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Old
11-24-2012, 06:47 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by HockeyThoughts View Post
Yeah, who would ever want to be a crappy 8th seed.. like the LA kings..
La wasn't crappy, they had a defensive coach for most of the year, and did great when they swapped. Compare some other #8's.

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11-24-2012, 07:05 PM
  #27
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Im a big backer of Grabovski on the first line, I really think he should get more time there. He's great defensively and proved 2 years ago with KGM he could produce offence at a first line rate and defend mostly top competition. His defense and cycle ability could help Kessel/Lupul a lot and Grabo can easily keep up with the two speed wise.

Ive heard a lot that the fact Grabo likes the puck on his stick in the neutral zone being a negative because Kessel likes the same thing and that they lack chemistry. I dont know where the latter idea came from, they always look great together to me. And I think the former issue is a minor one. Some people like to have a perfect arrangement of shooters, playmakers, 2 way players on their lines but in the end what you need is skill. Kessel and Lupul are both shooters yet do great together anyways. Skilled players will overcome little things like both wanting to carry the puck and I dont think its a good enough reason to keep Grabo off the first line.



Just an example of a nice pass from Kessel to Grabo. Small sample size but I think their chemistry is just fine. I think Grabo should get a sizeable shot at the first line in training camp/preseason. Finding a #1 centre is extremely difficult and I think we should at least exhaust all our options first.

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11-24-2012, 07:12 PM
  #28
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^ Phaneuf was an absolute beast in that highlight, love it.

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11-24-2012, 07:27 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by HockeyThoughts View Post
Yeah, who would ever want to be a crappy 8th seed.. like the LA kings..
You're right, now we're just a franchise goalie, d-man and forward away from being like them!

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11-24-2012, 08:04 PM
  #30
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[QUOTE=Captain Clutch 13;56006729]Im a big backer of Grabovski on the first line, I really think he should get more time there. He's great defensively and proved 2 years ago with KGM he could produce offence at a first line rate and defend mostly top competition. His defense and cycle ability could help Kessel/Lupul a lot and Grabo can easily keep up with the two speed wise.

Ive heard a lot that the fact Grabo likes the puck on his stick in the neutral zone being a negative because Kessel likes the same thing and that they lack chemistry. I dont know where the latter idea came from, they always look great together to me. And I think the former issue is a minor one. Some people like to have a perfect arrangement of shooters, playmakers, 2 way players on their lines but in the end what you need is skill. Kessel and Lupul are both shooters yet do great together anyways. Skilled players will overcome little things like both wanting to carry the puck and I dont think its a good enough reason to keep Grabo off the first line.



I think your not considering a few things here:

1. Grabo and Kessel have shown they don't have chemistry together, been there/done that and it didn't work out. Some players just don't connect, not blaming Kessel or Grabo, its just what it is.

2. Grabo really isn't that great defensively, I don't know where your getting this from but you really need to think things through before posting an opinion. Yes, Grabo hustles back, and yes he is good at take away but there's more to defense then those two things. I'll give you this Grabo is better then Bozak in his own end, but at the end of the day and at best he's just.... average

3. Grabo while playing 2nd line sheltered minutes gets rocked a lot by opponents. If you put him out on the top line he'll be facing the other teams best defencmen and their grittiest fowards, which means Grabo will get hit a lot more often and with a lot more intensity.

4. 58 points is not considered "1st line" production, albeit it's very decent 2nd line production though.

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11-24-2012, 08:11 PM
  #31
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So perfect

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11-24-2012, 08:16 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Leaffan16 View Post
La wasn't crappy, they had a defensive coach for most of the year, and did great when they swapped. Compare some other #8's.
Like EDM in 06? they wouldn't have even made the playoffs without the Loser point.

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11-24-2012, 08:23 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Kingstonian84 View Post
3. Grabo while playing 2nd line sheltered minutes gets rocked a lot by opponents. If you put him out on the top line he'll be facing the other teams best defencmen and their grittiest fowards, which means Grabo will get hit a lot more often and with a lot more intensity.
The Grabo line played against the top pairings for almost half of the 10-11 season. He did fine.

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11-24-2012, 08:26 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Kingstonian84 View Post
1. Grabo and Kessel have shown they don't have chemistry together, been there/done that and it didn't work out. Some players just don't connect, not blaming Kessel or Grabo, its just what it is.
Not sure how we can make this conclusion considering that they've never spent any significant time together. The rare time Kessel gets double shifted on Grabo's wing there is always a scoring chance. They definitely work 4-on-4. A few seconds before Grabo scored that awesome OT goal against Montreal he set up Kessel for what looked like a sure thing. Putting those two on the same line is a bad idea because then the Leafs are a one-line team, not because they wouldnt be any good.

