C/RW Burmistrov; 1st Round, 2010 (I promise this is the last thread)
First: I know, I know... I said I wouldn't be doing this for a while and that I wouldn't be around much... But this felt like this is one last thing I have to finish (even if there are a bunch of more work/school related projects that are needing to be finished).
Second: mods, I thought it be best to make a Burmistrov centred thread since he seems to be popping up the Prospects, IceCaps, and Locked-Out Jets threads. Consolidation ... if you disagree, I won't be hurt if one of you send it away.
Third: little off topic, but I want to say first and up front a huge thank you to Gump Hasek, Sipowicz, and others. Even when we don't agree, I completely respect and appreciate your opinions. I hope you do reply to this thread and give yours even if it is different. I would never visit here if we were all clones that thought the same. Could you imagine a forum of all Garrets and Grinds (and a Sully running around saying we're all the same person)? I'd want to stab my eyes out from reading all the garbage (sorry Grind).
Buuuuut, now to the bulk. Honestly, I'm a little biased; I like Burmistrov. I'll try to keep it objective and even plae other opinions but true objectivity won't happen sorry. (I will add links to my facts later)
First, let's take a look at Burmistrov's progress in both boxcar stats and advance stats. We all know he was rushed as Thrashers were hoping to sell tickets with their draft picks and young stars. Boxcar Stats
Year
Team
GP
G
A
PTS
G/GP
A/GP
PTS/GP
2010
Thrashers
74
6
14
20
0.081
0.189
0.270
2011
Jets
76
13
15
28
0.171
0.197
0.368
Delta
2.7%
116.7%
7.1%
40.0%
111.0%
4.3%
36.3%
Advance Stats
Year
Team
GP
TOI/60
RelQoC
OZS%
CorsiRel
G/60
A1/60
2010
Thrashers
74
11.51
-0.339
49.9
-2.8
0.42
0.35
2011
Jets
76
13.20
-0.097
52.4
7.24
0.6
0.42
Delta
2.7%
14.7%
71.4%
5.0%
358.6%
42.9%
20.0%
All Advanced Stats are for 5v5 only and from behindthenet. By every measurement Burmistrov improved, and impressively, while facing much tougher minutes, becoming a competent NHL player in his sophomore year while his fellow draft classmate Telegin was playing in Barrie.
Random fact: Kane's G/60 went down his sophomore year by 20.8%, showing how progression is never linear.
Now the happy stuff is over let's go to the not-so-happy stuff. First, I was the one that predicted Burmistrov's point total to be around 62, but that was without taking in account the added competition. I was able to track down an equivalency from nhlnumbers that is to take account the added QoC, but this is only from a one year sampling (last lockout) so take it in with a grain of salt. NHL/AHL Equivalencies
Type
Team
GP
G
A
PTS
G/GP
A/GP
PTS/GP
oldEstimate
IceCaps
76
29
33
62
0.380
0.439
0.819
newEstimate
IceCaps
76
24
27
51
0.311
0.359
0.670
Well ok so 62 was a bit of an over-estimate... but still Burmistrov isn't doing even as well as on track for 51:
Year
Team
GP
G
A
PTS
G/GP
A/GP
PTS/GP
2012
IceCaps
19
2
7
9
0.105
0.368
0.474
2012proj
IceCaps
76
8
28
36
0.105
0.368
0.474
Honestly, if this is sustained, I do understand being worried, albeit I still wouldn't think of it as the end of the world. Well how sustainable is it? Burmistrov has always been a set up man first, so we'll also look at Burmistrov's most common linemates. At first Burmi was playing with Maxwell and a rotating cast on LW of King, Tremblay, Whitmore and Gagnon. Lately Burmistrov has been playing with Jaffray and a mix of Maxwell and the same cast as before. All of these players are the guys who haven't been doing as well as they normally do. Let's see by how much:
Name
GP
G
A
PTS
SOG
SH%
careerSH%
normalG
Burmistrov
19
2
7
9
46
0.043
0.088
4
Maxwell
19
1
6
7
48
0.021
0.093
4
Jaffray
13
2
6
8
22
0.091
0.139
3
Tremblay
13
1
5
6
16
0.063
0.140
2
King
9
1
3
4
12
0.083
0.161
2
Whitmore
7
1
2
3
21
0.048
0.132
3
Gagnon
11
0
0
0
17
0.000
0.135
2
That just shows you that it's not just Burmistrov's bad luck pulling him down, but his linemates too. Most likely, but not for sure, will equal out. Heck Burmistrov is tied for the most goals both with the true results and the normalized sh% results... and he's not supposed to be the goalscorer for that group... So, if you want to look at the glass half full, I guess you can say he is doing well relative to his peers and will likely do even better as the year goes on. If anyone cares, that normalized sh% still puts him 1 goal short of my equivalency hypothesized goals, but he's actually right on track for assists at his currently rate... so if he had 5g7a he'd be on track, but since he's 2g7a he's a worry?
