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Forbes 2012 NHL team values

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Old
11-28-2012, 03:38 PM
  #1
Paradise
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Forbes 2012 NHL team values

http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozan...rth-1-billion/

Quote:
20. Winnipeg Jets
Team value: $200 million
Owner: True North Sports & Entertainment
Revenue 2011-12: $105 million
Operating income 2011-12: $13.3 million

True North's $170 million ($110 million to Atlanta Spirit LLC and $60 million relocation fee to NHL) purchase of the Jets, who also own the MTS Centre, has been a winning move as the team sold out every game during their first season in Winnipeg.

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11-28-2012, 03:42 PM
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Impressive jump in value compared to last year.
Not sure anyone would be surprised by this.

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11-28-2012, 03:49 PM
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Nice to see. But I've never been a big fan of Forbes' numbers, they are nothing more than guesses. Educated guesses, but guesses all the same. I really really really doubt the last place Oilers managed to have a higher revenue than the year 1 Jets, for example. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm guessing as well, but yeah guesses.

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11-28-2012, 03:52 PM
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So that means that they made 13.3m bucks? Not bad.

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11-28-2012, 03:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Nice to see. But I've never been a big fan of Forbes' numbers, they are nothing more than guesses. Educated guesses, but guesses all the same. I really really really doubt the last place Oilers managed to have a higher revenue than the year 1 Jets, for example. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm guessing as well, but yeah guesses.
Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but to me it looks like most Canadian teams made over 10m dollars this past year. How can they claim that their losing money? Oilers and Sens anyways.

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11-28-2012, 03:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Nice to see. But I've never been a big fan of Forbes' numbers, they are nothing more than guesses. Educated guesses, but guesses all the same. I really really really doubt the last place Oilers managed to have a higher revenue than the year 1 Jets, for example. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm guessing as well, but yeah guesses.
Ya, I'm not really a big fan of Forbes numbers either. I just thought it'd be nice to see some more recent numbers than the ones we see posted every so often from the Atlanta franchise.

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11-28-2012, 04:04 PM
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Nice to know the seven Canadian teams are in the top 20!

Any team placed in QC, Hamilton, Toronto would be worth over $200 M, my guess, QC $210M, Hamilton $250M, Toronto 2 $450M

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11-28-2012, 04:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paradise View Post
Ya, I'm not really a big fan of Forbes numbers either. I just thought it'd be nice to see some more recent numbers than the ones we see posted every so often from the Atlanta franchise.
Agreed. And they are interesting to talk about and discuss, this is a discussion forum for talking about things like this , just wanted to point out that these should not be taken as gospel.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but to me it looks like most Canadian teams made over 10m dollars this past year. How can they claim that their losing money? Oilers and Sens anyways.
See the above part. These numbers CANNOT be taken literally. They are guesses. Forbes does not have access to team spending, nor revenue. They are estimating these numbers.

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11-28-2012, 06:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sipowicz View Post
Nice to know the seven Canadian teams are in the top 20!

Any team placed in QC, Hamilton, Toronto would be worth over $200 M, my guess, QC $210M, Hamilton $250M, Toronto 2 $450M
I know this is nitpicking but there's no reason to believe a team in QC would be worth more than the Jets. Both markets are/were starved of hockey and are the same size but Winnipeg has far more corporate headquarters than QC. QC would do fine though.

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11-28-2012, 06:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Agreed. And they are interesting to talk about and discuss, this is a discussion forum for talking about things like this , just wanted to point out that these should not be taken as gospel.



See the above part. These numbers CANNOT be taken literally. They are guesses. Forbes does not have access to team spending, nor revenue. They are estimating these numbers.
But that is what the estimated number represents though?

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11-28-2012, 07:18 PM
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12.6% margin is pretty good imo.
Most business' would kill for that.
Happy too see actually

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11-28-2012, 07:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
So that means that they made 13.3m bucks? Not bad.
Why, that's $300,000 more than Shea Weber's signing bonus this year!

This was roughly the profit that was bandied about on this board a few months ago, isn't it?

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11-28-2012, 07:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Woodballs View Post
12.6% margin is pretty good imo.
Most business' would kill for that.
Happy too see actually
But in terms of revenues, last year was probably the high-water mark for the team (for a non-playoff year). Everyone was buying Jets merch from Jets Gear in St. Vital and MTSC. Every home game was a party...lots of concession spending. I don't see merchandise sales ever surpassing 2011-2012. Concessions might continue apace. But if the team doesn't grow revenues as quickly as league average, they eventually fall behind with a cap tied to league revenues...

