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Offseason Madness the 7th: Jose Reyes edition

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Old
11-27-2012, 08:19 PM
  #751
p.l.f.
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if cabrera shows more power say 20+ homers.... i kind of like this:

reyes
bonifacio
cabrera
bautista
encarnacion
lind
lawrie
arencebia
rasmus

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Old
11-27-2012, 08:33 PM
  #752
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Quote:
Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
if cabrera shows more power say 20+ homers.... i kind of like this:

reyes
bonifacio
cabrera
bautista
encarnacion
lind
lawrie
arencebia
rasmus
#3 hitter is always your best hitter. Our best hitter is Jose Bautista. EE most likely slots in 4th. Bonifacio doesn't have the avg to be a top third guy.

Reyes
Cabrera
Bautista
EE
Lind
Lawrie
Rasmus
Arencibia
Bonifacio/Izturis

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Old
11-27-2012, 08:33 PM
  #753
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Quote:
Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
if cabrera shows more power say 20+ homers.... i kind of like this:

reyes
bonifacio
cabrera
bautista
encarnacion
lind
lawrie
arencebia
rasmus
Cabrera won't hit anywhere near that many homers... he only had 11 last year while on roids.

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Old
11-27-2012, 08:38 PM
  #754
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohio Jones View Post
Edit: Gose will get another look-see next September. Imagine having him, Davis, Bonifacio and Reyes all available - that's just obscene team speed.


Quote:
Originally Posted by TieClark View Post
162 divides into 32.4 so really only the 5th starter would be out a start if all 5 starters remained healthy all year. Add in inevitable injuries and what not and it really doesn't matter in the long run.
Hmm, no.

33+33+32+32+32=162. Therefore, ignoring all other factors, if you went consistently through the rotation all season, 3, 4 and 5 would all be out one start vs 1 and 2.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TieClark View Post
Johnson when on is one of the best pitchers in the league... like absolutely dominant stuff. Beurhle is an innings eater but he isn't better than Johnson, Morrow or 2 years ago Romero.
Again, IMO, "better" is a relative term. You view power and dominating stuff to be "better". I prefer consistency and durability. I'm not saying you're wrong, but just that, personally, I prefer a consistent inning eater over a power guy at the front of the rotation (though I'd obviously take a consistent power guy over a consistent finesse guy every time).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyedea View Post
There's nothing to suggest that RR is equal to JJ, especially through '09-'11.
For the record, I ignored Johnson's 9-start 2011 season.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyedea View Post
For his career, JJ averages a whole (entire) earned run below Romero
Regardless of how little weight I give ERA in the first place, the large reason for that difference is Romero's grotesque 5.77 ERA from last year. Cut that out and Romero's 3.60 ERA is still a significant 0.43 lower than Johnson's ERA from his 5 full seasons (2006, 2008-2010, 2012), and 0.45 lower than Johnson's career ERA.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyedea View Post
We're talking about a guy that was a concensus top 10 pitcher prior to his 2011 injury. His 2012 season was below par for his standards, so look for a breakout from him with the Jays.
I don't doubt that you're probably right, but I'd still put my money on the sure thing rather than the potential to be better than sure thing. Just my opinion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by weems View Post
Besides the fact that anyone that follows baseball closely or has watched the two guys pitch would agree Johnson is the better pitcher here is the two players respective WAR over the past 4 seasons.

-Josh Johnson 17.5 WAR (which ranks 12th overall amongst all MLB pitchers in that time period)

-Mark Buerhle 12.9 WAR (which ranks 28th overall amongst all MLB pitchers in that time period).

Josh Johnson is the better pitcher and has been the past 4 years or so and when you look deeper into the numbers besides just ERA and WHIP you'll see this.
I prefer the standardized and easier to quantify WHIP stat to consider who is a better pitcher than the WAR stat.