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11-24-2012, 10:52 PM
  #35
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[QUOTE=Kingstonian84;56008235]
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Originally Posted by Captain Clutch 13 View Post
Im a big backer of Grabovski on the first line, I really think he should get more time there. He's great defensively and proved 2 years ago with KGM he could produce offence at a first line rate and defend mostly top competition. His defense and cycle ability could help Kessel/Lupul a lot and Grabo can easily keep up with the two speed wise.

Ive heard a lot that the fact Grabo likes the puck on his stick in the neutral zone being a negative because Kessel likes the same thing and that they lack chemistry. I dont know where the latter idea came from, they always look great together to me. And I think the former issue is a minor one. Some people like to have a perfect arrangement of shooters, playmakers, 2 way players on their lines but in the end what you need is skill. Kessel and Lupul are both shooters yet do great together anyways. Skilled players will overcome little things like both wanting to carry the puck and I dont think its a good enough reason to keep Grabo off the first line.



I think your not considering a few things here:

1. Grabo and Kessel have shown they don't have chemistry together, been there/done that and it didn't work out. Some players just don't connect, not blaming Kessel or Grabo, its just what it is.

2. Grabo really isn't that great defensively, I don't know where your getting this from but you really need to think things through before posting an opinion. Yes, Grabo hustles back, and yes he is good at take away but there's more to defense then those two things. I'll give you this Grabo is better then Bozak in his own end, but at the end of the day and at best he's just.... average

3. Grabo while playing 2nd line sheltered minutes gets rocked a lot by opponents. If you put him out on the top line he'll be facing the other teams best defencmen and their grittiest fowards, which means Grabo will get hit a lot more often and with a lot more intensity.

4. 58 points is not considered "1st line" production, albeit it's very decent 2nd line production though.
1. Kessel and Grabo have barely played together, but when they have, they've actually been pretty productive. I can dig up stats if you want but I'm too lazy right now.

2. Well yeah, he's not great defensively, but he plays a solid two-way game, which is more than enough from a scoring center.

3. Grabo plays some of the least sheltered minutes of anyone on the team. The Mac-Grabo-Kulemin generally have been playing against the opposition's best for a couple of seasons now (if you check the QualComp stats), and have done a pretty admirable job (if you check the GA/60 and Rel Corsi stats).

4. It's more than 'decent', that level of production would put Grabo in the upper echelon of second-line centers. Put together solid checking line who can play those tough minutes against the opposition's top players and I wouldn't be surprised to see Grabo crack 60 points against lesser competition.

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11-24-2012, 11:17 PM
  #36
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[QUOTE=Frank Stallone;56011889]
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Originally Posted by Kingstonian84 View Post
1. Kessel and Grabo have barely played together, but when they have, they've actually been pretty productive. I can dig up stats if you want but I'm too lazy right now.

2. Well yeah, he's not great defensively, but he plays a solid two-way game, which is more than enough from a scoring center.

3. Grabo plays some of the least sheltered minutes of anyone on the team. The Mac-Grabo-Kulemin generally have been playing against the opposition's best for a couple of seasons now (if you check the QualComp stats), and have done a pretty admirable job (if you check the GA/60 and Rel Corsi stats).

4. It's more than 'decent', that level of production would put Grabo in the upper echelon of second-line centers. Put together solid checking line who can play those tough minutes against the opposition's top players and I wouldn't be surprised to see Grabo crack 60 points against lesser competition.
I would counter argue as well but this post about covers it. 60 points is enough for a first line player, especially if the other 2 first liners are scoring 70-80. Think Justin Williams with Kopitar and Brown. There arent very many teams with 3 slam dunk first liners on their team and considering two of ours were all stars last year I can live with one being a fringe 1st liner.

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11-24-2012, 11:30 PM
  #37
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It depends on which Grabovski you look at. The PPG+ Grabovski is absolutely a 1st line player, though as a non-playmaking center, he's not the most desirable #1C. The 0.4 PPG Grabovski would have trouble qualifying for a roster spot.

I realize that every player is streaky to an extent, but in the case of Grabo, the difference in performance is pretty pronounced, and the timing of his streaks is very predictable. Should the Leafs make the playoffs with Grabo as #2C, I can just see him completely disappear when the regular season ends.

