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Habs odds of 1st overall Pick with no season

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11-27-2012, 03:17 PM
  #1
MauditGreek*
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Habs odds of 1st overall Pick with no season

Hi guys, just wondering what the odds are of the Habs winning the 1st overall pick in the next entry draft since there is no hockey this year.

I see the tank for McKinnon thread and I was wondering how the NHL will determine the draft order next summer?

Will it be an open lottery like the one for Crosby or is there another system in place?

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11-27-2012, 03:21 PM
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Depends on which system the NHL decides to use.


Never tell me the odds - Han(s) Solo

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11-27-2012, 03:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MauditGreek View Post
Hi guys, just wondering what the odds are of the Habs winning the 1st overall pick in the next entry draft since there is no hockey this year.

I see the tank for McKinnon thread and I was wondering how the NHL will determine the draft order next summer?

Will it be an open lottery like the one for Crosby or is there another system in place?
According to Bill Daly nothing has been decided on the draft lottery, so at this point we can't give odds.

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11-27-2012, 04:05 PM
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Oleg Petrov
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You would have to assume that it will be weighted on the standings of the past 1-5 seasons, last time they threw out a wrinkle that threw 1st overall draft picks into the equation. Given that, you are safe to assume that the Habs will be in the bottom third of the league and should have a half-decent shot at it.

But I believe the teams that will and should have the best odds are either the Leafs or Isles.

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11-27-2012, 04:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MauditGreek View Post
Hi guys, just wondering what the odds are of the Habs winning the 1st overall pick in the next entry draft since there is no hockey this year.

I see the tank for McKinnon thread and I was wondering how the NHL will determine the draft order next summer?

Will it be an open lottery like the one for Crosby or is there another system in place?
If it is the same as 2005, every team starts with 3 balls, and has 1 taken away for every post season they've made, and every 1st overall pick they've had in the last 3 years. Nobody could have less than 1. Montreal would have 1 ball, and a 2% chance of winning the lottery.

http://www.dirtydangle.com/2012/07/w...tery-look.html

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11-27-2012, 05:37 PM
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I desperately hope they weigh it based on last years standings.

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11-27-2012, 06:03 PM
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I desperately hope they weigh it based on last years standings.
Totally. That would be so great for Habs fans.

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11-27-2012, 06:08 PM
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Pierre Dagenais
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I hope they weigh it based on revenue sharing contributions

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11-27-2012, 06:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Pierre Dagenais View Post
I hope they weigh it based on revenue sharing contributions
New York Rangers draft Nathan MacKinnon
Toronto Maple Leafs draft Seth Jones
Montreal Canadiens draft Sasha Barkov

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11-27-2012, 06:29 PM
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Everybody is so ahead of themselves with this that it's getting a little ridiculous. It's all speculation at this point and not worth talking about until we actually know, there could even still be a half season.

That being said, it was pretty fun listening to the 2005 draft position lottery live. I was at work and remember they went in 10's and took a break. After 21-30, I was like sweet, Habs are drafting top 20! After 11-20, I was like sweet, Habs are drafting top 10! Then that top 10 countdown made me anxious like a playoff game, going through each number until the Habs were pulled at 5, which was not disappointing at all.

I feel like that was almost to good to be true that and if it happens again it'll be the opposite experience, "pick 30 belongs to the Montreal Canadiens."

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Old
11-27-2012, 06:33 PM
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Mathis Brunet of La Presse did the math last week if there's no season and the NHL use the same system as they did in 2005
http://blogues.lapresse.ca/lnh/2012/...saison-perdue/

Each team is given 3 balls but 1 ball would be taken away for each playoffs participation in the last 3 years and for each 1st overall draft pick in the last 4 years. Teams cannot have less than 1 ball.

Basically...
5 balls : Blue Jackets - 3 of their own and 2 with the draft picks from RNG in the Nash trade and LAK for the Jeff Carter trade
3 balls : Flames, Wilds, Stars, Jets, Leafs and Hurricanes
2 balls : Ducks, Avalanches, Blues, Lightning, Islanders and Panthers
1 ball : all the other teams except RNG and LAK.

There would be 50 balls in total and we'd have only 1.

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Old
11-27-2012, 07:26 PM
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Emanresu Wen
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we all know pittsburgh has the 1st overall

discussion should be about the 2nd pick







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Old
11-27-2012, 07:31 PM
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Who is this "Hans" guy and why isn't he hanging out with Gretel?

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11-27-2012, 07:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
New York Rangers draft Nathan MacKinnon
Toronto Maple Leafs draft Seth Jones
Montreal Canadiens draft Sasha Barkov
Yeah, I'll take that any day. ANY. Even if it means Leafs are getting Jones. What would piss me off more is NYR getting MacKinnon though, I probably hate their fanbase more than the Leafs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Etienne View Post
Mathis Brunet of La Presse did the math last week if there's no season and the NHL use the same system as they did in 2005
http://blogues.lapresse.ca/lnh/2012/...saison-perdue/

Each team is given 3 balls but 1 ball would be taken away for each playoffs participation in the last 3 years and for each 1st overall draft pick in the last 4 years. Teams cannot have less than 1 ball.

