missed what? ... 20 of his teams' last 40 playoff games?

Alfredsson miraculously played every single playoff game during a 3-4 year stretch in which he was decimated by injuries in the regular season. Then he plays a couple more playoff games in 2008 after he was diagnosed with a season ending knee surgery. You can't expect a player to play injured and produce at 100%.

Regardless, I'm satisfied that Alfredsson matched or exceeded Sundin's postseasons... as he did in the regular season.

Sundin was stayed healthier and played longer; Alfredsson had a higher peak.
That was my point - if you want to talk about context, that's fine. But don't present the data that favours Alfredsson (goal-scoring and peak playoffs) while not presenting the data that favours Sundin (playmaking and consistency in playoffs) and pretend that it's a fair comparison.

That being said - even if we exclude Alfredsson's 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 playoffs (because he was injured in those regular season - though I don't remember if he was better by the playoffs), 2008 (played through injury) and 2012 (at age 39 - Sundin's last postseason was at age 37), Alfredsson has 71 points in 80 games (0.89 ppg), which is virtually even with Sundin's 82 points in 91 games (0.90 ppg). Even after we selectively remove Alfredsson's weaker playoffs, he's still only tied with Sundin in terms of offensive production.

====

Alfredsson having a higher peak is debatable.

- Over their best three seasons, Alfredsson average 97 adjusted points per hockey-reference and Sundin averaged 95 points. Over their best five seasons, Alfredsson is ahead 93-92. I'd call this a virtual draw.

- Another way of looking at it: over their best five seasons, Alfredsson was 4th, 7th, 9th 15th and 17th in scoring (averaged between 10th and 11th place). Sundin was 4th, 7th, 11th, 11th and 12th in scoring (averaged 9th place). I'd also call this a virtual draw.

- Alfredsson was clearly better defensively. Advantage Alfredsson.

- Sundin did more with less. During his five best offensive seasons (based on the adjusted stats on HR) Alfredsson never led his team in scoring. During his five best offensive seasons (again, based on HR adjusted stats), Sundin led his team in scoring each time, by an average of 19 (unadjusted) points. Advantage Sundin.

- Neither was ever a serious contender for Hart. Each placed in the top ten only once (Sundin 8th in 2002, Alfredsson 5th in 2006). Advantage for Alfredsson, but it's small.

- Sundin was a second-team all-star twice (2002, 2004), Alfredsson was a second-team all-star once (2006). My research shows that Alfredsson was also a third-team all-star once (2008). Close, as Sundin did marginally better, and it was against tougher competition.

There are arguments in favour of both players but I see regular season NHL peak as a virtual draw.


Last edited by Hockey Outsider: 11-25-2012 at 03:12 PM.
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Old
11-25-2012, 04:19 PM
  #150
tony d
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I think he's borderline at this point. The guy could have used another 100 point season and a Stanley Cup on his resume.

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