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11-27-2012, 07:04 PM
  #1
Red Haired Shanks
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Gauge Our Prospects

there are a lot of people in general who think way to much of our prospects. not all of our prospects will turn out to be NHLers or even elite NHLers, so realistically what will you expect our prospects to turn out as and give NHL comparables for the ones you feel that will make the NHL
here are the prospects


Goaltenders:
-Eddie Lack: Fringe NHL starter/NHL backup- lindback like
-Joe Cannata: NHL Backup/AHL starter-clemmensen like
-------------------------------------------
-David Honzik: Does not make NHL, possible AHL Backup or czech league starter

Defense:
-Chris Tanev: NHL 2nd pairing-gunnarrson like
-Kevin Connauton :NHL 2nd/3rd pairing-salo/garrison like(in the sense of his booming shot and one timers)
-Patrick McNally : NHL 2nd/3rd pairing-Allen like
-Frank Corrado: NHL 1st/2nd pairing-carle like
-Yann Sauve: NHL 5th-6th D-man-douglas murray like
--------------------------------------
-Henrik Tommernes: Europe top 4
-Jermey Price: AHL top 4
-Adam Polasek: Europe top 6
-Ben Hutton: AHL top 4
-Evan McEneny: AHL top 6
-Peter Andersson: Europe top 6

LW:
--------------------------------------------
-Darren Archibald: AHL bottom 6/4th liner
-Ludwig Blomstrand: Europe 3rd liner
-Steven Anthony: AHL bottom 6
-Bill Sweatt: AHL top 6
-Wesley Myron: AHL 3rd liner
-Matthew Beatie: AHL 3rd liner

RW:
-Nicklas Jensen: NHL 2nd line, good enough for 1st line duties- matt molson like
-Zack Kassian: NHL 2nd line- clowe like
-Anton Rodin: Europe top 6/NHL 3rd liner-hansen like
------------------------------------------
-Alexandre Grenier: Europe top 6
-Pathrik Westerholm: Europe 3rd liner
-Kellan Tochkin: Europe 3rd liner

Centers:
-Jordan Schroeder: NHL 3rd liner-Goc like
-Brendan Gaunce: NHL 2nd/3rd liner-kesler like
-Joseph Labate: NHL 3rd liner- gaustad like
-Alexandre Mallet: NHL 4th liner-lapierre like
-------------------------------------------
-Prab Rai: AHL 3rd liner/ECHLer
-Alex Freisen: AHL 3rd liner
-Stefan Schneider: AHL 3rd/4th liner


what do you expect?
-i think corrado is going to turn out well and surprise a lot of people.
-if schroeder can overcome his size problem he can be very talented, possible 2nd liner.
-i can see gaunce turning out like kesler, expected to be a 3rd line checking center and turn out to be a great 2 way forward who can put up points.
-our left wingers need to improve big time.
-i think Gillis should trade up in the draft this year to get a top 10 pick.


Last edited by Red Haired Shanks: 11-27-2012 at 07:46 PM.
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11-27-2012, 07:19 PM
  #2
Aqualung
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Haired Shanks View Post
there are a lot of people in general who think way to much of our prospects. not all of our prospects will turn out to be NHLers or even elite NHLers, so realistically what will you expect our prospects to turn out as and give NHL comparables for the ones you feel that will make the NHL
here are the prospects


Goaltenders:
-Eddie Lack: Fringe NHL starter/NHL backup- lindback like
-Joe Cannata: NHL Backup/AHL starter-clemmensen like
-------------------------------------------
-David Honzik: Does not make NHL, possible AHL Backup or czech league starter