Random notes:
Bolting for the KHL is a legitimate concern and one you may always have to have with Russians. Even Malkin and Ovechkin are making threats lately. TSN did do a short on Burmistrov and the KHL believe it or not.
About Burmistrov's physicality he did have some moments with Chara and Girardi. Now these hits are nothing to be to crazy gushing over, but if he does end up filling out his frame, that nose for grit with his skill could be quite nice.
Random quotes on Burmistrov:
Hockey Prospectus Top 50 Under 23 in NHL:
Quote:
Burmistrov is a gifted player who can be a lot of fun to watch when he's on. He is very good with the puck, has high-end hockey sense, and skates well. Usually with players who have the tools, and are as young as Burmistrov, while the production has not yet come, it is a combination of their physical game/getting stronger and playing up to pace that are to blame. Those things tend to come with experience and gym work. Burmistrov has been solid at even-strength, and though he hasn't broken out yet, I see him as a pretty quality player in his prime.
Rob Volman's Player Projections:
Quote:
Young Alexander Burmistrov got a slightly tougher assignment last year, including more penalty-killing time, and slightly more offensive opportunities, including a little more time with the man advantage... there was one particularly promising match: Ryan O'Reilly. Not only did their OHL scoring levels match, but their first two seasons did as well.
NHL Numbers Burmistrov Profile:
Quote:
What are Burmistrov's strongest traits?
His puck skills and hockey sense stand out. He's the kind of player who always makes plays with the puck, and his skills shine through consistently. There's also the fact that he's a very quality skater, too.
Conversely, what do you see as his biggest weakness - i.e. what he needs to shore up, before he breaks out?
With kids who have all the tools and it just doesn't click, it's usually a combination of handling the NHL's physicality and pace. Both require experience, but the former requires continuous effort to get stronger. Burmistrov was a little bit of a 'string bean' during his first North American years.
If it could be done all over again, would you have liked to see his progress up the ranks staggered a bit more? Was he rushed to the NHL?
Being drafted out of the OHL, it was either NHL or OHL for his first season. I wasn't all that crazy about him being kept up in 2010-11, although this past year, I think he did fine in the NHL.
I wrote most of this on the weekend but wasn't able to send it out.
I just finished ranting about Burmi in the St. J and Prospect Threads.
I said this:
Quote:
I am still on the Burmi band wagon.
He is already an elite defensive players and he scored at a similar rate to Little last year. Considering his age and how little many of his 2010 draft year peers have done, it isn't time to panic.
As for his numbers...
Many of you guys give me crap saying that numbers aren't everything and they surely aren't here. The Ice Caps whole top line has had the same kind of crummy puck luck that hit Wheeler last year.
Burmi, Maxwell & Machacek have combined for 133 SOG. That should equate to somewhere around 15 goals and a ton of assists (based on league averages and on these guy's historic production), but only have 6 goals to show for it.
That cannot and will not continue over an extended period.
His size...
Burmi definitely can use a little mass. He is very strong on his skates, but he is tiny and apparently his ribs are plainly visible. Not sure what he can do to add mass, but more weight wouldn't hurt.
...and this
Quote:
Everyone needs to take a breath...
Burmi right now is where Blake Wheeler was after 17 games last year.
Admittedly, he isn't scoring, but he is putting the puck on net and making plays in both ends the points will come. Trust me.
I posted this elsewhere, but I will continue to post it everywhere until I am right. Burmi, Maxwell & Machacek have combined for 133 SOG, but only have 6 goals to show for it. That cannot and will not continue much longer.
As for the Scheifele / Burmi comparison...
