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Old
11-26-2012, 08:17 PM
  #101
Duke Silver
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Originally Posted by 4evaBlue View Post
I'll tell you what. I'll take the time to do the data gathering to prove or disprove it if you back up all your claims with facts (all the glorious chances Kulemin's missed, Grabo's super tough matchups, examples of Grabo's "routine hard back-checks").
Are you saying Kulemin wasn't snake-bitten last season? You don't open nets missed and posts hit? I can't watch the games for you.

I bet I would have an easier time having people corroborate what I said than you would with you spouted.

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It's merely an illustration of how folly using shots on net as an indication of puck possession and scoring chances is. The competition Grabo faced wasn't all that great, either. Feel free to prove your claim with icetimes against those supposed tough matchups Grabo's faced, and not by using some flawed statistics you managed to Google.
You've got it all backwards.

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Here we go with the corsi crap again.
Yeah, who needs advanced stats like Corsi and QualComp when we have our imaginations, right?

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Yes, and those opinions are based on looking at their offensive production in vacuum, completely ignoring the roles players play, and defensive matchups they face while achieving their point totals. If a center is unable to play effectively between a PFW and a sniper winger, they'll have a tough time replacing most centers around the league.
Then you're in the wrong thread. The OP was trying to show how he compares to his peers. You've just distorted the conversation to suit your narrative.

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Yes, if Grabo could reprorduce his 59 point career year, while facing tougher defensive matchups, he could potentially quality as a welfare #1C.
Who is a better centerman, linemates removed from the equation: Bozak or Grabovski?

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Let's say the puck is turned over while Grabo crosses the blue line, who's preventing the odd man rush the other way? Lupul? Kessel is more than capable of carrying the puck in over the blue line with speed and backing up the defenders. Why do we need a lite version of him on the line to do that?
Because it opens up even more space for him? Rather than having Kessel do all the work on the line, Grabovski could help shoulder the load and open up even more opportunities for Lupul and Kessel.

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And I counter with "Don't try to fix what isn't broken".
And I counter with "How do you know it can't be improved upon?"

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That's the thing. The first line isn't relying on him to be an offensive catalyst. I agree that Bozak should ideally be used on the 3rd line, where he could use his offensive skills a lot more effectively. Putting Grabo between Kessel and Lupul to be an offensive catalyst would, IMO, open up huge defensive lapses.
Mull over those bolded parts.

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It's not so much take out, but examine the streaks separately. I gave him props for his awesome hot streak. If he could play half as well for the rest of the season, he'd actually earn his paycheck.
Let's not get started about paychecks for pending UFAs. Grabovski's a 55-60 point player being paid like a 65 point player. It's nothing to bellyache over, especially when his contract isn't hampering the team from doing anything. It's foolish to complain about his salary.

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So observing trends is now considered biased? You don't believe Grabo's a notoriously slow starter? You should notify the broadcasters that all this hot and cold streaks nonsense is meaningless, and they should just use Q1, and Q2 averages. Even better, use the before and after ASG splits, since that removes even more variance.
Only focusing on the bad parts is biased. That's what you are essentially doing by saying "take away the hot streak and see how great he was." You're never as good as your highest high and you're never as bad as your lowest low. If you're going to take out his hot streak in your evaluation, take away his biggest cold streak too. The results will meet in the middle instead of being dragged down because you pulled the data that painted Grabo in the most favourable light.

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11-26-2012, 09:58 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Are you saying Kulemin wasn't snake-bitten last season? You don't open nets missed and posts hit? I can't watch the games for you.
So I'm the only one who's expected to prove my claims/observations. I see. Sure he could have gotten a few more goals, but the fact that his shot totals dropped drastically (as did Grabo's) shows that the line wasn't generating nearly as much offense as they were in the previous season.

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Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
I bet I would have an easier time having people corroborate what I said than you would with you spouted.
With the majority of the board having a mancrush on him, no doubt. Remember last season when he was deemed almost as valuable to the team as Kessel? Yeah, it's not even close, and it wasn't back then, either.