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11-28-2012, 08:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
But in terms of revenues, last year was probably the high-water mark for the team (for a non-playoff year). Everyone was buying Jets merch from Jets Gear in St. Vital and MTSC. Every home game was a party...lots of concession spending. I don't see merchandise sales ever surpassing 2011-2012. Concessions might continue apace. But if the team doesn't grow revenues as quickly as league average, they eventually fall behind with a cap tied to league revenues...
That's also not including any potential playoff revenue or franchise growth, which went up $30 million since the purchase ($170mil to $200mil).

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11-28-2012, 09:25 PM
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Holden is right.....Forbes is guessing but they are probably not miles off. those who said merch sales will never match this past year are correct IMHO. Nobody had any new Jets wear and sales were insane out of their dedicated locations where they get inflated retail mark up.

My guess is that the bottom line could be close though in a stab in the dark kind of way. Going forward it "COULD" be nice if payroll costs dropped via the 50-50 split, that would add to the bottom line of TNSE. Also On the horizon is the next Canadian national TV deal and I am hearing rumblings that it could "increase" each teams revenues by $10 million. I know that seems alarming ($300 million increase in the deal) but the replacement cost of the current time inventory is estimated to be $200 million now so I wouldn't be suprised to see a multi network deal at over $400 million.

My hopes are when the dust settles on the CBA that TNSE can be a mid to upper cap team, receive modest revenue sharing, new TV money, and reduced cost structure that they can make about $20 million a year. If that happens the NHL will be in a healthy place financially and could move on to a new era of RELATIVE labor piece. Here's the rub.....the average salaries of the players would be higher as well

This is what is insane about the lockout. Between increased national sponsorships and the pending Canadian TV money the NHL and NHLPA are on the cusp of becoming a $4 billion dollar entity ($2 billion each) but I honestly think if they lose a season they could drop below $3 billion for a while and then they all suffer relatively speaking of coarse

shear and utter madness

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11-28-2012, 11:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
Holden is right.....Forbes is guessing but they are probably not miles off. those who said merch sales will never match this past year are correct IMHO.
I dunno my Jets shirt has a tear in it and I keep losing my mitts

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11-29-2012, 12:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
But in terms of revenues, last year was probably the high-water mark for the team (for a non-playoff year). Everyone was buying Jets merch from Jets Gear in St. Vital and MTSC. Every home game was a party...lots of concession spending. I don't see merchandise sales ever surpassing 2011-2012. Concessions might continue apace. But if the team doesn't grow revenues as quickly as league average, they eventually fall behind with a cap tied to league revenues...
I don't neccessarily buy the notion that last year was the high point revenuewise. I think it is importanat to note that the bulk of NHL merchandise is pooled into one big pot and than split 30 ways. The Jets may see some decrease in merchandise from their own team run stores, but I really doubt that those sales factered largely into team revenues. The Jets also raised ticket prices by 3% and I hear that concessions may have gone up slightly as well. Those will more than offset any decrease in team source merchandise sales and as PS241 stated a potential very lucrative Canadian TV deal is around the corner. I also think that every team gets a cut of that NBC deal as well which is worth $200 million a year or roughly $7 million a team. I don't see their revenue streams doing anything but increasing.

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11-29-2012, 12:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by surixon View Post
I don't neccessarily buy the notion that last year was the high point revenuewise. I think it is importanat to note that the bulk of NHL merchandise is pooled into one big pot and than split 30 ways. The Jets may see some decrease in merchandise from their own team run stores, but I really doubt that those sales factered largely into team revenues. The Jets also raised ticket prices by 3% and I hear that concessions may have gone up slightly as well. Those will more than offset any decrease in team source merchandise sales and as PS241 stated a potential very lucrative Canadian TV deal is around the corner. I also think that every team gets a cut of that NBC deal as well which is worth $200 million a year or roughly $7 million a team. I don't see their revenue streams doing anything but increasing.
I think they are talking relative to the rest of the league. 3% is barely ahead of general inflation, and behind the revenue growth the NHL has experienced in any of the previous 7 seasons. Most projections have NHL continuing to grow at 4-7%. Unlikely concessions grow by much more if any more than the 4-7%.