I am not sure where either of them will top out.
Sheifele vs Burmi:
Burmi
Based on what I've seen, I am very comfortable saying Burmi will top out a little higher than Bryan Little. They currently score at similar rates (Little got way more TOI), plus Burmi carries slightly better defensive value, not that Little is a slouch. If Burmi can add some mass and grow as an offensive player, I could see him being an OK number 1C or a very solid #2 capable of tough minutes. Then again, I am not 100% sold on him as a centre. #1 or #2RW may be in the cards for him as well.
Scheifele
Scheifele on the other hand has shown plus plus offensive awareness, but I think he has a lot more to prove. We don't know how his defensive game will carry forward or how he will handle the speed of the NHL, but I did think he looked good as a possession player in his short NHL stint last year (and everywhere else).
Scheif has long been able to use his size against OHLers, that hasn't carried over yet either, of course it may down the line. Scheif appears to be a nice PP option possibly on the top unit, this is something I haven't seen from Burmi to date. I don't know that Scheif will ever be an elite 1st line centre, but he has the look of an OK #1 or very good #2.
I like both players, but the more I see from Scheifele, the more I like him.
If forced to pick one as our future #1C, I'd probably lean toward Scheifele, but Burmi is already a darn good and very valuable player. Burmi could / should be a very nice option on the 2nd line down the road and I still think he has 1st line upside. Burmi's plus plus defensive value shouldn't be overlooked.
Ultimately, I am glad we have both these kids. They have different tools, but their abilities nicely compliment each other. I hope they both continue to develop and one of the (either one) turns into a bonified #1C. We need one of them to step up.
I think it makes sense to add those thoughts here if we wanna get away from it in those threads.
Burmistrov is an interesting case. I am honestly not 100% sold that his being in the OHL two years ago and the AHL last season would have made any kind of difference in terms of his long term development. I am not sure what kind of offensive upside he has. His natural skill level is obvious to watch, but whether that will translate to results is pretty much impossible to know right now. His puck skills are definitely an asset but I am just not sure if that will translate to being a star forward. Where he falls long term is very much up in the air. We'll see what happens, it is too early to give up on him, but I am not sold that he will be the Datsyuk part 2 he was billed to be.
What is great about him though is his versatility. He can play all 3 forward positions, and should be able to contribute in a variety of roles, from potentially an offensive presences, to a puck control 3rd liner that can fill in on the PP and the top 6 as needed. Even if his top end potential never comes to pass he should be able to have a successful career.
__________________
2012 STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS LA KINGS!!! GO JETS GO!
Truck and Garret these are helpful posts and its always good to work through the numbers. I am still on the Burmi bandwagon as well.
Poor puck luck happens. Hockey is a funny game that way. Maybe some of it is self imposed, but some of it is just bad luck.
We all remember what happened to Wheeler last year and I was preaching patience with him too.
Wheeler had 0 goals and 7 assists through 18 games. His shooting % was zero despite putting 42 shots on net.
The fact that Bryan Little started the season with 15 goaless games (and 2 goals in the first 19 games) didn't help his assist numbers either. Wheeler had .39 A / game through the first 18 games, he had .65 assists per game the rest of the way, .58 A / game over the whole season.
Wheeler finished the year with 17 goals, 47 assists for 64 points.
His shooting % flipped to 10.2% the rest of the year and finished the season at 8.2% (a career low).
It also happened to Eric Staal. Staal had 5 goals, 9 assists, 14 points and was -17 through 28 games last year, this was despite putting 95 shots on net (5% shooting).
He still managed to finish with 24G, 46A for 70P in 82 games. Staal scored 19 goals on his next 167 shots (shooting % of 11.3%). His season end shooting % was 9.2% which was still a career low, but it rebounded.
The bad luck will come to an end. Well, unless your name is Eric Fehr or Scott Gomez.
Burmistrov is an interesting case. I am honestly not 100% sold that his being in the OHL two years ago and the AHL last season would have made any kind of difference in terms of his long term development. I am not sure what kind of offensive upside he has. His natural skill level is obvious to watch, but whether that will translate to results is pretty much impossible to know right now. His puck skills are definitely an asset but I am just not sure if that will translate to being a star forward. Where he falls long term is very much up in the air. We'll see what happens, it is too early to give up on him, but I am not sold that he will be the Datsyuk part 2 he was billed to be.