Defense:
-Chris Tanev: NHL 2nd pairing-gunnarrson like
-Kevin Connauton :NHL 2nd/3rd pairing-salo/garrison like (No... plays nothing like them)
-Patrick McNally : NHL 2nd/3rd pairing-Allen like (This one is more like Carle)
-Frank Corrado: NHL 1st/2nd pairing-carle like (plays more like Keith)
-Yann Sauve: NHL 5th-6th D-man-douglas murray like (nope, likely won't make NHL and if he does like Rome)
--------------------------------------
-Henrik Tommernes: Europe top 4
-Jermey Price: AHL top 4
-Adam Polasek: Europe top 6
-Ben Hutton: AHL top 4
-Evan McEneny: AHL top 6
-Peter Andersson: Europe top 6

LW:
--------------------------------------------
-Darren Archibald: AHL bottom 6/4th liner
-Ludwig Blomstrand: Europe 3rd liner
-Steven Anthony: AHL bottom 6
-Bill Sweatt: AHL top 6
-Wesley Myron: AHL 3rd liner
-Matthew Beatie: AHL 3rd liner

RW:
-Nicklas Jensen: NHL 2nd line, good enough for 1st line duties- matt molson like (not even similar, Moulson is not a great skater and Jensen is fairly swift, more like Havlat without the defense)
-Zack Kassian: NHL 2nd line- clowe like
-Anton Rodin: Europe top 6/NHL 3rd liner-hansen like (wont make NHL, not enough jam)
------------------------------------------
-Alexandre Grenier: Europe top 6
-Pathrik Westerholm: Europe 3rd liner
-Kellan Tochkin: Europe 3rd liner

Centers:
-Jordan Schroeder: NHL 3rd liner-Goc like (No...)
-Brendan Gaunce: NHL 2nd/3rd liner-kesler like (Nope, more like Brendan Sutter)
-Joseph Labate: NHL 3rd liner- gaustad like (nope, more like Boyle)
-Alexandre Mallet: NHL 4th liner-lapierre like
-------------------------------------------
-Prab Rai: AHL 3rd liner/ECHLer
-Alex Freisen: AHL 3rd liner
-Stefan Schneider: AHL 3rd/4th liner


what do you expect?
-i think corrado is going to turn out well and surprise a lot of people.
-if schroeder can overcome his size problem he can be very talented, possible 2nd liner.
-i can see gaunce turning out like kesler, expected to be a 3rd line checking center and turn out to be a great 2 way forward who can put up points.
-our left wingers need to improve big time.
-i think Gillis should trade up in the draft this year to get a top 10 pick.
Some of your expectations for these players are even high for me, I think that Tanev, Corrado, Jensen, and Kassian are likely life-long NHLers.

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11-27-2012, 07:28 PM
  #3
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Im only doing the ones im more confident about judging

Schroeder = good scoring 3rd liner who you might throw up on the 2nd line (raymond like). He is a smart player and i do think hes too smart for the ahl (hard to imagine him not making the nhl). hes got a good strong lower body to make up for his lack of size also

Kassian = 2nd line RW. Better than Clowe though. Kassians passing skills are VERY good. He might be closer to Kesler in the sense that he could be a teams number 1 if they weren't deep. I have extremely high hopes for Kassian. Higher than Hodgson. I think he'll reach real close to 70 points for a couple seasons (extra minutes due to PP , similar to kesler) (30 goals 40 assists)

Eddie Lack, im not a big time goaltender prospect expert, im not used to judging young goaltenders but most of the time, they look very raw from my experience and this guy looks like an NHL goaltender, no question. He reminds me of Schneider. Ive watched him pretty closely so far with the Moose and almost all goals that went in while i was watching him, were completely on his D men and he didn't have much chance on. When he sees the puck, he usually gets it. This is a prospect our team thought was their number 1 prospect. And from what I see, i can understand why. I think he'll be a starting goaltender on some team during some point. Too hard to say, the nhl is so deep with good goaltenders. If i were to guess a backup or starter, i'd go with a starter.

Chris Tanev, 5th D with the potential of being the 4th D. Or the 3rd D on a lousy team.