To demonstrate, according to Baseball-Reference.com, Johnson's WAR from the last 4 seasons is 19.1, while Buehrle's is 15.3, a difference of 3.8, where your numbers are a difference of 4.6. I'm not sure how that changes for a league-wide system, as they don't rank by stats for a period of time, but I'm sure there's some decent movement up or down for both.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
new FA strategy: see a guy you want the Jays to sign? Have his last name legally changed to Izturis. I can see it now.

Gibbons: "So Alex, there's a pitcher out there I really like and think we should sign."

Anthopoulos: "What's his name?"

Gibbons: "Brandon McCarthy."

Anthopoulos: "Meh. Pass."

Gibbons: "Oh...Ok. Well. There's this other guy I think has a lot of potntial for our rotation. His name is Brandon...uhhh, Izturis."

Anthopoulous: "So then why does this game footage of him show the back of his jersey with "McCarthy" on it?"

Gibbons: "Its' a spelling error."

Anthopoulos: "Oh, ok! Sign him up!"


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Old
11-27-2012, 08:53 PM
  #755
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Funk Volume View Post
#3 hitter is always your best hitter. Our best hitter is Jose Bautista. EE most likely slots in 4th. Bonifacio doesn't have the avg to be a top third guy.

Reyes
Cabrera
Bautista
EE
Lind
Lawrie
Rasmus
Arencibia
Bonifacio/Izturis
Bautista is the more proven hitter obviously, but if Cabrera has a .320 +this season with 25-30 home runs that might be more valuable than .250 with 40 home runs. But yes, Bautista IS our best hitter and will be batting #3. Oh and i'm not saying Melky will do that btw but he has potential.

disagree with Bonifacio, his OBP was ridiculous 2 seasons ago. Both Melky and Bonifacio are unpredictable though

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Old
11-27-2012, 08:58 PM
  #756
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
new FA strategy: see a guy you want the Jays to sign? Have his last name legally changed to Izturis. I can see it now.

Gibbons: "So Alex, there's a pitcher out there I really like and think we should sign."

Anthopoulos: "What's his name?"

Gibbons: "Brandon McCarthy."

Anthopoulos: "Meh. Pass."

Gibbons: "Oh...Ok. Well. There's this other guy I think has a lot of potntial for our rotation. His name is Brandon...uhhh, Izturis."

Anthopoulous: "So then why does this game footage of him show the back of his jersey with "McCarthy" on it?"

Gibbons: "Its' a spelling error."

Anthopoulos: "Oh, ok! Sign him up!"



Read the following in Buck Martinez's voice:

Izturis makes the grab in shallow left. Flips it to Izturis, who pivots and fires it to Izturis ...and they turn the double play.

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Old
11-27-2012, 08:58 PM
  #757
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafsdude7 View Post




Hmm, no.

33+33+32+32+32=162. Therefore, ignoring all other factors, if you went consistently through the rotation all season, 3, 4 and 5 would all be out one start vs 1 and 2.



Again, IMO, "better" is a relative term. You view power and dominating stuff to be "better". I prefer consistency and durability. I'm not saying you're wrong, but just that, personally, I prefer a consistent inning eater over a power guy at the front of the rotation (though I'd obviously take a consistent power guy over a consistent finesse guy every time).



For the record, I ignored Johnson's 9-start 2011 season.



Regardless of how little weight I give ERA in the first place, the large reason for that difference is Romero's grotesque 5.77 ERA from last year. Cut that out and Romero's 3.60 ERA is still a significant 0.43 lower than Johnson's ERA from his 5 full seasons (2006, 2008-2010, 2012), and 0.45 lower than Johnson's career ERA.



I don't doubt that you're probably right, but I'd still put my money on the sure thing rather than the potential to be better than sure thing. Just my opinion.



I prefer the standardized and easier to quantify WHIP stat to consider who is a better pitcher than the WAR stat.

To demonstrate, according to Baseball-Reference.com, Johnson's WAR from the last 4 seasons is 19.1, while Buehrle's is 15.3, a difference of 3.8, where your numbers are a difference of 4.6. I'm not sure how that changes for a league-wide system, as they don't rank by stats for a period of time, but I'm sure there's some decent movement up or down for both.