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You've got it all backwards.
Facing lines who's main role is to stifle opposition's offense, and shutdown defensemen pairings will makes it harder to produce offensively than playing against 2nd pairing defensemen and 2nd lines on most nights. It's not really rocket science once you let go of the crutch referred to as "advanced stats".

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Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Yeah, who needs advanced stats like Corsi and QualComp when we have our imaginations, right?
Coaches and GMs must be idiots for putting no stock in those "advanced" stats, right? Think about it, why do you think that would be the case?

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Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Then you're in the wrong thread. The OP was trying to show how he compares to his peers. You've just distorted the conversation to suit your narrative.
The OP only used offensive production, since the defensive part of a player's game is really not quantifiable. To his credit, he didn't resort to referencing idiotic corsi figures.

Looking at the potential chemistry between him, a PFW winger, and a sniping winger is very relevant when evaluating how well he could hold the #1C position around the league. The majority of #1Cs are playmakers for a reason.

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Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Who is a better centerman, linemates removed from the equation: Bozak or Grabovski?
When only considering the raw natural skill, Grabo by a decent margin. Bozak brings a lot more intangibles to the table, though, which IMO, makes him more valuable to the team than Grabo.

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Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Because it opens up even more space for him? Rather than having Kessel do all the work on the line, Grabovski could help shoulder the load and open up even more opportunities for Lupul and Kessel.
Offense is not really a concern for the Kessel line. Had Lupul not gotten injured, it's not really a stretch to assume that he could have remained a PPG player, and Kessel would have netted 10+ points. When it comes to offense, our biggest problem was the lack of consistent secondary scoring (which Grabo's main responsibility), and relying on the Kessel line too much.

The Kessel line could use improvements in their cycling game, and their work along the boards in the defensive zone, but Grabo would not be the player for that role, either. Bozak is a lot better at doing the dirty work.

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Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
And I counter with "How do you know it can't be improved upon?"
I've said numerous times why I think it wasn't the case. If you chose to ignore then, you'll ignore it again.

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Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Mull over those bolded parts.
Not sure how I can say this without constantly repeating myself. How about you mull over the bolded parts.

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Let's not get started about paychecks for pending UFAs. Grabovski's a 55-60 point player being paid like a 65 point player. It's nothing to bellyache over, especially when his contract isn't hampering the team from doing anything. It's foolish to complain about his salary.
He's only actually hit 55-60 point once, during his career year. Not sure I'd call him that until he hits it at least a couple of more times. So far, he's a 50'ish point player with a 59 point career high, getting paid like a 65 point player. He's also nearing the end of his prime years, and could be on the verge of the wrong side of 30 when hockey resumes again.

Salary isn't my main beef. I'm fine with overpaying Connolly as a stopgap, and would have been fine with overpaying Grabo as a stopgap. It's the 5 year term (at $1-1.5M/year overpayment) that's brutal.

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Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Only focusing on the bad parts is biased. That's what you are essentially doing by saying "take away the hot streak and see how great he was." You're never as good as your highest high and you're never as bad as your lowest low. If you're going to take out his hot streak in your evaluation, take away his biggest cold streak too. The results will meet in the middle instead of being dragged down because you pulled the data that painted Grabo in the most favourable light.
Naturally, when you criticize someone, you focus on the things that need improvement, and the areas where he doesn't measure up in.

Let me clarify a bit more. When looking at his streaks, both hot and cold, in Grabo's case, they were a direct indication of his play on the ice. Outside of that month and a half, his shot totals declined, and he was a non factor on the ice. So while the lack of production during those stretches is one of the issues, but not fulfilling his primary role (being a consistent offensive threat, regardless of being able to find the back of the net) is the main the problem.

If he was averaging 6 shots a game, and showed that he was generating the chances, it wouldn't be so much of an issue. Instead, he was held to 1 shot or less for 1/3rd of the season worth of games (a full season, not the # of his games played). I'm sorry, but that's #$@n pathetic. When opposing coaches don't even have to worry about out 2nd line for the vast majority of the season, there's a problem.

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11-26-2012, 10:12 PM
  #103
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Is Grabovski a legitimate #2 C in this league? Easily yes. Statistically, he is #24 C in scoring over the last two years. Sure, there is more to scoring, and he was above 50% in faceoffs last year...

