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So who is bummed about the lockout? II

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Old
11-28-2012, 09:01 AM
  #701
rynryn
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of course they do, now that the totally ****ed up interest in the sport.

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11-28-2012, 11:09 AM
  #702
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Originally Posted by BigT2002 View Post
Big thing on KFAN yesterday they were talking about was that the players want a fixed revenue stream regardless of the shape of the economy.
Yep. This is the Players pipe dream and D.Fehr's pie in the sky.

I would love to have a fixed baseline for my income as well. Of course, I am not some deluded prima donna like Toews who has his concussed head buried up to his nipples in the sand...

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11-28-2012, 11:31 AM
  #703
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Big thing on KFAN yesterday they were talking about was that the players want a fixed revenue stream regardless of the shape of the economy.
That's the plan for all unions. Protect its members from the economic realities that the rest of us have to deal with.

Of course, it never works, because than the burdens of the economic realities fall on the weaker parties/factions within the union (i.e. less senior, less powerful, and potential future members who as a result never get hired).

Yeah, congrats on your salary freezing or going up in a recession. You only had to fire the young guys, push out the old guys, stop all new hires, and make your business unprofitable to get there. Go you.

Lawyers do the same thing, just on a larger scale. (Because we have a monopoly on legal activities.)

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Old
11-28-2012, 11:51 AM
  #704
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There's an interesting sidebar that Nanne mentioned that NOBODY else has:

Players are worried about the potential for a dropping Canadian exchange rate.

(warning: Devil's advocate)

During the last lockout, the exchange rate was about 1.2 CAD = 1 USD. Right now it's just about even. Meaning that the value of the CAD rose about 20%.

Because all these revenue and salary calculations are in USD, that means the exchange rate "artificially" rose revenues. The number I've heard is that the Canadian teams drive about 1/3 of revenue, which means that if the CAD drops back to 2005 levels, it's a loss of $250-300M of revenue, give or take, and half of that is player salary.

You could also argue that the $250-300M in revenue inflation from the exchange rate led to the inflation of the salary floor which hurt small market US teams (who receive no benefit from the exchange rate) which is part of what is driving the current lockout.

Now if the players accept a 50-50 deal without guarantees and the CAD drops, they could see $150M+ in salary losses, or about 9% at last year's revenues. That's substantial losses for all players yet only the seven Canadian teams are affected as well as a very minor amount of revenue sharing.

I'm kind of surprised this hasn't come up more often, because it's a legitimate concern for both sides IMO.

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11-28-2012, 11:56 AM
  #705
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Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
I'm kind of surprised this hasn't come up more often, because it's a legitimate concern for both sides IMO.
I've actually thought about that some, but a lot of forex projections maintain that the USD and CAD will remain roughly (and by design, artificially) equal for quite some time. In other words, if you want to cheat and make money by leveraging the fluctuations in exchange rates, skip any USD to CAD or vice versa for a long, long time.

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11-28-2012, 12:42 PM
  #706
nickschultzfan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
There's an interesting sidebar that Nanne mentioned that NOBODY else has:

Players are worried about the potential for a dropping Canadian exchange rate.

(warning: Devil's advocate)

During the last lockout, the exchange rate was about 1.2 CAD = 1 USD. Right now it's just about even. Meaning that the value of the CAD rose about 20%.

Because all these revenue and salary calculations are in USD, that means the exchange rate "artificially" rose revenues. The number I've heard is that the Canadian teams drive about 1/3 of revenue, which means that if the CAD drops back to 2005 levels, it's a loss of $250-300M of revenue, give or take, and half of that is player salary.

You could also argue that the $250-300M in revenue inflation from the exchange rate led to the inflation of the salary floor which hurt small market US teams (who receive no benefit from the exchange rate) which is part of what is driving the current lockout.

Now if the players accept a 50-50 deal without guarantees and the CAD drops, they could see $150M+ in salary losses, or about 9% at last year's revenues. That's substantial losses for all players yet only the seven Canadian teams are affected as well as a very minor amount of revenue sharing.

I'm kind of surprised this hasn't come up more often, because it's a legitimate concern for both sides IMO.
This isn't a concern because the US has devalued the dollar massively over the last 4 years, greatly beyond the devaluing done by the Canadian government.

The US dollar is going to be relevatively weak for years and years in comparison to what it used to be.

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11-29-2012, 04:02 PM
  #707
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Mediation = no traction.

Let me show you my shocked face...


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Old
11-29-2012, 04:16 PM
  #708
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Gee, I wonder why they're so far apart and the mediators found them to be so? Hi, de-linkage.

****Fehr

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Old
11-29-2012, 04:20 PM
  #709
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It took them two days to decide they weren't making any progress.

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11-29-2012, 04:23 PM
  #710
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nickschultzfan View Post
This isn't a concern because the US has devalued the dollar massively over the last 4 years, greatly beyond the devaluing done by the Canadian government.