Useing WHIP to determine who is the better pitcher is extremely flawed. Last season Ervin Santana had a better WHIP then YU Darvish.....Does that mean that Ervin Santana was the better pitcher of the 2 last season?

Let's say your numbers are accurate and over the past 4 seasons they have been divided by 3.8, thats basically the difference between someone like Felix Hernandez and Jon Lester. Thats the difference between someone like David Price and Mark Buerhle. Regardless of how significant you think 4 war over 4 years is, Johnson has put up the better statistical stretch during that period even if hes been more inconsistant.

Josh Johnson is the better pitcher.

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Old
11-27-2012, 09:02 PM
  #758
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Funk Volume View Post
#3 hitter is always your best hitter. Our best hitter is Jose Bautista. EE most likely slots in 4th. Bonifacio doesn't have the avg to be a top third guy.

Reyes
Cabrera
Bautista
EE
Lind
Lawrie

Rasmus
Arencibia
Bonifacio/Izturis
Here's something I don't get. From everything I've see from Lawrie, from his ability to hit with power and for average, his relatively low strikeout total, speed and low GIDP, and his overall work rate, suggests he'd be a prototypical 5th slot guy, definitely ahead of guys like Rasmus (high strikeout/low average) and Lind.

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Old
11-27-2012, 09:02 PM
  #759
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozak View Post
Bautista is the more proven hitter obviously, but if Cabrera has a .320 +this season with 25-30 home runs that might be more valuable than .250 with 40 home runs. But yes, Bautista IS our best hitter and will be batting #3. Oh and i'm not saying Melky will do that btw but he has potential.

disagree with Bonifacio, his OBP was ridiculous 2 seasons ago. Both Melky and Bonifacio are unpredictable though
Some people really need to limit their expectations for Melky... the guy was caught taking roids. He isn't going to hit .320+ and he isn't going to hit 20+ homers.

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Old
11-27-2012, 09:07 PM
  #760
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if cabrera hits .320 with 20+ homers he could bat 3rd easy
if bonifacio is hitting for avg with his speed he could bat 2nd

we shall see if the testosterone made those stats for milky

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Old
11-27-2012, 09:08 PM
  #761
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafsdude7 View Post
Here's something I don't get. From everything I've see from Lawrie, from his ability to hit with power and for average, his relatively low strikeout total, speed and low GIDP, and his overall work rate, suggests he'd be a prototypical 5th slot guy, definitely ahead of guys like Rasmus (high strikeout/low average) and Lind.
I agree that Lawrie is the better hitter, I merely had it like that so we didn't have 3 righties in a row.

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Old
11-27-2012, 09:08 PM
  #762
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Quote:
Originally Posted by charliolemieux View Post


Read the following in Buck Martinez's voice:

Izturis makes the grab in shallow left. Flips it to Izturis, who pivots and fires it to Izturis ...and they turn the double play.
Knowing Buck he'd still get one of the names wrong lol

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Old
11-27-2012, 09:15 PM
  #763
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Quote:
Originally Posted by weems View Post
Useing WHIP to determine who is the better pitcher is extremely flawed. Last season Ervin Santana had a better WHIP then YU Darvish.....Does that mean that Ervin Santana was the better pitcher of the 2 last season?
Using single seasons to decide who is a better pitcher using any stat is always going to be flawed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by weems View Post
Let's say your numbers are accurate and over the past 4 seasons they have been divided by 3.8
Wait, what?

Quote:
Originally Posted by weems View Post
thats basically the difference between someone like Felix Hernandez and Jon Lester.
The difference in WAR, according to baseball-reference.com, between Johnson and Buehrle over the last 4 years (3.8) is not the same difference between Lester and Hernandez (+5.1 for Hernandez).