Jensen, 2nd line on a good team. I think he'll get 25 goals

I hate judging anybody who isn't at the pro level but Corrado looks good. I didn't know why people were so high on this guy during the HFBoards rankings but i watched the subway series game he played in and im VERY pleased. Just a feeling but I think he'll be more of a player than Tanev. We'll see though. He hasn't really proven anything yet

Rodin? I dont think he becomes an NHL player, i think he ends up playing in europe or something.

The rest, not sure many make it besides a few grinders who beat the odds (mallet possibly), Connauton probably will as a 6-7th D maybe.. I know nothing about Gaunce

And I agree with Aqualung, your expectations are pretty high for me also


Last edited by Pseudonymous: 11-28-2012 at 01:07 PM.
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Old
11-27-2012, 07:40 PM
  #4
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Lack: Nhl starter/backup, Martin Biron?
Kassian: Nhl top 6 forward, Scott Hartnell? 25g 25a~
Jensen: Nhl top 6 forward, Milan Michalek? 30g 30a~
Tanev: Nhl top 6 defenceman
Corrado: Nhl top 4 defenceman
Connauton Nhl top 6 defenceman, M.A Bergeron?
Gaunce:Nhl 2nd/3rd line forward, Brandon Sutter?
Schroeder: Nhl 2nd/3rd line forward, David Desharnais? with less production
Mallet:Nhl 4th line forward

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11-27-2012, 07:57 PM
  #5
Red Haired Shanks
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aqualung View Post
Some of your expectations for these players are even high for me, I think that Tanev, Corrado, Jensen, and Kassian are likely life-long NHLers.
good comparisons, a lot better than mine. i was thinking of different aspects of their game that are similar not overall game similarities, but you got some good NHL comparisons there.
our prospect pool kinda sucks tbh. we have some good role players and fillers but no top end talent. when the sedins and kesler leave hopefully we have replacement but if we keep drafting and adding talent like this we wont be making the playoffs and will have to rebuild

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11-27-2012, 07:57 PM
  #6
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Did you compare McNally to Bryan Allen? Because they are polar opposites. Or is there another Allen that I don't know of?

Connauton is also nothing like Salo or Garrison. Probably more like a Cam Barker.

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11-27-2012, 08:05 PM
  #7
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Not good.

There's four players (Kassian, Jensen, Tanev, Corrado) who I see having a decent chance of becoming impact players in the NHL. Everyone else has flaws.

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11-27-2012, 08:24 PM
  #8
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IMHO with his speed, size and hands there is no way Kassian does not become a star. Jansen I put in that category as well and he has a knack to score goals which is always good.

The rest I am really ambivalent to cautiously optimistic. There is not a lot there to get super excited about but there are some players who were later picks that do have some real upside potentially. I don't think it's such the horrible picture people paint. Given the age of our core group with free agency always an option and good young players coming up the lineup, it's not that bad.

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11-27-2012, 08:48 PM
  #9
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I'll do my top 3 right now. Might continue my list later. This is based on how I feel our prospects will turn out.

01. Nicklas Jensen (Outlook: First line Winger) - Jensen to me has all the hallmarks of a star NHL player. I think the fact that he's Danish let him slide a couple spots to us (similar to how Kopitar slid a bit because he's Slovenian). He has all the tools to be a very, very good NHL player. I expect he'll be the gem of our drafting over the last few years, and one of the guys to eventually fill part of the hole the Sedins retiring will cause.
Peak season projection
: 35G 45A 80PTS

02. Zack Kassian (Outlook: First/second line tweener) - Kassian has the most impressive tool set of any Canucks prospect, however, I think Jensen edges him based on consistency. I feel like Kassian might struggle a bit to play the style of game needed night in and night out to let him put up huge numbers. I think he'll post one or two pretty monster seasons over the course of his career, but will consistently be more of a fringe first liner/elite second liner.
Peak season projection: 40G 30A 70PTS