Every team does get a cut from the NBC deal but it was in effect last year so there will be no gain there in the next decade. The CDN deal may increase, hard to say, it is up for renegotiation very soon.

I think many of you would be surprised at what the Jets stores took in last year. It was insane the amount of money they were pulling in. The Jets made everything a normal store might make (ie mark up) on everything sold in the Jets store. Think about how a River City Sports is such a profitable business on it's own, and the Jets store was likely far far ahead of RCS last year. Obviously there will still be PLENTY of revenue coming through the Jets store, it will be down by a fair bit in upcoming years.

So in the end, while the revenue WILL increase, it will likely fall relative to other teams as our revenue was pretty much at the high end of what we will be possible of in the next 2-4 years at least, barring any playoff revenue. In all likelihood, with the forced small increases in the ST price, we will not match NHL wide revenue gains over the next few years.

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11-29-2012, 12:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
I think they are talking relative to the rest of the league. 3% is barely ahead of general inflation, and behind the revenue growth the NHL has experienced in any of the previous 7 seasons. Most projections have NHL continuing to grow at 4-7%. Unlikely concessions grow by much more if any more than the 4-7%.

Every team does get a cut from the NBC deal but it was in effect last year so there will be no gain there in the next decade. The CDN deal may increase, hard to say, it is up for renegotiation very soon.

I think many of you would be surprised at what the Jets stores took in last year. It was insane the amount of money they were pulling in. The Jets made everything a normal store might make (ie mark up) on everything sold in the Jets store. Think about how a River City Sports is such a profitable business on it's own, and the Jets store was likely far far ahead of RCS last year. Obviously there will still be PLENTY of revenue coming through the Jets store, it will be down by a fair bit in upcoming years.

So in the end, while the revenue WILL increase, it will likely fall relative to other teams as our revenue was pretty much at the high end of what we will be possible of in the next 2-4 years at least, barring any playoff revenue. In all likelihood, with the forced small increases in the ST price, we will not match NHL wide revenue gains over the next few years.
Good post. The Jets may not keep pace for the next few years in revenue growth, but I think a drop in the players share of HRR and the decrease/removal of many of the start up expenses will still put them in a pretty advanageous position imo. I am however interested in how the increased revenue sharing pot will be distributed. I realise that the bottem 10 teams will take a the vast majority, but I had an idea on how to help the middle 10. I figured that the middle 10 would be given a "top up cheque" which would make up the difference between the individual teams growth and the league's average growth. i.e if the Jets grow at 3% while the league grows 5.5% the Jets would get a cheque for roughly $2.6 million to allow them to keep pace with league growth. I think a system like this would really help the reveune growth disparity that the league has seen lately probably wouldnt be much more than an average of $5 million per team in the middle bracket. It would still leave a good 170 million for the bottem third.

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11-29-2012, 11:20 AM
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Quote:
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Good post. The Jets may not keep pace for the next few years in revenue growth, but I think a drop in the players share of HRR and the decrease/removal of many of the start up expenses will still put them in a pretty advanageous position imo. I am however interested in how the increased revenue sharing pot will be distributed. I realise that the bottem 10 teams will take a the vast majority, but I had an idea on how to help the middle 10. I figured that the middle 10 would be given a "top up cheque" which would make up the difference between the individual teams growth and the league's average growth. i.e if the Jets grow at 3% while the league grows 5.5% the Jets would get a cheque for roughly $2.6 million to allow them to keep pace with league growth. I think a system like this would really help the reveune growth disparity that the league has seen lately probably wouldnt be much more than an average of $5 million per team in the middle bracket. It would still leave a good 170 million for the bottem third.
Yes, whatever kind of plan the NHL comes up with, it should ensure that a team like Winnipeg with a large base of hockey fans and a fairly modern, sold-out arena can make money. Sure, the MTSC is small, but it has a reasonable number of luxury boxes, and a $92 average ticket price for a sold-out 14,000 seat arena is equivalent to a $68 average ticket price and a 19,000 seat sold-out arena.

I did like that revenue sharing plan that was posted here a couple of months back in the early days of labour strife where every team pays 50% of its own HRR. So Toronto pays $100 million, Columbus pays $42.5 million, Islanders pay $33 million, etc.