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11-24-2012, 11:36 PM
  #38
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His defense and cycle ability could help Kessel/Lupul a lot...

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11-24-2012, 11:52 PM
  #39
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1. Kessel and Grabo have barely played together, but when they have, they've actually been pretty productive. I can dig up stats if you want but I'm too lazy right now.
They aren't any better than the numbers with Bozak centering them. If we aren't going to improve the top line either offensively, or defensively, then why make the change? Bozak is a better defensive center, and his style meshes a lot better with Kessel/Lupul.

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2. Well yeah, he's not great defensively, but he plays a solid two-way game, which is more than enough from a scoring center.
The Kessel line needs more than an average (at best) defensive player to help balance the line out.

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3. Grabo plays some of the least sheltered minutes of anyone on the team. The Mac-Grabo-Kulemin generally have been playing against the opposition's best for a couple of seasons now (if you check the QualComp stats), and have done a pretty admirable job (if you check the GA/60 and Rel Corsi stats).
Tell me, what effect would having to constantly face checking lines have on a player's QualComp stats, as opposed to say facing 2nd liners? Advanced stats are inherently flawed, and not much better than looking at +/-.

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4. It's more than 'decent', that level of production would put Grabo in the upper echelon of second-line centers. Put together solid checking line who can play those tough minutes against the opposition's top players and I wouldn't be surprised to see Grabo crack 60 points against lesser competition.
If he could time his hot streaks to stretches of the season when the team needs production out him, it'd be nice.

If facing "lesser competition" means going up against shutdown lines (including faceoff specialists) and first pairing defensemen every night, I seriously doubt he'd break 60 points.

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11-25-2012, 12:26 AM
  #40
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Originally Posted by 4evaBlue View Post
Bozak is a better defensive center, and his style meshes a lot better with Kessel/Lupul.
How so?

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Originally Posted by 4evaBlue View Post
Tell me, what effect would having to constantly face checking lines have on a player's QualComp stats, as opposed to say facing 2nd liners?
MacArthur/Grabo/Kulemin lead the team in Rel. Corsi QualComp, meaning they played against the opposition's best players in terms of puck possession. If they played less against the opposition's best in terms of puck possession, it's pretty safe to assume they would control the puck more (they do a great job of this already, even against top competition), which would mean more scoring chances, which could translate into more scoring.

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If he could time his hot streaks to stretches of the season when the team needs production out him, it'd be nice.
That doesn't really make sense. Every game is worth the same two points as every other game. Statistically he's actually been one of our better players in 'important' games (against divisional rivals). IIRC he scored four goals in our six games against the Bruins last season, and you remember how the team as a whole played against them....


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11-25-2012, 12:34 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by 4evaBlue View Post
They aren't any better than the numbers with Bozak centering them.
On what facts are you basing this? Support your argument. Prove him wrong.

Although I suppose if the numbers favoured Grabovski you'd claim small sample size.

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Tell me, what effect would having to constantly face checking lines have on a player's QualComp stats, as opposed to say facing 2nd liners? Advanced stats are inherently flawed, and not much better than looking at +/-.
True that advanced stats can't be looked at as absolute indications of play, but they do give context from which observations can be made. Grabo has routinely produced at a second-line level against higher competition, which not only means he's scoring against more skilled opponents, but also keeping the puck off their sticks and in their defensive zone. His possession stats are great. Look 'em up.

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If he could time his hot streaks to stretches of the season when the team needs production out him, it'd be nice.
Nit picky. Nothing to say about how his production during his so-called hot streak helped put the team in a playoff position in February for the first time in what seems like 5 years.

Doesn't help that one-third of his usual line was an offensive black hole last season. And don't give me that crap about how he should have been able to get Kulemin back on track. Those of us watching the games and not the stats sheets saw how many glorious opportunities Kulemin flubbed on. Yet Grabovski still maintained an almost exact points-per-game pace as his previous season.

Seems like you're blaming Grabo for not saving our season in March/April ("when it counts"). Almost EVERYONE's production tailed off after the trade deadline. That's typically what you see when there's a big losing streak.

Hockey is a game of highs and lows. Only the truly elite maintain their consistency throughout an entire season. That's why we see so few 1.0 PPG players. If you want to continue to berate Grabovski for not producing when the team was in its biggest tailspin in a decade, that's your prerogative. But it's best you apply that standard to every player, since there's a lot of blame to go around. Otherwise it just seems you're being overly harsh to prove a point.

