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Prospect Stats and Discussion: 2012-13

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Old
11-27-2012, 10:17 PM
  #451
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To be fair Nash should have been a 3rd round pick, even in his incredibly weak draft class.
I recall both Riley Nash and Jamie Benn were BCHL rookies of the year. We just chose the wrong player

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11-27-2012, 10:47 PM
  #452
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Lowetide is a smart guy who's been watching oilers prospects for a long long time. His ranking of khaira is encouraging. No one is right all the time, lets just hope khaira continues to exceed expectations.




Best oiler blog out there. Ainec.
I wonder how much he's watched him? I haven't seen him yet so I wouldn't feel comfortable ranking him yet. Just because LT has been ranking prospects for a long time doesn't mean that his opinion on the matter is any better than anyone's here who has seen a number of these players.

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11-27-2012, 10:53 PM
  #453
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
I wonder how much he's watched him? I haven't seen him yet so I wouldn't feel comfortable ranking him yet. Just because LT has been ranking prospects for a long time doesn't mean that his opinion on the matter is any better than anyone's here who has seen a number of these players.
Probably not too much, but to be fair this is the first line on LT's review of Khaira:
Quote:
In placing Jujhar Khaira among the Oilers top 10 prospects, Iíve relied heavily on small sample sizes, anecdotal evidence and words from his coach.

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11-27-2012, 11:24 PM
  #454
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Oh I love to read LT, im just stating a point, and not getting to excited about kharia

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11-27-2012, 11:51 PM
  #455
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LT is a good blogger and was/is a great poster here. But none of us are professional scouts and all of our rankings/opinions should be taken with a grain of salt. Hell, most real scout's rankings should be taken with a grain of salt.

I agree that Khaira is intriguing. But so are many Cs with good size that put up decent numbers. He's got a long road ahead of him if he wants to make the NHL. I'm pulling for him, but I do that for all Oiler prospects.

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11-28-2012, 01:04 AM
  #456
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Also interesting point by LT about our current D prospect. He compared the Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat situation to the Jeff Petry, Taylor Chorney and Cody Wild situation back in the day. Saying if one turns into a top 4 itll be a success.

Do you guys think our current prospects have more merit then those previous 3 had at the same age?

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11-28-2012, 04:36 AM
  #457
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
I wonder how much he's watched him? I haven't seen him yet so I wouldn't feel comfortable ranking him yet. Just because LT has been ranking prospects for a long time doesn't mean that his opinion on the matter is any better than anyone's here who has seen a number of these players.
He is reasonably fair and balanced considering he's a huge fan of the team. Most importantly he clearly does a lot of research and puts a ton of thought into his lists. He's not omniscient and can't see every prospect's every game, but he's as good as oiler bloggers get. IMO.

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11-28-2012, 06:07 AM
  #458
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Originally Posted by topchowda View Post
Also interesting point by LT about our current D prospect. He compared the Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat situation to the Jeff Petry, Taylor Chorney and Cody Wild situation back in the day. Saying if one turns into a top 4 itll be a success.

Do you guys think our current prospects have more merit then those previous 3 had at the same age?
Absolutely.

If you were to pair them up I'd say that

Klefbom > Petry
Marincin > Chorney
Gernat > Wild

Assuming that the shoulder surgery goes well, Klefbom looks like a true blue chip prospect. While most of us liked Petry a lot, I am not sure you would have said the same about him when he was 19.

If Chorney was ever going to make the NHL it would have been as a smallish pmd. He is a very good skater, and he had a very good sophmore year at UND. But at this point Marincin seems to be well ahead of him in pretty much every aspect of the game if you compare their AHL rookie seasons. Chorney was also older when he entered the AHL.

Marincin has been a bit of a pleasant surprise for me. People say that his succes has been due to Schultz, but there have been a few nights where he has actually been the best of the pair.

Gernat is a wild card. He is still raw defensively, but has significant upside offensively. And he is 6'5" which carries certain advantages on its own. Like Gernat, the question mark on Wild was his ability in his own end. I think the advantage goes to Gernat here if for no other reason than I think he will be in a better developmental situation going forward.