Quote:
Originally Posted by weems View Post
Thats the difference between someone like David Price and Mark Buerhle.
The difference in WAR, according to baseball-reference.com, between Johnson and Buehrle over the last 4 years (3.8) is not the same as the difference between Price and Buehrle (+1.4 for Buehrle).

Quote:
Originally Posted by weems View Post
Regardless of how significant you think 4 war over 4 years is, Johnson has put up the better statistical stretch during that period even if hes been more inconsistant.
My argument isn't about the significance of the numbers, it's about the stat itself, and it's complete lack of standardization in the world of baseball. No two sources (before you take that literally, that's hyperbole...) will agree on the best way to calculate WAR.

Quote:
Originally Posted by weems View Post
Josh Johnson is the better pitcher.
You have yet to adequately convince me of that.

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Old
11-27-2012, 09:18 PM
  #764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
if cabrera hits .320 with 20+ homers he could bat 3rd easy
if bonifacio is hitting for avg with his speed he could bat 2nd

we shall see if the testosterone made those stats for milky
The fact that he's never before in his entire career had numbers anywhere near the ones he had on roids should answer your question.

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11-27-2012, 09:23 PM
  #765
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Funk Volume View Post
I agree that Lawrie is the better hitter, I merely had it like that so we didn't have 3 righties in a row.
Bautista and Encarnacion, from the past 3 seasons, are about equally as good against RHP as LHP. Lawrie was pretty good in his short stint in 2011 against RHP, though he did fair much worse last year. Still, I think you can afford to have three RHB in a row in that section of the lineup when you consider the difference in relevant numbers between Lawrie and the other contenders (Lind and Rasmus particularly).

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11-27-2012, 09:25 PM
  #766
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafsdude7 View Post
Using single seasons to decide who is a better pitcher using any stat is always going to be flawed.



Wait, what?



The difference in WAR, according to baseball-reference.com, between Johnson and Buehrle over the last 4 years (3.8) is not the same difference between Lester and Hernandez (+5.1 for Hernandez).



The difference in WAR, according to baseball-reference.com, between Johnson and Buehrle over the last 4 years (3.8) is not the same as the difference between Price and Buehrle (+1.4 for Buehrle).



My argument isn't about the significance of the numbers, it's about the stat itself, and it's complete lack of standardization in the world of baseball. No two sources (before you take that literally, that's hyperbole...) will agree on the best way to calculate WAR.



You have yet to adequately convince me of that.
This is all pretty simple.
Johnson is the better pitcher according to advanced stats. Even if we look at the more basic standardized stats like ERA, WHIP etc Johnson is the better pitcher.

Josh Johnson career stats
3.15 ERA
1.23 WHIP
.242 OPP BA


Mark Buerhle career stats
3.82 ERA
1.27 WHIP
.272 OPP BA

So I've shown you that Johnson is better according to a stat like WAR and hes also better when you look at stats like the more "standardized" stats. What is so hard to understand at this point?

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Old
11-27-2012, 09:27 PM
  #767
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozak View Post
Bautista is the more proven hitter obviously, but if Cabrera has a .320 +this season with 25-30 home runs that might be more valuable than .250 with 40 home runs. But yes, Bautista IS our best hitter and will be batting #3. Oh and i'm not saying Melky will do that btw but he has potential.
Quote:
Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
if cabrera hits .320 with 20+ homers he could bat 3rd easy
if bonifacio is hitting for avg with his speed he could bat 2nd

we shall see if the testosterone made those stats for milky
What in Cabrera's career leads you guys to believe he can hit 20+ HRs? His career highs are 18, 13, 11...Bautista and EE are not the norm, it is very unlikely to have a guy find a sudden power stroke this far into his career, nevermind 3 lol. Not trying to be a dick, but his career norms, even if you take his last couple seasons, shows that the 15 range is the more reasonable expectation.