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11-25-2012, 12:49 AM
  #42
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How so?
The best lines are the ones where every player has a different role to play to their success. What makes you think that getting a Kessel-extra-lite centering the line would improve the line?

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Originally Posted by Frank Stallone View Post
MacArthur/Grabo/Kulemin lead the team in Rel. Corsi QualComp, meaning they played against the opposition's best players in terms of puck possession. If they played less against the opposition's best in terms of puck possession, it's pretty safe to assume they would control the puck more, which would mean more scoring chances, which could translate into more scoring.
Look around the league and compare teams' top six to their checking line(s). Who do you think Grabo would have a harder time to score against? Also, the number of shots taken on net is not necessarily proportional to puck possession.

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That doesn't really make sense. Every game is worth the same two points as every other game. Statistically he's actually been one of our better players in 'important' games (against divisional rivals). IIRC he scored four goals in our six games against the Bruins last season, and you remember how the team as a whole played against them....
When a team is on a roll, it's much easier to stand out (Reimer's emergence in the NHL, Grabo's January of 2012, etc). Ideally, you want players who are pushing the team to new heights and aren't just along for the ride.

In January, a lot of things were going well for the Leafs. Gustavsson was playing well, the PK was amazing, and yes, Grabo played great. Chances are, had Grabo not caught fire, we still would have had a decent record due to the rest of the teams' performance.

Conversely, if it wasn't for the Kessel line's performance to start the season, we would have been discussing out chances to win the lottery pick by Xmas time.

Please remind me. How did Grabo do against the Bruins last season for those "all so important" division rivalry games?

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11-25-2012, 01:13 AM
  #43
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Great 2nd line centre.

Those saying he's a 3rd line centre are absolutely delirious.

He's on a Weiss/Plekanec -ish level. Higher than the Berglund/Little -ish level. And a bit lower than the Stastny/Pavelski -ish level.

Pretty confusing eh, plain and simple he's a 2nd line C who should not be the mainstay on a top line

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11-25-2012, 01:17 AM
  #44
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On what facts are you basing this? Support your argument. Prove him wrong.

Although I suppose if the numbers favoured Grabovski you'd claim small sample size.
The Kessel line is just fine offensively, and I seriously doubt Grabo of all players would be what's needed to "fix" the line defensively. If people want to change the Kessel line, to presumably produce better, shouldn't the burden of proof be on them? We all know how the Lupul-Bozak-Kessel line has done offensively since they've been together.

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True that advanced stats can't be looked at as absolute indications of play, but they do give context from which observations can be made. Grabo has routinely produced at a second-line level against higher competition, which not only means he's scoring against more skilled opponents, but also keeping the puck off their sticks and in their defensive zone. His possession stats are great. Look 'em up.
What's this magical possession stat you speak of? The Grabo line has produced at a 2nd line pace against better offensive (worse defensive) forwards they've been facing for the past two seasons. Assuming that their production would increase when they're matched up against worse offensive, but better defensive forwards is a stretch, to say the least.

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Nit picky. Nothing to say about how his production during his so-called hot streak helped put the team in a playoff position in February for the first time in what seems like 5 years.
Addressed this in previous post.

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Doesn't help that one-third of his usual line was an offensive black hole last season. And don't give me that crap about how he should have been able to get Kulemin back on track. Those of us watching the games and not the stats sheets saw how many glorious opportunities Kulemin flubbed on. Yet Grabovski still maintained an almost exact points-per-game pace as his previous season.
Here comes the predictable watching the games vs score sheet argument, from people who are using fundamentally flawed "advanced metrics" to prove a point. Please.

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Seems like you're blaming Grabo for not saving our season in March/April ("when it counts"). Almost EVERYONE's production tailed off after the trade deadline. That's typically what you see when there's a big losing streak.
And where was he for the start of the season? Oh, nevermind, that's pretty typical of Grabo, too.

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Hockey is a game of highs and lows. Only the truly elite maintain their consistency throughout an entire season. That's why we see so few 1.0 PPG players. If you want to continue to berate Grabovski for not producing when the team was in its biggest tailspin in a decade, that's your prerogative. But it's best you apply that standard to every player, since there's a lot of blame to go around. Otherwise it just seems you're being overly harsh to prove a point.
Had you actually read the posts, you'd realize that it's not just about the end of season collapse. But hey, if you want to use the January stretch to convince yourself that Grabo is an elite player, and he should be a no-brainer choice for #1C going forward, go right ahead.