03. Eddie Lack (Outlook: Average-Good starting NHL goaltender) - Aside from the start of this year, Lack has looked downright dominant at the AHL level, posting very similar numbers to Schneider's time in the AHL. It remains to be seen how Lack's AHL success will translate to the NHL level, but his size and skill set give him every opportunity to start in the NHL. I don't think he'll end up as good as Schneider seems to be, but he'll turn into a serviceable starting NHL goalie.
Peak season projection: 35W .923SV%

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Old
11-27-2012, 09:34 PM
  #10
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Player: G-A-TP Projected Comparison (Max Potential)
Jensen: 30-25-55 Johan Franzen-esque player.(Loui Eriksson)
Kassian: 22-30-52 Scott Hartnell-esque player(Todd Bertuzzi)
Schroeder: 20-40-60 Mikhail Grabovski-esque player.(Mikhail Grabovski[boom/bust])*
Connauton: 5-20-25 Cody Franson-esque player.(JM Liles)
Tanev: 3-15-18 Rob Scuderi-esque player(Dan Hamhuis)

Haven't seen enough of Corrado, and goaltenders are a crapshoot, so no Lack either.

*Possible chance he ends up like Darren Helm if stuck on our third line.


Last edited by Vankiller Whale: 11-27-2012 at 10:01 PM.
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11-27-2012, 10:03 PM
  #11
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I'll go with prospects, although to be frank, the question confuses me.

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11-27-2012, 10:12 PM
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I'll go with prospects, although to be frank, the question confuses me.
our not or

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11-28-2012, 12:33 AM
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Kassian and Jenson both seem to have the potential to be 50-60 point 2nd line forwards and a fairly high likelihood of reaching that potential.

Schroeder ... I dunno, shows ability but there isn't exactly a huge place in the sport for a tiny center that has trouble generating offense. Suspect he might have a Wellwood-ish career as a 40-point stopgap #2 center. Better skater than Wellwood though.

Gaunce might have Brooks Laich upside as a #2 center who is below-average offensively but above-average defensively for the role. I'm not a huge fan and suspect the most likely outcome is that he's a big space-filling low-impact bottom 6 body.

Rest of the forward group is pretty much crap. Interested to see how Mallet develops over the next couple years. Rodin has ridiculous straight-line skating ability in open ice but no ability whatsoever to use it effectively.

On defense, Corrado and Tanev are both good bets to become middling #3-#5 two-way NHL defenders.

Everything else on the blueline is crap. I don't see Connauton ever making it - he's improved defensively at the AHL level but still can't generate much offense there and will never be competent defensively at the NHL level. Sauve is a 3rd-pairing AHL guy in his 3rd season at that level.

If we get one serviceable player out of the prospects past our top 4 forward guys and top 2 defenders, that would be a decent result. It thins out really badly after the top group. Hopefully one or two of the newer late picks distinguishes themselves over the next 18 months.

Lack looks promising, think he'll be an NHL goalie. How good he'll be is a total crapshoot, as is always the case with goalies. Could be a Rinne, could be a Calgary Tower.

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11-28-2012, 02:09 AM
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our not or
Said or when I posted

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11-28-2012, 03:28 AM
  #15
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Schroeder ... I dunno, shows ability but there isn't exactly a huge place in the sport for a tiny center that has trouble generating offense. Suspect he might have a Wellwood-ish career as a 40-point stopgap #2 center. Better skater than Wellwood though.


I'm still unsure if Schroeder has trouble generating offense. His environment and playstyle have a lot to do with it. Perhaps when he is taken off the Wolves he will show better at the NHL level, much like Hodgson?



His utility comes down to his defense IMO. If he is ever used in Dzone situations in the NHL, as he has been in the AHL, then he becomes far more useful than a stop gap... The jury is still out on this guy. A 50~ point, PK capable C is a nice thing to have.



Quote:
If we get one serviceable player out of the prospects past our top 4 forward guys and top 2 defenders, that would be a decent result. It thins out really badly after the top group. Hopefully one or two of the newer late picks distinguishes themselves over the next 18 months.