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11-28-2012, 10:08 AM
  #459
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
I wonder how much he's watched him? I haven't seen him yet so I wouldn't feel comfortable ranking him yet. Just because LT has been ranking prospects for a long time doesn't mean that his opinion on the matter is any better than anyone's here who has seen a number of these players.
This is really my biggest problems with guys ranking prospects. Does anyone actually check track records or do we just assume the guy knows what he's talking about because he's convincing, nice guy and writes for Oilersnation?

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11-28-2012, 11:14 AM
  #460
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
This is really my biggest problems with guys ranking prospects. Does anyone actually check track records or do we just assume the guy knows what he's talking about because he's convincing, nice guy and writes for Oilersnation?
You mean because people are losing money if he's wrong? Seriously, it's one admitted amateur's opinion on prospects and he's able to express it in an eloquent manner. Nothing wrong with that.

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11-28-2012, 11:28 AM
  #461
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You mean because people are losing money if he's wrong? Seriously, it's one admitted amateur's opinion on prospects and he's able to express it in an eloquent manner. Nothing wrong with that.
So why not follow Eklund? No one is losing money on his trade rumors.

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11-28-2012, 11:28 AM
  #462
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
Absolutely.

If you were to pair them up I'd say that

Klefbom > Petry
Marincin > Chorney
Gernat > Wild

Assuming that the shoulder surgery goes well, Klefbom looks like a true blue chip prospect. While most of us liked Petry a lot, I am not sure you would have said the same about him when he was 19.

If Chorney was ever going to make the NHL it would have been as a smallish pmd. He is a very good skater, and he had a very good sophmore year at UND. But at this point Marincin seems to be well ahead of him in pretty much every aspect of the game if you compare their AHL rookie seasons. Chorney was also older when he entered the AHL.

Marincin has been a bit of a pleasant surprise for me. People say that his succes has been due to Schultz, but there have been a few nights where he has actually been the best of the pair.

Gernat is a wild card. He is still raw defensively, but has significant upside offensively. And he is 6'5" which carries certain advantages on its own. Like Gernat, the question mark on Wild was his ability in his own end. I think the advantage goes to Gernat here if for no other reason than I think he will be in a better developmental situation going forward.
I think you are looking with a little too much hindsight in respect to Chorney. If you go back a few years Chorney was a blue chip defenseman prospect. A top NCAA scorer for defenseman and Team USA captain, most people compared him to Brian Rafalski and expected him to be a number 2 defenseman with the only detraction for him being a number 1 was his size. Obviously that isn't the case but i think he was hyped a little more than Marancin has been hyped so far.

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11-28-2012, 11:30 AM
  #463
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
So why not follow Eklund? No one is losing money on his trade rumors.
Don't you have to pay to read most of Eklund's rumors??? so they are losing money lol.

I don't mind amateurs rating prospects as long as they don't pretend to be proffessional scouts and people don't use their ratings as a basis for judgement.

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11-28-2012, 11:52 AM
  #464
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Originally Posted by topchowda View Post
Also interesting point by LT about our current D prospect. He compared the Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat situation to the Jeff Petry, Taylor Chorney and Cody Wild situation back in the day. Saying if one turns into a top 4 itll be a success.

Do you guys think our current prospects have more merit then those previous 3 had at the same age?
I disagree, IMO we need 2 of those players to turn into top 4 guys and IMO there's a very good chance of that.

From what I have see of these guys at similar points in their careers (I haven't seen enough of Gernat to feel comfortable lumping him in)

Klefbom is the strongest defensively of the bunch and probably the best skater as well.

Marincin is the most creative offensively and also the biggest.

Petry IMO was probably a better skater than Marincin and more steady at the same age, however he used to get beaten laterally too much.

Chorney was a very good skater and passer, unlike a guy like Schultz he pinched at the wrong times, was the smallest of the group, and had the worst shot of the first 4 players.

Wild wasn't as good of a skater as Chorney, was a little bit bigger, didn't have much of a shot either but IMO had better timing jumping in on offense than Chorney did.