Is he a #2 C on a Stanley Cup winning team? Not yet, but then there are plenty of good players who would qualify as such.

Teams such as San Jose Tampa Bay and Vancouver have better #2 C's, but then they aren't Stanley Cup winning teams either. (recently)

You have JvR and say Kadri on his wings, he probably a 60 point guy.

The issue with this team isn't that he is a #2 C, it is that there is no legit #1C, nor a goalie... far bigger fish to fry.

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11-26-2012, 10:25 PM
  #104
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Ok time to settle this absurd debate once and for all and that is Grabo is a 2nd line centre, and you know what there is nothing wrong with that. You know people are missing hockey when they start absurdly trying to debate that Grabo is a #1 centre, lol people just get over it.

To put this in better prespective- If Grabo can't even be a a #1 centre on a crappy leafs team, he would have an even harder time cracking the #1C role on a good to great team.

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11-26-2012, 11:36 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by 4evaBlue View Post
Bozak's primary role on that line was not to provide offense, Grabo's was.



4 goals in 6 games is good. It almost implies a dominating presence against the Bruins. 9 shots in 6 games from a sniper doesn't seem to match that impression. I'm glad almost half of his shots found the back of the net, but that hardly means he played great games.
The poster I was replying to was implying that Bozak somehow had better/the same offense as Grabo, so I replied in kind how Bozak got his points. I don't care what his role is, you can't compare Bozak to Grabo.

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11-26-2012, 11:42 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Kingstonian84 View Post
Ok time to settle this absurd debate once and for all and that is Grabo is a 2nd line centre, and you know what there is nothing wrong with that. You know people are missing hockey when they start absurdly trying to debate that Grabo is a #1 centre, lol people just get over it.

To put this in better prespective- If Grabo can't even be a a #1 centre on a crappy leafs team, he would have an even harder time cracking the #1C role on a good to great team.
The only people that believe Grabovski is a #1C are the people that believe there are 30 #1Cs in the league.... Since he's probably around the #30 when it comes to best centres in the league, you can see why people would debate this.

I personally don't see him as a #1C, but he is a very good #2C and I believe he could be the #2C on a Stanley cup winning team...

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11-26-2012, 11:43 PM
  #107
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Lupul and Kessel had career years with Bozak, infact Bozak had a career year. So either you give Kessel credit for making Bozak, or Bozak credit for actually contributing to his wingers success.

As for Grabo's supposed success against the Bruins last year, they were meaningless goals except for one game when the Leafs were actually it it. He scored a meaningless goal in the season opener late in the 3rd when the bruins were home and cooled out with a 6-1 in the lead. Remember that humilation?

Regardless when you are outscored 35-10 on the season, saying you are the best player with a collective pathetic effort against the Bruins is not something to be proud of. Grabo was -3 in the 6 games.
Mac and Kule had career years with Grabo as there center, I can play that game too. Kessel became a PPG player with the arrival of Lupul, Bozak had little to with it. I give him credit for being able to look competent in a role that he has no business being in, but if you actually believe that he was the reason for their(Kessel & Lupul) success then there really is no point in arguing with you.

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11-26-2012, 11:58 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by 4evaBlue View Post
Offense is not really a concern for the Kessel line. Had Lupul not gotten injured, it's not really a stretch to assume that he could have remained a PPG player, and Kessel would have netted 10+ points. When it comes to offense, our biggest problem was the lack of consistent secondary scoring (which Grabo's main responsibility), and relying on the Kessel line too much.

The Kessel line could use improvements in their cycling game, and their work along the boards in the defensive zone, but Grabo would not be the player for that role, either. Bozak is a lot better at doing the dirty work.
Yeah, it's all the guy who was actually able to keep up his production's fault for lack of secondary scoring. What about Kule, Connolly, Lombardi etc? You're biggest problem it seems is that you're dissapointed that Grabo isn't Sidney Crosby. Get over it! He can't force people to score goals and put up points, if he could then we'd be having a completely different argument.

Also, Grabo does a lot of the dirty work for his line! More than Bozak and more effectively!