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Old
11-27-2012, 09:29 PM
  #768
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozak View Post
Bautista is the more proven hitter obviously, but if Cabrera has a .320 +this season with 25-30 home runs that might be more valuable than .250 with 40 home runs. But yes, Bautista IS our best hitter and will be batting #3. Oh and i'm not saying Melky will do that btw but he has potential.

disagree with Bonifacio, his OBP was ridiculous 2 seasons ago. Both Melky and Bonifacio are unpredictable though
No way Melky hits that many HR. He has only hit half that many HR once in his career. He has no realistic potential to do it.

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11-27-2012, 09:33 PM
  #769
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Quote:
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No way Melky hits that many HR. He has only hit half that many HR once in his career. He has no realistic potential to do it.
I think we can expect 20+ from Arencibia, Lind, and Rasmus. 30+ from Bautista and Edwin.

Lawrie has the potential to hit 20, but he's iffy.

Reyes, Cabrera and Bonifacio will be lucky to hit 20 combined.

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Old
11-27-2012, 09:39 PM
  #770
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Funk Volume View Post
#3 hitter is always your best hitter.
Which is weird because some of the best hitters in the league bat cleanup.

Posey
Hamilton
Votto
Konerko
Ortiz
Tulowitzki
Longoria
Fielder (granted, he's behind Miggy)
Butler (offensively, better than Hosmer/Gordon)
Gonzalez (behind Kemp, but still solid nonetheless)
Cano (though I think he's in the 3 spot now)

Also I'm not sure if it has been mentioned before, but Rotochamp projected the lineup.
http://rotochamp.com/baseball/TeamPage.aspx?Team=TOR
Quote:
Lineup Player POS Team AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG FVal
1 Jose Reyes SS TOR 555 91 9 58 34 0.303 0.361 0.450 $19
2 Melky Cabrera OF TOR 545 84 13 72 15 0.310 0.358 0.470 $15
3 Jose Bautista OF TOR 505 106 40 99 8 0.281 0.409 0.568 $33
4 Edwin Encarnacion DH TOR 515 96 33 100 9 0.293 0.386 0.536 $30
5 Brett Lawrie 3B TOR 535 79 17 84 19 0.295 0.351 0.460 $16
6 Colby Rasmus OF TOR 500 65 20 68 5 0.248 0.319 0.430 $-3
7 Adam Lind 1B TOR 425 56 18 61 0 0.268 0.325 0.449 $-6
8 J.P. Arencibia Catcher TOR 425 52 23 60 1 0.240 0.292 0.452 $-4
9 Emilio Bonifacio 2B TOR 490 60 3 54 42 0.280 0.349 0.355 $3


Starter Player POS Team IP W L ERA WHIP K BB FVal
1 Josh Johnson SP TOR 175 13 8 3.34 1.22 156 57 $11
2 Mark Buehrle SP TOR 205 13 10 3.82 1.23 118 43 $2
3 Brandon Morrow SP TOR 185 11 10 4.23 1.22 184 68 $4
4 Ricky Romero SP TOR 210 11 12 4.54 1.47 155 103 $-12
5 J.A. Happ SP TOR 170 10 9 4.24 1.44 158 74 $-5

Player POS Team IP W L Saves ERA WHIP K BB FVal
Sergio Santos RP TOR 60 3 3 25 3.45 1.32 78 31 $4
Steve Delabar RP TOR 60 3 3 3 3.15 1.10 83 24 $1
Casey Janssen RP TOR 60 3 3 3 3.00 1.02 60 13 $0
Darren Oliver RP TOR 55 2 2 1 3.27 1.07 51 14 $-2
Brad Lincoln SP TOR 60 3 3 0 3.75 1.27 54 17 $-5
Aaron Loup RP TOR 45 2 2 1 3.80 1.27 31 16 $-7
Esmil Rogers SP TOR 75 3 3 0 4.44 1.59 72 32 $-11
Brett Cecil SP TOR 85 4 4 0 4.66 1.42 64 30 $-11
Drew Hutchison SP TOR 20 0 0 0 4.05 1.35 17 7 $-10
Kyle Drabek SP TOR 25 1 1 0 5.04 1.68 16 17 $-12