If I had to rank them in terms of who I thought were the best prospects at the time I would rank them like this in terms of likelihood of being NHL players:

1)Klefbom
2)Petry
3)Marincin
4)Wild
5)Chorney

Now while I would've been wrong on the order of 4 and 5 neither guy reached their potential and Chorney's poor pinches on D were always a big concern for me. Marincin's brain farts are the only real concern that I have for him right now and hopefully he kicks them as he gets more used to the pro game. Because IMO Petry was more steady (albeit in the NCAA) I would've ranked his chances to be in the NHL as better at the same points in their careers although IMO Marincin has a higher offensive ceiling.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 40oz View Post
Probably not too much, but to be fair this is the first line on LT's review of Khaira:
Fair enough, I like what I've heard of Khaira's family background and his work ethic because of his upbringing, but I need to see him for myself before saying anything one way or another. Living in the states I get to see more NCAA games than our Canadian fans but a LOT less CHL games.

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Old
11-28-2012, 12:23 PM
  #465
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^
From what I've seen of Gernat its like having a 4th forward on the ice (at the WHL level anyway)
He jumps in, finds lanes for backdoor passes, has an intelligent shot, good one timer....
Great on the PP, decent at ES but he is the type of guy who will need a rock for a partner until he develops the defensive part of his game.

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11-28-2012, 02:06 PM
  #466
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Originally Posted by stoff View Post
I think you are looking with a little too much hindsight in respect to Chorney. If you go back a few years Chorney was a blue chip defenseman prospect. A top NCAA scorer for defenseman and Team USA captain, most people compared him to Brian Rafalski and expected him to be a number 2 defenseman with the only detraction for him being a number 1 was his size. Obviously that isn't the case but i think he was hyped a little more than Marancin has been hyped so far.
Fair enough. When the Oilers picked Marincin he was pretty much an unknown to most of us. So yes, Chorney would have been far more hyped. But my comparison is not based on when they were drafted but rather on where they were at roughly the same time in their development as Marincin is now.

I could compare Joey Laleggia to Rafalksi as well. He is a top scoring NCAA defenseman and a with a great hockey sense. The problem is that most such players never convert their accomplishments in college to the big leagues. So while I am very much hoping that the Oilers found a gem in Laleggia, I would also temper my expectations.

Marincin is a different animal. He has an excellent two-way game, is also a very good skater and is much bigger than Chorney. Factor in what he has done so far in the AHL in comparison to what Chorney did in his first year and I would say that Marincin projects better as a pro going forward than Choreny would have when he was in his first AHL campaign. Others can disagree.

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11-28-2012, 02:58 PM
  #467
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Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
^
From what I've seen of Gernat its like having a 4th forward on the ice (at the WHL level anyway)
He jumps in, finds lanes for backdoor passes, has an intelligent shot, good one timer....
Great on the PP, decent at ES but he is the type of guy who will need a rock for a partner until he develops the defensive part of his game.
Thanks, like I said I'm not comfortable commenting on him since most of my viewings from him were in rookie camp. That said I liked what I saw then. Chorney wasn't strong enough or smart enough to be a really good NHLer IMO. The kid had wheels and could move the puck up ice, but I wouldn't rank him above Marincin or Petry, not even close really.

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11-28-2012, 03:04 PM
  #468
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Originally Posted by stoff View Post
I think you are looking with a little too much hindsight in respect to Chorney. If you go back a few years Chorney was a blue chip defenseman prospect. A top NCAA scorer for defenseman and Team USA captain, most people compared him to Brian Rafalski and expected him to be a number 2 defenseman with the only detraction for him being a number 1 was his size. Obviously that isn't the case but i think he was hyped a little more than Marancin has been hyped so far.
The other thing to remember is that his was the first draft post lockout IIRC and both he and Cogliano were supposed to represent the new NHL, smaller/more skilled players with speed. However the bottom line is that neither guy proved to be overly great picks and IMO showed yet again how our scouting staff thought that they were smarter than they really were.

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11-29-2012, 02:15 AM
  #469
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The other thing to remember is that his was the first draft post lockout IIRC and both he and Cogliano were supposed to represent the new NHL, smaller/more skilled players with speed. However the bottom line is that neither guy proved to be overly great picks and IMO showed yet again how our scouting staff thought that they were smarter than they really were.
I don't really think it's a case of outsmarting themselves, I think it's just spotty talent evaluation. Not really that mad about the Chorney pick looking back at it, they hit on Jeff Petry a year later in the 2nd round. You're not going to hit on all your 2nd round picks or even late firsts. At that point it's less than a 50% chance you're getting an NHL player.


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11-29-2012, 02:20 AM
  #470
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Also interesting point by LT about our current D prospect. He compared the Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat situation to the Jeff Petry, Taylor Chorney and Cody Wild situation back in the day. Saying if one turns into a top 4 itll be a success.