I agree, though I'm more optimistic about the D. Andersson has had a "good" transition to the AHL ice, Price has yet to arrive, as does McNally, same with McEneny and Polasek will show better (IMO) once back in the AHL, and finally Tommernes is top pair in the SEL. There's more to look forward to there.



But yes, the forwards improving beyond the top 4 depends largely on Labate and Mallet doing something, or Rodin figuring it out. Sweatt could make it as a grinder... Not the best crop for sure. That said, I'm hoping any Lu trade will help remedy that situation.

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11-28-2012, 12:27 PM
  #16
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I think Canucks have done a very good job with their late 1st rounders and had initial success with free agent prospects (Tanev, lack, sweatt).

What are the odds though of a non 1st round pick becoming a regular top 9 / top 6 in the NHL if we guess they represent ~40% of the total, 1 in 20?*

Those are long odds - its normal to have a lot of failed prospects and not so easy to sort the talent from the "crap", unless you let the process run its course.

Those odds though do "get worse" by having fewer drafted prospects, not enough contract slots to sign free agent prospects (I noticed quite a few of the best AHL rookies are free agents), exclude entire regions like western Canada, and have too few prospect slots on the AHL affiliate (wolves have 14 vets!)

Necessity is the mother of invention - if Canucks' farm club could only have prospects on its roster, and a certain # had to come from each region (eg. western canada) for example, the team's hand would be forced on many of these issues.




* they seem to be much better for European skaters


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11-28-2012, 04:20 PM
  #17
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It's all about development and how they get better, it always been. Just because they are good or crap right now, doesn't matter. It's about growth. Now that being said, Evan McEneny seems like a interesting project and we'll see more of him in the next 2-3 years whether or not he can play on a consistent level. Still, not bad for a guy who wasn't even drafted. For a guy that has exceeded expectation is another blueliner in Corrado who was thought to be nothing, has become one of the top guys in the OHL, and has become a legit prospect. Much like McNally. Where as the a guy like, say Steven Anthony who was thought to something earlier on, has now stumbled and doesn't look like he'll have a hockey career.

Mallet at the age he is, is likely going to be better than Rodin. We can just look at Kesler and Hansen's stats and their career paths and see the rapid growth. Hopefully, Mallet will progress like them.

Jensen is much better than Moulsen. Better damn hope Jensen doesn't turn out to be like Moulsen.


Last edited by Rey: 11-28-2012 at 04:33 PM.
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11-28-2012, 04:29 PM
  #18
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His utility comes down to his defense IMO. If he is ever used in Dzone situations in the NHL, as he has been in the AHL, then he becomes far more useful than a stop gap... The jury is still out on this guy. A 50~ point, PK capable C is a nice thing to have.
Schroeder's lack of size will probably prevent him from having that kind of impact at the NHL level. Two-way forwards are big and strong as well as fast and tenacious. Defensive situations at the NHL level requires a minimum size to handle the physicality and dish it out. I don't see how Schroeder has or ever will have the frame needed.

Sadly, he'll need to produce on the wing or at center in a top-6 role or end up an ineffective tweener. Can't say I'm all that optimistic but you never know.

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11-28-2012, 04:52 PM
  #19
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Originally Posted by Cocoa Crisp View Post
Schroeder's lack of size will probably prevent him from having that kind of impact at the NHL level. Two-way forwards are big and strong as well as fast and tenacious. Defensive situations at the NHL level requires a minimum size to handle the physicality and dish it out. I don't see how Schroeder has or ever will have the frame needed.

Sadly, he'll need to produce on the wing or at center in a top-6 role or end up an ineffective tweener. Can't say I'm all that optimistic but you never know.
While i agree its an uphill battle but his leg strength for his size and smarts gives him an opportunity like wellwood to a pretty useful third liner.. he wont be an impact player though but he`ll be useful and a third liner IMO

Also guys like Todd Marchant, etc

3rd line is nothign to scoff at

Wellwood wasn`t as strong, nor as fast.