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11-27-2012, 12:00 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Kingstonian84 View Post
Ok time to settle this absurd debate once and for all and that is Grabo is a 2nd line centre, and you know what there is nothing wrong with that. You know people are missing hockey when they start absurdly trying to debate that Grabo is a #1 centre, lol people just get over it.

To put this in better prespective- If Grabo can't even be a a #1 centre on a crappy leafs team, he would have an even harder time cracking the #1C role on a good to great team.

Who said that other than people like you? Not one person who has defended him has said that he is a #1 center. Some said that he could be a filler, but not a main stay. You people really have to get over yourselves!

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11-27-2012, 05:49 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by The Blue Devil View Post
The poster I was replying to was implying that Bozak somehow had better/the same offense as Grabo, so I replied in kind how Bozak got his points. I don't care what his role is, you can't compare Bozak to Grabo.
Your offense tends to suffer when you're tasked with covering for your line defensively. I believe Bozak is better offensively than what we've seen from him on the Kessel line. Conversely, if Grabo was assigned the role of designated defending forward for that line (not sure if he could actually do this effectively), his offense would suffer. Would the increase in his winger's skill level offset the production lost by the additional defensive responsibilities, and facing much tougher defensive matchups every night? Not sure.

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Yeah, it's all the guy who was actually able to keep up his production's fault for lack of secondary scoring. What about Kule, Connolly, Lombardi etc? You're biggest problem it seems is that you're dissapointed that Grabo isn't Sidney Crosby. Get over it! He can't force people to score goals and put up points, if he could then we'd be having a completely different argument.

Also, Grabo does a lot of the dirty work for his line! More than Bozak and more effectively!
Who said anything about Crosby? While some intangibles would be nice, and so would an additional 6" and 30 lbs, but we all know that won't happen with Grabo. What you see on the scoresheet is essentially what you get out of him.

The biggest thing I'd like from Grabo is a bit more consistent effort. I don't even care all that much if it shows up on the scoreboard, just cut down on the 0-1 shot games (read: invisible/non-factor for over 1/3rd of his games played last season). Especially when he's facing lesser defensive matchups. He's supposed to be a heart & soul guy, right?

I don't care about Connolly, and Lombari. Thankfully, they'll be gone by this time next year. Kulemin is very likely to be relegated to 3rd line duties, which should alleviate some offensive pressure off him, and be a better match for his skillset.

Naturally, I disagree with your assessment of Grabo's work in the tough areas, but you're entitled to your opinion.

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11-27-2012, 07:05 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Kingstonian84 View Post
Ok time to settle this absurd debate once and for all and that is Grabo is a 2nd line centre, and you know what there is nothing wrong with that. You know people are missing hockey when they start absurdly trying to debate that Grabo is a #1 centre, lol people just get over it.

To put this in better prespective- If Grabo can't even be a a #1 centre on a crappy leafs team, he would have an even harder time cracking the #1C role on a good to great team.
Lockout has nothing to do with it. Weve had this exact topic a couple times before


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11-27-2012, 07:13 AM
  #112
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Yeah, it's all the guy who was actually able to keep up his production's fault for lack of secondary scoring. What about Kule, Connolly, Lombardi etc? You're biggest problem it seems is that you're dissapointed that Grabo isn't Sidney Crosby. Get over it! He can't force people to score goals and put up points, if he could then we'd be having a completely different argument.

Also, Grabo does a lot of the dirty work for his line! More than Bozak and more effectively!
Don't even waste your time

I'm pretty sure he just keeps running the same post through some kind of synonym generator or something

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11-27-2012, 07:33 AM
  #113
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The biggest thing I'd like from Grabo is a bit more consistent effort.
Lolwut. You must live in some sort of bizarro world.

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11-27-2012, 07:56 AM
  #114
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Is Grabovski a legitimate #2 C in this league? Easily yes. Statistically, he is #24 C in scoring over the last two years. Sure, there is more to scoring, and he was above 50% in faceoffs last year...

Is he a #2 C on a Stanley Cup winning team? Not yet, but then there are plenty of good players who would qualify as such.