Player POS Team AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG FVal
Maicer Izturis 2B TOR 295 35 3 33 12 0.278 0.341 0.363 $-20
Rajai Davis OF TOR 270 38 4 24 28 0.270 0.318 0.385 $-17
John Buck Catcher TOR 250 33 9 31 0 0.232 0.324 0.388 $-23
David Cooper 1B TOR 160 20 5 24 0 0.300 0.333 0.475 $-30
Anthony Gose OF TOR 120 13 1 12 12 0.233 0.313 0.333 $-36
*May include/exclude guys not on 25-man roster.


Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkeyeCB View Post
I think we can expect 20+ from Arencibia, Lind, and Rasmus. 30+ from Bautista and Edwin.

Lawrie has the potential to hit 20, but he's iffy.

Reyes, Cabrera and Bonifacio will be lucky to hit 20 combined.
Reyes surprisingly has quite a bit of power. I would not be surprised if he hit 15 home runs.

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11-27-2012, 09:41 PM
  #771
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Fun with video games: I just simmed the 2012 season in OOTP13 with the Jays' current roster. They won 98 games, 8 games ahead of the second place Red Sox, swept the Angels in the ALDS, took the ALCS in 7 games from the Rangers, but then lost the WS in 6 games to the Brewers (Gallardo had a ridiculous season).

Iron man Buerhle tore his labrum 1 month into the season
Melky cratered into a sub .700 OPS player
Reyes stole 30 bases but was caught 17 times
JJ had an unspectacular season but was money in the playoffs
Lawrie had an MVP calibre season
Bautista hit 52 homers
EE hit 14

Pretty useless exercise, but it was fun.

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11-27-2012, 09:44 PM
  #772
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Originally Posted by Leafsdude7 View Post
You have yet to adequately convince me of that.
Last 3 full seasons for each:

Buerhle
Year | ERA+ | FIP | xFIP | K/BB | LOB% | BABIP | FB velo variance from career norm
2010 | 100 | 3.90 | 4.49 | 2.02 | 70.2 | .313 | +0.2 |
2011 | 121 | 3.98 | 4.14 | 2.42 | 73.3 | .294 | -0.9 |
2012 | 106 | 4.18 | 4.17 | 3.13 | 74.8 | .270 | -1.0 |
CAREER | 119 | 4.14 | 4.22 | 2.52 | 72.5 | 2.89 | 85.9 |

Johnson
Year | ERA+ | FIP | xFIP | K/BB | LOB% | BABIP | FB velo variance from career norm
2009 | 133 | 3.06 | 3.36 | 3.29 | 74.9 | .290 | +0.9 |
2010 | 180 | 2.41 | 3.32 | 3.88 | 79.2 | .297 | +0.7 |
2012 | 104 | 3.40 | 3.73 | 2.54 | 71.9 | .302 | -1.2 |
CAREER | 133 | 3.20 | 3.57 | 2.70 | 75.4 | .297 | 94.0 |

So yeah, based on some of the more telling indicators, besides the eye test and without going too deep into advanced stats, Johnson is a better pitcher than Buerhle. This doesn't take anything away from Buerhle, who's been a solid 2-3 guy the past few years, and is definitely the more durable/consistent of the 2, but JJ is still the better pitcher.

The drop in Johnson's velo is also less concerning considering he had mechanic issues that could have caused the drop, whereas Buerhle is more likely to continue dropping.

Edit: Also added ERA+ which regulates at 100 for average pitchers...


Last edited by Silver91: 11-27-2012 at 10:02 PM. Reason: added career totals + ERA+
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11-27-2012, 09:55 PM
  #773
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Quote:
Originally Posted by weems View Post
This is all pretty simple.
Johnson is the better pitcher according to advanced stats. Even if we look at the more basic standardized stats like ERA, WHIP etc Johnson is the better pitcher.