Do you guys think our current prospects have more merit then those previous 3 had at the same age?
On the whole, it's probably a realistic look at things in the grand scheme of things. If I were to bet money I'd probably say 1 will turn out to be a legit valuable NHL player that is the difference between winning and losing games on your roster, this is based on past draft histories and probabilities. However, you just never know. In 2007, Montreal drafted McDonagh, Subban and Yanick Weber in one draft and they are all NHL players now.

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11-29-2012, 11:01 AM
  #471
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
Absolutely.

If you were to pair them up I'd say that

Klefbom > Petry
Marincin > Chorney
Gernat > Wild

Assuming that the shoulder surgery goes well, Klefbom looks like a true blue chip prospect. While most of us liked Petry a lot, I am not sure you would have said the same about him when he was 19.

If Chorney was ever going to make the NHL it would have been as a smallish pmd. He is a very good skater, and he had a very good sophmore year at UND. But at this point Marincin seems to be well ahead of him in pretty much every aspect of the game if you compare their AHL rookie seasons. Chorney was also older when he entered the AHL.

Marincin has been a bit of a pleasant surprise for me. People say that his succes has been due to Schultz, but there have been a few nights where he has actually been the best of the pair.

Gernat is a wild card. He is still raw defensively, but has significant upside offensively. And he is 6'5" which carries certain advantages on its own. Like Gernat, the question mark on Wild was his ability in his own end. I think the advantage goes to Gernat here if for no other reason than I think he will be in a better developmental situation going forward.
Exactly, I think LT is bang on here with this.

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11-29-2012, 11:14 PM
  #472
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Tobias Rieder and the Kitchener Rangers will be on Sportsnet tomorrow night 5pm MT for anyone who wasn't aware. Rare chance to see an Oiler prospect from the OHL on television.

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11-30-2012, 12:00 AM
  #473
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Was I reading the stats page correctly?

Jordan Eberle 26 points!

Kinda stands out in the crowd, doesn't he.

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11-30-2012, 11:04 AM
  #474
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Bryanbryoil:

You asked about Jujhar Khaira on the NCAA prospects stats thread, so I'll answer it here since he's obviously an Oilers prospect.

Yes, I have seen him play already. The thing that has most impressed me about Khaira (BTW, his name is pronounced "Care- uh") is the fact that he plays with a great deal of calmness (for a lack of a better term). He doesn't seem to get too high or too low. Another thing that's impressed me about Khaira thus far is how well he forechecks. Even with his lack of strength, he's able to use his size quite effectively in that regard. For you and anyone else here who may not know, Michigan Tech is a tight-checking, puck-pressuring team. They have been for quite sometime and it's something that head coach Mel Pearson really stresses to his players. Khaira has obviously gotten the memo on that one.

Khaira is a big kid at about 6'3", but it's really obvious that he still needs to add size and strength. He's a very good skater with long, smooth strides. He's shown great poise and patience with the puck and usually makes the right decisions with the puck. He keeps his game relatively simple (very common for freshmen) and I haven't really seen an glaring mistakes that he's made. Khaira has shown that he can make good passes. He's good along the boards and in the corners, but his lack of strength allows him to be moved off the puck rather easily. He's not a physical player (read that tough guy-type), but he will deliver hits when necessary, but again, his lack of strength doesn't make him very effective in that area yet.

Khaira is still adjusting to the speed and skill of the college game, but he's looked good in the early going. That said, he is still a bit of a project, but with continued development and physical maturity, Khaira could potentially have a legit shot with the Oilers down the road.

I hope this helps and answers your question.

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11-30-2012, 11:53 AM
  #475
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Funny that you mention Khaira needing to add strength. I don't disagree (especially having never seen him play) since most, if not all, 18 year olds do, but he tested near the top of every strength test at the combine. Of course, that doesn't mean he's at the level of the players he's going up against every night, but it's encouraging to know that he's already ahead of the curve when it comes to other players his age.

Thanks for the info Oilers Chick. Khaira is by far the most intriguing Oiler prospect to me because I know so little about him and the measurables seem like a good fit. The fact that he was so underscouted leading up to the draft always makes you hopefull that a gem may have slipped through the cracks.

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