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11-28-2012, 04:57 PM
  #20
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Originally Posted by Rey View Post
It's all about development and how they get better, it always been. Just because they are good or crap right now, doesn't matter. It's about growth. Now that being said, Evan McEneny seems like a interesting project and we'll see more of him in the next 2-3 years whether or not he can play on a consistent level. Still, not bad for a guy who wasn't even drafted. For a guy that has exceeded expectation is another blueliner in Corrado who was thought to be nothing, has become one of the top guys in the OHL, and has become a legit prospect. Much like McNally. Where as the a guy like, say Steven Anthony who was thought to something earlier on, has now stumbled and doesn't look like he'll have a hockey career.

Mallet at the age he is, is likely going to be better than Rodin. We can just look at Kesler and Hansen's stats and their career paths and see the rapid growth. Hopefully, Mallet will progress like them.

Jensen is much better than Moulsen. Better damn hope Jensen doesn't turn out to be like Moulsen.
You mean the same Matt Moulsen that's scored 30+ goals in each of the last 3 seasons? Yeah, I'd hate to see Jensen turn out like that, it'd be tragic.

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11-28-2012, 05:43 PM
  #21
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Pretty muchagree on the posts here, except:

would love to see Kassian Jensen Schroeder ... think they could compliment each other very well. Kassian to scare the **** out of the opponents, Jensen the big calm guy who can finish and make plays and Schroeder the pivot who can find the open body. I would love to see them get some time together this season,... in 3 - 4 years this could be an excellent 2nd line. any reason why Schroeder couldn't end up like Morrison on the WCE? You can see the parallels ...

and I still think Mallet could be one of those intense Burrows Rypien type guys whos really annoying to play against, protects his teammates and still manages to get 20-25 = 45 pts.

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11-28-2012, 05:52 PM
  #22
Bleach Clean
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Originally Posted by Cocoa Crisp View Post
Schroeder's lack of size will probably prevent him from having that kind of impact at the NHL level. Two-way forwards are big and strong as well as fast and tenacious. Defensive situations at the NHL level requires a minimum size to handle the physicality and dish it out. I don't see how Schroeder has or ever will have the frame needed.

Sadly, he'll need to produce on the wing or at center in a top-6 role or end up an ineffective tweener. Can't say I'm all that optimistic but you never know.



Pseudo expressed my feeling on it in saying that Wellwood wasn't the traditional 3rd line defensive forward but did pretty well in the underlying numbers in that regard. Same thing with Raymond - a lack of size and but good defensively, that's going to be enough for a guy like Schroeder.



In fact, what Raymond is doing now, if Schroeder can replicate that to be an option on the PK, he'll stick. Just be a defensive option on the PK. It should mean that he has the coach's trust and should mean that he has overcome his lack of size to be reliable defensively.



Edit: The BVS comparable of Morrison would be ideal for JS.

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11-28-2012, 07:03 PM
  #23
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Yep, look at Wellwood who wasn't your traditional mold of a 3C but his ability to drive play was very underrated while here. He never killed penalties though, hopefully JS can establish himself in that role if he makes it.

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11-28-2012, 07:07 PM
  #24
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Yep, look at Wellwood who wasn't your traditional mold of a 3C but his ability to drive play was very underrated while here. He never killed penalties though, hopefully JS can establish himself in that role if he makes it.
only reason he didn`t was due to his lack of speed. Speed is very important as a forward on the PK for most forwards

JS has that

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11-28-2012, 07:08 PM
  #25
vanuck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pseudonymous01 View Post
only reason he didn`t was due to his lack of speed. Speed is very important as a forward on the PK for most forwards

JS has that
I suspect his conditioning had something to do with it as well, something that shouldn't be an issue for JS.

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