Josh Johnson career stats
3.15 ERA
1.23 WHIP
.242 OPP BA


Mark Buerhle career stats
3.82 ERA
1.27 WHIP
.272 OPP BA
As I said earlier, I don't put much credence to ERA as there's many factors that make it hard to compare two pitchers by that. The WHIP difference between the two is insignificant, and more impressive for Buehrle over a 13 year career than Johnson's 5 full years and 3 years of under 70 IP.

I'll give you Op Avg (though I'm more interested in Buehrle's .733 vs Johnson's .655 OPS), but I'm still not convinced that alone makes Johnson the "better pitcher". I'd still rather have the consistent Buehrle over the somewhat enigmatic Johnson as my opening day starter.

Quote:
Originally Posted by weems View Post
So I've shown you that Johnson is better according to a stat like WAR
Except you haven't, since I can produce WAR stats that differ from yours. What use is a stat that no one can even agree how to calculate?

Quote:
Originally Posted by weems View Post
and hes also better when you look at stats like the more "standardized" stats. What is so hard to understand at this point?
Johnson is better at ERA, which can differ based on larger ballparks and different opponents, and Op OPS/Op Avg, which goes with being a power pitcher. I'm still more interested in having Buehrle's consistency and experience on opening day.

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11-27-2012, 10:06 PM
  #774
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quik View Post
Last 3 full seasons for each:

Buerhle
Year | FIP | xFIP | K/BB | LOB% | BABIP | FB velo variance from career norm
2010 | 3.90 | 4.49 | 2.02 | 70.2 | .313 | +0.2 |
2011 | 3.98 | 4.14 | 2.42 | 73.3 | .294 | -0.9 |
2012 | 4.18 | 4.17 | 3.13 | 74.8 | .270 | -1.0 |
CAREER | 4.14 | 4.22 | 2.52 | 72.5 | 2.89 | 85.9 |

Johnson
Year | FIP | xFIP | K/BB | LOB% | BABIP | FB velo variance from career norm
2009 | 3.06 | 3.36 | 3.29 | 74.9 | .290 | +0.9 |
2010 | 2.41 | 3.32 | 3.88 | 79.2 | .297 | +0.7 |
2012 | 3.40 | 3.73 | 2.54 | 71.9 | .302 | -1.2 |
CAREER | 3.20 | 3.57 | 2.70 | 75.4 | .297 | 94.0 |

So yeah, based on some of the more telling indicators, besides the eye test and without going too deep into advanced stats, Johnson is a better pitcher than Buerhle. This doesn't take anything away from Buerhle, who's been a solid 2-3 guy the past few years, and is definitely the more durable/consistent of the 2, but JJ is still the better pitcher.

The drop in Johnson's velo is also less concerning considering he had mechanic issues that could have caused the drop, whereas Buerhle is more likely to continue dropping.
Considering that Buehrle has always been a finesse pitcher and even in his best years had a fastball that peaked at about 92 and averaged around 86, I fail to see how having his fastball slow down is that relevant, especially since 2010 was easily the worst year he had out of the 3 you listed.

Of course, when it comes down to it, it's simply that my definition of "better" (where a better pitcher to me means more experience and consistency, not necessarily the quality of their stuff and short term numbers) is different than weems and yours.

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11-27-2012, 10:12 PM
  #775
Silver91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafsdude7 View Post
Considering that Buehrle has always been a finesse pitcher and even in his best years had a fastball that peaked at about 92 and averaged around 86, I fail to see how having his fastball slow down is that relevant, especially since 2010 was easily the worst year he had out of the 3 you listed.
I think you're missing the point here. Yes, his velo dropping isn't the end of the world, that's not the crux of my post. I gave you proof that JJ is the better pitcher, Buerhle's dropping velocity is only part of the thesis, if you want to call it that. Both are good pitchers, JJ is better.

If you go back to my post, I even added ERA+ and career stats to show it...If you still want to refute it, that's your prerogative, but if you're basing your opinion solely off stats (as you've said you are), ignoring stats makes no sense.

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