What is great about him though is his versatility. He can play all 3 forward positions, and should be able to contribute in a variety of roles, from potentially an offensive presences, to a puck control 3rd liner that can fill in on the PP and the top 6 as needed. Even if his top end potential never comes to pass he should be able to have a successful career.
I agree. I am a little more comfortable with him offensively though.
Quote:
I am not sold that he will be the Datsyuk part 2 he was billed to be.
Those comparisons were never fair, especially given his age. Datsyuk is one of the best players in the league and if he was so obviously Datsykian I think he would have gone earlier than #8. If I remember correctly, he wasn't even ranked as a top 10 domestic by Central Scouting.
Then again, Burmi was TINY when he played in Barrie. He was listed at 5'11, 157 lbs. and some suggested 157 lbs was a stretch. His current 6'0, 175 is actually a huge improvement. Can he put on another 15 to 20 lbs? Probably. He is still but a boy.
Only 11 players from Burmi's 2010 draft class have played more than 10 NHL games.
1) Taylor Hall
2) Tyler Seguin
3) Erik Gudbranson
4) Ryan Johansen
5) Nino Niederreiter
6) Brett Connoly
7) Jeff Skinner
8) Alexander Burmistrov
12) Cam Fowler
37) Justin Faulk
42) Devante Smith-Pelly
Of that crop, I'd put Burmi's rate of development behind that of:
Hall, Seguin, Skinner, Fowler and Faulk.
Players without NHL experience:
He's probably a little behind Granlund (picked 10th), and maybe Tarasenko (16th) / Kuznetsov (26th)
That makes 8 players that have obviously out done Burmi and leaves 202 of 210 players drafted that year lagging behind. That seems about right for an 8th overall pick.
Who else from that draft class would you trade Burmi for? Without thinking too hard, the only other player I might consider is Niederreiter.
I'm not stressed about his development at all. I was really excited that he was going to play with the caps and I totally thought he would light it up...but one thing that we do have to remember is that there is exactly one NHL regular on that team where as lots of others have several. The competition in the AHL is a lot stiffer then in years previous.
It could also be that Burmi is just a late bloomer. Wheeler didn't really break out till he was 24. That could very well be the case with Burmi.
Only 11 players from Burmi's 2010 draft class have played more than 10 NHL games.
1) Taylor Hall
2) Tyler Seguin
3) Erik Gudbranson
4) Ryan Johansen
5) Nino Niederreiter
6) Brett Connoly
7) Jeff Skinner
8) Alexander Burmistrov
12) Cam Fowler
37) Justin Faulk
42) Devante Smith-Pelly
Of that crop, I'd put Burmi's rate of development behind that of:
Hall, Seguin, Skinner, Fowler and Faulk.
Players without NHL experience:
He's probably a little behind Granlund (picked 10th), and maybe Tarasenko (16th) / Kuznetsov (26th)
That makes 8 players that have obviously out done Burmi and leaves 202 of 210 players drafted that year lagging behind. That seems about right for an 8th overall pick.
Who else from that draft class would you trade Burmi for? Without thinking too hard, the only other player I might consider is Niederreiter.
I'm assuming you mean who would you trade him for besides Hall, Seguin, Skinner, Fowler, Faulk, Granlund, Tarasenko, and Kuznetsov?
The only ones that I would even consider are Johansen, Gudbrandson, or Niederreiter.
Which is what I was trying to say in another thread. Going all chicken little about a 21 year old, who is doing better than 96% of his draft class seems more than a little short sighted.
I'm assuming you mean who would you trade him for besides Hall, Seguin, Skinner, Fowler, Faulk, Granlund, Tarasenko, and Kuznetsov?
The only ones that I would even consider are Johansen, Gudbrandson, or Niederreiter.
Which is what I was trying to say in another thread. Going all chicken little about a 21 year old, who is doing better than 96% of his draft class seems more than a little short sighted.
Very much agree with you, and even some of those listed haven't really proved to be any better then burmi (can't disappointing if they don't get a shot)
As i just found out in my study (now posted in the draft thread), we really shouldn't be too bummed even if burmi doesn't become any more then a third line defensive specialist. The odds are stacked against him. If anything we should be stoked that he has proved to be a defensively sound player and not a complete bust already.