Basically...
5 balls : Blue Jackets - 3 of their own and 2 with the draft picks from RNG in the Nash trade and LAK for the Jeff Carter trade
3 balls : Flames, Wilds, Stars, Jets, Leafs and Hurricanes
2 balls : Ducks, Avalanches, Blues, Lightning, Islanders and Panthers
1 ball : all the other teams except RNG and LAK.

There would be 50 balls in total and we'd have only 1.
Wow that's absolutely terrible. There has to be some form of hockey this year.

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Old
11-27-2012, 07:34 PM
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I heard rumours about basing it on a past-five-years average or some such. I certainly hope not. Teams like the Oilers or Leafs that were in the basement long term got compensated already every time they finished last (even if they stupidly traded picks away, they were still enormous assets.)

The farther you get from the lost year, the less relevant the criteria used. Either base a weighted system on last years results or throw thirty balls in a bin and pick them one by one. But of course this is the NHL.

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Old
11-27-2012, 07:36 PM
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Originally Posted by poetryinmotion View Post
Yeah, I'll take that any day. ANY. Even if it means Leafs are getting Jones. What would piss me off more is NYR getting MacKinnon though, I probably hate their fanbase more than the Leafs.



Wow that's absolutely terrible. There has to be some form of hockey this year.
Colombus owns their pick if I'm not mistaken so I wouldn't mind this at all

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11-27-2012, 07:41 PM
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Colombus owns their pick if I'm not mistaken so I wouldn't mind this at all
Yep, that was just pure fantasy based on rev sharing haha.

Also this was a very bad year for PG to dismantle the team (other than picking Galchenyuk of course) because no one knows if we really underachieved last year as we all think we did. So we would get penalized for being a franchise on the upswing for the past couple of years and having playoff appearances only to see us becoming a lottery team with only one ball in one of the best drafts in history supposedly.

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11-27-2012, 07:43 PM
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Originally Posted by poetryinmotion View Post
Yep, that was just pure fantasy based on rev sharing haha.

Also this was a very bad year for PG to dismantle the team (other than picking Galchenyuk of course) because no one knows if we really underachieved last year as we all think we did. So we would get penalized for being a franchise on the upswing for the past couple of years and having playoff appearances only to see us becoming a lottery team with only one ball in one of the best drafts in history supposedly.
If Gauthier knew the season would be canceled he probably would have bargained hard for 2013 1st round draft picks.

Unless every GM in the league knew in which case it couldn't be done -- entirely possible.

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11-27-2012, 07:43 PM
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
If Gauthier knew the season would be canceled he probably would have bargained hard for 2013 1st round draft picks.

Unless every GM in the league knew in which case it couldn't be done -- entirely possible.
That too! Omg, the crappy value he got out of those trades.

At least we got 5 seconds, Timmins' specialty.

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11-27-2012, 07:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Bullsmith View Post
I heard rumours about basing it on a past-five-years average or some such. I certainly hope not. Teams like the Oilers or Leafs that were in the basement long term got compensated already every time they finished last (even if they stupidly traded picks away, they were still enormous assets.)

The farther you get from the lost year, the less relevant the criteria used. Either base a weighted system on last years results or throw thirty balls in a bin and pick them one by one. But of course this is the NHL.
The Oilers have the same chance as the Habs because of their multiple first overall picks the last 3 seasons.

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11-27-2012, 08:32 PM
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The Oilers have the same chance as the Habs because of their multiple first overall picks the last 3 seasons.
For me it's not so much about the Habs, it's about the NHL's obsession with making simple things complicated, random and opaque. Why not throw 30 balls in and make it a full on lottery? Why set arbitrary criteria that rewards teams extra for long term failure, instead of attracting fans from all markets to a unique fan experience?

I *** hate Bettman and the way he runs this league. Full disclosure.

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11-27-2012, 08:57 PM
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DAChampion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bullsmith View Post
For me it's not so much about the Habs, it's about the NHL's obsession with making simple things complicated, random and opaque. Why not throw 30 balls in and make it a full on lottery? Why set arbitrary criteria that rewards teams extra for long term failure, instead of attracting fans from all markets to a unique fan experience?

I *** hate Bettman and the way he runs this league. Full disclosure.
I think that on average the lesser teams should be able to get first dibbs on the better prospects.

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11-28-2012, 03:35 AM
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I think that on average the lesser teams should be able to get first dibbs on the better prospects.
But the point is, they already got first Dibbs in their respective years. Why should they be even further rewarded when they haven't even played?

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11-28-2012, 03:54 AM
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But the point is, they already got first Dibbs in their respective years. Why should they be even further rewarded when they haven't even played?
From one year to the next, some good teams become average teams, some bad teams become great teams, and some average teams become bad teams. However, the change is relatively slow. You usually end up with the same teams near the bottom, and the same teams near the top, it's a fair approximation.

Therefore, taking some pseudo-average of the past few years is more representative of what the draft order would be than 1 ball per team and pure lottery.

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11-28-2012, 07:13 AM
  #25
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They're not that high. I think they're only 2%, unless the lottery format/formula changes.

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