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11-25-2012, 01:23 AM
  #45
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The best lines are the ones where every player has a different role to play to their success. What makes you think that getting a Kessel-extra-lite centering the line would improve the line?
Playing a different position aside, I'm not sure why you think Grabo's game resembles Kessel's at all....


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Look around the league and compare teams' top six to their checking line(s). Who do you think Grabo would have a harder time to score against? Also, the number of shots taken on net is not necessarily proportional to puck possession.
It's not about top six/bottom six, it's just about being matched up against opponents who are best at possessing the puck (or at least getting shots on net as you mentioned)

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When a team is on a roll, it's much easier to stand out (Reimer's emergence in the NHL, Grabo's January of 2012, etc). Ideally, you want players who are pushing the team to new heights and aren't just along for the ride.
How do you differentiate between players who are pushing the team to new heights and players who are just along for the ride?

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Please remind me. How did Grabo do against the Bruins last season for those "all so important" division rivalry games?
I think you missed the last sentence in that quote (4 goals in 6 games)

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11-25-2012, 01:34 AM
  #46
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Grabo is one of the best 2nd line centres in the league. He is a 1b imo, doesn't gel with kessel, only reason why they are on different lines

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11-25-2012, 01:53 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Frank Stallone View Post
Playing a different position aside, I'm not sure why you think Grabo's game resembles Kessel's at all....
They're both fairly fast, soft, shoot first type players, with good stickhandling skills, who aren't good defensively. Main difference is Kessel is a much better playmaker (though worse defensively), and doesn't knowingly put himself into suicide positions.

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It's not about top six/bottom six, it's just about being matched up against opponents who are best at possessing the puck (or at least getting shots on net as you mentioned)
One is generally better at creating chances, while the other is generally better at preventing chances (and also being tougher to play against physically). While facing shutdown lines would certainly result in a decrease in QualComp, I don't see how anyone could say that it would also result in a boost in production.

Comparing corsi of teams who dominate the boards and cycling to run and gun teams (who may get more shots on net) is very deceptive. Then you use those fudged figures to assign a "quality" to a player, which in turn is used to further fudge QualComp and RelCorsi figures.

I really wish the league would track actual possession stats.

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How do you differentiate between players who are pushing the team to new heights and players who are just along for the ride?
Players who step up when the rest of the team is playing like crap. It's probably most apparently for goalies who constantly steal games Basically, answering the question of where the team would have been without player X for a stretch of Y would be the main determining factor.

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I think you missed the last sentence in that quote (4 goals in 6 games)
Ah, my bad. Didn't bother to double check, I just figured you were talking about those two seasons ago with the infamous Grabo dominating the Bruins game (when he got crushed by Chara 2x). I'll take one of those games over scoring once in 4 out of 6 games, while averaging 1.5 shots per game.

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11-25-2012, 09:08 AM
  #48
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Originally Posted by Kingstonian84 View Post
Grabos a middle of the pack 2nd line centre IMO, theres 15 better then him, 14 worse then he is.

Grabo brings certain tangibles- speed, hustle, abiltity to drive the oppositon back. However there are big things he comes up short in such as playmaking, heart and not to mention on a good day his defensive zone coverage is average at best.

At the end of the day though, he's by far our best centre out of everyone and it would be very foolish to write him out of town.
Excuse me?

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11-25-2012, 09:25 AM
  #49
Leaf Rocket
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In a great team, Grabovski is a the number 2 guy, that great guy who will do everything in his power to get things going. I know he has shown great flashes but I just don't think he has that upper level skill to be the number one. Maybe a 1B or if there was a level a 1C as a team doesn't have a first line center but as much as I love Grabo, can't see him as a number one.

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11-25-2012, 09:58 AM
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crump
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaf Rocket View Post
In a great team, Grabovski is a the number 2 guy, that great guy who will do everything in his power to get things going. I know he has shown great flashes but I just don't think he has that upper level skill to be the number one. Maybe a 1B or if there was a level a 1C as a team doesn't have a first line center but as much as I love Grabo, can't see him as a number one.
Right now he is playing with Datsyuk, albeit in another league. I agree with you
LR, he seems to fit that 2-way centre mod well. He isn't elite 2 way, like a Bergeron. He can put up similar numbers but he isn't at that level of faceoff/ defensive game to be called elite shutdown centre.
I like him where he is right now. He could work on his game to become that elite shutdown guy rather than a first line centre.

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