I think we get a litte carried away about just how good our prospects "should" be.
I don't think you compare him to others from the draft class , you look at what he is doing , accomplishing and likely to develop into , at least imo.
Some have again imo unrealistic expectations on the player he is and will become. he is still young of course but nothing he has really done should lead anyone to expect he will be an offensive forcce , imo.
I'm assuming you mean who would you trade him for besides Hall, Seguin, Skinner, Fowler, Faulk, Granlund, Tarasenko, and Kuznetsov?
The only ones that I would even consider are Johansen, Gudbrandson, or Niederreiter.
Which is what I was trying to say in another thread. Going all chicken little about a 21 year old, who is doing better than 96% of his draft class seems more than a little short sighted.
I don't think you compare him to others from the draft class , you look at what he is doing , accomplishing and likely to develop into , at least imo.
Some have again imo unrealistic expectations on the player he is and will become. he is still young of course but nothing he has really done should lead anyone to expect he will be an offensive forcce , imo.
That is fair. ...but he was never really put in a position to dominate lesser players.
They draft class comparison is more about highlighting how young he is than anything.
That is fair. ...but he was never really put in a position to dominate lesser players.
They draft class comparison is more about highlighting how young he is than anything.
Understood , however look at his scoring as a late draft player compared to say Scott Kosmachuk . He never scored at close to an elite level so to me this indicates he is not likely to be an average top six scorer in the NHL , at least consistently.
He may become that , but I see serious flaws in his game and would have expected/hoped he would have begun to produce this year in the AHL.
I hope I am wrong , but I see a player with nice to really nice skills that doesn't produce and those players are abundant to be honest. He has not shown me finish , and again I hope I am wrong , but he hasn't really ever done that.
Understood , however look at his scoring as a late draft player compared to say Scott Kosmachuk . He never scored at close to an elite level so to me this indicates he is not likely to be an average top six scorer in the NHL , at least consistently.
He may become that , but I see serious flaws in his game and would have expected/hoped he would have begun to produce this year in the AHL.
I hope I am wrong , but I see a player with nice to really nice skills that doesn't produce and those players are abundant to be honest. He has not shown me finish , and again I hope I am wrong , but he hasn't really ever done that.
I agree with pretty much everything you said. He has good skills; plus stickhandler and has above average playmaking skills. The biggest issue that I continue to have with him is his offensive awarness and decesion making skills, they really are his achilies heel. My worry is that the longer this goes on without seeing tangable improvement, the less likely he will figure it out. The good news as others have also expressed is that he is very versatile and will be able to play a key role on this team in a third line/defensive capacity if his offense never comes around.
Understood , however look at his scoring as a late draft player compared to say Scott Kosmachuk . He never scored at close to an elite level so to me this indicates he is not likely to be an average top six scorer in the NHL , at least consistently.
He may become that , but I see serious flaws in his game and would have expected/hoped he would have begun to produce this year in the AHL.
I hope I am wrong , but I see a player with nice to really nice skills that doesn't produce and those players are abundant to be honest. He has not shown me finish , and again I hope I am wrong , but he hasn't really ever done that.
His pre draft scoring rates were pretty similar to those of Ryan Johansen, Mark Scheifele and Radek Faksa. All were top ten pick. All are expected to be top 6 talents and all were 1st year CHLers pre draft.
I agree that his game has flaws, but I don't think they are insurmountable. Early reports out of St. John's stated that he was his hockey sense and passing were looking phenomenal. If I am right about the puck luck (and I think I am) then the numbers will come too.
His pre draft scoring rates were pretty similar to those of Ryan Johansen, Mark Scheifele and Radek Faksa. All were top ten pick. All are expected to be top 6 talents and all were 1st year CHLers pre draft.
I agree that his game has flaws, but I don't think they are insurmountable. Early reports out of St. John's stated that he was his hockey sense and passing were looking phenomenal. If I am right about the puck luck (and I think I am) then the numbers will come too.
Hope you're right.
Burmi seems to be a confident player, but if he's not producing points, you have to think his confidence is being affected. I think he feels he can be an offensive player, so perhaps if he can score a bit at the AHL level, he will gain the confidence needed to have offensive success at the NHL level.