Teams such as San Jose Tampa Bay and Vancouver have better #2 C's, but then they aren't Stanley Cup winning teams either. (recently)

You have JvR and say Kadri on his wings, he probably a 60 point guy.

The issue with this team isn't that he is a #2 C, it is that there is no legit #1C, nor a goalie... far bigger fish to fry.
Anyone who doesn't look at Kulemin's horrible season offensively when evaluating the offensive contributions of his center is just being dishonest.

Lupul 42 assists playing with Kessel.
Bozak 29 assists playing with Kessel.
Grabovski 29 assists playing with Kulemin. Kulemin's worst season was his rookie season with 15 goals. Kulemin had 7 goals. Hard to generate points off 7 goals.

Everyone knows what happened to Kulemin last year.

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11-27-2012, 08:13 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by ULF_55 View Post
Anyone who doesn't look at Kulemin's horrible season offensively when evaluating the offensive contributions of his center is just being dishonest.

Lupul 42 assists playing with Kessel.
Bozak 29 assists playing with Kessel.
Grabovski 29 assists playing with Kulemin. Kulemin's worst season was his rookie season with 15 goals. Kulemin had 7 goals. Hard to generate points off 7 goals.

Everyone knows what happened to Kulemin last year.
A very good point, I didn't even consider it! Well said Ulfie!

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11-27-2012, 08:14 AM
  #116
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Lolwut. You must live in some sort of bizarro world.
Yes, in a world where a #2C who disappears for over a third of a season is deemed to be one of the best #2Cs in the league.

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11-27-2012, 08:25 AM
  #117
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Anyone who doesn't look at Kulemin's horrible season offensively when evaluating the offensive contributions of his center is just being dishonest.

Lupul 42 assists playing with Kessel.
Bozak 29 assists playing with Kessel.
Grabovski 29 assists playing with Kulemin. Kulemin's worst season was his rookie season with 15 goals. Kulemin had 7 goals. Hard to generate points off 7 goals.

Everyone knows what happened to Kulemin last year.
If Kulemin wasn't so snake bitten, and gets 7 more goals (to put his shooting % at around the league average of 13.5%), and Grabo gets an assist on 5 of those, it still wouldn't change the fact that the line was pretty ineffective for most of the season. They just didn't generate nearly enough chances.

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11-27-2012, 08:27 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by 4evaBlue View Post
If Kulemin wasn't so snake bitten, and gets 7 more goals (to put his shooting % at around the league average of 13.5%), and Grabo gets an assist on 5 of those, it still wouldn't change the fact that the line was pretty ineffective for most of the season. They just didn't generate nearly enough chances.
How about if he had contributed 14 more goals, which is more reasonable, consider 7 more goals would still be a career worst. Depression is a tough thing to work through, even when there isn't 18,000 people disecting your efforts.

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11-27-2012, 08:28 AM
  #119
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Yes, in a world where a #2C who disappears for over a third of a season is deemed to be one of the best #2Cs in the league.
Stats in this thread have shown he scored all season. From a purely numbers driven point of view, someone who scores .66 ppg, is not going to score in a third of the season no? Yet, Grabovski is in the top 30 points scoring C's in the last two years.

I'm not sure where you've set the bar as far as what a good #2C is, and what we should be hoping for? Perhaps you can define it for us.

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11-27-2012, 08:31 AM
  #120
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If Kulemin wasn't so snake bitten, and gets 7 more goals (to put his shooting % at around the league average of 13.5%), and Grabo gets an assist on 5 of those, it still wouldn't change the fact that the line was pretty ineffective for most of the season. They just didn't generate nearly enough chances.
Kulemin had a terrible year, understandable, and MacA had a poor year... this isn't particularly Grab's fault. Kulemin will bounce back, and if not there is Frattin and Kadri to consider... One of these three, plus JvR should be a significant upgrade over what our 2nd line produced last year.

No, the line was a disappointment last year, and despite this Grabs still produced fairly well.

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11-27-2012, 09:35 AM
  #121
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Originally Posted by Fogelhund View Post
Stats in this thread have shown he scored all season. From a purely numbers driven point of view, someone who scores .66 ppg, is not going to score in a third of the season no? Yet, Grabovski is in the top 30 points scoring C's in the last two years.