The US dollar is going to be relevatively weak for years and years in comparison to what it used to be.
The Canadian dollar has experienced a significant and temporary demand increase to pull it to approximately par with the US dollar. The dollar's drop had little to do with government sponsored devaluation. It's a result of investors and speculators moving away from the USD during the recession and into somewhat less threatening currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars.

CAD isn't likely to have huge movement in any direction soon, but if it does move, it's likely to be a result of investors moving back to the USD, driving the exchange rate back towards (but probably not to) 2005 levels.

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11-29-2012, 04:46 PM
  #711
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so the nhl is suggesting owners/players meeting and thats it. lets see where this takes things?

"I offered to pay you big!"
"I'm sorry daddy, lets hug it out and sign this thing."

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11-29-2012, 05:04 PM
  #712
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Well it's either a great or terrible idea. I could see it going both ways.

If those who think Bettman and Fehr are making things worse are correct, this could help them get closer. If those who think the players are idiots and the owners are driving the bus, this could blow up.

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11-29-2012, 06:21 PM
  #713
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I think this is the last straw. If this doesn't get anywhere, I wouldn't expect to see any hockey this year

Let's hope for the best!

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Old
11-29-2012, 06:22 PM
  #714
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This all gets more hilarious and embarrassing each passing day.

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11-29-2012, 06:34 PM
  #715
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I think this is where Bettman and Fehr learned to negotiate.

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11-29-2012, 08:45 PM
  #716
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I don't believe for a second Fehr will allow the players to speak with any league members or representatives for the league without an information control agent present.

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Old
12-01-2012, 05:25 AM
  #717
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Not sure if this has already been mentioned, but this sucks. That letter is depressing to read. Too bad the PA won't see it....not that they'd care.

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Old
12-01-2012, 02:27 PM
  #718
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King Henrik is a crybaby on Twitter. holy crap.

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Old
12-03-2012, 11:45 AM
  #719
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigT2002 View Post
King Henrik is a crybaby on Twitter. holy crap.
Oh, you mean this?

Quote:
Henrik Lundqvist ‏@HLundqvist30
Without the big market teams NHL is in BIG trouble so explain to me why they are not invited? in these meetings?? #wewanthockey
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30 Nov @bozak911
@HLundqvist30 No offense, but if you think that Snider, Dolan and MLSE don't have a say in what the NHL has proposed... #deluded
30 Nov @bozak911
@HLundqvist30 In the meantime, remember that the NHL canceled 04-05 to get salary linkage and every NHLPA proposal is de-linked... #facepalm

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Old
12-03-2012, 12:03 PM
  #720
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I'm surprised the Toews haters haven't come in and ripped the NHLPA for likely putting him in the room with the owners.

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Old
12-03-2012, 12:36 PM
  #721
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Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
I'm surprised the Toews haters haven't come in and ripped the NHLPA for likely putting him in the room with the owners.
I hadn't seen the proposed player lists. Having a hardliner like Toews there could really go either way. Does actually being forced to deal with reality open his eyes? If so, that will likely go a long way towards getting a deal done. Does he just blindly keep with the union line? That could torpedo negotiations, but if everyone else in the room but him ends up actually getting somewhere, it could also kill the influence hardliners have in general.

I'm not going to worry about the discussions until after they're over because they're too far out in left field for me to have any impression of how they might go. If I had to pick one person from the group to exclude from the meetings, it wouldn't be Toews, it would be Jeremy Jacobs.

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Old
12-03-2012, 12:56 PM
  #722
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I think Toews is level-headed enough to not sink the negotiations. Hopefully he takes it in and softens his views a bit and can convince some of the others.

I'm really curious to see if Pittsburgh's GM can help things as well. You need a couple peace-makers in the room.

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12-03-2012, 01:01 PM
  #723
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Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
I'm surprised the Toews haters haven't come in and ripped the NHLPA for likely putting him in the room with the owners.
i bashed the selection of Toews for this meeting on twitter.

i simply expect him to use the "NO UR" argument... /sigh

and no, i don't think he is level headed. i think he is a) a hothead and b) a twit.

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12-03-2012, 04:41 PM
  #724
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bozak911 View Post
i bashed the selection of Toews for this meeting on twitter.

i simply expect him to use the "NO UR" argument... /sigh

and no, i don't think he is level headed. i think he is a) a hothead and b) a twit.
But think of the INTANGIBLES!

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Old
12-03-2012, 05:19 PM
  #725
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Toews is not going to add anything positive, he proved how much he knows on twitter, now if this meeting is a beer pong contest i expect him to use his well earned UND skills to shine but i wont be.

the other thing that worries me is Jeremy Jacobs is on here, i feel that we won't have a deal unless he is willing to compromise.

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