Burmi seems to be a confident player, but if he's not producing points, you have to think his confidence is being affected. I think he feels he can be an offensive player, so perhaps if he can score a bit at the AHL level, he will gain the confidence needed to have offensive success at the NHL level.
He's still very young.
The fact that he is the teams point leader among forwards, despite next to nothing going his way leaves me encouraged. If he and his linemates were converting on a normal amount of shots, he'd have 2 or 3 more goals and probably another 4 or 5 assists.
I agree about his need for confidence. Offensive confidence is what I hoped he'd take away from the AHL, but string of bad luck surely isn't doing him any favors. Hopefully the flood gates will open soon.
His pre draft scoring rates were pretty similar to those of Ryan Johansen, Mark Scheifele and Radek Faksa. All were top ten pick. All are expected to be top 6 talents and all were 1st year CHLers pre draft.
I agree that his game has flaws, but I don't think they are insurmountable. Early reports out of St. John's stated that he was his hockey sense and passing were looking phenomenal. If I am right about the puck luck (and I think I am) then the numbers will come too.
As a year older player. Some people don't put much stock into that , in all of my experience , it matters , so I do .
Of this group last year, Burmistrov was one of the least sheltered and did well, not a bit of worry there for me there. He's not doing great, but not terrible in the AHL either. Let's see how Burmi matches up with some better puckluck, because this looks like he's doing decent if it weren't for some of those bad bounces.
Let's get experimental.
Using SOG and normal career SH% I determined how many goals were "missing from Burmistrov's teammates: Machacek (1), Maxwell (4), Jaffray (1), Cormier (1), Gagnon (2), O`Neill (1), Tremblay (1), King (1), and Whitmore (2). That totals 13 extra goals, then minus the 4 from over normal SH% (Redmond, Meech, Macenauer, and Sawada), and you get 9 extra goals. Burmistrov so far has an assist for 18% of the IceCaps goals (obviously not counting his 2). Now this is a gross under estimation since most of the ones playing with Burmi have had the largest droughts (see Maxwell + Whitmore) and it doesn't include the rookies I don't have sh% on for, who are all undershooting (Melchiori 0%, Chiarot 0%, Telegin 6%) ... but we'll play safe just in case, this adds an extra 2 A to Burmistrov's totals, making 11A.
Doing the same for Burmistrov, and we find he should have 3 extra goals to his name, making 5G.
NAME
GP
SOG
G
A
PTS
SH%
SOG/GP
G/GP
A/GP
PTS/GP
AlexanderBurmistrov
22
52
5
11
16
9.6%
2.36
0.23
0.50
0.73
A much better Burmistrov who is doing as well as his peers on average, who many ahead have inflated shooting %. This also doesn't include any psychological affects with scoring droughts destroying confidence.
Edit:
This would also make Burmistrov head of the team for goals, assists and points.
Back to my HW all nighter
Thanks for those numbers garret - the thing that stands out for me is the low SH% (for pretty much the WHOLE IceCaps lineup). Get a run of better / more normal luck, and Burmi would be right in the mix in terms of scoring.
The fact that he is the teams point leader among forwards, despite next to nothing going his way leaves me encouraged. If he and his linemates were converting on a normal amount of shots, he'd have 2 or 3 more goals and probably another 4 or 5 assists.
I agree about his need for confidence. Offensive confidence is what I hoped he'd take away from the AHL, but string of bad luck surely isn't doing him any favors. Hopefully the flood gates will open soon.
*insert Russian stereotype of laziness here*
But seriously, I really like watching this guy play. Rarely a dull moment.
I've watched most of the ice caps home games this year and I can say his confidence rarely seems lacking, just a lack of finish and I think some of that can be taken from the fact that this team has alot of good players, but not great. It's why they did so well last year, alot of 15+ goal scores but no pure finisher.
Every time he steps on the ice, and that's not exaggerating, there is at least 1-2 rushes up ice with the puck on his stick. Id say he prefers to carry it over the line rather than dump and chase, which I kinda expect with the mits this kid has. His defensive side is amazing and that is one area where this team would be in hot water without him. Add all these factors with a stacked AHL due to lockout, I don't see him lighting it up big time, but the confidence is there.
... if you disagree, I won't be hurt if one of you send it away.