I'm not sure where you've set the bar as far as what a good #2C is, and what we should be hoping for? Perhaps you can define it for us.
I did, numerous times. Be an offensive threat consistently throughout the season to at least try to draw some of the defensive coverage from the Kessel line. Forget the extremely streaky production. Even if he's not scoring, taking 5-6 shots on net will draw some attention from the opposing bench. Last season, the team's offense was pretty much a one trick pony. Thankfully, they were too good to be shut down.

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Kulemin had a terrible year, understandable, and MacA had a poor year... this isn't particularly Grab's fault. Kulemin will bounce back, and if not there is Frattin and Kadri to consider... One of these three, plus JvR should be a significant upgrade over what our 2nd line produced last year.

No, the line was a disappointment last year, and despite this Grabs still produced fairly well.
I thought Mac actually had a decent season considering that he was swapped back and forth between the 2nd and 3rd line to try to rekindle the Connolly connection, and until Carlyle came around, he was averaging well below 15 mins per game. He took more shots on net, and nearly matched his goal totals from the previous season in less games. 20 goals is not bad for a playmaker. It was the lack of assists from his shooting linemates that accounted for the difference in his production. That includes both Grabo, and Kulie, as well as whatever other plugs Mac got stuck with during the season (Connolly, Lombardi, Frattin, etc).

JVR is a wildcard, obviously. We'll see where he fits in the lineup. Hopefully on the 2nd line to distibute the scoring threat a bit more. He can't be worse than what Kulie did last season. Offensively, anyways, not sure about the defensive part. A Kadri-Grabo-JVR line could end up being a defensive trainwreck.

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11-27-2012, 10:07 AM
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The Blue Devil
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Your offense tends to suffer when you're tasked with covering for your line defensively. I believe Bozak is better offensively than what we've seen from him on the Kessel line. Conversely, if Grabo was assigned the role of designated defending forward for that line (not sure if he could actually do this effectively), his offense would suffer. Would the increase in his winger's skill level offset the production lost by the additional defensive responsibilities, and facing much tougher defensive matchups every night? Not sure.



Who said anything about Crosby? While some intangibles would be nice, and so would an additional 6" and 30 lbs, but we all know that won't happen with Grabo. What you see on the scoresheet is essentially what you get out of him.

The biggest thing I'd like from Grabo is a bit more consistent effort. I don't even care all that much if it shows up on the scoreboard, just cut down on the 0-1 shot games (read: invisible/non-factor for over 1/3rd of his games played last season). Especially when he's facing lesser defensive matchups. He's supposed to be a heart & soul guy, right?
I don't care about Connolly, and Lombari. Thankfully, they'll be gone by this time next year. Kulemin is very likely to be relegated to 3rd line duties, which should alleviate some offensive pressure off him, and be a better match for his skillset.

Naturally, I disagree with your assessment of Grabo's work in the tough areas, but you're entitled to your opinion.
So first you're complaining that he doesn't score enough, now you're saying that scoring doesn't matter as much? Grabo is one of our most consistent players, points wise(He's averaged around the same PPG his whole career here) and effort wise. Are you ok?

I also thought you said shots were useless? Because that's what you were crying about when people used the corsi stat, that it was only a projection of shots. So now they're ok?

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11-27-2012, 10:10 AM
  #123
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Don't even waste your time

I'm pretty sure he just keeps running the same post through some kind of synonym generator or something
LOL, I know, it's just irritating reading that crap.

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11-27-2012, 10:22 AM
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I thought Mac actually had a decent season .
I thought Mac didn't have the same drive he had the year before. He played with a real edge the year before, and for whatever reason, didn't display the same tenacity last year.

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11-27-2012, 10:40 AM
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I thought Mac didn't have the same drive he had the year before. He played with a real edge the year before, and for whatever reason, didn't display the same tenacity last year.
Agreed, didn't have the same drive, was taking stupid penalties and was more of a mess in the defensive zone. Most likely more visible due to his game offensive number and game was invisible compared to the previous year.

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