Aside: Actually, just looking at the Forbes revenue numbers, under that plan, 13 teams would contribute more than the cap midpoint ($56.23 million) - totalling $173.51 million. Over 75% ($130.6 million) of that would come from the Top 4 revenue teams (Toronto, NYR, Montreal and Vancouver). Toronto and NYR by themselves contribute 25% each.

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11-29-2012, 11:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
I think they are talking relative to the rest of the league. 3% is barely ahead of general inflation, and behind the revenue growth the NHL has experienced in any of the previous 7 seasons. Most projections have NHL continuing to grow at 4-7%. Unlikely concessions grow by much more if any more than the 4-7%.

Every team does get a cut from the NBC deal but it was in effect last year so there will be no gain there in the next decade. The CDN deal may increase, hard to say, it is up for renegotiation very soon.

I think many of you would be surprised at what the Jets stores took in last year. It was insane the amount of money they were pulling in. The Jets made everything a normal store might make (ie mark up) on everything sold in the Jets store. Think about how a River City Sports is such a profitable business on it's own, and the Jets store was likely far far ahead of RCS last year. Obviously there will still be PLENTY of revenue coming through the Jets store, it will be down by a fair bit in upcoming years.

So in the end, while the revenue WILL increase, it will likely fall relative to other teams as our revenue was pretty much at the high end of what we will be possible of in the next 2-4 years at least, barring any playoff revenue. In all likelihood, with the forced small increases in the ST price, we will not match NHL wide revenue gains over the next few years.
How much room for growth do we really think there is in markets like Toronto and Montreal?

League wide (shared) contracts should account more most off the immediate growth.

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11-29-2012, 11:52 AM
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I like the Forbes numbers. I think they put out as solid / thorough of an estimate as anyone.

These numbers are probably pretty good ball park figures.

One interesting thing that stands out to me:

Forbes 2011 NHL valuations had the league's total operating income at $126.5MM. That number jumped to $250.3MM in 2012. That is a sizable difference an no it isn't all Winnipeg, we would only account for a $30 ish swing.

I believe Forbes has 18 team losing money (including ATL / Wpg) last year vs just 13 this year.

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11-29-2012, 12:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
I think they are talking relative to the rest of the league. 3% is barely ahead of general inflation, and behind the revenue growth the NHL has experienced in any of the previous 7 seasons. Most projections have NHL continuing to grow at 4-7%. Unlikely concessions grow by much more if any more than the 4-7%.

Every team does get a cut from the NBC deal but it was in effect last year so there will be no gain there in the next decade. The CDN deal may increase, hard to say, it is up for renegotiation very soon.

I think many of you would be surprised at what the Jets stores took in last year. It was insane the amount of money they were pulling in. The Jets made everything a normal store might make (ie mark up) on everything sold in the Jets store. Think about how a River City Sports is such a profitable business on it's own, and the Jets store was likely far far ahead of RCS last year. Obviously there will still be PLENTY of revenue coming through the Jets store, it will be down by a fair bit in upcoming years.

So in the end, while the revenue WILL increase, it will likely fall relative to other teams as our revenue was pretty much at the high end of what we will be possible of in the next 2-4 years at least, barring any playoff revenue. In all likelihood, with the forced small increases in the ST price, we will not match NHL wide revenue gains over the next few years.
I agree with much of this but feel you are possibly underestimating damage done by the lockout. Markets like Winnipeg and the others located in Canada will continue strong and sold out at the gate but the casual fan will be missed in some of the ancillary markets. The net result will probably be that the comparatively "rich" will stay rich for a few years and that Winnipeg will maintain their revenue percentage pace during the intermediate period as a result.

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11-29-2012, 01:08 PM
  #24
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How much room for growth do we really think there is in markets like Toronto and Montreal?

League wide (shared) contracts should account more most off the immediate growth.
What would league HRR look like if those two teams made the playoffs? Met in the Eastern Final?? Won the Cup??! I can't even imagine...

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11-29-2012, 04:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Nice to see. But I've never been a big fan of Forbes' numbers, they are nothing more than guesses. Educated guesses, but guesses all the same. I really really really doubt the last place Oilers managed to have a higher revenue than the year 1 Jets, for example. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm guessing as well, but yeah guesses.
Why not? Last place doesn't matter - they still sold out every game. Rexall Place might be a hole, but it does have more seats (and they are expensive cheap).

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